Future of Screens at EXPO2010

Notes de l'éditeur

1. Hi, I want to show you two things today: The first is how information will be apparent everywhere around us, on computers in different forms and shapes, on objects we don’t see as computers, and on everyday things. The second is how there are new ways of interacting with these new computers, and this is where the revolution will be. I think you will see that it is like a dance between the Devices and the Internet, and how this dance evolves both of them in ways we didn’t believe possible a few years ago. 大家好！今天我想告诉你们两件事情：一是如何让信息以显而易见的方式出现在我们身边的任何地方，在不同形式和形状的计算机上，在没被我们当作计算机的物体上，以及在日常物品上。 二是如何才会拥有与这些新型计算机互动的新途径，这就是将要发生变革的地方。 我想您会明白，这就像各种设备和互联网在共舞中发展，而这种发展几年前我们还认为不可能。
2. So who am I? My name is Hampus Jakobsson and I am one of the founders of the Swedish design and technology company TAT. TAT was founded 2002, and is now 180 people in Sweden, USA, Korea, Taiwan and Japan. Our technology is in every seventh mobile phone built worldwide and shipping from companies like Nokia, Samsung, Motorola, and Sony Ericsson. To date more than 500 million phones. Other customers include Google, Orange, T-mobile, Paypal, and Volvo. So we don’t only do mobile phones, but cars, tablets, and other electronics. Enough about us. Let’s start our journey together by looking backwards on the history and present of how we interact with machines. 那么，我是谁呢？我叫汉普斯·雅克布森，是瑞典设计和技术公司TAT的创始人之一。TAT公司创建于2002年，现由来自瑞典、美国、韩国、台湾和日本的180人组成。在世界各地生产的诺基亚、三星、摩托罗拉和索尼爱立信等公司的移动电话中，每七部就会有一部使用我们的技术。目前TAT公司有超过5亿移动电话用户，其他用户包括谷歌、贝宝和沃尔沃。所以我们不仅面向移动电话，也面向汽车、平板电脑和其它电子技术。 关于我们说得够多了，让我们一起开始回顾之旅吧。
3. The first computers where really dedicated machines. Each designed to handle a specific task. And the input and output were tailored to this - each function had a dedicated button and the output would show a very limited set of things. 第一代计算机是真正的专用计算机，在设计上每台计算机只执行一个特定的任务。输入和输出均针对任务定制——每个功能对应一个专用按钮，屏幕只能显示非常有限的信息。
4. As computers grew more competent, and ended up in more and more situations, they turned from single purpose machines to more as we see them today - with multiple uses through varied applications. To operate these, suddenly a much more general purpose input was needed. The problem with these computers were that they demanded a lot from the user. Manual reading, remembering computer commands, and so forth. 当计算机变得更为强大，并能够处理越来越多的情况时，它们也就从单一用途的机器发展为我们今天看到的可支持不同应用程序的多用途计算机。为了方便操作这些计算机，更通用的输入方式立刻变得非常必要。 这种计算机的问题在于它们对用户要求很高，如手工方式阅读，记住计算机命令，等等。
5. And the graphical user interface was invented! The mouse. Windows instead of text. Suddenly we got a direct manipulation of the objects and actions we wanted, and didn’t have to remember complex commands. 在发明了图形用户界面后，鼠标和视窗取代了文本。突然之间，我们就能直接控制我们希望操作的对象和动作，而不必记忆复杂的命令了。
6. And since then, for 20 years, our computers hasn’t changed a lot. They are prettier and cheaper. 从那时起，我们的计算机就没有发生很大的变化。它们只是变得更漂亮、更便宜。
7. Let’s do the same journey in the mobile industry - the first mobile phones also lacked richness of interaction - they also had dedicated keys to each function. And it was good - since a mobile phone had a handful functions, you could map a key to each without making the devices complex. They were dedicated devices. 让我们也回顾一下移动行业的发展历程。第一台移动电话同样缺乏丰富的用户交互功能 — 它也用专用键来对应每个功能。但这还不错，因为这时的移动电话只有很少的功能，您不需使设备变得复杂，也能把键映射到每个功能。它们就是专用设备。
8. But as the number of functions increased on a mobile phone, the user interface was not sufficient. It was not possible to map keys to everything - and the menu was introduced. This was all great, but as mobile phones increased in complexity the cognitive burden increased. 但是，随着移动电话功能的增加，这种用户界面就不够用了。这时不可能用键映射所有功能，于是就引入了菜单方式。这非常了不起，但随着移动电话复杂性的继续提升，其认知负担也加重了。
9. And we kept on adding features without changing the way we interacted with phones for 10 years till 2007 when we reached a maximum. When the functions a phone had were almost unknown and impossible to overview to anybody but the writers of the manual. And then... 我们一直延续这种人机交互的方式，并不断地在移动电话上添加新的功能。直到2007年，这种方式已达到极限。这时候，除了撰写用户手册的作者，几乎没有人能知道，也不可能有人能全面了解一台移动电话的所有功能。那么，接下来…
10. ... again direct manipulation was introduced. This time in the mobile industry. And the mobile market did a jump and removed the mouse and used the finger for direct interaction. So really direct interaction. Apple surprised the whole industry by introducing a mobile phone much less capable than the average phone on the market - lacking wifi, 3G, a camera worthy taking pictures with and so on. And it surprised everybody even more that there was demand for these simple to use but feature-weak devices. And a great demand as we know today. What was the feature that made the system tip over and make keys impossible? For each function we added - camera, radio, email - there was keys enough. I would say it was the Internet. Because as we really introduced Internet into the mobile world, the number of functions grew from hundreds to infinite. No-one can predict, when building a truly internet capable and open device, what people will use it for. So the paradigm had to change. And the interesting thing is that this way of interacting - touch screens - suddenly showed to be the new way of interacting in general. It was a much more natural way. So suddenly the mobile industry led the user interface paradigm of computing to something new. 移动电话再次引入了直接操控。这是整个移动行业发展的重大时刻。移动市场也飞跃式地发展，不再使用鼠标，而是直接使用手指来直接进行人机交互。这是真正的直接互动。 苹果公司让整个业界吃惊的是，其移动电话的功能远不及市场上的普通移动电话，没有无线网络连接、3G以及用于拍照的摄像头等。更令人震撼的是，市场需要这种使用简便但功能不强的产品。正如今天我们所了解的，这种需求非常大。 是什么特性颠覆了移动电话系统的概念，而使按键成为过去了呢？（*停顿*）对于我们添加的每个功能——摄像头、收音机和电子邮件，有足够的键就行了。我想说的这一功能就是互联网，因为当我们真正把互联网引入到移动世界时，功能的数量从数以百计增加至无穷。没人能预测，当造出一个真正具有互联网功能的开放设备时，人们将如何使用它。所以我们必须改变传统的观念。 另外一个有趣的事情就是触摸屏这种交互方式，总体来说这是让人耳目一新的交互方式，它更为自然。因此，移动业界一下子把计算设备的用户界面概念引入了一个新的层面。
11. As the two industries converge with the common factor of Internet-use, it changes computers and mobile devices as we know them - the tablets are born. This is true mobile computing. And nobody really knows what it means. A week doesn’t pass without some wise person calling tablets a temporary thing - a fad. But at the same time they cannibalize both industries. Internet converged the two industries computer and mobile, but as you soon will see it doesn’t end there. First the industries converged, but we are now at the brink of an explosion. 当这两种产业在使用互联网这一共性上会聚时，就同时改变了计算机和我们熟知的移动设备 — 平板电脑诞生了。这是真正的移动计算设备。没有人真正明白这意味着什么。很快，没有一个智者会把平板电脑只是看作一款暂时性的产品 — 一种时尚。而与此同时，平板电脑侵占了上述两种产业的领地。 互联网使计算机和移动这两个行业走到了一起，但您很快就会发现互联网的作用不会仅限于此。一开始是这两个行业会聚在一起，而现在则是处于发生爆炸式反应的边缘。
12. We now have new devices that are neither computers nor mobile phones. But new dedicated devices. Transformed by Internet and the wisdom of interaction designers. Like the Kindle. E-ink is one of the things that tell me why we will have screens everywhere. Because if dressing this wall, floor or ceiling wouldn’t be expensive, and showing information there does not consume battery, why should they not be “screens”. Desks will be the first non-computer to be dressed with e-ink, I believe. 现在我们拥有了既不是计算机也不是移动电话的新设备，这是经过互联网和人机交互设计师的智慧转化而来的新的专用设备，比如Kindle电子书阅读器。包括电子墨水在内的许多东西告诉我，为什么我们将到处使用屏幕，因为如果装修这种墙壁、地板或天花板的费用并不大，并且在这些地方显示信息也不消耗电池，为什么不把它们做成“屏幕”呢。我相信，课桌将是采用电子墨水的第一种非计算机设备。
13. And screens just showing what is on another screen, but correct to the context will be more common. Like this new device, LiveView, from Sony Ericsson. It is a “remote screen”, which allows you to see and interact with selected parts of your mobile phone when jogging or just walking around. Our home television might turn into this as well, just an extension of another device. 这些屏幕仅显示另一个屏幕上的内容，但是对显示内容进行修改的需求将变得越来越普遍。比如索尼爱立信的这款设备，它是“远程屏幕”，可以在您慢跑或走动时让您看见手机中的选定部分并与之互动。我们的家庭电视也可以转变为这种形式，仅仅是另一种设备的延伸。
14. Or this keyboard from Art. Lebedev Studio - where dedicated keys are back. But this time it is the user that set them. The keys are screens. And not is not happening just in devices and computers. Let’s look at what will happen with cars. 或者我们来看看这款Art. Lebedev Studio 键盘，我们会发现专用键又回归了。但现在键的功能由用户设定。键本身就是屏幕。不仅仅是设备和计算机才是如此，让我们再来看看与汽车结合将发生什么。
15. Why are not the rearview mirrors screens? Flashing red when someone is in your blind spot and you are ready to turn left. Or showing really that the “objects in mirror are closer than they appear”. 为什么不将汽车后视镜设计成屏幕呢？当某人出现在您的盲区以及您准备往左转时，它就会闪红灯。或者实际显示出“在后视镜中看到的物体比它们看上去距离更近”。
16. Or why is not the windshield a screen. Instead of looking down at the GPS, you would follow the red cable in they sky where to drive. 或者，为什么不将汽车挡风玻璃设计成屏幕呢？我们将沿着挡风玻璃屏幕上的红线行驶，而不用低头看GPS。
17. Or why aren’t buses or trucks screens? So that we could see obstacles or other cars through them? 或者，为什么不将公共汽车或卡车设计成屏幕呢？这样，我们就能通过它们看到障碍物或其它汽车了？
18. But let’s take a step back. A lot of these screens I showed you are on a surface or device you can touch. What about these new 3DTVs? How do you interact here? We will have screens or information projected to surfaces where there aren’t screens. But how do you interact with these? Or projected screens? Or in a while, holographic screens? When then the object is in mid-air and not on a surface? That means you would need some kind of super smart computer that would recognize your movements and guess what you mean and map that to the information. Some kind of science fiction artificial intelligence. When will this come along? 但是，让我们后退一步吧。我向你们展示的这么多屏幕都在您能触摸到的表面或设备上。那么如果是这些新的3D电视呢？您将如何与其交互呢？我们把屏幕内容或信息投射到没有屏幕的表面上。但是您将如何与之互动呢？或者投射屏幕？或不久之后的全息屏幕？到那个时候，物体将在空中而不在表面上？ 这意味着您将需要某种超级智能计算机，这样才能识别您的动作并猜测您的意向，并将此映射到信息。这有点像科幻小说中的某种人工智能。这些将在什么时候实现呢？
19. Well, Microsoft are selling it to your kids as we speak, and the product is called Kinect and is a part of the XBOX360 game console. With a handful of cameras and AI they are building a computer model of your body. So you can interact with machines like you interact with people. Right now. In your living room. And this cost something like five thousand Yuan. 好，在我们说话的时候，微软正在把这款设备卖给你们的孩子，这款被称之为Kinect的产品是XBOX360 游戏机的一部分，它通过使用数个摄像头和人工智能根据您的身体建立计算机模型。因此，您就能像和人互动一样和机器互动。现在，您客厅的这款产品价值约5000元。
20. So, the future will be about information everywhere. And the user interface is the main differentiator. Let’s look at a normal day 2014. Gesture interaction. Flexible screens. Mirrors that are screens. That recognize and log in you with face recognition. Controlled with gestures so that you don’t smear the mirror. Large transparent surfaces that are screens. Desks that are screens. This with electronic ink. Devices that pair by proximity. And devices that can see the orientation of other devices for seamless interaction. 所以，未来将到处都是信息。用户界面将是主要的区别。 让我们看一下2014年的普通一天。手势互动。柔性屏幕。镜子成为屏幕。这样的屏幕将使用人脸识别技术对您进行身份验证并允许您进入。您可用打手势的方式对镜子屏幕进行控制，这样就不会将镜子弄花了。大而透明的表面成为屏幕。课桌是屏幕，采用的是电子墨水。 通过近似度来对应设备。还有一些设备，为了进行更无缝的交互，可以看见其它设备的运行方向。
21. Thank you! If you want to contact me or work with TAT, here are our contact details: 谢谢！ 如果你们想联系我或与TAT合作，可通过以下方式：