Presentation about impact of new technologies given at the Club of Amsterdam on oct 25th 2007

1. Futureshock Arjen Kamphuis [email_address] Don’t Panic!

2. You see the bigger patterns From a distance …

3. Time 800.000 yr

4. 800.000 yr 7.200 yr Time

5. 800.000 yr 4.000 yr Time

6. 800.000 yr 38 yr Time

7. accelerated change Gradual change current technology What kind of change? Bron: Foresight Institute technical ability Time Are we here in time? Or here?

13. Information and knowledge for everyone vanaf 1440 Vanaf 1967

20. My first computer ... (1977) My computer ... (2006)

21. Moves 0.1 1 10 100 1K 10K 100K 1M 10M CPU power (MIPS) Chess Rating Bernstein , IBM 704, 1957 MacHack , PDP-6, 1966 Belle , 1983 Crazy Blitz , Crazy 1, 1981 Chiptest , 1987 Deep Thought , 1989 Deep Thought II , 1991 Deep Blue , 1997 Chess 4.0 , CDC 6400, 1973 MacHack , PDP-10, 1970 Chess 4.6 , Cyber 176, 1977 Kasparov Grand Master Senior Master Master Class D Class C Class B Class A Expert Quantity = quality ?

22. Evolution of computers Rekenkracht equivalent per $1000 Computer 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 Year Million MIPS per $1000 (1997 Dollars) 1000 1 1 / 1000 1 / Million 1 / Billion source: Hans Moravec Monroe Calcu- lator Burroughs Class 16 IBM Tabulator Colossus ENIAC IBM 704 IBM 7090 IBM 1130 CDC 7600 Apple II Mac II Gateway G6-200 Commodore 64 IBM PC Power Tower 180e IBM PS/2 90 Mac Iltx Sun-3 DEC VAX 11/780 SDS 920 IBM 360/75 IBM 1620 1995 Trend 1985 Trend 1965 Trend Apple G4 P4 G5 PS3

23. "Dave Striver loved the university - its ivy-covered clocktowers, its ancient and sturdy brick, and its sun-splashed verdant greens and eager youth. The university, contrary to popular opinion, is far from free of the stark unforgiving trials of the business world: academia has its own tests, and some are as merciless as any in the marketplace. A prime example is the dissertation defense: to earn the Ph.D., to become a doctor, one must pass an oral examination on one's dissertation. This was a test Professor Edward Hart enjoyed giving."

33. Human or machine - does it matter?

34. economics: the science of choice under scarcity

36. Self-replicating fuelcell

37. Nanotechnology: don’t build, grow

38. Bron: Foresight Institute

39. Bron: Nanomedicine

41. Strategic impact Operational impact

42. Do something relevant

44. Take some distance