Miller - The Critical Role of Materials in the PV Industry

GW Solar Institute Symposium
The Critical Role of Materials
in the Solar PV Industry

Dave Miller
President, DuPont Electronics & Communications

April 19, 2010

DuPont Photovoltaic Solutions

2

Discussion Topics

• PV market background

• Materials role in helping reach grid parity

• Investment required in materials

2010/4/15 DUPONT © DuPont


3

The Vision of DuPont
To be the world’s most dynamic science company,
creating sustainable solutions
essential to a better, safer, healthier life for people everywhere.

We are a market-driven science company.


4


Cell metallization Films for backsheets Module Engineering
& process chemicals & frontsheets encapsulation resins & components

#1 Global PV materials manufacturer (ex-silicon)



5

Industry Status: Post Financial Crisis
Demand Strong Again, but Pricing Weak

Return to historical • ~50% installation growth from 2009 to 2010
PV growth rates • Significant growth in USA, China, & Italy

• US: ITC (30% subsidy), MTC ($2.3B)
Stronger impact from
• China: Golden Sun (50% subsidy, ~$3B)
stimulus programs
• Germany: FIT cut 3Q10

• Bank lending more conservative
Continued focus on
• Bank lending for CIGS & Concentrator PV developing
“bankable” technologies slowly

• 2009 module prices down 30-40% yr/yr
Continued weak pricing
• Expect another 10-20% price decline in 2010



6

Tremendous Reduction in Module Prices
Accelerates the Drive to Grid Parity

Crystalline Si Module Selling Prices
4.50

Module 4.00
Price
($/W)
3.50

3.00
2009 Module
2.50
Prices:
Down ~38%
Financial Crisis

2.00

1.50

1.00
1Q07
2Q07
3Q07
4Q07
1Q08
2Q08
3Q08
4Q08
1Q09
2Q09
3Q09
4Q09
1Q10
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10

Projected

2010/4/15 DUPONT Source: Deutsche Bank © DuPont


7

Significant growth of PV installations expected to 2014,
driven by expanding incentives and cost reduction
Annual Installations Volume CAGRs 2010-2014
2010 2014 on GW basis
Rank Rank
1 Germany 2014 2 (-1)
2010

2 Japan 4 (-2)

Germ.
3 Italy 5 (-2) 2% ROE

US Fran 68%
4 USA 1 (+4) Spain 21% China Japan
57% 13% Italy 43% 19%
14%
5 France 7 (-2) India
50% ROA
6 Spain 10 (-4) 23%

7 China 3 (+4)

8 Czech 14 (-6)
>50%
>50%
9 ROA 12 (-3) Growth 30-50%
Growth 30-50%
Rate
Rate 20-30%
20-30%
10 India 8 (+2)
<20%
<20%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
GW Total 2010: 12.7 GW CAGR:
Market 2014: 30.0 GW 24%
2010/4/15 DUPONT
Source: EPIA Policy Driven Scenario, March 2010 © DuPont


8

U.S. Companies Maintain a Strong Leadership
Position in Materials & Equipment for PV
Balance
Materials
Cells Modules Of Systems
& Equipment
System

10% 6%
37%

ROW ROW ROW

2010/4/15 DUPONT Source: DuPont © DuPont


9

Photovoltaics is an Excellent Creator of Jobs

Job Creation Potential of Various Energy Generation Assets
Number of 40
Jobs per
MW 35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0
Coal Natural Gas Nuclear Tidal Wind Geothermal Biomass- Solar PV
Dedicated
Steam

Source: INEEL, BC Sustainable Energy Association, Lehman Brothers, Renewable Energy Policy Project



10

PV Has Higher Materials Content Compared to
Other Electronic Products
Materials

13%
30% 23%

PV Displays Semicon

$35B
$35B $134B
$134B $249B
$249B

Source: Solar Buzz; Prismark


11

Materials Cost Impact on PV Cells & Modules

Bill of Materials
Other Materials (4%)
Conductive Ribbon (2%)
Reflector Paint (4%)
Cost of 1.1
Materials Junction Box (6%)
in $/W 1
Other Mat’ls (13%)
0.9
Junction Box (6%)
0.8 Encap Film (7%) Encap Film (9%)
Front Glass (7%)
0.7
Gases & Targets (12%)
Backsheet Film (10%)
0.6
Metallization Backsheet Film (13%)
0.5 Pastes (13%)
0.4 Module Frame (19%)
0.3 Silicon
0.2 Metal
TCO Front
(43%)
Glass (32%)
0.1

0
Crystalline Silicon Thin Film

2010/4/15 DUPONT Source: DuPont © DuPont


12

Strong Pipeline of Materials Innovations will
Improve System Efficiency, Cost and Lifetime

Efficiency Lifetime
N-type silicon wafers
Improved cell metallization Improved encapsulants
Higher aspect ratio metallization Improved anti-soiling/fouling coatings
Improved anti-reflective coatings More durable backsheets
Textured tabbing ribbons Better edge sealing
Improved transparent conductive oxides Higher reliability inverters
Better reflector films Thermally conductive substrates
Higher blue light transparent materials Microinverters
More temperature resistant substrates Flexible moisture barriers
Thermally conductive substrates Cost
Thinner Si wafers
Lower quality UMG (upgraded metallurgical grade) silicon
Faster lamination cycle time
Simpler mounting & racking systems
Lower moisture sensitivity encapsulants
Thinner encapsulant films
Thinner backsheet films
New backsheet constructions
Lighter weight materials


13

Materials Innovations for Higher Cell Efficiency
Materials Innovation
High Efficiency
Metallization
Pastes

Cell efficiency improvements
114

Next Gen Solamet® for
112
Double Printing • DuPont Solamet® metallization
Relative Efficiency

110 pastes enable ~2%/yr
108 efficiency improvement
106
• Double printing technology
104 accelerates efficiency gains
Solamet® Metallization
102 Product Launches

100
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011


14


Efficiency Lifetime
Thinner Si wafers


15

Materials Innovations for Lower Module Costs


Ionomer
Encapsulant
Films

Lower moisture ingress
• DuPont PV5300 ionomer
encapsulant films
introduced in 2009
Moisture (%)

• Unique properties are ideal
for glass-glass PV modules

• Cost savings of $3/panel by
Distance from Edge (cm) elimination of edge sealing



16


Efficiency Lifetime
Thinner Si wafers


17

Materials Choices Drive System Reliability & Cost
Longer-Life Systems Deliver Lower-Cost Power
100%
Relative Electricity Cost of PV System

90%

80%
Reduction in cost vs. 10 year life system
70%

60% 48%
48%

50% 58%
58%

40%
10 15 20 25 30 35 40
System Life (Years)

25 year warranties becoming standard
2010/4/15 DUPONT Source: Sunpower; DuPont © DuPont


18

Materials Innovations for Longer System Lifetime

Polyvinyl
Fluoride Films

Higher aged adhesion
160
140 0 hr • Backsheets require 25+ year
Adhesion Strength (N/cm)

120 1000 hrs adhesion under operating
100 conditions
80
60 • DuPont Tedlar® films have a
40 25+ year proven track record
20
in the field
0
All PET Single Layer Tedlar® TPT
PVDF PVF
Adhesion
Change 93% 100%
16%


19

Strong PV Market Growth Will Put Demands on
Materials Suppliers
PV Module
Production Forecast
GW 120
100
100

80
22%
CAGR
60

40 37
35%
20.4 CAGR
20 12.4 15.9
6.8 6.1 9.4
0
2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2015

2020
2010/4/15 DUPONT
Source: Applied Materials with extrapolation to 2020 © DuPont


20

Large Capacity Expansions are Required to Keep
Pace with PV Industry Growth
Balance
2020 scenario
2020 scenario
Materials Cells Modules Of Systems
(100GW/yr)
(100GW/yr) System

CapEx to
80 - 100 50 - 100 40 - 60 10 - 20 n.m.
2020 ($B)

Sales to
CapEx Ratio 1.0 - 1.2 1-2 3-5 5 - 10 n.m.

Silicon Glass Metallization Backsheet Encapsulant
Pastes
CapEx + $60B
+ $60B + $8B
+ $8B + $9B
+ $9B + $6B
+ $6B + $6B
+ $6B

2010/4/15 DUPONT
Source: DuPont © DuPont


21

Implications for PV Industry to 2020

Materials are critical component of PV systems

Materials are essential to PV industry’s future roadmap:
• Improved Efficiency
• Reduced Cost
• Longer Lifetime

Materials companies serving the PV market need:
• Strong technology & fast-paced innovation capability
• Sufficient capital for capacity expansions
• Global footprint to serve customers’ growth



22


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