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Unit 1
Introduction to Natural Hazards



          EES A05 H3

        Marco A. Belmont
Nevado del Ruiz, Colombia, 1985
• In 1845, the Colombian volcano erupted
  and a mudflow killed approximately 1,000
  people.
• Deposits from this event produced rich soil
  in the Lagunilla River valley, enticing
  people to move there and establish farms.
• The town of Aramero became the
  agricultural centre for the valley and in 1985
  had grown to a population of 23,000.
Nevado del Ruiz
• On November 13,
  1985, a small
  eruption of the
  Colombian volcano
  produced another
  mudflow that buried
  Aramero.
  – 21,000 people death
  – $200 million in
    property damage
Nevado del Ruiz
Nevado del Ruiz
Nevado del Ruiz
Nevado del Ruiz
• A review of the history of Nevado del Ruiz
  shows that:
  – The 1985 eruption and mudflows were
    predicted, the hazard identified, and the risk
    evaluated.
  – Population growth since the last mudflow in
    1845 greatly increased the number of people at
    risk
  – The tremendous loss of life could have been
    significantly reduced if warnings had been
    heeded.
Importance of studying natural
            hazards
• The world can experience devastating
  natural events like earthquakes, tsunamis,
  volcanic eruptions, hurricanes, tornados,
  etc.
• This events are the result of enormous
  forces that are at work both inside and on
  the surface of our planet.
• In this course we will study these forces,
  how they interact with our civilization, and
  how we can better adjust to their effects.
Internal and External Processes

 • Process.- the physical, chemical, and
   biological ways by which events such
   as volcanic eruptions, earthquakes,
   landslides, and floods, affect Earth’s
   surface.
Internal Processes
• Some processes, such
  as volcanic eruptions
  and earthquakes, are
  the result of internal
  forces deep within
  Earth.
• Most of these internal
  processes are
  explained by the theory
  of plate tectonics.
External Processes
• Other processes associated with natural
  hazards result from external forces that are
  at or very near Earth’s surface.
• An example of these external processes is
  the fact that the energy from the Sun
  warms the Earth’s atmosphere and surface,
  producing winds and evaporating water.
External Processes
• Wind circulation and water evaporation are
  responsible for forming Earth’s climatic
  zones and for driving the movement of
  water in the hydrologic cycle.
• These external forces are in turn directly
  related to hazardous processes, such as
  violent storms and flooding, as well as
  coastal erosion.
Internal and External Processes
• Therefore, hazardous processes result from
  internal heating of Earth or from external
  energy from the Sun.
• The energy released by natural processes
  varies greatly. For example:
  – the average tornado expends about 1,000
    times as much energy as a lighting bolt,
  – the volcanic eruption of Mount St. Helens in
    May 1980 expended approximately 1,000,000
    times as much energy as a lighting bolt.
Internal and External Processes
• Events such as earthquakes, volcanoes,
  floods, and natural fires are natural
  processes that have been occurring on
  Earth’s surface since long before it was
  populated by humans.
• These natural processes become
  hazardous when human beings live or work
  in their path.
Hazard, Risk, Disaster, and
          Catastrophe

• A natural hazard is any natural process
  that poses a threat to human life or
  property.
  – The event itself is not a hazard; rather, a
    process becomes a hazard when it threatens
    human interests.
Hazard, Risk, Disaster, and
           Catastrophe

• Risk may be expressed as the probability
  that a destructive event may occur
  multiplied by the event’s likely impact on
  people and property.
• Risk thus integrates hazard and social
  vulnerability.
Hazard, Risk, Disaster, and
          Catastrophe
•
• A natural disaster is the effect of a hazard
  in society, usually as an event that occurs
  over a limited time span in a defined
  geographic area.
  – The term disaster is used when the interaction
    between humans and a natural process results
    in significant property damage, injuries, or loss
    of life.
Hazard, Risk, Disaster, and
          Catastrophe

• A natural catastrophe, simply put, is a
  massive disaster, requiring significant
  expenditure of time and money for
  recovery.
Major hazards in the USA
(not including blizzards and ice storms)
Example of a disaster
Example of a disaster
Death and damage caused by
         natural hazards
• Natural hazards vary greatly in their
  potential to cause a catastrophe.
  – Floods, hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes,
    volcanic eruptions, and large wildfires are the
    hazards more likely to create a catastrophe.
  – Landslides have only a moderate catastrophe
    potential because they generally affect a small
    area. Drought also has a moderate potential
    because although it may cover a large area,
    there is plenty of warning time before its worst
    effects are felt.
  – Hazards with low catastrophe potential include
    coastal erosion, frost, and lightning.
Death and damage caused by
       natural hazards
Role of History in Understanding
            Hazards
• A fundamental principle of understanding
  hazards is that they are repetitive events.
• Knowledge of historic events and recent
  geologic history of an area is vital to our
  understanding and assessment of the
  hazard.
• Linking the prehistoric and historic records
  extends our perspective of time when we
  study repetitive natural events.
Role of History in Understanding
            Hazards
• To understand the nature and extent of a
  natural hazard, we must study in detail its
  historic occurrence as well as any geologic
  features that it may produce or affect.
• Any prediction of the future occurrence and
  effects of a hazard will be more accurate if
  we can combine information about historic
  and prehistoric behaviour with a knowledge
  of present conditions and recent past
  events, including land-use changes.
Geologic Cycle
• Geologic conditions and materials largely govern
  the type, location, and intensity of natural
  processes.
• Continuous processes produce the Earth’s
  material, land, water and atmosphere, necessary
  for our survival. These processes are referred to
  as the geologic cycle, which is actually a group of
  subcycles:
  –   The tectonic cycle
  –   The rock cycle
  –   The hydrologic cycle
  –   Biogeochemical cycles
The tectonic cycle

Earth’s
internal
structure
The
tectonic
cycle
The tectonic cycle
The tectonic cycle
Plate Tectonics
The tectonic cycle
Subduction zone off Canada’s west
              coast
San Andreas Fault
The tectonic cycle
The rock cycle
The hydrologic cycle
The hydrologic cycle
The hydrologic cycle
Biogeochemical cycles
Fundamental concepts for understanding
     natural processes as hazards
1. Hazards can be predicted through scientific
   analysis.
2. Risk analysis is an important element of
   understanding the effects of hazardous
   processes.
3. Linkages exist among different natural hazards
   and between hazards and the physical
   environment.
4. Damage from natural disasters is increasing.
5. Damage and loss of life from natural disasters
   can be minimized.
1. Hazards can be predicted
  through scientific analysis

• Science and natural hazards
• Hazardous processes are natural
• Prediction and warning
Hazardous processes are natural
Prediction and warning
• The effects of a hazardous event can be
  reduced if it can be forecast and a warning
  issued. This involve:
  – Identifying the location of a hazard
  – Determining the probability that an event of a
    given magnitude will occur
  – Identifying any precursor events, predicting the
    event, and issuing a warning
Prediction and warning
2. Risk analysis is an important
      element of understanding the
    effects of hazardous processes.
• The risk of a particular event is defined as
  the product of the probability of that event
  occurring times the consequences should it
  occur.
• Determining acceptable risk is complicated.
3. Linkages exist among different
  natural hazards and between
     hazards and the physical
          environment.
• Linkages between natural process that are
  hazardous to people generally fall into two
  categories:
  – Many hazards themselves are linked
  – Natural hazards are linked to earth materials
4. Damage from natural
        disasters is increasing.
• Examples of disasters in densely populated
  areas
• Human population growth
• Magnitude and frequency of hazardous
  events
Human population growth
Population growth and the future
5. Damage and loss of life from
     natural disasters can be
            minimized
• Reactive response: impact and recovery
  from disasters.
  – Direct and indirect effects
• Proactive response (Anticipatory response):
  avoiding and adjusting to hazards
Reactive response: impact and
   recovery from disasters
Proactive response (anticipatory)

• Proactive response: avoiding and adjusting
  to hazards
  – Land use planning
  – Insurance
  – Evacuation
  – Disaster preparedness
  – Artificial control of natural processes
Many Hazards Provide a Natural
      Service Function
Many Hazards Provide a Natural
      Service Function
Climate Change and Natural
              Hazards
• There is strong evidence that on a global
  scale Earth’s climate is now warmer than in
  the previous 40 years since records began
• The 1990s appear to be the warmest
  decade in the last 1,000 years
Climate Change and Natural
             Hazards
• Mean sea level has risen by between 10 to
  20 cm from 1860 to 2000.
• Snow cover has decreased by 10% since
  the 1960s.
• Evidence of thawing of permafrost.
Climate Change and Natural
               Hazards
• Evidence of thawing of permafrost.
Climate Change and Natural
             Hazards
• Extreme weather events such as drought,
  floods, and storms are likely to become
  more frequent and more intense in the
  future.
• Since 1970s, El Niño events have
  increased in frequency, magnitude and
  duration.
Unit+1.+Intro+To+Nat+Hazards+Eesa05
Signals of Climate Change
• Global warming is projected to
  increase both temperature and
  rainfall at high latitudes and high
  elevations.
• Migration of species
• Retreat of glaciers
• Rise of sea level
Potential health impacts of climate
             change
• Problems associated with other global
  changes:
  – In 1997-1998, El Niño brought widespread
    respiratory illnesses to Indonesia and Brazil
    due to haze from uncontrolled forest fires.
  – After hurricane Mitch in Central America
    (1998), deforested areas experience flooding
    and landslides, and the aftermath spawning
    clusters of water-, insect- and rodent-borne
    diseases (cholera, malaria, dengue fever, and
    leptospirosis)
References
• Natural hazards: Earth's processes as hazards,
  disasters, and catastrophes – Canadian Edition.
  Keller, Edward A., Blodgett, Robert H., and
  Clague John J. Pearson Prentice Hall, 2007.
• Dangerous Earth: An introduction to geological
  hazards. Murck BW, Skinner BJ, and Porter SC.
  John Wiley & Sons Inc. N.Y. 1997.
• Life support: the environment and human health.
  Michael McCally. The MIT press. Cambridge,
  2002.

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Unit+1.+Intro+To+Nat+Hazards+Eesa05

  • 1. Unit 1 Introduction to Natural Hazards EES A05 H3 Marco A. Belmont
  • 2. Nevado del Ruiz, Colombia, 1985 • In 1845, the Colombian volcano erupted and a mudflow killed approximately 1,000 people. • Deposits from this event produced rich soil in the Lagunilla River valley, enticing people to move there and establish farms. • The town of Aramero became the agricultural centre for the valley and in 1985 had grown to a population of 23,000.
  • 3. Nevado del Ruiz • On November 13, 1985, a small eruption of the Colombian volcano produced another mudflow that buried Aramero. – 21,000 people death – $200 million in property damage
  • 7. Nevado del Ruiz • A review of the history of Nevado del Ruiz shows that: – The 1985 eruption and mudflows were predicted, the hazard identified, and the risk evaluated. – Population growth since the last mudflow in 1845 greatly increased the number of people at risk – The tremendous loss of life could have been significantly reduced if warnings had been heeded.
  • 8. Importance of studying natural hazards • The world can experience devastating natural events like earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, hurricanes, tornados, etc. • This events are the result of enormous forces that are at work both inside and on the surface of our planet. • In this course we will study these forces, how they interact with our civilization, and how we can better adjust to their effects.
  • 9. Internal and External Processes • Process.- the physical, chemical, and biological ways by which events such as volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, landslides, and floods, affect Earth’s surface.
  • 10. Internal Processes • Some processes, such as volcanic eruptions and earthquakes, are the result of internal forces deep within Earth. • Most of these internal processes are explained by the theory of plate tectonics.
  • 11. External Processes • Other processes associated with natural hazards result from external forces that are at or very near Earth’s surface. • An example of these external processes is the fact that the energy from the Sun warms the Earth’s atmosphere and surface, producing winds and evaporating water.
  • 12. External Processes • Wind circulation and water evaporation are responsible for forming Earth’s climatic zones and for driving the movement of water in the hydrologic cycle. • These external forces are in turn directly related to hazardous processes, such as violent storms and flooding, as well as coastal erosion.
  • 13. Internal and External Processes • Therefore, hazardous processes result from internal heating of Earth or from external energy from the Sun. • The energy released by natural processes varies greatly. For example: – the average tornado expends about 1,000 times as much energy as a lighting bolt, – the volcanic eruption of Mount St. Helens in May 1980 expended approximately 1,000,000 times as much energy as a lighting bolt.
  • 14. Internal and External Processes • Events such as earthquakes, volcanoes, floods, and natural fires are natural processes that have been occurring on Earth’s surface since long before it was populated by humans. • These natural processes become hazardous when human beings live or work in their path.
  • 15. Hazard, Risk, Disaster, and Catastrophe • A natural hazard is any natural process that poses a threat to human life or property. – The event itself is not a hazard; rather, a process becomes a hazard when it threatens human interests.
  • 16. Hazard, Risk, Disaster, and Catastrophe • Risk may be expressed as the probability that a destructive event may occur multiplied by the event’s likely impact on people and property. • Risk thus integrates hazard and social vulnerability.
  • 17. Hazard, Risk, Disaster, and Catastrophe • • A natural disaster is the effect of a hazard in society, usually as an event that occurs over a limited time span in a defined geographic area. – The term disaster is used when the interaction between humans and a natural process results in significant property damage, injuries, or loss of life.
  • 18. Hazard, Risk, Disaster, and Catastrophe • A natural catastrophe, simply put, is a massive disaster, requiring significant expenditure of time and money for recovery.
  • 19. Major hazards in the USA (not including blizzards and ice storms)
  • 20. Example of a disaster
  • 21. Example of a disaster
  • 22. Death and damage caused by natural hazards • Natural hazards vary greatly in their potential to cause a catastrophe. – Floods, hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and large wildfires are the hazards more likely to create a catastrophe. – Landslides have only a moderate catastrophe potential because they generally affect a small area. Drought also has a moderate potential because although it may cover a large area, there is plenty of warning time before its worst effects are felt. – Hazards with low catastrophe potential include coastal erosion, frost, and lightning.
  • 23. Death and damage caused by natural hazards
  • 24. Role of History in Understanding Hazards • A fundamental principle of understanding hazards is that they are repetitive events. • Knowledge of historic events and recent geologic history of an area is vital to our understanding and assessment of the hazard. • Linking the prehistoric and historic records extends our perspective of time when we study repetitive natural events.
  • 25. Role of History in Understanding Hazards • To understand the nature and extent of a natural hazard, we must study in detail its historic occurrence as well as any geologic features that it may produce or affect. • Any prediction of the future occurrence and effects of a hazard will be more accurate if we can combine information about historic and prehistoric behaviour with a knowledge of present conditions and recent past events, including land-use changes.
  • 26. Geologic Cycle • Geologic conditions and materials largely govern the type, location, and intensity of natural processes. • Continuous processes produce the Earth’s material, land, water and atmosphere, necessary for our survival. These processes are referred to as the geologic cycle, which is actually a group of subcycles: – The tectonic cycle – The rock cycle – The hydrologic cycle – Biogeochemical cycles
  • 33. Subduction zone off Canada’s west coast
  • 41. Fundamental concepts for understanding natural processes as hazards 1. Hazards can be predicted through scientific analysis. 2. Risk analysis is an important element of understanding the effects of hazardous processes. 3. Linkages exist among different natural hazards and between hazards and the physical environment. 4. Damage from natural disasters is increasing. 5. Damage and loss of life from natural disasters can be minimized.
  • 42. 1. Hazards can be predicted through scientific analysis • Science and natural hazards • Hazardous processes are natural • Prediction and warning
  • 44. Prediction and warning • The effects of a hazardous event can be reduced if it can be forecast and a warning issued. This involve: – Identifying the location of a hazard – Determining the probability that an event of a given magnitude will occur – Identifying any precursor events, predicting the event, and issuing a warning
  • 46. 2. Risk analysis is an important element of understanding the effects of hazardous processes. • The risk of a particular event is defined as the product of the probability of that event occurring times the consequences should it occur. • Determining acceptable risk is complicated.
  • 47. 3. Linkages exist among different natural hazards and between hazards and the physical environment. • Linkages between natural process that are hazardous to people generally fall into two categories: – Many hazards themselves are linked – Natural hazards are linked to earth materials
  • 48. 4. Damage from natural disasters is increasing. • Examples of disasters in densely populated areas • Human population growth • Magnitude and frequency of hazardous events
  • 51. 5. Damage and loss of life from natural disasters can be minimized • Reactive response: impact and recovery from disasters. – Direct and indirect effects • Proactive response (Anticipatory response): avoiding and adjusting to hazards
  • 52. Reactive response: impact and recovery from disasters
  • 53. Proactive response (anticipatory) • Proactive response: avoiding and adjusting to hazards – Land use planning – Insurance – Evacuation – Disaster preparedness – Artificial control of natural processes
  • 54. Many Hazards Provide a Natural Service Function
  • 55. Many Hazards Provide a Natural Service Function
  • 56. Climate Change and Natural Hazards • There is strong evidence that on a global scale Earth’s climate is now warmer than in the previous 40 years since records began • The 1990s appear to be the warmest decade in the last 1,000 years
  • 57. Climate Change and Natural Hazards • Mean sea level has risen by between 10 to 20 cm from 1860 to 2000. • Snow cover has decreased by 10% since the 1960s. • Evidence of thawing of permafrost.
  • 58. Climate Change and Natural Hazards • Evidence of thawing of permafrost.
  • 59. Climate Change and Natural Hazards • Extreme weather events such as drought, floods, and storms are likely to become more frequent and more intense in the future. • Since 1970s, El Niño events have increased in frequency, magnitude and duration.
  • 61. Signals of Climate Change • Global warming is projected to increase both temperature and rainfall at high latitudes and high elevations. • Migration of species • Retreat of glaciers • Rise of sea level
  • 62. Potential health impacts of climate change • Problems associated with other global changes: – In 1997-1998, El Niño brought widespread respiratory illnesses to Indonesia and Brazil due to haze from uncontrolled forest fires. – After hurricane Mitch in Central America (1998), deforested areas experience flooding and landslides, and the aftermath spawning clusters of water-, insect- and rodent-borne diseases (cholera, malaria, dengue fever, and leptospirosis)
  • 63. References • Natural hazards: Earth's processes as hazards, disasters, and catastrophes – Canadian Edition. Keller, Edward A., Blodgett, Robert H., and Clague John J. Pearson Prentice Hall, 2007. • Dangerous Earth: An introduction to geological hazards. Murck BW, Skinner BJ, and Porter SC. John Wiley & Sons Inc. N.Y. 1997. • Life support: the environment and human health. Michael McCally. The MIT press. Cambridge, 2002.