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Population 24/7: building space-time specific population surface models Samantha Cockings, David Martin and Samuel Leung, University of Southampton, UK GISRUK Conference, UCL London, 14 April 2010
Presentation overview ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Project website ( new! ) at http://www.southampton.ac.uk/geography/research/phew/pop247/index.html
Space-time population modelling: background concepts
Small area population mapping ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Currently mapped locations  Photos: David Martin, Sam Cockings
Observations… ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
“ Uncharted” locations 1 Photos: David Martin
“ Uncharted” locations 2 Photos:  David Martin
Conceptual framework for our approach
Space-time population modelling ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Objective ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Mapping population to activities/places… Total population +/- external visitors Private dwellings Non-residential Communal ests. Transport Education Employment Residential Temp accomm. Generalized local Family/social Retail Leisure Tourism Healthcare Rail Metro/subway Air Water Road Locations ...  and further subdivisions
Spatial modelling framework ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Extension to the spatio-temporal problem ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Time profile example – school 00  06  12  18  00  Time of day Population In transit Present
Basic space-time interpolation algorithm ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],study area  a time t background layer  b - visitors out + visitors in area of influence  j local extent  d centroid  i
Data sources
What do current data sources cover? Total population +/- external visitors Private dwellings Non-residential Communal ests. Transport Education Employment Residential Temp accomm. Generalized local Family/social Retail Leisure Tourism Healthcare Rail Metro/subway Air Water Road - Census, Mid-Year Population Estimates (MYEs) - Census, Mid-Year Population Estimates (MYEs) Locations Data Sources
Data sources for all non-residential 24% 49% Total population +/- external visitors Private dwellings Non-residential Communal ests. Transport Education Employment Residential Temp accomm. Generalized local Family/social Retail Leisure Tourism Healthcare Rail Metro/subway Air Water Road - Census, Mid-Year Population Estimates (MYEs) - Census, Mid-Year Population Estimates (MYEs) - Neighbourhood Statistics, DCSF EduBase, HESA - Census, Annual Business Inquiry,  QLFS -  VisitBritain, Annual Business Inquiry -  VisitBritain -  Annual Business Inquiry, commercial sources - ALVA Visitor Statistics,  DCMS - ALVA Visitor Statistics,  DCMS - Hospital Episode Statistics -  National Rail station usage data - DfT Light Rail Statistics, TfL Tube customer metrics - CAA UK Airport Statistics - DfT Sea Passenger Statistics , London River Services - DfT Road Statistics, Annual Average Daily Flow Locations Data Sources -
Time profiles ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Timetable Examples
Background layer: land use/transportation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Empirical example
Study area and early results ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Centroid set ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Transport ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Southampton study area Southampton, 200m cells
Next steps
Initial visualization of output ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Pop247.NET program
Acknowledgements ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Questions?
Explanatory notes
Centroids, boundaries and grids Centroid locations and boundaries Centroid populations redistributed onto grid
Distance decay function Always try to provide a caption next to your picture in this style
Southampton - Data Sources
Data sources 1 - Southampton ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Data sources 2 - Southampton ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Southampton study area in 6 time slices
02:00 Residential “night-time” model; considerable goods vehicle traffic on motorway & trunk roads Southampton, 200m cells
08:00 Early workplaces, docks, industrial estates; rest as residential; near-peak traffic Southampton, 200m cells
09:00 Workplaces, educational institutions, “daytime” model; low residential; very high central densities; peak traffic volume Southampton, 200m cells
16:00 Workplaces, FE & HE institutions still open, schools closed; low residential; very high central densities Southampton, 200m cells
18:00 Late workplaces remain, education closed; return to residential; high central densities Southampton, 200m cells
21:00 Residential “night-time” model; late night light traffic flow on all roads Southampton, 200m cells

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Gisruk2010 1 b cockings, martin and leung (2010) population 247 building space-time specific population surface models

  • 1. Population 24/7: building space-time specific population surface models Samantha Cockings, David Martin and Samuel Leung, University of Southampton, UK GISRUK Conference, UCL London, 14 April 2010
  • 2.
  • 3. Space-time population modelling: background concepts
  • 4.
  • 5. Currently mapped locations Photos: David Martin, Sam Cockings
  • 6.
  • 7. “ Uncharted” locations 1 Photos: David Martin
  • 8. “ Uncharted” locations 2 Photos: David Martin
  • 10.
  • 11.
  • 12. Mapping population to activities/places… Total population +/- external visitors Private dwellings Non-residential Communal ests. Transport Education Employment Residential Temp accomm. Generalized local Family/social Retail Leisure Tourism Healthcare Rail Metro/subway Air Water Road Locations ... and further subdivisions
  • 13.
  • 14.
  • 15. Time profile example – school 00 06 12 18 00 Time of day Population In transit Present
  • 16.
  • 18. What do current data sources cover? Total population +/- external visitors Private dwellings Non-residential Communal ests. Transport Education Employment Residential Temp accomm. Generalized local Family/social Retail Leisure Tourism Healthcare Rail Metro/subway Air Water Road - Census, Mid-Year Population Estimates (MYEs) - Census, Mid-Year Population Estimates (MYEs) Locations Data Sources
  • 19. Data sources for all non-residential 24% 49% Total population +/- external visitors Private dwellings Non-residential Communal ests. Transport Education Employment Residential Temp accomm. Generalized local Family/social Retail Leisure Tourism Healthcare Rail Metro/subway Air Water Road - Census, Mid-Year Population Estimates (MYEs) - Census, Mid-Year Population Estimates (MYEs) - Neighbourhood Statistics, DCSF EduBase, HESA - Census, Annual Business Inquiry, QLFS - VisitBritain, Annual Business Inquiry - VisitBritain - Annual Business Inquiry, commercial sources - ALVA Visitor Statistics, DCMS - ALVA Visitor Statistics, DCMS - Hospital Episode Statistics - National Rail station usage data - DfT Light Rail Statistics, TfL Tube customer metrics - CAA UK Airport Statistics - DfT Sea Passenger Statistics , London River Services - DfT Road Statistics, Annual Average Daily Flow Locations Data Sources -
  • 20.
  • 22.
  • 24.
  • 25.
  • 26.
  • 27.
  • 29.
  • 31.
  • 34. Centroids, boundaries and grids Centroid locations and boundaries Centroid populations redistributed onto grid
  • 35. Distance decay function Always try to provide a caption next to your picture in this style
  • 37.
  • 38.
  • 39. Southampton study area in 6 time slices
  • 40. 02:00 Residential “night-time” model; considerable goods vehicle traffic on motorway & trunk roads Southampton, 200m cells
  • 41. 08:00 Early workplaces, docks, industrial estates; rest as residential; near-peak traffic Southampton, 200m cells
  • 42. 09:00 Workplaces, educational institutions, “daytime” model; low residential; very high central densities; peak traffic volume Southampton, 200m cells
  • 43. 16:00 Workplaces, FE & HE institutions still open, schools closed; low residential; very high central densities Southampton, 200m cells
  • 44. 18:00 Late workplaces remain, education closed; return to residential; high central densities Southampton, 200m cells
  • 45. 21:00 Residential “night-time” model; late night light traffic flow on all roads Southampton, 200m cells