Xrisk 101: (2013) Existential Risk for Interstellar Advocates (w/Notes)

(Xrisk 101 )
Existential Risk for Interstellar Advocates
Heath Rezabek, MLIS
Icarus Interstellar / Long Now Foundation (Intern)
hrezabek@icarusinterstellar.org / heath.rezabek@gmail.com
J. N. Nielsen
john.n.nielsen@gmail.com
Starship Congress 2013
August 15-‐18, 2013. Dallas, Texas.
ORIGINS / © Lucy West 2012 / Used by Permission
Xrisk 101: Existential Risk for Interstellar Advocates
Heath Rezabek
Nick Nielsen
Starship Congress 2013
... (Xrisk 101) is divided into two parts.

(Xrisk 101 )
Xrisk Fundamentals
Vessel Project Update
Heath Rezabek
Xrisk and Far Future Civilization
Nick Nielsen
(Xrisk 101) is divided into two parts.
In the ﬁrst, I will cover the fundamentals of Xrisk, and update on the Vessel project, a framework
for preserving the cultural, scientiﬁc, and biological record.
In the second, Nick Nielsen will explore the longer term implications of overcoming Xrisk for the
future of civilization.
... Though discussed in other terms, Xrisk was a key concern and priority for the DARPA 2011
starship workshop.

Creating a legacy for the human species
Backing up the Earth’s biosphere
Enabling long-‐term survival
in the face of catastrophic disasters on Earth
-‐ DARPA 2011 starship workshop report
Though discussed in other terms, Xrisk was a key concern and priority for the DARPA 2011
starship workshop.

In its January 2011 report, that workshop prioritized “creating a legacy for the human species,
backing up the Earth’s biosphere, and enabling long-‐term survival in the face of catastrophic
disasters on Earth."
At the 100YSS 2012 Symposium, I presented a synthesis of strategies to address all three of these
goals at once, called Vessel. Before updating on the Vessel project, I want to talk ﬁrst about
Existential Risk, what it includes, and why we should prioritize ﬁnding ways to meet its
challenge.
... Existential Risk denotes, simply enough, risks to our existence.

STAR MAP / © Debra Joiner 2012 / Used by Permission
Existential Risk
Existential Risk denotes, simply enough, risks to our existence. Existential Risk encompasses
both Extinction Risk and Global Catastrophic Risk.
... Nick Bostrom, Director for the Future of Humanity Institute, deﬁnes Existential Risk this way
in a key paper we’ll cover throughout...

An existential risk is one that threatens the premature extinction
of Earth-‐originating intelligent life or the permanent and drastic
destruction of its potential for desirable future development.
-‐ Nick Bostrom, Existential Risk Prevention as Global Priority (2013) goo.gl/LhxQ1
Nick Bostrom, Director for the Future of Humanity Institute, defines Existential Risk this way in
a key paper we’ll cover throughout:
An existential risk is one that threatens the premature extinction of Earth-‐originating intelligent
life, or the permanent and drastic destruction of its potential for desirable future development.
As we can see, small personal risks are down in the lower left, while situations of widespread
suffering such as global tyranny are in the middle as Global Catastrophic Risks. Finally, the
destruction of life’s long term potential defines Existential Risk, in the upper right.
... Xrisk has become a popular shorthand for this whole spectrum of risks. We can see signs of it
emerging as a priority for various space-‐related efforts.

( Xrisk )
Xrisk has become a popular shorthand for this whole spectrum of risks. We can see signs of it
emerging as a priority for various space-‐related eﬀorts.
... One of the most popular images of Xrisk today is that of a sterilizing asteroid strike.

( Xrisk )
One of the most popular images of Xrisk today is that of a sterilizing asteroid strike. And
asteroids play a big role in some of the most visible eﬀorts in space industry today, such as the
ARKYD telescope or NASA’s asteroid initiative. Specialists sometimes see unpredicted cultural
or technological Xrisks as even more urgent.
... Starship Congress has its eye on some pretty long-‐term goals. And Earth provides our only
space and time to work towards them.

Starship Congress has its eye on some pretty long-‐term goals. And Earth provides our only space
and time to work towards them. On that basis alone, the challenge of Xrisk must be answered.
But setting aside our own goals, what are the stakes? How many lives have there been, or could
yet be if extinction is avoided? Nick Bostrom has run some interesting numbers.
... To calculate the loss associated with an existential catastrophe, we must consider how much
value would come to exist in its absence.

To calculate the loss associated with an existential catastrophe,
we must consider how much value would come to exist in its
absence.
It turns out that the ultimate potential for Earth-‐originating
intelligent life is literally astronomical.
-‐ Nick Bostrom, Existential Risk Prevention as Global Priority (2013)
To calculate the loss associated with an existential catastrophe, we must consider how much
value would come to exist in its absence.
It turns out that the ultimate potential for Earth-‐originating intelligent life is literally
astronomical.
How so?
... First we need a standard for measurement. Let’s start with the total number of humans ever
to have lived on Earth.

How many human lives have ever been?
First we need a standard for measurement. Let’s start with the total number of humans ever to
have lived on Earth.
... Wolfram Alpha lists the total world population as 107.6 billion people over time. The current
global population is 7.13 billion.

107.6 billion people
(Wolfram Alpha, 2013)
Current Global Population
7.13 billion people
Wolfram Alpha lists the total world population as 107.6 billion people over time. The current
global population is 7.13 billion.
... If we leave out the current population, we get 100 billion -‐-‐ About the number of neurons in a
single human brain.

107.6 billion people
≈ 100 billion neurons
in the human brain
If we leave out the current population, we get 100 billion -‐-‐ About the number of neurons in a
single human brain.
... 100 billion lives.

100 billion lives
100 billion lives.
... One Pale Blue Dot.

100 billion lives
≈ 1 Pale Blue Dot.
One Pale Blue Dot.
... Here’s Carl Sagan on that famous image of Earth from afar:

≈ 1 Pale Blue Dot.
PALE BLUE DOT / NASA / JPL 1990
Here’s Carl Sagan on that famous image of Earth from afar:
Consider again that dot.
... That's here. That's home. That's us.

That's here. That's home. That's us.
On it everyone you love, everyone you know, everyone you ever
heard of, every human being who ever was, lived out their lives.
~ Carl Sagan
in Pale Blue Dot: A Vision of the Human Future in Space
Consider again that dot.
PALE BLUE DOT / NASA / JPL 1990
That's here. That's home. That's us.
On it everyone you love, everyone you know, everyone you ever heard of, every human being
who ever was, lived out their lives.
100 billion lives is our basic unit of measure.
... Now; How much value would come to exist if our future potential is never cut short?

How many human lives might there yet be,
in the fullness of time?
Now; How much value would come to exist if our future potential is never cut short?
... 10^16 -‐-‐ 10 million billion -‐-‐ is one estimate of the potential number of future lives on Earth
alone,

10 million billion
10 000 000 000 000 000
1016
Not to Scale.
10^16 -‐-‐ 10 million billion -‐-‐ is one estimate of the potential number of future lives on Earth
alone, if only 1 billion lived on it sustainably for the 1 billion years it’s projected to remain
habitable.
But if we consider the possibility of the spread of life beyond Earth, or synthetic minds and lives
yet to come, Bostrom’s estimate grows vast:
... 10^52 potential lives to come. 100 million x 100 billion x 100 billion x 100 billion x 100
billion

1052
Not to Scale.
10 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000
000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000
100 million x 100 billion x 100 billion
x 100 billion x 100 billion
10^52 potential lives to come. 100 million x 100 billion x 100 billion x 100 billion x 100 billion
... This means that reducing the chances of Xrisk by a mere 1 billionth of 1 billionth of 1 percent...

Statistically, reducing the chances of Xrisk by
a mere 1 billionth of 1 billionth of 1 percent...
Not to Scale.
This means that reducing the chances of Xrisk by a mere 1 billionth of 1 billionth of 1 percent...
...
... is worth 100 billion billion lives.

...is worth 100 billion billion lives.
1020
Not to Scale.
...is worth 100 billion billion lives.
With just a slight shift in priorities, we can hugely boost the chances of life achieving its full
future potential by working to enhance its prospects today.
... Let’s look at Bostrom’s deﬁnition again:

An existential risk is one that threatens the premature
extinction of Earth-‐originating intelligent life
or the permanent and drastic destruction of its
potential for desirable future development.
Let’s look at Bostrom’s deﬁnition again:
An existential risk is one that threatens the premature extinction of Earth-‐originating intelligent
life, or the permanent and drastic destruction of its potential for desirable future development.
... Notice that fragment -‐ “... destruction of its potential for desirable future development.”

An existential risk is one that threatens the premature
extinction of Earth-‐originating intelligent life
or the permanent and drastic destruction of its
potential for desirable future development.
Survival alone is not enough.
A surviving society may be brutalized, stagnant,
or diminished irreparably, unable to aspire or to
build itself anew.
Notice that fragment -‐ “... destruction of its potential for desirable future development.”
Survival alone is not enough. In some cases, a surviving society may be brutalized, stagnant, or
diminished irreparably, unable to aspire or to build itself anew.
This brings us to two subtypes of Xrisk as crucial as extinction itself.
... They both fall into the realm of Global Catastrophic Risks.

Permanent Stagnation
Humanity survives but never reaches technological maturity.
Subclasses: Unrecovered Collapse, Plateauing, Recurrent Collapse
Flawed Realization
Humanity reaches technological maturity but in a way that is dismally
and irremediably flawed.
Subclasses: Unconsummated Realization, Ephemeral Realization
They both fall into the realm of Global Catastrophic Risks.
Permanent Stagnation -‐ Humanity survives but never reaches technological maturity or
interstellar civilization.
Flawed Realization -‐ Humanity reaches technological maturity but in a way that is irredeemably
flawed.
Pop culture has a working knowledge of them both, in different terms.
... Nick and I joke that it’s a bit like Zombies vs Vampires.

Zombies VS Vampires
Permanent Stagnation Flawed Realization
Zombie
(CC-BY) Jarrett Matthews
Vampire
(CC-BY) Jarrett Matthews
Nick and I joke that it’s a bit like Zombies vs Vampires.
Permanent Stagnation and Flawed Realization. Losing our capability as a civilization, or
enduring only in a deeply ﬂawed form. These two risks ﬁll our dystopian movies.
But because popular culture understands them, we can learn valuable lessons about our
messaging and priorities by understanding them too.
... These two types of Xrisk cut to the heart of what it means to achieve our full potential.

EDEN PROJECT: TROPICAL BIOME / Photo via Steve Keiretsu (CC-BY-1.0) 2001
These two types of Xrisk cut to the heart of what it means to achieve our full potential.
There is a vast opportunity between these risks, because of the many advances needed to achieve
an interstellar future – and because of the beneﬁts such advances could have for life on Earth -‐-‐
in areas such as habitat design, energy infrastructure, biotechnology, as well as advanced
computing, networking, and archival.
... If we work to prototype here and now, solving real-‐world problems along the way, all will
beneﬁt.

From ARCOLOGY: The City in the Image of Man © Paolo Soleri 1969 / Used by Permission
If we work to prototype here and now, solving real-‐world problems along the way, all will
beneﬁt. If we make advances open and adaptable to humanity’s best minds, we will gain allies in
our eﬀort to uplift Earth and thrive beyond it.
... Perhaps advanced, resilient technologies could carry a seal standing for the dual design goals
of uplifting

Perhaps advanced, resilient technologies could carry a seal standing for the dual design goals of
uplifting life on Earth while advancing our reach towards the stars. Like LEED certiﬁcation for an
inﬁnite future.
... What would such projects be like? Last year, I proposed the Vessel project as a means to
safeguard cultural potential on Earth and beyond.

What would such projects be like? Last year, I proposed the Vessel project as a means to
safeguard cultural potential on Earth and beyond.
I’ll close with a brief update on this approach to advanced computing, compact habitat design,
and long-‐term archival.
... Capability lost before advanced goals are reached will be very diﬃcult to recover, without a
means of setting a baseline for civilization’s capabilities.

Architect © Vincent Callebaut Architectures 2008
Visualization Used by Permission and © Philippe Steels 2008LILYPAD / Floating Ecopolis
Capability lost before advanced goals are reached will be very difficult to recover, without a
means of setting a baseline for civilization’s capabilities.
A Vessel is an installation, facility, or habitat that serves as a reservoir for Earth’s biological,
scientific, and cultural record. Into a Vessel is poured what must be remembered for humanity’s
potential to be maintained. On Earth or beyond, a Vessel habitat is designed to carry forth the
sum of all we’ve been.

In 2012, Vessel was pictured as the Lilypad seasteading habitat. But different Vessels would have
different designs based on their needs and settings. These traits remain key in each case:
... At a Vessel’s core would lie biological archives, meant to preserve key traces of Earth’s
biodiversity.

Biological Cache
(Library of Life)
Cultural Cache
Scientific CacheDIATOM 1 (Sarah Parker-Eaton & Louise Hibbert)
Photo via Bradbury J: Nature's Nanotechnologists: Unveiling the Secrets of Diatoms. PLoS Biol 2/10/2004: e306. (CC-BY-2.5) 2004
G. Benford: Saving The Library of Life (1992)
goo.gl/wjhSC
At a Vessel’s core would lie biological archives, meant to preserve key traces of Earth’s
biodiversity. Here the primary model is Gregory Benford’s groundbreaking 1992 Library of Life
proposal. He details a program for freezing and preservation of endangered biomass for possible
future recovery.
Also crucial would be core archives for cultural and scientiﬁc knowledge, both physical and
digital. I’m working with Icarus Interstellar to make sure the Vessel framework is compatible
with Icarus projects.
... Surrounding these archives would be Research Labs, where specialists can collaborate on
advanced technologies,

James Webb Space Telescope Mirror 37 / NASA / MSFC / David Higginbotham / Emmett Given 2010
Research Labs
(Inwards-Facing Facilities)
Surrounding these archives would be Research Labs, where specialists could collaborate on
advanced technologies, seeking critical paths which avoid and mitigate Xrisk. Or, in a time of
recovery, sealed labs could be the birthplace of new beginnings.
Research Labs would open inwards to draw upon the Core Cache.
... But in the near term, through an outer ring of Learning Labs, Vessel facilities could welcome
the curious

Learning Labs
(Outwards-Facing Facilities)
But in the near term, through an outer ring of Learning Labs, Vessel facilities could welcome the
curious, and give visitors an inspiring glimpse at advanced studies.
Immersive labs could be catalysts for change, helping people understand the arc of history in
nature, culture and science, the common risks ahead, and the limitless possibilities if Earth
achieves its full potential.
... Built around these three roles -‐-‐ of Learning, Research, and Archival -‐-‐ the Vessel framework is
designed to adapt to any setting or situation.

Architect © Vincent Callebaut Architectures 2008
Visualization Used by Permission and © Philippe Steels 2008LILYPAD / Floating Ecopolis
Built around these three roles -‐-‐ of Learning, Research, and Archival -‐-‐ the Vessel framework is
designed to adapt to any setting or situation.
What all Vessels would have in common is a dedication to preserving cultural capability, and a
layered, approachable presence adapted to its setting.
Many should be built, using many approaches. Some could be public, while mission critical
Vessels may be as remote as the Svalbard Seed Vault, or even secret.
... Some may be massive habitats, with others more like sculptures, compact and dense as a
room.

Dome (CC-BY-NC) Tak
Desert-Qatar (CC-0) Public Domain (CC-BY-NC-ND) M.C.Chavez
(CC-BY-SA) Decade Null
Moon (NASA/Apollo) 1969
Some may be massive as habitats, with others more like sculptures, compact and dense as a
room.
At the recent Starship Century conference in May, Freeman Dyson envisioned terrarium-‐like
habitats which could seed the vast reaches of space with life. This egg-‐like approach is hugely
inspiring to ponder from the perspective of the Vessel project.
Whether urban or remote, extreme habitats or modules on a starship, Vessel is oﬀered as a
ﬂexible framework for the long term survival of life’s capabilities.
... The Vessel project has several routes forwards.

The Vessel project has several routes forwards.
My plans for 2014 include a global survey of existing long-‐term archival projects, an open design
document to help others adapt and evolve the Vessel framework, and a Kickstarter for a Vessel-‐
related art project.
Right before Starship Congress, I began an Internship with the Long Now Foundation, working
on a project called the Manual for Civilization.
... As the ﬁrst core collection for their planned Library of the Long Now, a 10,000 year archive,
this work will overlap deeply with the Vessel project.

labs.vessel.cc
Register for updates on Vessel and the
Long Now Manual for Civilization projects at:
vessel.cc.launchrock.com
heath.rezabek@gmail.com
hrezabek@icarusinterstellar.org
@heath_rezabek
follow on twitter
As the first core collection for their planned Library of the Long Now, a 10,000 year archive, this
work will overlap deeply with the Vessel project.
So, my own timeline for Vessel is in flux. But if you’d like to collaborate, discuss ways of applying
Xrisk mitigation to your own work, or want to help accelerate these efforts, please get in touch.
You can register for updates on the Vessel project at vessel.cc.launchrock.com
[Pause]
We now turn towards the longer term, with Nick Nielsen.

(Xrisk 101 )
Session Slides & Contact Information
vessel.cc/sc2013
heath.rezabek@gmail.com
john.n.nielsen@gmail.com
g+ Xrisk - goo.gl/0QKj4
NICK’S SLIDES CONTINUE FROM HERE
Above is Final Slide for Questions and Comments after Nick’s Slides

Xrisk 101: (2013) Existential Risk for Interstellar Advocates (w/Notes)

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Xrisk 101: (2013) Existential Risk for Interstellar Advocates (w/Notes)