Space Tourism lecture at U of I Dept of Aerospace 28th Nov 2005 Part 1

1. Space tourism Opportunities and Challenges in the Second Space Race Steven Fawkes BSc, DipTechEcon, PhD, CEng, FEI, FBIS University of Illinois, 28 th November 2005

2. Agenda The first and second space races The emerging paradigm Why go? Who wants to go? The space industry and the tourism industry The development of space tourism Some personal experiences The challenges Summary

3. Agenda The first and second space races The emerging paradigm Why go? Who wants to go? The space industry and the tourism industry The development of space tourism Some personal experiences The challenges Summary

6. The 1st Space Race - Characteristics Motivation Geo-political Actors Government Market Environment Monopoly Mode “ Mission” Return on Investment Negative Beneficiaries Political systems & nation states Cultural effect Large for short period Business Sustainability Dependent on political will Public involvement Spectators Access to space Limited to astronauts with “superhero” status Cost High Public perception “ Noble endeavour” or “waste of money”

7. The 2nd Space Race - Characteristics Motivation Profit Actors Private companies Market Environment Competition Mode “ Trip” Return on Investment Positive Beneficiaries Shareholders and consumers Cultural effect Large for an extended period – “opening the frontier” effect Business Sustainability Dependent on financial success Public involvement Public as participants Access to space Open to nearly all Cost Low Public perception “ Inevitable”, “natural” but could be negative environmental image

9. Agenda The first and second space races The emerging paradigm Why go? Who wants to go? The space industry and the tourism industry The development of space tourism Some personal experiences The challenges Summary

10. Space – the old paradigm It is a long way away It is expensive to get to Only government agencies can go to space The “mission” model To fly in space you have to be a “superhero”

11. Space myths- it is a long way away It is 100 miles from anywhere You can be there in 10 to 15 minutes How far away is space? “ Millions of miles away” “ A long long way away”

12. Space myths- it’s expensive It is expensive because: It was developed along military lines as a “battle ground” of the Cold War – the ICBM approach The technology is not commercial – it is bespoke and thrown away after each use Government space agencies are self serving bureacracies which have a vested interest in spending more tax money and convincing everyone that space is “hard to do”

13. A historical note Prior to the late 1950s space was seen as natural extension of aviation Re-usable spaceplanes would fly into space and return (NB X-15 space flights) Geo-political imperatives of the Cold War led to the ICBM approach

14. What might have been?

15. Space myths – the super hero astronaut Astronauts are not super human Passengers don’t have to be pilots! You don’t have to be super-fit Max g-load is 3 - 5g for a short period After 10 to 15 minutes you are in zero-g NB this pulls 4.5g!

16. John Glenn 1 st American in orbit – 1962 Flew on Space Shuttle – 1998 - aged 77

17. Denis Tito 1 st space tourist Flew on Soyuz & ISS – 2001 – aged 60

18. Space – the myths refuted It is a long way away IT IS ONLY A HUNDRED MILES FROM ANYWHERE It is expensive to get to IT IS EXPENSIVE WHEN IT IS DONE BY GOVERNMENTS To fly in space you have to be a “superhero” ORDINARY PEOPLE CAN GO AS PASSENGERS

19. Space – the emerging paradigm It is very close It is not expensive to get to Private companies will go into space The “tourist” model Almost anyone can go into space

20. Agenda The first and second space races The emerging paradigm Why go? Who wants to go? The space industry and the tourism industry The development of space tourism Some personal experiences The challenges Summary

21. Why go to space? Why would YOU want to go into space?

22. Why go to space? The view Zero gravity The experience

25. “ I don’t know what you could say about a day in which you have seen sixteen beautiful sunsets” “ Exploration is really the essence of the human spirit” “ From 150 miles up all the problems of the world look small” “ From space you can’t see any borders” The experience

26. Agenda The first and second space races The emerging paradigm Why go? Who wants to go? The space industry and the tourism industry The development of space tourism Some personal experiences The challenges Summary

27. Who wants to go? Market research in several countries shows a large proportion of the population want to go Why? Zero-g, the view, the experience People have seen much of the world – now want experiences NB 40 years ago going abroad was unusual (except in the military) 20 years ago long haul travel was unusual

28. Agenda The first and second space races The emerging paradigm Why go? Who wants to go? The space industry and the tourism industry The development of space tourism Some personal experiences The challenges Summary

29. How big is the space industry? What is the global turnover of the space industry? Does anyone know? Does anyone want to guess? ($ billions) Is it a big or small industry?

30. All $ millions 2002 results US companies only Source: Forbes 500 How big is the space industry? $217,799 $125,913 $187,510 $177,260 $162,412 $37,000 37

31. Travel and Tourism Industry $6.2 trillion Space Industry $37 billion Comparing space industry to tourism industry

32. 221,568,000 8.3% total $1,712 bn 3.8% GDP $1,512 bn 12% total $2,833 bn 10.4% total $919 bn 9.4% total 2005 World Travel and Tourism Council survey 2015 269,556,000 8.9% total $2,660 bn 3.9% GDP $3,023 bn 11% total $4,062 bn 11% total $1,673 bn 10% total

35. Tourist Industry Niches – Eco-Tourism “ all forms of tourism in which the tourists’ main motivation is the observation and appreciation of nature” Market growing faster than the industry as a whole Space – the ultimate eco-tourism? NB Developers must pay attention to the sustainability issue

36. Agenda The first and second space races The emerging paradigm Why go? Who wants to go? The space industry and the tourism industry The development of space tourism Some personal experiences The challenges Summary

37. The development of space tourism Stage 1 – space related tourism Stage 2 – sub-orbital Stage 3 – orbital Stage 4 – beyond orbit Here now Within 3 to 5 years Here now – mass market 15 years 25 to 50 years? (But could be 2008)

38. Sub-orbital tourism Flight into space – above 100km high Five minutes of zero gravity Great view Coming to an airport near you soon!

40. Update – Virgin Galactic and competition Rocketplane (US) A modified Lear jet with a rocket Recruiting Virgin Galactic (UK/US) $10M deposits 200,000 people registered interest To fly 2008 Starchaser (UK/US) Recruiting in New Mexico Rocket technology ARCA (Romania) VTOVL Blue Origin (US) Recruiting Backed by Jeff Bezos

42. Orbital space flight

43. Orbital tourism - space hotels All the facilities of cruise ships Zero-g and a great view of Earth 1 to 2 weeks in orbit Possible EVA experience Cost comparable to cruising Possible use for the ISS?

45. Beyond Earth orbit – 2008?

47. Agenda The first and second space races The emerging paradigm Why go? Who wants to go? The space industry and the tourism industry The development of space tourism Some personal experiences The challenges Summary

48. Zero g training flight, Star City August 2004