1. Helena Chari | TNS
@helena_chari
Συνέδριο ΕΣΒΕΠ
26.2.2014
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2. Living in a half-built house
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3. ©TNS 2014
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4. The press coverage
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5. GDP growth turns negative…for 6th consecutive year
% change vs previous year
5.5
3.5
-0.2
-3.1
-3.8
-4.9
-7.1
2006
2007
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2008
2009
2010
2011
-6.4
2012
2013e
5

6. gross disposable income
-40%
Source: ELSTAT
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7. Consumer spending
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8. No one believes
the economy is doing well
(only 2% agree)
Source: Eurobarometer
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9. unemployment
28%
Source: ELSTAT
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10. youth unemployment
61.4%
Source: ELSTAT
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11. No one believes
the employment situation is good
(only 1% agrees)
Source: Eurobarometer
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12. Levels of trust have hit the floor (except for the Internet)
‘tend to trust’ - %
Political parties
Government
Parliament
Television
17
4
34
10
49
12
28
15
The UN
The EU
39
20
21
Regional/Local public
authorities
23
The press
59
23
Radio
Internet
2008
2013
30
35
48
32
33
38
Source: Eurobarometer 69 & 80
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13. ©TNS 2014
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14. How we currently see things
46
Satisfaction with life (total 'satisfied')
37
Spring '11
26
Autumn '11
32
Autumn '12
36
38
Spring '13
Autumn '13
Personal job situation (total 'good')
19
Spring '11
36
18
Autumn '11
Autumn '12
21
22
Spring '13
Autumn '13
Financial situation of h/h (total 'good')
29
24
Spring '11
22
22
Autumn '11
Autumn '12
Spring '13
Autumn '13
Source: Eurobarometer
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15. What we expect in 12 months
Your life in general (total 'worse')
46
Spring '11
61
Autumn '11
57
Autumn '12
46
42
Spring '13
Autumn '13
Personal job situation (total 'worse')
42
30
Spring '11
Autumn '11
36
35
Autumn '12
Spring '13
30
Autumn '13
Financial situation of h/h (total 'worse')
59
Spring '11
67
Autumn '11
62
Autumn '12
57
Spring '13
52
Autumn '13
Source: Eurobarometer
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16. We also expect things to be less worse for the economy &
unemployment
Employment situation in Greece (total 'worse')
79
82
81
68
Spring '11
Autumn '11
Autumn '12
70
Spring '13
Autumn '13
Situation of Greek economy (total 'worse')
75
78
76
62
Spring '11
Autumn '11
Autumn '12
63
Spring '13
Autumn '13
Source: Eurobarometer
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17. Retail sales – year on year
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18. Retail sales – year on year
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19. Consumer confidence
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20. Consumer confidence
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21. Business confidence
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22. New orders
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23. Manufacturing PMI
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24. ©TNS 2014
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25. ©TNS 2014
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26. What has been the consumer reaction?
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27. Need to have > Nice to have
Growing trend of categories decreasing in penetration
Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel
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28. Consumers have spent less
(vs 2012)
Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel
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29. Consumers have bought less
(vs 2012)
Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel
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30. The 2013 shopping trip vs 2012:
Basket size
(volume)
Same volume
Basket value
Frequency
€
€
Paying less
Less often
Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel
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31. The evolution of shopping missions:
Smaller baskets are becoming more important
Occasions %
Spend %
13.9
6.4
13.7
6.2
13.4
27.4
25.9
25.1
37.5
37.8
37.7
25.3
25.4
25.5
33.3
34.1
34.4
13.9
14.6
15.0
MAT Nov 11
MAT Nov 12
MAT Nov 13
7.0
stock up
mainstream
top up
proximity
41.6
MAT Nov 11
42.1
MAT Nov 12
42.7
MAT Nov 13
Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel
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32. Smaller baskets …
1. are the only shopping mission maintaining frequency
2. have significant growth in packs/trip
3. are flat in spend/trip
Frequency
Packs/trip
Spend/trip
MAT
Nov 11
MAT
Nov 12
MAT
Nov 13
MAT
Nov 11
MAT
Nov 12
MAT
Nov 13
MAT
Nov 11
MAT
Nov 12
MAT
Nov 13
38.7
39.4
39.5
3.69
3.7
3.81
6.24
6.19
6.18
Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel
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33. Shift to cheaper options
Promotions
Prices
Downtrading
Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel
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34. The steady march of
private labels
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35. You will find in every 6 out of ten baskets at least one private
label product. And it’s a growing trend
64.4
63.5
61.3
MAT Nov 11
MAT Nov 12
MAT Nov 13
Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel
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36. Private Label – volume share (in units)
38.1%
Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel
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37. Private Label - value share
27.4%
Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel
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38. Private Label value share differs widely category by category
76
54
53
52
39
38
30
25
14
paper
products
edible oils
RTE
canned
food
frozen food alcoholic
beverages
dairy
products
snacks
detergents
personal
care
Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel
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39. the
Price is an issue
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40. ©TNS 2014

41. ©TNS 2014
2,500
Spend (€000)
24-Nov-13
27-Oct-13
29-Sep-13
25-Aug-13
28-Jul-13
30-Jun-13
26-May-13
28-Apr-13
31-Mar-13
24-Feb-13
27-Jan-13
30-Dec-12
25-Nov-12
28-Oct-12
30-Sep-12
26-Aug-12
29-Jul-12
01-Jul-12
27-May-12
29-Apr-12
01-Apr-12
26-Feb-12
29-Jan-12
Rolling ΜΑΤ
4,000
800
700
3,500
600
3,000
500
Volume (000 litres) - Actual
01-Jan-12
4,500
27-Nov-11
Spend (€000) - Actual
Syoss has grown share of spend by 59% and share of volume by
92%
900
400
Volume (000 litres)
Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel

42. …and the single biggest contributor to its growth in spend has
been penetration
Average price has
declined by 14%
Volume per trip
grew by 14%
Penetration
grew by 43%
Frequency grew
by 11%
Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel
©TNS 2014

43. Επαγγελματική Ποιότητα
σε Προσιτή Τιμή
Average price/volume
Shampoo total
6.63
Head&Shoulders
Ultrex
Pantene
Fructis
Timotei
Johnson’s
Syoss
Private Labels
8.70
8.22
8.16
7.94
5.78
5.58
4.61
2.87
Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel
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44. ©TNS 2014
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45. How can a brand grow?
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46. Loyalty is very hard to come by (for brands)
…even for market leaders
Loyalty in spend - %
43
57
45
55
Coca-Cola Colgate
52
48
Nescafe
52
48
Ariel
56
63
67
69
72
73
44
37
33
31
28
27
Amita
Pantene
Soupline
Fitness Papagalos Misko
Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel
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47. What makes less of a difference is
avg. weight of purchase
ie, loyalty, or how many times/how much buyers of a brand will
buy in a year
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48. What makes more of a difference is
appeal
ie, penetration, or the number of buyers a brand has
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49. So, does that mean that making shoppers more loyal to my
brand isn’t that important? Surely the most loyal shoppers are
the most important?
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50. Well…let’s take Coca-Cola as an example, the leading brand in
terms of penetration
6%
…and only 16% of
them are heavy
buyers
15.8%
of brand shoppers are
100% loyal…
Heavy
Buyers
Medium
Buyers
Light
Buyers
Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel
©TNS 2014

51. Coca-Cola buyers are also buying:
Fanta
53
Ivi
46
Private Labels
46
Lux
43
Sprite
Pepsi
Epsa
39
30
27
Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel
©TNS 2014

52. …and let’s look at another popular brand…Pantene - with lower
penetration than Coca-Cola - of 37%
9%
…and only 20% of
them are heavy
buyers
of brand shoppers are
100% loyal…
Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel
©TNS 2014

53. Pantene buyers are also buying:
Syoss
31
Head&Shoulders
24
Ultrex
21
Sunsilk
20
Fructis
20
Elvive
19
Timotei
18
Private Labels
18
Beer
16
Wash&Go
14
Johnson's
13
Herbal Essences
Gliss
13
11
Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel
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54. Even when overall brand sales/penetration levels are static –
the consumers underneath are moving
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55. ©TNS 2014
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56. Loyalty is very hard to come by (for retailers as well)
…with, on average, 5 retailers in their repertoire
Loyalty in spend - %
66
34
Masoutis
69
31
Sklavenitis
77
80
85
85
86
88
23
20
15
15
14
12
Grp CRF
AB
Galaxias
Lidl
Veropoulos My Market
Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel
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57. Retailer frequency
91
35
22
Total
Masoutis
Sklavenitis
18
15
14
14
13
Grp
Carrefour
AB
Galaxias
Lidl
Veropoulos
Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel
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58. Your consumers
are just
somebody else’s consumer
who occasionally buy you
(this applies equally to light or to heavy buyers)
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59. ©TNS 2014

60. 1. Understand the consumer
2. Understand the shopper
3. Do not slash marketing spend
4. Loyalty is out; penetration and frequency are in
5. Price ≠ Value
6. Innovate
7. The market demands a low-cost offering
8. Open innovation
9. Think technology
©TNS 2014

61. 1. Understand the consumer
2. Understand the shopper
3. Do not slash marketing spend
4. Loyalty is out; penetration and frequency are in
5. Price ≠ Value
6. Innovate
7. The market demands a low-cost offering
8. Open innovation
9. Think technology
©TNS 2014

62. 1. Understand the consumer
2. Understand the shopper
3. Do not slash marketing spend
4. Loyalty is out; penetration and frequency are in
5. Price ≠ Value
6. Innovate
7. The market demands a low-cost offering
8. Open innovation
9. Think technology
©TNS 2014

63. 1. Understand the consumer
2. Understand the shopper
3. Do not slash marketing spend
4. Loyalty is out; penetration and frequency are in
5. Price ≠ Value
6. Innovate
7. The market demands a low-cost offering
8. Open innovation
9. Think technology
©TNS 2014

64. 1. Understand the consumer
2. Understand the shopper
3. Do not slash marketing spend
4. Loyalty is out; penetration and frequency are in
5. Price ≠ Value
6. Innovate
7. The market demands a low-cost offering
8. Open innovation
9. Think technology
©TNS 2014

65. 1. Understand the consumer
2. Understand the shopper
3. Do not slash marketing spend
4. Loyalty is out; penetration and frequency are in
5. Price ≠ Value
6. Innovate
7. The market demands a low-cost offering
8. Open innovation
9. Think technology
©TNS 2014

66. 1. Understand the consumer
2. Understand the shopper
3. Do not slash marketing spend
4. Loyalty is out; penetration and frequency are in
5. Price ≠ Value
6. Innovate
7. The market demands a low-cost offering
8. Open innovation
9. Think technology
©TNS 2014

67. 1. Understand the consumer
2. Understand the shopper
3. Do not slash marketing spend
4. Loyalty is out; penetration and frequency are in
5. Price ≠ Value
6. Innovate
7. The market demands a low-cost offering
8. Open innovation
9. Think technology
©TNS 2014

68. 1. Understand the consumer
2. Understand the shopper
3. Do not slash marketing spend
4. Loyalty is out; penetration and frequency are in
5. Price ≠ Value
6. Innovate
7. The market demands a low-cost offering
8. Open innovation
9. Think technology
©TNS 2014

69. Greece…
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