Ten Dominant Trends In Technology 2008 Fall 2008 Version

Ten Trends in Technology
That Will Shape How We Plan and
Execute Beyond 2008

(c) 2008 D.W.Berkus, All Rights Reserved

A Humbling but Short History of
Futurology…
 1899: “Everything that can be invented has been
invented.” – Charles Duell, U.S. Commissioner of Patents
 1900: “There is nothing new to be discovered in
physics now.” – Lord Kelvin
 1905: “E=mc2”
 1923: “There is no likelihood man can ever tap the
power of the atom.” – Nobel Prize-winning physicist Robert
Millikan
 1923: “Who wants to hear actors talk?” – Harry Warner


A Humbling but Short History of
Futurology…
 1943: “The future market for computers is about five
or six.” – Thomas Watson, Sr.
 1965: “The concept is interesting and well formed.
But in order to earn better than a ‘C’, the idea must
be feasible.” – Long forgotten Yale professor
 1968: “I am a HAL 9000 computer, production
number three. I became operational at the HAL
plant in Urbana Illinois on January 12th 1997quot;
 1972: “There’s no reason anyone would want a
computer in their home.” – Ken Olson


We must remember that…
 “It’s
tough to make predictions,
especially about the future.”
Yogi Berra


Our theme for today:

INNOVATION…
Technology will cause
“game-changing”
behaviors in our
business or personal
lives.


Why do we obsess over innovation?
“Every day we are saying,
‘How can we keep this customer
happy?’ How can we get ahead in
innovation by doing this?
Because if we don’t, somebody
else will.”
– Bill Gates


But then again…

 “You can observe a lot just by
watching...”
Yogi Berra


So Here Come
Ten Trends That Will Shape
2008 & Beyond…

…And their impact on how you
lead
manage
work and
compete…

1. The GROWING SCOPE of the INTERNET

In three years, 20 typical
California households will
generate as much traffic as
the entire Internet did in
1995.

Source: Charles Giancarlo, San Francisco Chronicle, 12/14/06


Every week 12MM people join the Internet,
most from outside the USA.
 Unintended consequences of the Internet’s
expansion:
 Big media transformation
 Birth of the long tail
 Social networking
 Democratization of content
 Power to the artist
 Disrupted distribution


22% of the world population now
Internet enabled – June 30th, 2008
WORLD INTERNET USAGE AND POPULATION STATISTICS

Internet Usage Usage
Population Internet Users % Population
World Regions Usage, % of Growth
( 2008 Est.) Dec/31, 2000 ( Penetration )
Latest Data World 2000-2008

Africa 955,206,348 4,514,400 51,065,630 5.3 % 3.5 % 1,031.2 %

Asia 3,776,181,949 114,304,000 578,538,257 15.3 % 39.5 % 406.1 %

Europe 800,401,065 105,096,093 384,633,765 48.1 % 26.3 % 266.0 %

Middle East 197,090,443 3,284,800 41,939,200 21.3 % 2.9 % 1,176.8 %

North America 337,167,248 108,096,800 248,241,969 73.6 % 17.0 % 129.6 %

Latin
576,091,673 18,068,919 139,009,209 24.1 % 9.5 % 669.3 %
America/Caribbean

Oceania / Australia 33,981,562 7,620,480 20,204,331 59.5 % 1.4 % 165.1 %

WORLD TOTAL 6,676,120,288 360,985,492 1,463,632,361 21.9 % 100.0 % 305.5 %


Users on the Internet by REGION


Users on the Internet 6/30/08 by LANGUAGE


Penetration Percentage of the Internet by REGION


156,000,000 hostnames, 66,000,000 are active

Total Sites Across All Domains August 1995 - December 2007



How can your enterprise
capture at least its share
of this expanding
marketplace?


2. The Paradise of CHOICE
 Consumer PULL, much less producer PUSH
 End of the “hit-driven” economy in TV, music, movies, books
 TIME and PLACE SHIFTING (TIVO, SlingBox)
 We are leaving the “information age” and entering the “Age
of Recommendation”
 69% of consumers research products online
 62% look at online peer review
 39% compare price across outlets
 Using engines such as PriceGrabber, TripAdvisor, Shopping.com
 Drives prices down, democratizes search…
 Leads to accelerated product innovation: Want it NOW!
 IP-TV, Podcast network: empowering smaller players.


2. The Paradise of CHOICE

What is your company
doing to respond to this
new empowerment of the
purchaser?


3. The AUDIENCE is the NETWORK
 Democratization of production, distribution and search:
 “Make it”, “Get it out there”, and “Help me find it”
 Make it: PC music, Wikipedia, iMovie: The power of peer
production grows exponentially
 Get it out there: Lulu, MySpace, CraigsList, YouTube, eBay,
Amazon Stores
 Electronic distribution: finally bits not atoms.
 Move the inventory way IN (central warehouse) or to the edge (eBay,
Amazon retailers) or way gone (iTunes)
 Anyone can Sell (Amazon stores, eBay, CraigsList)
 Anyone can publish (peer production: LuLu, YouTube, MySpace,
WikiPedia)
 Anyone can help me find it (search): The Wisdom of Crowds:
TripAdvisor shopping bots, niche search engines.


3. The AUDIENCE is the NETWORK

How are you tapping into
this game-changing
marketing opportunity?


4. Increasing Computer Power
Drives Changes In Human Behavior
 From emphasis upon productivity over last 25 years…
 To changing the way we
 share experiences
 Communicate
 preserve memories
 access entertainment
 learn, and
 use health care
 Distribution of innovation to resources around the world.
 In the U.S. economy alone up to 12% of all labor activity could be
distributed and networked, from legal to administrative to restructuring
of R&D.
 Cloud computing and “on demand” software (SAAS)


4. Increasing Computer Power
Drives Changes In Human Behavior

What products or
services could you
add that you could
not deliver
‘yesterday’?


5. “I AM THE OFFICE” – Mobile
Computing Changes Our Lives
 Information and communications available everywhere.
 Apple’s iPhone interface will start a revolution in usable
mobile computing devices.
 Video-conferencing becoming a reality
 Japan is the first country to see a reduction in PC purchases
year over year – in favor of mobile devices…
 More than ½ of the people on the planet have cell phones- up
from 12% in 2000 (U.N. Telecoms study)
 Unified communications
 “I have an OFFICE in my pocket.”


5. “I AM THE OFFICE” – Mobile
Computing Changes Our Lives

Have you and your
company taken
advantage of mobility
as a corporate
strategy?


6. Consumer Electronics Spending
Dominated by HDTV, Convergence
 CES Show ’08: 2,700 companies, 140,000 attendees, 140
countries
 “Connected digital home” and “HD video” main trends.
 Digital TV’s now in 56% of U.S. homes – Dec 2007


6. Consumer Electronics Trends (Cont’d)
 250 MM computers were sold in 2007.
 Intel is working on 10x performance at 1/10 the power.
Over a BB transistors on a chip now shipping.
 Gaming leads with US software sales of $7.8B in 2008.
 Video games exceeded US box office receipts for first

time in 2005.
 SINGLE CHIP CPU+VIDEO
 NVIDIA is Forbes’ company of the year

NVIDIA RENDERING OF FACE
for video game. 754 M transistors
In G-Force 8800 GTS (up from
63 M in 2002)


 Wireless electric charging of CE devices and...
 Wireless power itself.

110 volts, 30 amps through the air


 The “Digital home” entertainment servers
centralize content acquisition and storage.

HDTV’s connected to Media center
PC’s will triple again in 2008.
Gaming devices, downloaded
movies and seamless
entertainment


 IP-TVs and WIFI phones are real and growing segment.
 Devices will be driven by voice, gesture and.. Keyboard.
 OLED thin, bright display devices. Fold or roll ‘em.

Readius OLED rollup
Screen device.

Toshiba OLED 1.5” wide HDTV

Fujitsu fabric PC - OLED


6. Consumer Electronics Trends

What is your company
doing to exceed the
expectations of your
newly-sophisticated
consumers?


7. WEB 2.0 Enters the Mainstream


 Young people entering workforce will drive wide
deployment through the enterprise.
 More effective way to communicate.
 Businesses must adapt.
 Facebook as a platform: 55 MM users. May 24th, 2007
launch of open API. Already over 18,000 applications.
Parallel to Internet browser as a container for applications.
One million new users each week, fastest growing group
over 35.
 MySpace (falling from favor quickly). New open code…
 Platforms to watch: LinkedIn, Facebook, Orkut.
 Tools: Ning and Nexo to build your own.



How can you better
communicate with your
stakeholders using new
tools and channels?


8. WEB 3.0 – 4.0 / Way Beyond Search
 Web 3.0: The Semantic or “natural language” Web:
 Attach meta-data to information stored on the Web

 Like a rich card catalog on top of online content
 Turns the web into a relational database
 Make search and unstructured data more accessible
 Try www.powerset.com for an early example


 Web 4.0: The Ubiquitous Web: Connecting intelligence
into a network of smart markets, natural language agents
and more. Agents that know and reason as humans do.



Web 1.0 – Web 4.0: From Nova Spivak, Radar Networks & Mills Davis, Project 10x


8. WEB 3.0 - Way, Way Beyond Search

Does your marketing
message evoke
‘meaning’, not just
‘words’?


9. EVERYTHING TURNS GREEN
 Energy demand will grow 57% by 2030
 US petroleum consumption will continue to rise from 17M
barrels/day in 1973, to 20M in 2006, and to 25M in 2030.
 We have a “perfect storm” for innovation in energy today:
Energy price, volatility, global awareness & climate change
 Every week 12MM people join the Internet, most from outside
the USA.. So…
 Energy required to power the Internet doubles every 5 years.
 35% of all energy in the home now drives computers and TV.
 1/3 of all homes got rid of a CE device in 2007 – half in perfect
working order.
 7% trashed. 9% recycled. 67% resold/gifted. 20% donated.
 Greening I.T.: Minimize energy use; Reduce CO2 emissions;
and minimize electronic waste.

9. EVERYTHING TURNS GREEN

What initiatives has your
company undertaken to
ensure the betterment
of our environment?


10. The CIO becomes a Business Strategist
 An important member of senior team - determining how to invest
capital more effectively to reduce costs, improve productivity and
achieve corporate objectives.
 Process Improvement, not system build-out, will be Job #1
 Division between I.T and operations will diminish, and
 Emphasis on mining vast amounts of corp. data will increase
 Enterprise applications will start losing their luster in favor of SaaS,
mashups, “On Demand” computing.
 IT will reluctantly embrace Web 2.0
 CIOs will turn IT into a operational line organization, not just
guardians and protectors of the network.


10. The CIO becomes a Business Strategist

How are you adapting to
this new reality? What
can you do to improve
your positioning in the
enterprise?


Futurology Revisited (Have we learned anything?)
In 2002 “10 Trends”…
 2009: Electronic banking replaces most cash

 2010: Holistic health care widespread

 2011: Translation software replaces most foreign
language teaching
 2012: Organic farming boom cuts pesticide use by
one-half
 2013: Half of all household waste recycled

 2015: Manufacturing jobs sink to 10% of all U.S. work

 2018: Half of all goods will be sold on-line…


But then again…

“The future ain’t what it
used to be.”
 Yogi Berra


And…
“It may be your sole
purpose in life to serve as
a warning to others.”
 Anonymous


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