Plenum Edmund Thompsonpdf

Strategic Technologies for 2006 and 2016

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Agenda

What are the top 10 technologies an IT
1.
professional needs to know about in 2006?
What are the most disruptive trends and most
2.
significant opportunities arising from emerging
information technology for 2016?

© 2006 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Reproduction of this publication in any form without prior written permission is
Ed Thompson, Gartner
forbidden. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Gartner disclaims all warranties as to
the accuracy, completeness or adequacy of such information. Gartner shall have no liability for errors, omissions or inadequacies in the
Page 1
information contained herein or for interpretations thereof. The reader assumes sole responsibility for the selection of these materials to
achieve its intended results. The opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice.


Conclusion: Top 10 Technologies 2006
Visibility

AJAX Real-time DW Grid Open Source
WiMAX EIM Portals iSCSI SANs
IP Telephony Utility Computing Instant Messaging Bluetooth
Nanocomputing XBRL UWB Personal Search
ZigBee Ontologies Virtualization Mobile Applications
Microcommerce Natural Language Search Micro Fuel Cells e-Ink
Speech Recognition Pervasive Computing 802.11g Trusted Platforms
OLED/LEP Wikis Mesh Networks SOA
Tablet PCs Information Extraction IT Self Service 4G Wireless
Semantic Web Unified Communications Smart Dust Camera Phones
Collective Intelligence Smart Phones Mashup Composite
Technology Peak of Inflated Trough of Slope of Plateau of
Trigger Expectations Disillusionment Enlightenment Productivity

Mainstream
Important Long Range Trends
Virtualization
Web 2.0 — AJAX
Grid Computing
+ Web 2.0 Mashup Composite Model
Service Oriented Architecture
Collective Intelligence
Enterprise Information Mgt
Pervasive computing
Open Source
Personal Search

This presentation highlights important technologies that should be tracked, and which represent major trends. In
the next 18 to 36 months, we will see the risks of early adoption more-clearly identified and reduced. Most of
these technologies exist in some form already, but have become suitable for a wider range of uses.
In certain cases we will split potential uses into categories, only some of which will become mature in this time
frame. By focusing on those categories that will be appropriate for exploitation, high value can be extracted from
the technology without waiting for the full and final maturation of all its aspects and applications. An example
from software-as-services is the applicability of Web services internally, while cross-enterprise deployments
may have to wait for the maturation of authentication and security standards.
This view of maturity is based on the Gartner concept of the Hype Cycle — that every technology and new idea
is subject to distinct phases in its progress, from first elucidation to widespread market adoption. The cycle
moves from the trigger or disclosure up to a Peak of Inflated Expectations, as the concept is widely discussed.
Once actual use begins, the early adopters discover issues and incur failures — demonstrating that the
appropriate use was poorly understood. The bad news drives an overreaction to the Trough of Disillusionment,
until the real results can be sorted into best practices, pitfalls and so forth. The outcome is a climb to maturity
where the new concept is well understood — in terms of what it can do and how best it should be implemented.

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Virtualization Strategies
Teleportation

Dice and slice

Aggregate

Interposing technology that masks the physical nature and boundaries of
resources from resource users.

Virtualization can create some form of container that holds a workload — this can be an entire simulated server,
as in a virtual partition, or it can be a portion of an OS instance. Each approach has advantages and
disadvantages. These containers decouple the needs of the workload inside the container from the boundaries of
the physical assets in the data center.
A virtual machine monitor or hypervisor can quot;dice and slicequot;, making one physical box appear to be many
smaller machines, each a container. The user is free to run independent operating systems and applications in
each container.
Some container technology permits quot;teleportationquot; — the movement of the container from one physical box to
another — while the OS and workload inside the container continue along without disruption.
Other container technology will permit a container to span multiple physical boxes. This is called quot;aggregationquot;,
where the workload runs as if on a single big box under one OS, but is accessing the resources of multiple
discrete machines.
Dice and slice is the most common technique today, found in hardware partitions and all hypervisors or virtual
machine monitors. Teleportation and aggregation are more recent arrivals that are rapidly entering the
marketplace.
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Strategic Planning Assumption: Grid computing within commercial organizations will be
used mainly for computationally intensive workloads through 2007 (0.8 probability).

Grid Computing
Application

Owner A Owner B Owner C

Grid computing has become an over-hyped term. Major vendors such as IBM, Sun Microsystems, HP and
Gateway have grid initiatives. There are many start-ups that assert a connection with grid. According to some
people, grid will greatly boost the efficiency of existing resources, enable a revolution in the use of computers,
and so forth — all the hyperbole that is characteristic of the Peak of Inflated Expectations on the Hype Cycle.
Because the term has such cachet, it will increasingly be added to marketing brochures and slide presentations,
often with only minor justification.
Grid computing was developed in the scientific and technical computing fields as a continuation of decades of
work to increase parallelism and create larger virtual computers than the actual servers that are affordable, or
even achievable, with present technology. Big challenges, such as testing every possible compound to find
candidates to block smallpox or cancer, are addressed by a grid.
Basically, a large problem is addressed by an application that can be divided into many semiautonomous parts.
The parts are then shipped to run on many separate computers. If all the computers are owned by one entity, this
is a computer cluster. It becomes a grid when there are potentially multiple owners of the pool of computers
used.
Action Item: Look for large-scale technical, scientific and engineering applications that may be suitable for
exploiting grid technology.

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Strategic Planning Assumptions: By 2007, infrastructure and business application vendors
will offer pre-integrated frameworks to build (or assemble) composition applications (0.8
probability). By 2008, SOA will provide the basis for 80 percent of new development projects,
and will enable organizations to increase code reuse by more than 100 percent (0.8
probability).

Service-Oriented Architecture (SOA):
Moving From Theory to Practice
Governance
BPP Building Blocks
QoS
New Business Process
Distribution
SOA/SODA Framework
Control
Experience

Management
Security
Definition
Process Services
Interop
Information Management
Measurement Integration Runtime
APS/ESB
Life Cycle Analysis, Testing, Performance
Business Services Repository
Security
Skills

SOA Disruptions

SOA capabilities provide value through the cost-effective use of information assets, and emphasize the construction of dynamic
composite chains of loosely coupled applications to reflect real-time business conditions. Service-oriented business applications
(SOBAs) are built on SOA and use the service-oriented development of applications (SODA) — that is, development time concepts
that leverage reuse and dynamic binding. Building applications on SOA is more than an applications development (AD) benefit — it
makes changes broader, easier and less expensive, even across organizational boundaries and among organizations. The quick
development of composite SOBAs will be a key SOA activity. The incorporation of, and the ability to work with, Web services
standards (including BPEL, SOAP and WSDL) is a key characteristic of SOBA. Event-driven architectures are also relevant, because
Web services and the standards that define them will enable companies to increase their sensitivity and response to significant changes
in their service environments.
Action Item: SOBAs offer real-time SOA benefits that will enable emerging business-critical processes in the next decade. Prepare for
next-generation application deployment.
The Business Process Platform requires a set of technologies that includes user experience, processes design, application integration,
information management and a SOA/SODA framework. These tools are available today on an individual basis, but to deliver the
consistent and controlled composition environment required by business users, these tools must be integrated and wrapped with
security, management, analysis, testing and performance tools. This integrated toolset, plus management tools, also has to be integrated
into the business services repository. Only then can sophisticated business users or business architects visually build a new business
process and then select from content to build or compose new applications that model differentiated business processes. Vendors of
applications, application infrastructure, application development, and information management technology are beginning to expand
their offerings outward to include multiple components of this integrated toolset.
User Advice: To enable quot;user-orientedquot; business process composition, you will need to acquire an integrated toolset that includes
security and management capabilities.
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Strategic Planning Assumptions: Through 2007, 20 percent of Fortune 1000 companies will
deploy an enterprise-level EIM strategy in support of an SOA (0.7 probability). Through 2008,
those organizations that adopt EIM will increase their chances of success in SOA by 70
percent (0.8 probability).

Enterprise Information Management:
A Necessary Compliment to SOA

As the march toward service-oriented architecture (SOA) continues, a focus on information architecture is
required. SOA is about extreme decoupling — decoupling data from process, application from interface and
application from server. Accordingly, the success of SOA depends on knowing where information is (strategic
management of metadata), how to connect to it (data integration platform), and the authoritative sources of
information (master data management). SOA demands more from information architecture than previous
development approaches. An agile company needs EIM.
Building an SOA without an EIM strategy will significantly lower the response to business process choreography.
One of the main benefits of SOBAs will be lost. Developing Web services and SOBA will be more expensive
because each point will have to verify semantics, requiring more development time and money. The alternative is
to remove the function whereby the semantics being referenced are checked. This can be done by creating a single
semantic blanket company-wide, so that when a new service or application stack is added, the semantics are
already assured and managed by the blanket. This removes the overhead at the service level but adds a cost for the
blanket. More importantly, the required level of agility, the flexibility in being able to assemble and reassemble
process through dynamic orchestration, can be achieved. An EIM layer across all repositories accessed by SOBAs
will mean that service choreography can operate faster because it doesn't have to worry about semantics.
Action Item: Develop an enterprise information management system to complement your SOA initiatives.

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Strategic Planning Assumptions: By 2008, OSS solutions will directly compete with closed-
source products in all software infrastructure markets (0.8 probability). By 2010, mainstream
IT organizations will consider OSS in 80 percent of their infrastructure-focused software
investments (0.7 probability).

The Open-Source Stacks: Growing Up
Products Maturity
SugarCRM, Compiere, Ohioedge
Enterprise Applications
Collaboration Zope, phpBB, Nukes, PostNuke
Midgard, OpenCms, Lenya, TYPO3, Red Hat
Content Management
Presentation Jetspeed, Gluecode, Zope, uPortal, Liferay

Search Lucene, ht://Dig
OpenFlow
Process Management
Eclipse, NetBeans, PHP, Perl, Struts, Hibernate, Spring
Development Tools
Integration Services openadaptor

Celtix, ServiceMix
Enterprise Service Bus
JBoss, JOnAS,
Application Servers
Directory Services OpenLDAP
RDBMS MySQL, PostgreSQL, Firebird, Ingres
Snort, Nessus
Security
Linux, FreeBSD
Operating System
Xen
Virtualization

The success or failure of a product depends to a large extent on its quot;alignmentquot; with successful — or otherwise
— products and technologies that together are available as a coherent platform or solution. This is an important
differentiator for mainstream knowledge workplace products that are aligned with the solution strategies of
successful platform vendors such as IBM, Oracle, Microsoft or SAP.
The technology aggregation trend, which caused the rise of mainstream application platform suites and smart
enterprise suite offerings, is also operating on open-source products. Many open-source products for the
knowledge workplace — highlighted above — depend on, and even include, other open-source infrastructure
servers and development tools as part of their distributions. As other open-source infrastructure pieces become
mature and dependable, they serve as building blocks on which to base more-user-focused technology and
services (typically relevant to the knowledge workplace). There is evidence that the cross-fertilization of
different development efforts is accelerating overall development.
Today, OSS is maturing in many levels of the software quot;stackquot;. Increasing numbers of IT organizations are
finding open source to be a valid, cost-effective choice in many aspects of software infrastructure markets.

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Moving From Search to Navigation
Adaptive
Automation Role-Based Access Access
Social Networks
Chronological Context
Location

Management Corporate Data
Backlinking
quot;Techno-foragerquot;

• Capability
Desktop Search
• Complexity
Application Data
Personal
• Storage
Images, Video, Audio

File System
App-Specific
Search Engine

Discrete
Basic Integrated Expanded Contextual
quot;Findquot;
Access Search Search Navigation

Information access is moving from discrete individual searches, often done in the context of an individual application, to a
rich, integrated world where users navigate through a sea of linked information. Ultimately, interpretable information of all
kinds will find its way into searchable environments. However, searches alone will not be enough to provide quot;meaningfulquot;
results. Classification or modeling of the information to be searched for and returned (for example, using ontologies) will
also be needed to return rational results, and not just to reach all the possible sources. The application of techniques such as
backlink analysis provides more context to the search. In the future, contextual navigation will expand, as social networks
and knowledge of the user's role and current quot;statequot; in a business process are used to provide context for a particular request
for information.
As the world of information access evolves, the emphasis will shift from personal empowerment to the management of
information access. Information access management is driven by the enterprise's need to have more control over
information access (for example, who has access under what conditions). Management of the search environment, including
the ability to limit a search based on defined rules (personal or enterprise), will help address the considerable enterprise
security and personal privacy issues. In the longer term, the emphasis will shift to the automation of search/navigation. In an
automated world, the system proactively examines personal preferences, the business process activity being performed, and
other contexts to proactively serve up information that might be of value. In its ultimate incarnation, this would lead us to
the world of intelligent agents and digital assistants.
Adaptive access provides secure, managed, role/context-based linkage to business processes (aka quot;applicationsquot;),
information and other users, from any location, by any user with any device, across any connection with the appropriate
information/application delivery model and user interface.

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Strategic Imperative: In a Web 2.0 world, it's the ecosystem, not the enterprise, that the IT
function needs to serve.

Web 2.0: Naming the Wave
Web service-enabled
User-created content:
business models
User-created metadata
Micropayments
Community
User-created Business Revenue sharing
applications
Mashup syndication
Collaborative creation
Customer/community
Collective intelligence
participation
Explicit community
Long-tail economics
ratings

Technology &
Architecture
Ajax RSS

Open interfaces: Remix/ Platforms & protocols,
P2P
WS*, REST, POX Mashups not products

Web 2.0 refers to recent trends in the technology and business of the Web. It is loosely defined by the following
attributes, only some of which (such as lightweight technology leading to rich user interfaces) are new:
• Greater user participation — User-generated data and metadata and user-centric designs
• Openness — Transparent processes, open application programming interfaces (APIs), and open-source
software and content
• Lightweight rather than heavyweight technology — Scripting languages, Asynchronous JavaScript and XML
(Ajax)-based user interfaces, representational state transfer (REST)-based interaction protocol, RSS-based
syndication and HTML-based microformats
• Decentralized, distributed process — Ad hoc quot;mashupsquot; of Web sites building on public APIs; bottom-up,
bazaar-style development; and content tagged by locally defined quot;folksonomiesquot;
Action Item: Prepare for greater use of Web 2.0 technologies (such as Ajax, RSS, REST and microformats). But
remember that technologies are not definitional, and they are not a long-lasting source of competitive
advantage. What is new and challenging is the social dimension.

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Strategic Planning Assumption: By 2008, AJAX-style GUIs will be the dominant style for RIA
(Rich Internet Application) interfaces (0.8 probability).

AJAX Rich Clients …
Only The Beginning
AJAX
XHTML + CSS + DOM
+ XHTTPRequest

Offline AJAX
Emerging topic

Open AJAX
IBM-led initiative

Related Initiatives
Microsoft Live
http://www.buzzwordcompliant.net/?p=2
IBM Workplace

AJAX enables browser-based applications to have the interactive look and feel of desktop applications. JavaScript embedded in the Web page handles
input from the user, and instead of fetching a complete new page, uses XMLHTTPRequest to fetch some data (usually in XML format) and then render
it on the current Web page by updating the DOM (Document Object Model). This can be done quickly enough with today's high-speed Internet
connections to deliver surprisingly responsive interfaces.
Rich Internet application (RIA) technology in general, and AJAX technology in particular, can provide substantial improvements in user experience
that result in measurable business value. However, the benefits are not automatic, and depend as much on changes to development processes, and on an
awareness of usability-centered design issues, as they do on technology such as AJAX.
Organizations that incorporate AJAX into their Web development projects must select from four levels: 1) Snippet-level — code fragments that can be
easily folded into existing applications; 2) Widget-level — self-contained user interface components that can be bolted on; 3) Framework-level — a
comprehensive framework that requires a rewrite of the front end; and 4) Back-end-integrated — a framework with substantial linkage to back-end
systems. All represent worthwhile choices for an organization, but each has unique risks, rewards and trade-offs, and none can be considered the single
strategic choice.
The Open AJAX initiative, led by IBM, is designed to bolster Eclipse's standing as one of the two main IDEs (along with Microsoft's Visual Studio).
Open-source software (OSS) is highlighted, with Eclipse, Mozilla and several OSS AJAX toolkits (Dojo, openrico, Zimbra and others still to come)
playing a prominent role. Wider participation is needed for Open AJAX to become strategic. So far there is no attempt to standardize toolkits, only the
connection to the IDE. AJAX-enabled Eclipse seems lightweight compared with offerings from AJAX-focused vendors. Over time, Gartner expects to
see a richer technology layer between Eclipse and the toolkits.
Users should expect significant evolution in these models through 2010, as the Web model matures to embrace rich and complex client environments.
AJAX represents only one part of an evolving distributed Web model that takes advantage of rich client capabilities and deals with sporadically
connected and offline use cases. Other initiatives, such as Microsoft Live and IBM Workplace, also attempt to provide managed environments
assuming more robust client software.

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Strategic Planning Assumption: By 2008, Web mashups will be the dominant model for the
creation of composite enterprise applications (0.7 probability).

Mashups: Composite Model for
Opportunistic/Situational Applications

Google Maps +
Fandango =
Mashmap.com

Google Maps +
Salesforce.com
= smashforce

A mashup is a Web site or Web application that combines content from multiple sources into a single integrated
presentation. A mashup uses a variety of public interfaces, including APIs, Web service calls, JavaScripts and
Web feeds (e.g., RSS, Atom) to source the content. The term was inspired by a similar use of the expression in
pop music, where it refers to the practice of creating a new song by assembling purloined parts of other existing
songs. A rich community is growing on the Web, experimenting with mashups based on eBay, Amazon, Google
and Yahoo! APIs.
Google, Microsoft, and Yahoo! offer map-based APIs that have resulted in mashups of data and geography that
in turn drive traffic and advertising. Amazon Web Services (AWS) provides access to its platform and product
data and, as of 4Q 2005, reportedly has more than 120,000 developers and over 975,000 active seller accounts
(those that have sold at least one item in the previous year), with many using AWS. Third-party sellers generated
$490 million in 2Q 2005, which accounts for 28 percent of Amazon's unit sales (up from 24 percent in 2Q 2004).

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Strategic Planning Assumption: By 2008, Web services best practice will have shifted away
from ad hoc approaches to accessing and updating stateful resources to a uniform approach
based on a small set of state management operations (0.8 probability).

Web Platform APIs — A Partial List
411sync - SMS messaging GraphMagic - Graph and chart services
Amazon - Online retailer, search, queuing service Internet Archive - Non-profit Internet library
AmphetaRate - News aggregator JotSpot - Wiki-style collaboration tools
Backpack - Online information manager Library of Congress SRW - Information search
BBC - Multimedia archive database Microsoft - Mapping (MapPoint, Virtual Earth)
Blogger - Blogging services NASA - Satellite mapping images
Bloglines - Online feed aggregator NCBI Entrez - Life sciences search services
Buzznet - Photo sharing NewsGator - Feed aggregation
CDYNE - Data delivery services NOAA Weather Service - Weather forecast database
cPath - Medical database lookup PayPal - Online payments
Creative Commons - Licensing engine integration Plazes - Location discovery service
Data On Call - Fax services Skype - VoIP software
del.icio.us - Social bookmarking StrikeIron - Web services marketplace
Digital Podcast - Podcast search Tagalag - Email tagging
eBay - Online marketplace Tagyu Tag - Recommendation service
EVDB - Events database Technorati - Blog search
FedEx - Package shipping Telcontar - Location-based services
FeedBurner - Blog promotion tracking service Trekmail - Messaging services
FeedMap - Blog geo-coding TypeKey - Authentication framework
Findory - Personalized news aggregation Upcoming.org - Collaborative event calendar
Flickr - Photo-sharing service UPS - Package shipping
Freedb/CDDB - Online CD catalog service Yahoo! - Ads, ad mgt, maps, search, shopping
geocoder - Geographic lookup services ZipCodes - Zip code lookup service
Gigablast - Search service Zvents - Events ecosystem
Google - Adwords, advertising, search, maps

Amazon Simple Queue Service (summarized from Amazon.com Web services site)
Amazon Simple Queue Service (Beta) offers a reliable, highly scalable hosted queue for buffering messages between
distributed application components. Using the Simple Queue Service (SQS), developers can decouple components of their
application so that they run independently. SQS provides the message management between the independent components.
Any component of a distributed application can store any type of data in a reliable queue at Amazon.com. Another
component or application can retrieve the data using queue semantics. The system is intended to reduce the costs associated
with resolving the producer-consumer problem in distributed application development. It is specifically designed for use by
distributed applications. A single queue can be used simultaneously by many distributed application components. There is
no need for components to coordinate with each other to enable them to share a queue. A configurable read-lock feature is
included to lower the incidence of duplicate messages when two applications are concurrently reading from the same queue.
StrikeIron (summarized from Strikeiron.com)
The StrikeIron Web Services Marketplace includes all the StrikeIron Web Services and quot;StrikeIron Marketplace Powered
Web Servicesquot; from other providers. All the Web services in the StrikeIron Marketplace are sold through StrikeIron and
have distinct advantages, such as availability of simplified sign-on, simplified billing and accounting, flexible pricing
alternatives, and integrated tools and services to accelerate their utilization. StirkeIron's capabilities include: commerce,
communications, computers, content databases, entertainment, finance, general business, government, human resources,
marketing, multimedia, news, reference, sales, sports, supply chain, transportation and utilities.

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Strategic Planning Assumptions: By 2012, radio frequency identification (RFID) and similar
wireless chips will evolve from supply-chain technologies into enablers of value-added
consumer applications, such as item location and status reporting. By 2012, RFID tags will
add mesh network capabilities (0.6 probability).
Tactical Guideline: Type A organizations that need to carry out simple sensing in inaccessible
locations should conduct trials of sensor networks in 2006.

Pervasive Computing —
RFID Tags and Mesh Networks
RFID — Beyond Bar Codes
Mesh Networks
Read while covered or moving
Low-power CPU
Scan at a distance
Survives water, heat, painting On-chip wireless
Price dropping to low levels Ad hoc networking
Can remain in product for life algorithms
Privacy issues must be solved
May be self-
Applications
powered
Toll pass systems
On-chip sensors
Pet identification
(such as MEMS)
Access cards
Retail theft protection
Improved asset control
Real-time retail-shelf inventory
Improve manufacturing and
supply-chain efficiency
After-sale service offerings
Photo source: Texas Instruments

The use of RFID tags has been relatively low and at a steep price premium compared with bar coding or other marking
methods. Usage will continue to increase rapidly as the advantages of this technology over bar codes are exploited. Volume
increases beget cost reductions, fueling further expansion of the technology to lower value and higher volumes of tracked
items. During the remainder of this decade, the costs will decline to the point where RFID will become ubiquitous in supply
chains, retailing and manufacturing environments.
Tags embedded in products, as opposed to packaging, enable life-of-the-product tracking and in-depth identification of the
history and state of each product instance. Clever businesses will develop value-added services, based on RFID
information, that can be offered to generate incremental profit from customers during a product's life. Receiving,
warehousing, distribution and retail will gain speed and cost advantages from RFID. To gain these advantages, new
investments will have to be made in systems and tools, moderating the adoption rate.
quot;Mesh networkquot; is a broad term describing wireless networks in which a node can relay signals via several other nodes. In a
sensor network, each mesh node includes, or is connected to, a sensor of some type. Examples include temperature,
vibration or pressure sensors. Some vendors produce small nodes with a battery life of several years. Mesh networks offer
several potential advantages for industrial and military M2M applications, including low installation cost, scalability and
resilience.
Action Item: Evaluate the potential advantages of RFID tags for high-value objects, new services and sharp improvements
in efficiency; as costs decrease, broaden the investigation to a wider set of uses.

Page 13


Strategic Planning Assumption: By 2010, 80 percent of Internet-connected individuals will
knowingly or unknowingly participate in some NCI activity (0.7 probability).

Networked Collective Intelligence
A Different Kind of Problem Solving
NCI Technique
Domain
Large Scale
Unrestricted editorial acess using a wiki
Content Creation (e.g., Wikipedia.org)
Open Participation

Diverse and Directories (e.g., Open Directory User-created Web-wide directory
Project)
Distributed
NASA Clickworker Project Image classification
Incremental Spam Filtering Network (Razor) Collaborative spam detection and
Improvement filtering
Seller/buyer/product ratings
eBay, Epinions, Yahoo!,...
Independent
Folksonomies (e.g., Technorati, Label Weblogs, bookmarks, pictures,
(little or no interaction)
del.icio.us, Flickr) content...
Search results relevance (Google) Use hyperlinks as ratings
Ad hoc & Small
Contributions Prediction Markets (NewsFutures, Rate, buy/sell ideas/opinions
Foresight Exchange)
Expert Syndication (e.g., InnoCentive) Locate, buy, rate experts
Self-Selection
Shop Recommendation Engines (e.g., Popularity-based ratings; collaborative
Aggregation Amazon) filtering
Mechanisms P2P Networks (e.g., Skype, Shared infrastructure; near-symmetrical
BitTorrent) communication rates
Common/Diffused Open-Source Development Software creation
Ownership

Communities are the basis of society and work. Traditional communities tended to be based on relatively long-
lived social groupings, such as families, employment or team membership. However, technology has enabled
many new types of community, as well as new ways for communities to collaborate. Organizations can take
advantage of technology-enabled communities and collaboration by, for example:
• Extending their enterprise boundaries to new sources of talent, even for their core competencies (for
example, through quot;bountyquot; sites, such as InnoCentive and TopCoder).
• Looking for implicit patterns and information in data created as a side effect of networked interactions, such
as Google's link analysis to determine Web site quality.
• Identifying relevant contributors in real time (for example, through expertise location).
During the next decade, collaboration will rise above the radar screen for many corporations, which will observe,
manage, monitor and measure, and archive collaboration as a corporate resource.
Action Item: Look for opportunities not just to support collaboration and in-house communities, but also to
exploit broader communities enabled or identified by technology.

Page 14


Agenda

What are the top 10 technologies an IT
1.
professional needs to know about in 2006?
What are the most disruptive trends and most
2.
significant opportunities arising from emerging
information technology for 2016?

Page 15


2001 Strategic Planning Assumption: By 2007, more than 30 percent of contact center
personnel will be dedicated to providing quot;secretquot; customer service (that is, invisible to the
customer) as part of an automated customer interface (0.6 probability).
2006 Strategic Planning Assumption: By 2010, 15 percent of organizations will move to intent-
driven customer strategies (0.7 probability).

Help Yourself
Seamless Service
Operating across automated and live channels
quot;Secretquot; Service
Unseen human in the loop
Service Avoidance
Automation, communities
Self-Sufficiency
Deeper involvement in product definition/
service resolution
Customer Intent-Driven
Proactively addressing customers' goals

Since 2001, many organizations have continued a strong focus on self-service, including creating seamless
service experiences across multiple interaction channels. A few have introduced quot;secretquot; service models, in
which human agents support the automated systems where they fall short, often without the customer knowing
that there is a human in the loop. Finding alternate ways to solve a customer's problem is also a key goal — for
example, by automating problem diagnosis and resolution, or by creating communities of customers who can
help each other.
Future directions include a drive toward helping the growing body of smart, informed customers become more
self-sufficient through services such as quot;design your own credit cardquot; in which customers can explicitly trade off
interest rates against loyalty points and the amount of the annual fee. This is part of a broader trend toward
understanding and delivering to a customer's intent (for example, does this customer want to travel somewhere
as quickly as possible, or as cheaply as possible?), which involves balancing the intentions that the business has
for the customer with the most likely intentions that the customer has for the business.
Action Item: Reevaluate organizational processes to explicitly address the context of the customer relationship
and each interaction within that relationship.

Page 16

2001 Strategic Planning Assumption: By 2008, a new billion-dollar industry will emerge, based
on collecting, organizing and selling tags as a distinct commodity (0.6 probability).
2006 Strategic Planning Assumption: By 2015, specific industries (for example, healthcare,
insurance, marketing) will create a billion dollars of additional revenue through automated
discovery of new attributes (0.6 probability).

Tagging the World: New Sources and
Types of Information Attribute

Attributes
Items Techniques
Topic
Text, images Text analysis
+ Quality
Audio, video Link analysis
Status
Products, services Peer tagging
Location
People Semantic markup
Affinity
Places Content mining

Key Trends
Growth of tagging marketplaces
Automated discovery of new attributes

In 2001, Gartner featured a trend concerning the rise of information tags that described attributes of an item
(such as content, services, people, locations) . The trend focused on the information content rather than on
physical tags such as radio frequency identification (RFID). The trend highlighted the increase in automated
techniques to create information tags (for example, quality, topic) and the growth of a quot;feedback societyquot; in
which individuals contributed their own perspectives rather than leaving things to the professionals.
A recent surge in online tagging services (such as digg.com, Flickr and del.icio.us) has pushed this trend into the
foreground, and we predict further traction and applicability of this phenomenon. The availability of tagged
items on such a massive scale will lead to new capabilities (for example, machine learning techniques for image
recognition). In addition, the routine collection and automated analysis of new data types (such as location,
proximity) will lead to the identification of new types of attribute (for example, the quot;entropyquot; of a person — see
MIT's Reality Mining project at http://reality.media.mit.edu/).
Action Item: Identify opportunities to better understand and target customers and to optimize service offerings
based on attributes that are available through mass peer tagging or that can be automatically discovered and
assigned.

Page 17


2001 Strategic Planning Assumption: By 2010, 70 percent of the population in developed
nations will spend 10 times longer per day interacting with people in the e-world than in the
physical one (0.6 probability).
2006 Strategic Planning Assumption: By 2015, more than 100 leading companies will have
made or saved at least $10 million due to collective intelligence (0.6 probability).

Community as Core Competency

New marketplaces Extend your organization
Scientific Discovery by using, or being, the new
InnoCentive marketplaces
Financial Services
Leverage implicit
Prosper
Product design contributions: buying,
Threadless linking, clicking, searching
Microservices
Use the power of scale to
Amazon Mturk
solve old problems in new
ways
Collective Intelligence
Open-source, Wikipedia
Leverage lead users to
Prediction markets
help drive innovation
Tagging

Technology has enabled many new types of communities, as well as new ways for communities to collaborate,
which in turn has created new sources of information and new styles of creation. Organizations can take
advantage of technology-enabled communities by:
• Extending their enterprise boundaries to new sources of talent, even for their core competencies — for
example, through quot;bountyquot; sites, such as InnoCentive and TopCoder
• Using networked collective intelligence to leverage small contributions from a broad community of motivated,
self-selecting contributors
• Taking advantage of the massive scale of worldwide network connectivity to trigger new approaches to
difficult problems
• Identifying and leveraging quot;lead usersquot; (see quot;Democratizing Innovationquot; by Eric von Hippel) who can
contribute in a major way to design innovation
Action Item: Take advantage of new types of community interaction that can extend your enterprise and its
creative processes.

Page 18


2001 Strategic Planning Assumption: By 2005, the use of Web services will herald the rise
of peer-to-peer service consumer/producer relationships (0.8 probability).
2006 Definition: quot;Applicationquot; shifts from being quot;what you buyquot; to quot;what you do with the
software assets under your control, whether homegrown or purchased.quot;

Applications Shift From Pre-Canned
Logic to Dynamic Assemblies
Application SOA, EDA, BPM, BPP,
Monoliths, SODA/ISE,
Shifts to Driven By
Black or composite applications,
Opaque reuse, metadata, MDA
Boxes Well-Defined, Atomic Functional
Components and Processes

Vendor User BPP, SODA/ISE,
Shifts to
Design for Tailored Driven By metadata, portals
Mass- for
Market Fit Custom Fit

BAM, RTI, BPA,
BPM, rules engines,
Shifts to Driven By composite applications,
Web 2.0
Optimizing the Efficiency Optimizing the Agility
of the Process of the Process

A critical shift in the concept of quot;applicationquot; is under way. Once end users stopped creating all their own
monolithic applications, applications became vendor-constructed monoliths — mass-market-focused bundles of
black-boxed functionality, delivered on a vendor-specified release schedule. With the advent of new technical
capabilities (for example, integrated service environment [ISE], business process management suite and real-
time infrastructure [RTI]) and new architectural models (such as service-oriented architecture [SOA] and event-
driven architecture [EDA]), the application is being re-cast.
The black box of monolithic business logic is being cracked open, exposing access to smaller components or
services (for example, SOA-based). Each of these components or services is able to participate in a larger
quot;compositionquot; of application logic using business process management (BPM) and ISE/service-oriented
development of applications (SODA) process-centric concepts, driven by needs unanticipated by the original
creator or vendor. Vendor-mandated and vendor-delivered upgrades are being replaced by change based on
systems-level and application-level feedback derived from monitoring and performance information offered by
business activity monitoring (BAM), RTI, business process analysis (BPA) and BPM. The overarching shift is
one of increased agility for the end users, and a de-emphasis of the traditional, pre-defined application as an
entity in its own right.

Page 19


2001 Strategic Planning Assumption: By 2007, more than 60 percent of the population will
carry or wear a wireless computing and communications device at least six hours a day,
and by 2010, more than 75 percent will do so (0.6 probability).
2006 Strategic Planning Assumption: The volume of real-time information reaching urban
consumers will increase tenfold by 2015 (0.7 probability).

Real World Web
Real-World Web Technologies Behavior-based Pricing Models
Wireless communications Usage, risk
Sensor networks
Object identification
Location identification
Attribute tags
Smart Objects and Packaging
Know identity, location, owner,
history, safety, environment …

Augmented Reality
Context-based information at point of decision/action

Unifying Digital and Physical Worlds

Increasingly, real-world objects will not only contain local processing capabilities due to the falling size and cost
of microprocessors, but they will also be able to interact with their surroundings through sensing and networking
capabilities. The emergence of this real-world Web will bring the power of the Web, which today is perceived as
a quot;separatequot; virtual place, to the user's point of need of information or transaction.
Companies will be able to take advantage of ongoing connectivity — for example, delivering product safety or
recall alerts or additional services even after products have been provided to customers. They will also capitalize
on the potential for new pricing models, such as location tracking for insurance or hourly car rental.
Augmented reality will allow the user's view of the real world to be supplemented with relevant information,
such as context-specific text or graphics delivered to a heads-up display or mobile device, or audio information
delivered to a headset. Electronic devices and other consumer products may also introduce quot;sociablequot; attributes,
such as recognizing their owner and determining when they are being held.
Action Item: Identify applications in which decisions can be improved by delivering context-specific information
to mobile workers or customers.

Page 20

Strategic Planning Assumptions: By 2015, the improvement in the productivity of
information workers that can be attributed to increased display screen workspace will
exceed 20 percent (0.6 probability).
By 2015, the focus of user interfaces (UIs) will shift from designing individual interfaces for
devices to creating a proactive UI framework for the environment (0.6 probability).

The Experience Is the Computer

GUI remains dominant

2010
Devices integrate information
from many sources to create
Ambient intelligence: off the
contextual and sociable user
desktop and into the world
experience
More-diverse user populations
2015
Display advances:
Focus shifts from
large screen, e-paper
interfaces for devices to
Alternate inputs: digital
a proactive UI framework
pen, speech, touch
for the environment
2020
Truly mobile devices:
vehicles, robots

Although little has changed in the dominant user interface paradigm — the graphical user interface (GUI) — for
nearly 20 years, a number of technology advances will start to change the interface landscape by 2010. Large-
screen displays will drop in price, and low-cost screen digitizers and OS support (Windows Vista) for pen
interfaces will make the pen input and touch screens more prevalent. Mobile phones and music players will
incorporate contextual knowledge about owners, profiles, locations and so forth. Starting at about 2010, devices
will integrate information from many sources to deliver an integrated and sociable user experience.
After 2015, the so-called desktop will flow off of the desk and into office appliances and the walls around the
user. In this world of ambient intelligence, any nontrivial device will contain some degree of embedded
processing and communications capability. In this new environment, the focus shifts from interfaces on
individual devices to an quot;environmental user interface,quot; acting as a contextual user access and information
delivery engine across multiple interconnected devices.
Action Item: Be ready for major shifts in the 2010 to 2015 time frame, but focus investment on specific
applications with quantifiable value, such as digital pens to speed access to captured data.

Page 21

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