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Probability Presentation
- 1. THE BODY IN THE BAG Presenters: Dina Gaughan, Megan Poole, & Amy Shuleski February 24, 2010 MBA 512
- 2. Man Finds large canvas bag floating in river Preliminary investigation reveals body Sex/Race/Age Unknown Body in the Bag
- 3. Victim and Offender – Adults over 18yrs of age Victim/Offender Relationships 2003 Uniform Crime Reports – FBI http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/03cius.htm Analysis Profiles Victim Offender Joint Waiting on Forensics Analysis Identify Preliminary Profile
- 8. P (A or B) = P (A) + P (B)
- 10. P (A&B) = P (A) * P (B)Probability Formulas
- 11. (Classical Method) Race: White: 3,562 / 6,911 51.5% Black: 3,098 / 6,911 44.8% Other: 195 / 6,911 2.8% Unknown: 56 / 6,911 .8% Sex: Male: 4,987 / 7,024 71% Female: 1,962 / 7,024 27.9% Unknown: 75 / 7,024 1.1% Victim Profile Prediction
- 12. (Addition Rule) White or Black =(3562/6911) + (3098/6911) = 96.4% Male or Female =(4987/7024) + (1962/7024) = 98.9% Victim Profile Prediction
- 13. (Multiplication Rule) White & Male =(3562/6911) * (4987/7024) = 36.6% White & Female =(3098/6911) * (1962/7024) = 14.4% Black & Male =(3098/6911) * (4987/7024) = 31.8% Black & Female =(3098/6911) * (1962/7024) = 12.5% Victim Profile Prediction
- 15. (Classical Method) Race: White: 3,323 / 6,911 48.1% Black: 3,412 / 6,911 49.4% Other: 176 / 6,911 2.5% Unknown: 56 / 6,911 0.8% Sex: Male: 6,220 / 7,024 88.6% Female: 691 / 7,024 9.8% Unknown: 113 / 7,024 1.6% Offender Profile Prediction
- 16. (Addition Rule) White or Black =(3323/6911) + (3412/6911) = 97.5% Male or Female =(6220/7024) + (691/7024) = 98.4% Offender Profile Prediction
- 17. (Multiplication Rule) White & Male = (3323/6911) * (6220/7024) = 42.6% White & Female =(3323/6911) * (691/7024) = 4.7 % Black & Male =(3412/6911) * ( 6220/7024) = 43.7% Black & Female =(3412/6911) * (691/7024) = 4.9% Offender Profile Prediction
- 23. Likelihood of Victim & Offender same sex:
- 26. Unknown: .011 x .016 .02%Joint Profile Prediction
- 28. Male: 62.9% (Agrees with above prediction)Profile Predictions
- 29. No Identification Autopsy In water for 2 weeks Forensics Information Recovered White Female Blonde Hair Mid 30’s No children No jewelry Forensics Analysis - Victim
- 30. Victim Profile Probability did not match the Forensic Analysis Analysis Determined White Female Probabilities White Male – 36.6 % White & Female - 14.4% Forensics Analysis - Victim
- 31. Based on Victim’s Race – Likelihood Offender is: White 3,017/3,562 = 84.7 % Black 501/3,562 = 14.1 % Other 44/3,562 = 1.7 % Offender Profile Posting
- 32. Based on Victim’s Sex– Likelihood Offender is: Male 1754/1962 = 89.4 % Female 185/1962 = 9.4 % Unknown 231/1962 = 1.2 % Offender Profile Posting
- 33. (Multiplication Rule) White and Male .847 * .894 = 75.7 % Probability that the Offender is White and Male is 75.7 % Official Offender Profile Posting
- 34. Have you seen this man?If so, dial 911 White Male Questions?