IPM 2009 Conference briefing. The Performance Measurement Baseline is the project controls vehicle that connects Cost, Schedule, and Technical Performance in a single database.
2. I’ll present today eight (8) core steps in developing a credible Performance Measurement
Baseline (PMB).
These appear to be “easy” steps in principle. In practice of course all things are hard when
it comes to successfully managing programs.
But let’s start with the principles. And let’s also remember Yogi Berra’s quote
In theory there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice there is.
So let’s talk a little bit about the theory, but focus our time here on the practice of building
a credible Performance Measurement Baseline.
Glen B. Alleman
Lewis & Fowler, 8310 South Valley
Highway, Englewood CO80112
www.lewisandfowler.com 2
5. Building a credible PMB starts with identifying the architecture of the IMP and the
supporting tasks in the IMS.
Although this is restating the obvious the process to do this is actually quite hard.
Adding schedule and cost risk identification and mitigation to the process is the
minimal result for a winning proposal.
It cannot be emphasized enough – the architecture of the IMS is critical to
identifying i k t l
id tif i a risk tolerant schedule. The “rats nest” approach i simply unacceptable
t h d l Th “ t t” h is i l t bl
to the success of any program.
9. Here’s our 8 steps to building the Performance Measurement Baseline.
Each step should be performed in the order defined here.
1. Define the product or service to be delivered
2. Define the maturity assessment points – the places where the pre‐defined technical
performance measures will be assessed
3. Define the accomplishments needed to move the product to a pre‐defined level of
maturity
4. Define the measurement criteria needed to performance the maturity assessment
measurements. These are the “exit” criteria for the individual work packages.
5. Define those work packages. Keep them inside a duration that answers the question
“how long are you willing to wait before you find out you’re late?” Most firms limit the
work packages to 60 calendar days
work packages to 60 calendar days
6. Connect the work packages in a sequence to provides increasing technical maturity and
minimal exposure to programmatic and technical risk.
7. Assemble all this information into an Integrated Master Schedule
8. Do this integration in an incremental manner – one program event at a time.
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21. One of the new ideas about building the PMB is to only connect the Work Packages
together – instead of the Tasks. Tasks within the Work Package can be
interconnected.
But between the Work Packages, if there is interconnections the work on the right
will be using partially completed work on the left.
If this is done, then the work package on the right will absorb this partially
completed work, and when the work on the left is completed, re-work may be
re work
needed of anything changed.
Treat the work packages as complete “lumps of work,” with 100% fidelity to the
planned deliverable.
This way the work package on the right can start with fully formed raw materials.
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29. Analysis of Probabilistic Schedule and Last Updated: 11/2/2009
Cost Models
When we speak of probabilistic risk analysis, we also need to speak of the statistical
nature of the activity network.
When we speak of a probabilistic activity network (a Bayesian network) we also
need to speak in terms of probability.
A question that can be asked of the network is – “ what is the probability of
completing this task by a certain date?”
A second question th t can be asked i – “ h t are th underlying statistics of th
d ti that b k d is “what the d l i t ti ti f the
activities of the network?”
A final question that needs to be asked is “what is the inherent uncertainty in these
estimates?”
In other words – how good is our ability to guess in the presence of a statistical
process?
Prepared by Glen B. Alleman
December 2005 29/176
32. And we need to connect that forecast of future performance to the technical performance
of product.
f d
Being on schedule and on budget but being out of compliance with the technical
performance measures is not good. More work is now needed to get the product “on
spec.”
Some might say that “off spec” is recognizable. But if the performance specification (MoP
or MoE) are statistical compliance, it’s not that straight forward.
We must understand what it means to be statistically compliant. This is a statistical process
control issue. In what Standard Deviation are we compliant. It’s different to be in the 1st
standard deviation than in the 2nd standard deviation.
This presentation is too short to dive into the issues around probabilistic compliance
models, but remember is simple story
What is the most likely (the mode) of temperatures in Trinidad Tobago and Cody
Wyoming?
Wyoming?
Well they are the same 78°
What is the variance?
Well that’s different
In Trinidad its about ± 5°
In Cody its – 50 to +20
In Cody its 50° to +20°
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