This document discusses and clarifies different terms used to describe uncertainty: - Probable refers to something that is likely to happen based on mathematical calculations of chance or likelihood. - Possible refers to something that could happen but may be unlikely. It is more broad than probable. - Plausible refers to something that seems reasonable or credible enough that an informed audience could believe it could become real, even if it is not very likely. It involves subjective judgments about believability.

1. Towards a Clarification of Terms
Ruud van der Helm
Alternate Perspectives, Fall 2012
Heather Schlegel

3. probable
possibility
plausibility

4. probability
possible
plausibility

5. probability
possibility
plausible

7. distinct
absolute/subjective
practical

9. probable Mathematical Concept
That may be proved likeliness
The feeling of certainty
repetitive systems chance
Transform into certainty
Sufficient certainties– B de Jouvenel Not all futures have
Has an appearance of truth probabilities, but we are
interested in them anyway.
Uncertainty through change
Individual event unknown, result is no surprise

10. possible
Extract the possible Binary
Impossibilities are continent potential
And mostly based on timeline
Challenged by absolute and subjective reasons
Can be absolute conceivable
4 Type of Possible (Bloch)
• Formal
Our Job: Open Possibilities!!
• Factual nonsense Probable ≠ possible
• Objects’
• Objective Not everything possible exists
contradictory

11. GBN 2x2 Matrix
Most Important Variables
Most uncertain Variables

12. GBN 2x2 Matrix
Equally
Most Important Variables
Possible Most uncertain Variables

13. plausible
Exists in our minds Plausible ≠ possible
Reasonable
Subjective Credible Convincing
Most Problematic Qualifier Judgments
Based on the argument, story as real
Belief that a future can be real
Does an informed audience believe?
Concepts
Can be improbable

15. probability
likely to happen

16. possibility
can it happen?

17. plausibility
convinced could happen

19. probable
possible
plausible