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[object Object],[object Object]
The crisis: the science of climate change ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
CO2 emissions linked to energy and linked to economic growth
The challenge: what is the least risky target?  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Business as usual is 5°C; even if we stabilise at current levels; increase is dangerous
Impacts : devastation or can we cope?  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
3-truths: Climate change political and economic challenge ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Drastic reduction needed: For 450 ppm (2°C) reduce  85% by 2050
 
Historical emissions : A tonne of CO2 emitted in 1850 same value as tonne of CO2 emitted in 2005
2 tonnes is what the world can sustain…
1 US citizen = ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
2007: High on rhetoric. Low on action ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
Is India the new villain?  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Decreased 3% only because of decrease of economies under transition. Rich have increased
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Big words and small change
No energy transition made  Little to reduce energy emissions
No more kindergarten approach ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
B. The economics and options for India and the world India: Inventory: 1994
Options exist: re-invent growth. Avoid pollution ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Clean, new and buried coal ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Clean, new and buried coal ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Other ‘coal’ options? Are they clean or viable? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Nuclear ,[object Object],[object Object]
New renewables: still small part of world primary energy supply: less than 0.5%   39% of India’s primary energy comes from renewables – because of chulhas of poor
How will the world re-invent its energy system?
Renewables: Cost – the biggest barrier
Wind energy: make it blow in right direction ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Solar concentrating power ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Re-invent mobility: can India succeed where the world has failed?
Efficiency is not the answer; sufficiency.. Can we restrain cars? In UK, cars became more efficient; emissions increased as people bought more; drove more
Survival vs luxury emissions Biofuels: for vehicles of rich or chulhas of poor?  All corn in US converted to ethanol will substitute 12 per cent of gasoline use. Best option? Or use to leapfrog poor from old renewable to new renewable
Forests: to plant and to avoid cutting ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
C. The framework for action. But.. ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
CDM instrument to make this transition. But designed to fail  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
CDM: Convoluted and small ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
CDM: cheap and corrupt CDM is a market mechanism, not climate action. Cheap options used; no high end transfer of technology. No investment in clean coal.. No investment for poor
Industry hype?  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Agenda for Bali and after: Reform CDM ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Extraordinary crisis, needs big response.. ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Freezing inequity not acceptable ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Not acceptable
Per capita entitlements ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Contract and converge
D. Issues in Bali: a ‘watchlist’ ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
D. Issues in Bali: a ‘watchlist’ ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Our position for Bali++++ ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Design for effective action ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Politics for future ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Otherwise road to ‘common’ hell

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Climate Equity December 2007