4. EXOPLANET TRANSIT / ESA / Illustration by AOES Medialab 2003
As early as the January 2011 100 Year Starship Workshop, the mission had
identified human survival as a key factor in its work.
The workshop recommended exploration of "ideas related to creating a legacy
for the human species, backing up the Earth’s biosphere, and enabling long-‐
term survival in the face of catastrophic disasters on Earth."
I hope to contribute a means for addressing all three of these goals in one
effort.
So let’s begin with two key questions. The first of which is:
( … Are we alone? … )
5. The Fermi Paradox and The Great Silence
Are we alone?
EXOPLANET TRANSIT / ESA / Illustration by AOES Medialab 2003
Are we alone?
… Is life -‐-‐ living matter, whether simple or
complex -‐-‐ common, or is it rare, in the observable
universe?
( … The Kepler Mission and others tell us that
there is no shortage of rocky worlds to be detected
… )
6. The Fermi Paradox and The Great Silence
Kepler and 0ther observations tell us that
there is no shortage of worlds to be
detected.
Billions of years for worlds to develop.
Radiant life or von Neumann probes would need < 1 million years.
Where are they?
This is the Fermi Paradox.
The quiet in place of any other signs of life: the Great Silence.
EXOPLANET TRANSIT / ESA / Illustration by AOES Medialab 2003
The Kepler Mission and others tell us that there is no shortage of
rocky worlds to be detected.
There’ve been billions of years for worlds to develop.
Radiant life or von Neumann probes would need as little as 1
million years to colonize the Galaxy.
Where are they?
This is the Fermi Paradox.
The quiet in place of any other signs of life has been termed the
Great Silence.
7. Exploring further...
Possible answers to the Fermi
Paradox
Responsibility to strive,
regardless of the unknown
status of other life
biota.cc/vessel.pdf
EXOPLANET TRANSIT
ESA / Illustration by AOES Medialab 2003
Exploring further in the paper we have some
Possible answers to the Fermi Paradox
... and we discuss our Responsibility to strive,
regardless of the unknown status of other life
( … Is life widespread, or as uncommon as we seem
to be? … )
8. The Fermi Paradox and The Great Silence
Is life widespread, or as uncommon
as we seem to be?
Learning the truth through interstellar travel will take time.
We must foster a supporting—and surviving—interstellar civilization.
EXOPLANET TRANSIT / ESA 2003 / Illustration by AOES Medialab
Is life widespread, or as uncommon as we seem to
be?
Learning the truth through interstellar travel will
take time.
In order to achieve our goal of interstellar travel,
we must foster a supporting and surviving
interstellar civilization.
( … This brings us to second key question … )
9. MASSIVE TERRESTRIAL STRIKE / Don Davis / NASA
This brings me to our second key question
( … Will we endure? … )
10. Existential Risk
Will we endure?
MASSIVE TERRESTRIAL STRIKE / Don Davis / NASA
This brings me to our second key question
Will we endure?
( … We have given ourselves 100 years to achieve
our primary goal, yet our endeavor could be cut
short before that time has passed. The risk that we
may not endure is termed Existential Risk. … )
11. Existential Risk
100 years to achieve our primary goal.
Our endeavor could be cut short before that
time has passed.
The risk that we may not endure is termed Existential Risk.
An existential risk is one that threatens the premature
extinction of Earth-‐originating intelligent life or the permanent
and drastic destruction of its potential for desirable future
development.
-‐ Nick Bostrom
Existential Risk Prevention as the Most Important Task for Humanity (2011)
MASSIVE TERRESTRIAL STRIKE / Don Davis / NASA
We have given ourselves 100 years to achieve our primary goal, yet our endeavor could be cut short
before that time has passed. The risk that we may not endure is termed Existential Risk.
Nick Bostrom, Director of the Future of Humanity Institute, defines -‐
An existential risk is one that threatens the premature extinction of Earth-‐originating intelligent life, or
the permanent and drastic destruction of its potential for desirable future development.
The paper quoted here is an excellent treatment, found on his site, called “Existential Risk Prevention
as the Most Important Task for Humanity.”
( … Now let’s notice that fragment -‐ “... destruction of its potential for desirable future development.”
… )
12. Existential Risk
“... the permanent and drastic destruction of its
potential for desirable future development.”
Survival alone is not enough.
In some cases, a surviving society may be brutalized, stagnant, or
diminished irreparably. Bostrom’s 2011 classification sets aside
discussion of particular causes.
Strict focus on outcomes helps us envision possible recovery scenarios.
MASSIVE TERRESTRIAL STRIKE / Don Davis / NASA
Now let’s notice that fragment -‐ “... destruction of its
potential for desirable future development.”
Survival alone is not enough. In some cases, a
surviving society may be brutalized, stagnant, or
diminished irreparably.
Bostrom’s 2011 classification sets aside discussion of
particular causes.
( … Its strict focus on outcomes helps us envision
possible recovery scenarios. … )
13. Existential Risk
Classification of Existential Risk
Human Extinction
Humanity goes extinct prematurely, i.e., before reaching technological maturity.
Permanent Stagnation
Humanity survives but never reaches technological maturity.
Subclasses: Unrecovered Collapse, Plateauing, Recurrent Collapse
Flawed Realization
Humanity reaches technological maturity but in a way that is dismally and irremediably flawed.
Subclasses: Unconsummated Realization, Ephemeral Realization
Subsequent Ruination
Humanity reaches technological maturity in a way that gives good future prospects, yet
subsequent developments cause the permanent ruination of those prospects.
-‐ Nick Bostrom
Existential Risk Prevention as the Most Important Task for Humanity (2011)
MASSIVE TERRESTRIAL STRIKE / Don Davis / NASA
Its strict focus on outcomes helps us envision possible recovery scenarios.
Bostrom’s classification is notable for not being a laundry-‐list of extinction events. It points out two key outcomes in
particular. I call these Dystopian Outcomes, as they’re unfavorable outcomes which continue indefinitely:
Permanent Stagnation -‐ Humanity survives but never reaches technological maturity or interstellar civilization.
Flawed Realization -‐ Humanity reaches technological maturity but in a way that is irredeemably flawed.
[ -‐-‐ I joke that, in the realm of Existential Risk, Dystopian outcomes are ones that only an existentialist could love. -‐-‐ ]
But What of the other two classes?
( … Human Extinction is exactly as it sounds, no different whether the cause is a sterilizing asteroid, a pandemic, or an
unforeseen technology. … )
14. Existential Risk
Classification of Existential Risk
Human Extinction
Humanity goes extinct prematurely, i.e., before reaching technological maturity.
Permanent Stagnation
Humanity survives but never reaches technological maturity.
Subclasses: Unrecovered Collapse, Plateauing, Recurrent Collapse
Flawed Realization
Humanity reaches technological maturity but in a way that is dismally and irremediably flawed.
Subclasses: Unconsummated Realization, Ephemeral Realization
Subsequent Ruination
Humanity reaches technological maturity in a way that gives good future prospects, yet
subsequent developments cause the permanent ruination of those prospects.
-‐ Nick Bostrom
Existential Risk Prevention as the Most Important Task for Humanity (2011)
MASSIVE TERRESTRIAL STRIKE / Don Davis / NASA
Human Extinction is exactly as it sounds, no
different whether the cause is a sterilizing asteroid,
a pandemic, or an unforeseen technology.
( … Subsequent Ruination is a Far-‐future catch-‐all.
Extinction at some point after we become
interstellar is the least of our worries over the next
100 years. … )
15. Existential Risk
Classification of Existential Risk
Human Extinction
Humanity goes extinct prematurely, i.e., before reaching technological maturity.
Permanent Stagnation
Humanity survives but never reaches technological maturity.
Subclasses: Unrecovered Collapse, Plateauing, Recurrent Collapse
Flawed Realization
Humanity reaches technological maturity but in a way that is dismally and irremediably flawed.
Subclasses: Unconsummated Realization, Ephemeral Realization
Subsequent Ruination
Humanity reaches technological maturity in a way that gives good future prospects, yet
subsequent developments cause the permanent ruination of those prospects.
-‐ Nick Bostrom
Existential Risk Prevention as the Most Important Task for Humanity (2011)
MASSIVE TERRESTRIAL STRIKE / Don Davis / NASA
Subsequent Ruination is a Far-‐future catch-‐all.
Extinction at some point after we become
interstellar is the least of our worries over the next
100 years.
( … That leaves us the challenges of today: the risk
of a deeply diminished legacy, to pass on to the
stars. … )
16. Existential Risk
Classification of Existential Risk
Human Extinction
Humanity goes extinct prematurely, i.e., before reaching technological maturity.
Permanent Stagnation
Humanity survives but never reaches technological maturity.
Subclasses: Unrecovered Collapse, Plateauing, Recurrent Collapse
Flawed Realization
Humanity reaches technological maturity but in a way that is dismally and irremediably flawed.
Subclasses: Unconsummated Realization, Ephemeral Realization
Subsequent Ruination
Humanity reaches technological maturity in a way that gives good future prospects, yet
subsequent developments cause the permanent ruination of those prospects.
-‐ Nick Bostrom
Existential Risk Prevention as the Most Important Task for Humanity (2011)
MASSIVE TERRESTRIAL STRIKE / Don Davis / NASA
That leaves us the challenges of today: the risk of a
deeply diminished legacy, to pass on to the stars.
Avoiding this outcome is the focus of my proposal.
( … So, Reminded of the need to foster our cultural
capabilities beyond mere survival, let’s restate the
January 2011 Workshop goal as an imperative: … )
17. Existential Risk
Imperative
To achieve an interstellar civilization while
addressing existential risk, we must do more than
survive: we must preserve our aspirations, our
capabilities, our cultural resources, and our
biodiversity.
MASSIVE TERRESTRIAL STRIKE / Don Davis / NASA
So, Reminded of the need to foster our cultural capabilities beyond
mere survival, let’s restate the January 2011 Workshop goal as an
imperative:
To achieve an interstellar civilization while addressing existential risk,
we must do more than survive: we must preserve our aspirations, our
capabilities, our cultural resources, and our biodiversity.
( … What type of archive would answer to our Dystopian Outcomes -‐-‐
Permanent Stagnation or Flawed Realization? … )
18. What type of archive would answer to
Permanent Stagnation or Flawed
Realization?
Gregory Benford suggested one example in 1992, addressing
catastrophic loss of biodiversity.
DIATOM 1 (Sarah Parker-Eaton & Louise Hibbert)
Photo via Bradbury J: Nature's Nanotechnologists: Unveiling the Secrets of Diatoms. PLoS Biol 2/10/2004: e306. (CC-BY-2.5) 2004
What type of archive would answer to our
Dystopian Outcomes -‐-‐ Permanent Stagnation or
Flawed Realization?
Gregory Benford suggested one example in 1992,
addressing catastrophic loss of biodiversity.
( … The Library of Life proposal is a thought
experiment on avoiding irreversible. … )
19. The Library of Life
DIATOM 1 (Sarah Parker-Eaton & Louise Hibbert)
Photo via Bradbury J: Nature's Nanotechnologists: Unveiling the Secrets of Diatoms. PLoS Biol 2/10/2004: e306. (CC-BY-2.5) 2004
The Library of Life proposal is a thought
experiment on avoiding irreversible loss.
( … In it, he details... )
20. The Library of Life
The Library of Life: A thought experiment
on avoiding irreversible loss of biodiversity.
A broad program of freezing species in threatened ecospheres could
preserve biodiversity for eventual use by future generations. Sampling
without studying can lower costs dramatically. […] Much more
information than species DNA will be saved, allowing future
biotechnology to derive high information content and perhaps even
resurrect then-‐extinct species.
-‐ Gregory Benford
Abstract for “Saving the Library of Life” (1992)
DIATOM 1 (Sarah Parker-Eaton & Louise Hibbert)
Photo via Bradbury J: Nature's Nanotechnologists: Unveiling the Secrets of Diatoms. PLoS Biol 2/10/2004: e306. (CC-BY-2.5) 2004
In it, he details...
A broad program of freezing species in threatened ecospheres [that] could
preserve biodiversity for eventual recovery by future generations. [Believing
even then that we had no more time for the slow luxury of taxonomy, he
recommended freezing flora and fauna in situ, their complex relationships as
predator and prey intact. “Much more information than species DNA will be
saved,” he wrote, “allowing future biotechnology to derive high information
content -‐-‐ and perhaps even resurrect then-‐extinct species.”
( … The proposal was controversial, but galvanizing. Carl
Sagan wrote in a letter to Benford … )
21. The Library of Life
Controversial, but galvanizing.
My main concern is that people will conclude that scientists have
given up on preserving living biodiversity, or that future species
extinctions are not so worrisome because we can always reconstitute
the species and genera that we render extinct. But […] these potential
obstacles can be circumvented: by stressing [...] that the very fact that
such steps are being taken is an indication of how serious the problem
is.
-‐ Carl Sagan
Letter to Benford in Deep Time (1999)
The Library of Life proposal was one of the deepest and earliest
influences on my Vessel Archives proposal. It taught: We cannot be
afraid to galvanize our efforts, when confronting existential risk.
DIATOM 1 (Sarah Parker-Eaton & Louise Hibbert)
Photo via Bradbury J: Nature's Nanotechnologists: Unveiling the Secrets of Diatoms. PLoS Biol 2/10/2004: e306. (CC-BY-2.5) 2004
The proposal was controversial, but galvanizing. Carl Sagan wrote in a letter to Benford
My main concern is that people will conclude that scientists have given up on preserving living biodiversity, or that
future species extinctions are not so worrisome because we can always reconstitute the species […] that we render
extinct. But […] these potential obstacles can be circumvented: by stressing [...] that the very fact that such steps are
being taken is an indication of how serious the problem is.
When I first encountered the The Library of Life proposal, I was stunned by a glimpse of
very-‐long-‐term thinking. It eventually contributed to my becoming a Librarian. So one
of the deepest and earliest ideas to shape the Vessel Archive proposal comes from the
Library of Life, and can stated by saying:
( … We cannot be afraid to galvanize our efforts, in confronting existential risk. … )
22. The Library of Life
What type of facility would be needed to
carry a Library of Life, or house a cultural
equivalent, over the very-‐long-‐term?
Cultural archives would require different methods, and the facility
itself could take on as many different forms as there are cultures...
DIATOM 1 (Sarah Parker-Eaton & Louise Hibbert)
Photo via Bradbury J: Nature's Nanotechnologists: Unveiling the Secrets of Diatoms. PLoS Biol 2/10/2004: e306. (CC-BY-2.5) 2004
We cannot be afraid to galvanize our efforts, in confronting
existential risk.
So, can we envision the type of facility would be needed to carry
a Library of Life, or house a cultural equivalent, over the very-‐
long-‐term?
Cultural archives would require different methods, and the
facility itself could take on as many different forms as there are
cultures.
( … Here I propose the Vessel Archive, a recombinant idea,
drawing many efforts into one. … )
38. Exploring further...
Creative Commons
Seed several instances of open specification and
resource sites to explore, detail, and document
the creation of Vessel Archives, encouraging
hybrid vigor.
biota.cc/vessel.pdf
I propose the use of Creative Commons to seed an open specification on Vessel
Archive designs. A separate, licensed branch could allow for proprietary
developments in parallel to public efforts. If you’re interested in helping either
effort, or hosting such a site at your organization, please make contact.
( … Given the time, I’d explore how we could inspire the public with the 100 Year
Starship Mission, through interactive exhibits at existing, familiar institutions:
Museums, Planetariums, Arboretums, Observatories, Universities, Libraries... … )
42. Biophilia and Biophilic Design: A Pattern Language
I’d detail architectural approaches we
could use to build Vessel Archives as
dedicated, multipurpose facilities.
EDEN PROJECT: TROPICAL BIOME / Photo via Steve Keiretsu (CC-BY-1.0) 2001
I’d detail architectural approaches we could use to
build Vessel Archives as dedicated, multipurpose
facilities.
( … I’d propose possible applications of new dense
archival methods, like the digital DNA sequencing
recently developed by Church/Gao/Kosuri. … )
43. Exploring further...
Binary DNA Data Sequencing
Recent work (Church/Gao/Kosuri 2012) is
discussed, along with possible applications.
DIATOM 1 (Sarah Parker-Eaton & Louise Hibbert)
biota.cc/vessel.pdf
Photo via Bradbury J: Nature's Nanotechnologists: Unveiling the Secrets
of Diatoms. PLoS Biol 2/10/2004: e306. (CC-BY-2.5) 2004
I’d propose possible applications of new dense
archival methods, like the digital DNA sequencing
recently developed by Church/Gao/Kosuri.
( … I’d discuss the influence of architect Paolo
Soleri’s architectural ecologies -‐-‐ or Arcologies -‐-‐
on the concept of Vessel Archives. … )
45. Exploring further...
The Biophilia Hypothesis and
Biophilic Design
Pattern Languages (Christopher
Alexander)
biota.cc/vessel.pdf
THORNCROWN CHAPEL (E. Fay Jones)
Photo via Bobak (CC-BY-SA-2.5) 2006
And the possibilities of Biophilic Design and
Pattern Languages for very-‐long-‐term habitats on
Earth and in space.
( … I’d cover the implications for Icarus
Interstellar’s Project Hyperion and Project
Persephone, both devoted to interstellar habitats.
… )
47. Exploring further...
Preservation of Cultural
Architecture and Vernacular
Pattern Languages
Case study: Traditional Japanese architectural
solutions and patterns.
Photo via Alijava (CC-BY-SA-2.5) 2010
biota.cc/vessel.pdf
BAMBOO
Photo via Alijava (CC-BY-SA-2.5) 2012
And introduce solutions preserved in vernacular
architecture, as a form of embedded cultural
archival.
( … I’d look at precursors to very-‐long-‐term
thinking, such as the 10,000 Year Clock of the Long
Now Foundation, or Bruce Sterling’s entreaty
towards Deep Archival. … )
48. Exploring further...
The Long Now Foundation
10,000 Year Clock to encourage very-‐long-‐term
thinking.
Deep Archival
Bruce Sterling on very-‐long-‐term archival.
biota.cc/vessel.pdf
CLOCK OF THE LONG NOW (Long Now Foundation)
Photo via Alijava (CC-BY-SA-2.5) 2007
I’d look at precursors to very-‐long-‐term thinking,
such as the 10,000 Year Clock of the Long Now
Foundation, or Bruce Sterling’s entreaty towards
Deep Archival.
( … And I’d pose the ultimate design challenge, of
launching an interstellar starship from a Vessel
Archive installation, with a core Vessel Archive as
its memory of Earth. … )
49. Exploring further...
Mission launch capability as
deep design goal
Core Vessel Archives as cargo on
100YSS ships
biota.cc/vessel.pdf
Photo via Alijava (CC-BY-SA-2.5) 2007
And I’d pose the ultimate design challenge, of
launching an interstellar starship from a Vessel
Archive installation, with a core Vessel Archive in
its cargo.
( … All of these things are explored in the working
paper for this session. … )
52. PALE BLUE DOT / NASA / JPL 1990
We recognize this as the Pale Blue Dot -‐-‐ our
fragile self-‐portrait, Earth as captured by Voyager
I, looking back towards home, in 1990.
( … After 20 years of searching and synthesis, the
Vessel Archive proposal, is the very best I have to
give, in answer. But I hope that, together, we can
do still better, because the Great Silence awaits our
response. … )
54. James Webb Space Telescope Mirror 37 / NASA / MSFC / David Higginbotham / Emmett Given 2010
( … We began with the Great Silence, and so we
will end, by considering the Great Filter. … )
55. The Great Filter
James Webb Space Telescope Mirror 37 / NASA / MSFC / David Higginbotham / Emmett Given 2010
( … We began with the Great Silence, and so we
will end, by considering the Great Filter. … )
56. The Great Filter
We began with the Great Silence, and end by
considering the Great Filter.
The Great Silence implies that one or more of these steps [from
organic stellar material to expansive interstellar life and colonization]
are very improbable; there is a “Great Filter” along the path between
simple dead stuff and explosive life. The vast majority of stuff that
starts along this path never makes it. [...] The fact that our universe
seems basically dead suggests that it is very hard for advanced
explosive lasting life to arise.
-‐ Robin Hanson
The Great Filter -‐ Are We Almost Past It? (1998)
James Webb Space Telescope Mirror 37 / NASA / MSFC / David Higginbotham / Emmett Given 2010
We began with the Great Silence, and so we will end, by considering the Great Filter.
The Great Filter is a kind of probability barrier.
As Robin Hanson describes, this idea follows from the Great Silence and implies that
some step or series of steps -‐-‐ from the dawn of organic material to the spread of
expansive life -‐-‐ is highly unlikely -‐-‐ If it weren’t, traces of life beyond Earth should be
commonplace.
( … If the Great Filter is an apt analogy, we do not know whether it is in our past, in our
future, or whether we are still being tested -‐-‐ strained and filtered -‐-‐ by it. It may be
that the Great Filter is a technological step, or series of them. … )
57. The Great Filter
James Webb Space Telescope Mirror 37 / NASA / MSFC / David Higginbotham / Emmett Given 2010
If the Great Filter is an apt analogy, we do not know whether it is in our past,
in our future, or whether we are still being tested -‐-‐ strained and filtered -‐-‐ by
it. It may be that the Great Filter is a technological step, or series of them.
Perhaps it is the passage from control of fire to interstellar flight. We should
hope that it lies far further back than that, in the transition to simpler life
forms.
( … For finding even simple life beyond the Earth might imply that the Great
Filter is not so far behind us. Whatever the case, we must do our best to
endure. … )