Y376 International Political Economy, Lecture #13 February 22, 2011

1. Y376 IPE: Oil Politics February 22, 2011

2. World Energy Consumption, 1965-2005, in Terawatts (TW)

3. Projected Future Energy Use

4. Top Consuming Countries, 1960-2005, in Million Barrels per Day

5. Addiction to Oil

6. Figure 9-5. World Consumption of Petroleum, 1960-2005, in Millions of Barrels per Day Source: U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Agency, International Energy Annual (various years).

7. OPEC Headquarters, Vienna Sheik Ahmed Zaki Yamani

8. Table 9-1. Members of OPEC Country Membership Algeria 1969 Angola 2007 Ecuador 1973-92, Rejoined 2008 Indonesia 1962, quit 2009 Iran 1960 Iraq 1960 Kuwait 1960 Libya 1962 Nigeria 1971 Qatar 1961 Saudi Arabia 1960 United Arab Emirates 1967 Venezuela 1960

10. Major Crude Oil Reserves, 2006 Source: Jean-Paul Rodrigue, Dept. of Economics & Geography, Hofstra University

11. Figure 9-4. Production of Crude Petroleum by OPEC Countries, 1970-2007, in Millions of Barrels per Day Source: U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Agency, International Energy Annual (various years).

12. Figure 9-7. OPEC and Non-OPEC Oil Production, 1970-2007, in Millions of Barrels per Day Source: Department of Energy, Energy Information Agency, International Energy Annual (various years).

13. Non-OPEC Oil Production, 1900-2003

14. Major Oil Routes & Chokepoints, 2000 Middle East North America Latin America Africa Western Europe Former Soviet Union Pacific Asia 15 10 3 1 Million barrels per day Hormuz Malacca Bab el-Mandab Suez Bosphorus Panama Source: Jean-Paul Rodrigue, Dept. of Economics & Geography, Hofstra University

15. Price of Oil, Nominal and Real 1861-2006, $ per Barrel Source: Wikipedia.

16. Oil Prices, 1987-2011

17. Figure 9-14. U.S. Gasoline Prices in Current and Constant 2007 Prices, 1919-2007, in Cents per Gallon Source: Department of Energy, Energy Information Agency, Short Term Energy Outlook , August 2008.

18. Gasoline Prices in Pennies per Gallon, 1973-2010

19. Non-OPEC Supply and Oil Prices

20. Real Price of Oil and Major Disruptions in World Oil Supply

21. Figure 9-8. U.S. Production, Consumption, and Imports of Crude Petroleum, 1949-2007, in Millions of Barrels per Day Source: Department of Energy, Energy Information Agency, International Energy Annual (various years).

23. Seven Sisters: Old and New Chevron acquired Gulf in 1985 and Texaco in 2001 Exxon acquired Mobil in 1999 The old Seven Sisters became the four “Supermajors” Old New British Petroleum China National Petroleum (China) Gulf Gazprom (Russia) Royal Dutch Shell National Iranian Oil Company Standard Oil of California (Socal/Chevron) Petrobras (Brazil) Standard Oil of New Jersey (Esso/Exxon) PDVSA (Venezuela) Standard Oil of New York (Mobil) Petronas (Malaysia) Texaco Saudi Aramco (Saudi Arabia)

25. Oil Prices have less impact on US Economy This doesn’t mean the US is consuming less oil, just that it is more efficient at utilizing oil to produce

29. Two Pipelines in Greater Detail Main participants in these two pipelines: Tengiz to Novorossiysk Russian Federation 24% Repub. Of Kazakhstan 19% Sultanate of Oman 7% Chevron 15% LUKARCO 12.5% Rosneft/Shell 7.5% Mobil 7.5% Agip 2% Turkmenistan to Pakistan: Unocal, Gazprom, Hyundai, Itochu, Delta Oil (Saudi Arabia)

31. Figure 9-10. Saudi Export Revenues and Foreign Currency Reserves, 1960-2005, in Billions of Current Dollars Source: World Development Indicators 2007 ; and Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency, Annual Report , Monetary and Banking Statistics .

35. Two Pipelines in Greater Detail Main participants in these two pipelines: Tengiz to Novorossiysk Russian Federation 24% Repub. Of Kazakhstan 19% Sultanate of Oman 7% Chevron 15% LUKARCO 12.5% Rosneft/Shell 7.5% Mobil 7.5% Agip 2% Turkmenistan to Pakistan: Unocal, Gazprom, Hyundai, Itochu, Delta Oil (Saudi Arabia)

37. Figure 9-10. Saudi Export Revenues and Foreign Currency Reserves, 1960-2005, in Billions of Current Dollars Source: World Development Indicators 2007 ; and Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency, Annual Report , Monetary and Banking Statistics .

39. The Three Periods Period Dates Type of Governance Bretton Woods 1945-1971 Hegemonic Interdependence 1971-1989 Collective Globalization 1989-present Global

40. Evolution of Subsystems Subsystems Bretton Woods Interdependence Globalization North-North Creation of US-dominated regimes Floating replaces fixed exchange-rates; Major challenges to US hegemony EU expansion and the creation of Euro; the US reemerges as hegemonic North-South Bipolar competition NIEO, OPEC, increasing gaps w/in the South Rise of Asian NICs and the Washington Consensus

41. What Happens to Specific Regimes? Regimes Bretton Woods Interdependence Globalization Monetary Fixed but adjustable rates Dirty Float Dirty Float; greater concerns about crises Trade GATT GATT challenged (even by US) WTO; rise of the anti-globalization movement Investment Few rules other than retaliation Period of nationalizations TRIMs within the WTO; but MAI fails; rise of BITs