Developer Data Modeling Mistakes: From Postgres to NoSQL
Ana Liza Solis Climate Monitoring and Prediction - PAGASA/DOST
1. Ana Liza Solis Climate Monitoring and Prediction - PAGASA/DOST Source :
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3. Definition of Terms Weather - is the specific condition of the atmosphere or “actual state” at a particular place and time. Climate - is the “average weather” or normal state of the atmosphere and its long term variability over a particular period (say over month, a season, a year or several years)
4. (Global) Climate System – interactive system consisting of 5 major components, forced or influenced by various external forcings (i.e.,sun and human activity) Cryosphere
5. Global warming refers to the increase in the earth’s mean temperature due to the so-called enhanced greenhouse effect.
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7. Source: OSTP Water vapor and carbon dioxide (CO2) are the two most abundant natural heat-trapping gases in our atmosphere. These and other gases keep the Earth’s surface about 60°F (33 °C) warmer than it otherwise would be. Without this natural greenhouse or blanket effect, life as we know it would not be possible Land,vege, ocean,etc. trapped by Sunlight - heat energy
19. Global mean temperatures are rising faster with time Period Rate Years /decade Source: IPCC 100 0.074 0.018 50 0.128 0.026 Warmest 12 years: 1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,2006, 2001,1997,1995,1999, 1991 ,2000
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22. Manifestations of Climate Change Melting of Glaciers Arctic sea ice area decreased by 2.7% per decade
23. sets of observational evidence supporting the assessment that climate change is happening
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26. Manifestations of Climate Change The Thames Barrier , a major flood defense system in London designed to be used once every two to three years is now being used six times a year due to increased rainfall. More Rains Forecast As England And Wales See Wettest Months Since 1766 Henley-On-Thames, England (AFP) July 26, 2007
27. Manifestations of Climate Change … Tornados wreak havoc in the North Island Stuff.co.nz | Recently….July 2007 Chilean Lake Vanishes in Two Months By Eduardo Gallardo Buenos Aires has first snow since 1918 James Sturcke and agencies July 10, 2007 Guardian Unlimited ICE WORLD Tibetian Warming Trend Gaining Pace Tibet's sensitive alpine environment is seen as a key barometer of the world's climate. by Staff Writers Beijing (AFP) Jul 23, 2007 Deadly Monsoon Rains Worst in 25 Years NEW DELHI, India ,
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30. HIGHLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO TYPHOONS – LOCATED WITHIN PACIFIC TYPHOON BELT AREA VISITED BY AVERAGE 20 TYPHOONS EVERY YEAR With the projected increase in temperature this could mean much stronger and more intense tropical cyclones. 1128 Actual tracks
31. The Philippines has not been spared of the weather-related disturbances and disasters. The past typhoons have been unusually heavy and devastating to our country and our people. TY Reming (DURIAN) source:www.albay.gov.ph/reming NOV 2006 Typhoon Frank (Fengshen) June 21, 2008. (MV Princess of the Stars) www.
32. LANDSLIDES MUD FLOWS SINCE 2003 AT LEAST 3,000 PEOPLE DIED DUE TO LANDSLIDES AND MUD FLOWS.
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34. Observed Temperature Anomalies in the Philippines Period: 1951-2006 (departures from the 1961-1990 normal values) almost 3 times increase in maximum temperatures BACKGROUND INFORMATION: observed changes An increase of 0.6104C from 1951-2006 ANNUAL MEAN TEMPERATURE MEAN ANNUAL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE An increase of 0.3472C from 1951-2006 MEAN ANNUAL MINIMUM TEMPERATURE An increase of 0.8904C from 1951-2006
50. “ Long-range planning does not deal with future decisions, but with the future of present decisions.” Peter Drucker WMO/OMM
51. Thank you “ tracking the sky . . . helping the country” The real cause of the melting ice caps
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58. DEVELOPMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS WHAT MIGHT HAPPEN TO THE PHILIPPINES AT THE END OF 21 ST CENTURY?
59. Temperature Projection 1.8-3 C increase 1.8-3 C increase 2.1-2.7 C increase 2.1-2.7 C increase Increase in entire archipelago; Greater increase in MAM FUTURE (2075-2099) Solis,2009 (Capacity Development for Adaptation to Climate Change in Asia-Climate Change Analysis)
60. RAINFALL SCENARIO END OF 21 ST CENTURY JFM - An increase in rainfall (0.5 - 2 mm/day) decrease over the mountainous areas ( W.Luzon ) Eastern part wet, will be more wet more dry increase + Areas statistically significant at 95% level AMJ - Rainfall reduction in entire archipelago (5 - 20%); greater decrease over Luzon and the mountainous areas
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63. Intensity of precipitation events is projected to increase. Even in areas where mean precipitation decreases, precipitation intensity is projected to increase but there would be longer periods between rainfall events. “ It rains less frequently, but when it does rain, there is more precipitation for a given event.” (Tebaldi et al. 2006) Extremes will have more impact than changes in mean climate
64. Intensity of precipitation events is projected to increase. Even in areas where mean precipitation decreases, precipitation intensity is projected to increase but there would be longer periods between rainfall events. “ It rains less frequently, but when it does rain, there is more precipitation for a given event.” (Tebaldi et al. 2006) Extremes will have more impact than changes in mean climate
74. INTERNATIONAL RESPONSE TO ADDRESS CLIMATE CHANGE 1990 1 st IPCC report - the planet seems to be warming - Human activity seems to be responsible for it 1992 2 nd Earth Summit, Rio de Janeiro - UNFCCC was adopted - Call for a stabilization of GHG emissions by 2000 1994 UNFCCC entered into force - Philippines ratified UNFCCC 1997 Kyoto Protocol was adopted at COP 3, Kyoto Conference 2005 Kyoto Protocol entered into force 2007 4 th IPCC report - Equivocally, the planet is warming due to man-made activities
75. 2007 Bali roadmap adopted at COP 13, Bali Conference 2008 Poznan Conference (Poland) 2009 Copenhagen Protocol expected - 2 nd KP commitment period INTERNATIONAL RESPONSE TO ADDRESS CLIMATE CHANGE
Editor's Notes
Greenhouse is made of glass or strong semi-transparent plastic material. When the sun shines, it produces energy in the form of sunlight, passes thru the glass and heats inside of that greenhouse, the ground, plants, vegetable, etc. Some of IR is absorbed, but most of it escapes to space.
global average air temperature increased by 0.74°C from 1906 to 2005 Strong temperature increase since 1975 (unprecedented)
Global mean temperatures has increased; b. Sea levels are rising; and c. Snow cover in Arctic has decreased
More intense and increase in frequency of events
These are based on what has been observed locally, so we need local impact assessment of future changes in climate. That’s why there is an increasing demand…
Our available data shows that there is an increasing trend in the number of tropical cyclones in the Visayas and decreasing trend in Mindanao. There is no trend in the number of tropical cyclones in Luzon. In general, there is no trend in the total number of annual tropical cyclones in the Philippines (the blue bar represents 1951-1980 30-year total number of TC, pink bar represents 1961-1990 30-year total TC, and yellow shows the 1971-2000 30-year total TC).
Increase in incidence of diseases in animals and crops Availability of food could decline; Prices will rise as a result; Employment opportunities may become less; More people could face hunger and starvation
increase in malnutrition mixed effects on malaria increase number of people at risk with dengue
DJF – 1.8- 3 Mam- 1.8 3 Jja 2.1-2.7 Son2.1-2.7
There are few significant decreases in hot days at coastal stations (Aparri, Virac, Puerto Princesa)
Increase in incidence of diseases in animals and crops Availability of food could decline; Prices will rise as a result; Employment opportunities may become less; More people could face hunger and starvation
increase in malnutrition mixed effects on malaria increase number of people at risk with dengue
