1. Pakistan Air Force Institue Of Economics & Textile
Economic Evaluation
of Democracies &
Dictatorships
Course: Management Operations Of Pakistan Economy
Group Members:
1. Haider Ali Shah
2. Hasnain Amir Ali
3. Rahim Amir Ali
4. Tabraiz Khawar
5. Shehroz Sikandar

2. Acknowledgement
Me and my group members have put our best efforts for the successful completion of this
project assigned to us as the class project of the course Management Operations Of Pakistan
Economy by our respected instructor Sir Riaz Ahmad. In Pakistan the wise ones have spent
years debating on what is best for our country democracy or dictatorship but there hasn’t been
a single research that evaluated the economic aspects of each of these forms. This report
focuses on evaluating the economic performance of democratic governments and dictatorships
in pakistan.
I am highly indebted to my University PAF-KIET and my instructor for giving me this opportunity
to work on this very critical issue as this is one of the problems that should be examined very
carefully and I believe that this report would provide substantial amount of information to
those who wish to work on the same topic.

3. Introduction
It has been 64 years since the creation of Pakistan and in this huge time span Pakistan has seen
three military dictatorships and four democratic governments but still the debate of which is
best for Pakistan Democracy or Dictatorship is still on fire and we haven’t reached any
conclusion of issues. Social implications of both the forms of governments have been
experienced by the majority of people living in Pakistan but we completely lack a study which
determines the economic implications of these forms of governments and comparatively
analyze the economic performance of the various democratic governments and military
dictatorships. This report has been made in order to fulfill the above mentioned purpose i.e. to
examine what were the economic merits and demerits of these governments.
In this report we will be evaluating the economic performance of governments of Pakistan from
the year 1977 to 2007 using six important economic indicators which are GDP, Inflation, GDP
growth rate ,literacy, Poverty and employment. In the above mentioned period starting from
1977 to 2007 we have seen two democratic governments and two military dictatorship eras
therefore by the detail examination of these 30 years we will be able to develop a pretty clear
idea that what actually is better for Pakistan democracy or dictatorship from an economist’s
perspective. Since the basic purpose of this report is determine which proved the best
therefore the natural disasters that took place in each of the governments and their intensity
will also be taken into consideration Below is the brief introduction to these two democratic
governments and two dictatorships which were in charge during the year 1977-2007:
1. 1977-1988 Zia- Ul-Haq’s Era: This period starting from 1977-1988 is regarded
as the second dictatorship era in the history of Pakistan as the first one was Ayub Khan’s
era, it is also called the era of Islamization. General Zia-Ul-Haq took over as the
president of Pakistan in 1977 after getting Shaheed Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto hanged till death.
His period of power is also regarded as the era of Islamization because immediately
after getting hold of presIdentship of Pakistan he introduced strict Islamic Laws such as
creation of Majlis-e-Shaura and exclusion of Ahmadi’s from the muslim faith. People
regard Zia as one of the good leaders and president of Pakistan. Unfortunately in Zia’s
rule Pakistan was hit by three earth quakes in 1977,1978 and 1988 and the number of
people effected were 1,022,000, 2,246,000 and 1,000,000 respectively which shows that
natural disasters played a critical role in damaging the overall economic performance of

4. Zia rule. The second military dictatorship in Pakistan ended in 1988 when General Zia-Ul-
Haq died in a plane crash.
2. 1988-1999 Third Democratic Era: This decade is regarded as the third
democratic era in this period of approximately eleven years Pakistan’s political history
experienced two democratic government twice i.e Late Mohtarma Benazir Bhutto and
Nawaz Sharif ruled Pakistan alternatively each being elected twice with heavy mandate
of the people.
First Democratic Rule 1988-1990: After the death of Zia-UlHaq the first open
elections were held in November 1988 and the Pakistan Peoples Party won the
elections with heavy mandate. The political understanding between the
president of Pakistan at that time which was Ghulam Ishaq Khan and Benzir
Bhutto never looked stable and Khan in 1990 using the eighteenth amendment
dismissed her from the post of Prime Minister Of Pakistan. In these three years
of PPP no major natural disaster was observed.
Second Democratic Rule 1990-1993: After the Mohtarma Benazir Bhutto was
deposed by Khan another parliamentary elections were held by the election
commission of Pakistan and in the result of those elections for the first time in
history of Pakistan PML(N) got the chance to rule the country but in 1993 Nawaz
government encountered a similar fate and was deposed by Khan. During
Nawaz Rule Pakistan two floods and a wind storm and approximately 20 million
people were affected.
Third Democratic Rule 1993-1996: After Nawaz Sharif was Deposed elections
were held again and Pakistan Peoples Party stood victorious and Mohtarma
Benazir Bhutto became the Prime Minister. It is said that during this rule of
Mohtarma the corruption was at its height and in 1996 President Farooq Laghari
deposed this government.

5. Fourth Democratic Rule 1997-1999: In 1997 Parliamentary elections were held
and as result of which Pakistan Muslim League(Nawaz) won the elections with
heavy mandate with Nawaz Shareef became the Prime minister of Pakistan for
the second time in the history of Pakistan. Nuclear tests were one of the
important achievements of his rule. In 1999 President Musharaf took over the
government and Nawaz Shareef along with his family was sent to Saudi Arabia.
In 1998 his government experienced a great flood.
3. Third Military Era 2001 -2008: After evacuation of Nawaz Sharif , General ,
Musharaf took the control of the government and legitimized his rule due to elections
held in 2002 brought PML(Q) into the government who proved to be loyal supporters of
President Musharaf and he ruled Pakistan for more than 8 years. During his rule there
were two major natural disasters and in those natural disasters approx 4 million people
were affected.

6. Economic Perspective
1. 1977-1988 Zia- Ul-Haq’s Era: This period starting from 1977-1988 is
regarded as the second dictatorship era in the history of Pakistan as the first one was
Ayub Khan’s era, it is also called the era of Islamization
GDP
45,000,000,000.00
40,000,000,000.00
35,000,000,000.00
30,000,000,000.00
25,000,000,000.00
20,000,000,000.00 GDP (current US$)
15,000,000,000.00
10,000,000,000.00
5,000,000,000.00
0.00
1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988
Electricity production (kWh)
40,000,000,000.00
30,000,000,000.00
20,000,000,000.00
Electricity production (kWh)
10,000,000,000.00
0.00
197719781979198019811982198319841985198619871988

7. GDP growth
12
10
8
6
4 GDP growth
2
0
1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988
Inflation
15
10
5 Inflation
0
1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988
Unemployment
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
2 Unemployment
1.5
1
0.5
0
1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988

8. Observations
Under the rule of Zia-Ul-Haq for the period of ten year the GDP of Pakistan was on the
increasing trend during the ten years of Zia-Ul-Haq’s rule the GDP of Pakistan increased
by 154% while the average GDP growth rate was 6.5%.
Electricity Production during Zia-Ul-Haq’s Era increased by 200% in the ten years which
shows that Electricity production was given much preference by him.
The data of inflation shows that that the in this ten year rule the average inflation
rate/year was 7% while in these ten years a negative growth of 13% can be seen in the
observed.
The unemployment rate also decreased by 27% in the ten year of Zia-Ul-Haq.

9. 2. 1988-1999 Third Democratic Era: This decade is regarded as the
third democratic era in this period of approximately eleven years Pakistan’s political
history experienced two democratic government twice i.e Late Mohtarma Benazir
Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif ruled Pakistan alternatively each being elected twice with
heavy mandate of the people.
First Democratic Rule 1988-1990 (PPP):
GDP (current US$) Electricity production
4.02E+10 (kWh)
4.015E+1
3.8E+10
4.01E+10
3.7E+10
4.005E+1 GDP
3.6E+10
(current Electricity
4E+10 3.5E+10
US$) production
3.995E+1 3.4E+10 (kWh)
3.99E+10 3.3E+10
1989 1990 1989 1990
GDP growth Inflation
5 9.5
4.8 9
8.5
4.6 GDP
8 Inflation
4.4 growth
7.5
4.2 7
1989 1990 1989 1990

10. Unemployment
4
3
2 Unemployme
1 nt
0
1989 1990
Observations:
During this two years rule of Mohtarma Benazir Bhutto it is observed that the
GDP of Pakistan declined by 2% GDP growth rate also declined by 10%.
There was an increase in the production of electricity but only by 8%
There was an increase in the inflation and inflation during those two years
increased by 15%.
In the short ruling period of Mohtarma Benazir Bhutto the unemployment in
Pakistan decreased by 18%.

11. Second Democratic Rule 1990-1993(PML):
GDP (current US$) Electricity production (kWh)
5.2E+10 6E+10
5E+10 5E+10
4E+10
4.8E+10
3E+10 Electricity
4.6E+10 GDP (current
2E+10 productio
US$)
4.4E+10 n (kWh)
1E+10
4.2E+10 0
1991 1992 1993 1991 1992 1993
GDP growth Inflation
10 15
8
6 10
4 GDP growth Inflation
5
2
0 0
1991 1992 1993 1991 1992 1993
Unemployment
7
6
5
4
3 Unemployment
2
1
0
1991 1992 1993

12. Observations :
The three years ruled by PML(N) and Mian Nawaz Sharif show that in these three years
the GDP of Pakistan increased by 18.3% while the average growth rate per year was
4.3% per year.
Electricity production in this government increased by 23% which was a significant
increase in the amount of electricity produced.
Another positive about this government was that the inflation decreased by 15.2% while
the average rate of inflation per year was 10%.
The average unemployment during PML(N) government rate was 5.1% which is much
greated compared to the PPP government.

13. 3. Third Military Era 2001 -2008: After evacuation of Nawaz Sharif , General ,
Musharaf took the control of the government and legitimized his rule due to elections
held in 2002 brought PML(Q) into the government who proved to be loyal supporters of
President Musharaf and he ruled Pakistan for more than 8 years.
GDP (current US$)
2E+11
1.5E+11
1E+11
GDP (current US$)
5E+10
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Electricity production (kWh)
1.2E+11
1E+11
8E+10
6E+10
4E+10 Electricity production (kWh)
2E+10
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
GDP growth
10
8
6
4 GDP growth
2
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

14. Inflation
25
20
15
10 Inflation
5
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Unemployment
10
8
6
4 Unemployment
2
0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2007 2008
Observations:
Gen Pervez Musharaf ruled the country for a period of 8 years and during these eight
years there was a massive increase in the GDP of Pakistan by 120%.
The increase in the electricity production during Musharaf rule wasn’t that effective
because in the period of eight years it only increased by 30%.
The inflation in musharaf rule was very well controlled except for 2008 when the rate of
inflation was increased to 20% while the average inflation rate per year during his rule
was 7%.
Though the unemployment increased for few years but then it was well controlled and
in in rule the unemployment decreased by the 1% as compared to the previous
government.

15. Comparative Analysis
In this section of the report all the governments that were in power during their rule in the
analyzed thirty years i.e. from 1977 to 2007 we will compare the average of the five economic
indicators of each oh the governments to the other governments:
1. GDP( US Dollars):
GDP (current US$)
1.2E+11
1E+11
8E+10
6E+10 GDP (current US$)
4E+10
2E+10
0
Zia UI Haq PPP PML(N) Musharaf
The graph for the shows that the of Pakistan was highest during the Musharaf rule as
compared to the other governments which were in power in these thirty years as well
the growth rate was also better as compared to PPP, PML(N) and Zia-Ul-Haq’s
government.

16. 2. Electricity Production:
Average Electricity production (kWh)
1E+11
8E+10
6E+10
Electricity production (kWh)
4E+10
2E+10
0
Zia UI Haq PPP PML(N) Musharaf
Although the graph shows that electricity production during Zia’s Rule was low it does has a low
average electricity production Value per year but during Zia’s rule the electricity production
increased by 200% and considering the low population at that time the electricity produced was
enough to cater the requirements of the people. While the average electricity production
during the rule of PPP,PML(N) was much greater than Zia’s graph but their growth rate are very
low as compared to General Zia-Ul-Haq’s rule.

17. 3. GDP Growth Rate:
GDP growth
10
8
6
GDP growth
4
2
0
Zia UI Haq PPP PML(N) Musharaf
This graph shows the average growth rate per year of all the four governments and it shows that PPP
and PML(N) had the highest GDP growth rate of about 8% and 10% respectively but it cannot be
ignored that PPP and PML(N) only ruled for 2 and 4 years respectively there Zia-ul-Haq’s GDP growth
rate cannot be ignored as considering the number of years in his rule it can be said that the GDP growth
rate he maintained was not very bad.

18. 4. Inflation Rate:
Inflation
12
10
8
6 Inflation
4
2
0
Zia UI Haq PPP PML(N) Musharaf
The graph for the inflation rate shows that both the democratic governments i.e. PPP
and PML(N) had higher average inflation rate per year as compared to the inflation rate
of the military dictatorships i.e. Musharaf and Zia-Ul-Haq’s and the highest average was
during the PPP rule.

19. 5. Unemployment Rate:
Unemployment
7
6
5
4
Unemployment
3
2
1
0
Zia UI Haq PPP PML(N) Musharaf
The Graph of unemployment shows that the rule of mushraf had the highest
unemployment rate as compared to the governments of Zia-Ul-Haq, PPP and PML(N).

20. Conclusion
After extensive research on the topic and and careful evaluation of each form of government
and each and every political party government the following things were concluded:
In terms of GDP the highest growth was observed during the rule of Musharaf and Zia-
Ul-Haq which shows that if we consider GDP as the factor for evaluation of governments
then dictatorship proves a better option.
The second economic indicator used in this report is Electricity production which also
indicates the highest growth rates in the terms of electricity production was under the
government of Musharaf and Zia-Ul-Haq therefore this factor also supports dictatorship.
Our third economic indicator in in this report is inflation and it also indicates that the
inflation rates were low and controlled under the governments of Musharaf and Zia as
compared to government of PPP and PML(N) therefore this factor also supports
dictatorship as a better form of government.
Unemployment is the fifth economic factor which we have used to evaluate
governments in the past thirty years and this also shows that the unemployment was
least during the rule of Zia-Ul-Haq while Musharaf had the highest unemployment rates.
After considering the above mentioned points we have reached to the conclusion in the
previous thirty years the best government according the selected economic indicators was the
government of Zia-Ul-Haq while Musharaf also did well as compared to PPP and PML(N) and it
can be said that dictatorship has proven as a better form of government for Pakistan.