Analysis of what kinds of income and education school leavers can expect

1. How Young People are Faring 2008
19 September 2008

2. Context
2008 Education Budget paper reports that 3 to 6 per cent of
o
young Australians experience a poor transition from school
HYPAF provides the most up-to-date analysis of transition
o
How many struggle in transition?
o
Who struggles to make a smooth transition?
o
New Training and Reform Agenda
o
Target of 90% school completion by 2020
o
How far to go?
o

3. Earning And Learning Among Teenagers
15 to 19 year-olds

4. Earning and learning activities of teenagers
Most teenagers are in full-time education or full-time work
Source: ABS Labour Force Australia (2008)

5. Proportion of teenagers not earning or learning
has been falling
Matched by increased participation in education & training, including school, but
not by an increase in full-time employment
Source: ABS Labour Force Australia (2008)

6. 13% of teenagers are not in full-time education
or full-time work
Females are more likely than males to be in full-time
o
education.
Among those not in full-time education, females at greater
o
risk than males of being unemployed, in part-time work or
not in the labour force.

7. Not earning or learning at age 19:
levels vary by state/territory
Source: ABS Census of Population and Housing (2006)

8. Not earning or learning at age 19 is associated
with school achievement
Source: LSAY 2003 cohort

9. Earning and learning at age 19 varies by location
Source: ABS Census of Population and Housing (2006)

10. Earning And Learning Among School Leavers

11. Earning and learning activities of school leavers
Source: ABS Labour Force Australia (2008)

12. Year 12 completion important to success in
first year out
o Not in full-time work or full-time education in year after
leaving school:
o 21% of Yr 12 completers
o 47% of early school leavers

13. Year 12 is important when entering the
labour market
Source: ABS Education and Work, Australia (2007)

14. Transition activities vary by gender
o Female school leavers more likely to enter higher education
o Males more likely to be in VET, apprenticeships, and full-
time work
o Females more likely to be in marginal activities, such as
part-time work or not being in the labour force

15. Marginal attachment to the labour force falls
as SES rises
Source: Estimates derived from LSAY 98 cohort by Stephen Lamb

16. Earning And Learning Among Young Adults
20 to 24 year-olds

17. Earning and learning activities of young adults
Full-time work
50.2%
Part-time work
9.9%
Seeking work
3.9%
Not in labour
force
7.6%
Full-time
education
28.4%
Source: ABS Labour Force Australia (2008)

18. Proportions of young adults not in full-time
education or full-time work have been falling
Falls over the past decade have corresponded with a rise in full-time
education but not in full-time work
Source: ABS Labour Force Australia (2008)

19. Those from high SES backgrounds are more
likely to be in full-time education
Source: Estimates derived from LSAY 98 cohort by Stephen Lamb

20. Young women at greater risk of marginalisation
o While levels of less than full-time engagement have been
falling for both males and females, young women continue
to be at greater risk of marginalisation than young men
(26% vs 17% in 2008)
o Young women more likely than young men to be working
part-time, or not in the labour force, while men more likely
than women to be unemployed

21. Educational Attainment

22. 2006 Census: 71% of 19 year-olds & 75% of 24
year-olds had attained Year 12 or equivalent
Source: ABS Census of Population and Housing (2006)

23. Some gains since 2001
Attainment of Year 12 or an equivalent post-school qualification (Cert III or above) (%)
19 years 24 years 20-24 years
2001 2006 2001 2006 2001 2006
% % % % % %
New South Wales 66.7 70.4 73.5 74.6 71.6 73.8
Victoria 67.7 74.4 75.6 78.3 74.2 78.2
Queensland 71.5 73.6 72.8 74.5 72.6 74.6
South Australia 62.5 66.2 69.3 71.5 67.9 70.6
Western Australia 65.1 68.6 69.8 71.3 69.0 71.2
Tasmania 56.8 62.0 59.6 67.2 59.6 67.2
Northern Territory 34.5 41.1 52.1 52.0 48.1 47.2
ACT 78.1 81.2 83.4 84.9 83.4 84.2
Australia 67.0 71.3 72.8 74.8 71.6 74.4
National figures mask state differences
Source: ABS Census of Population and Housing (2001 and 2006)

24. Still some way to go
o To achieve 90 per cent attainment by 2020 will require
nationwide improvement at double the rate measured
between the 2001 and 2006 census
o Some states and territories face greater challenges than
others
o Policy and funding must be targeted appropriately

25. Social disadvantage promotes lower rates of
attainment among some groups of young Australians
Source: ABS Census of Population and Housing (2001 and 2006)

26. Achievement, attainment and social background
related
o Achievement levels in school affect attainment
o School achievement is highly correlated with social
background
o Policies aimed at improving Year 12 completion need to
address the issue of social disadvantage

27. Australia’s attainment levels reveal room to
improve based on international standards
o International comparison of levels of upper secondary
attainment for 25-34 year-olds places Australia at about the
average for OECD countries
o Substantially lower than Korea, Sweden, US, Canada, NZ,
Finland and Hungary, among others
o Some evidence suggests that countries which offer more
extensive, well-structured VET programs do better in
promoting rates of school completion

28. Improving VET may lead to increased school
completion
Some countries doing better than Australia do VET differently
Source: Lamb (2007)

29. Transition To The Labour Market

30. Declining numbers seeking entry to the labour
force without study
Source: ABS Labour Force Australia (2008)

31. Very little full-time job growth in youth
labour market
o Fewer young people opting for the labour force rather than
full-time education
o Yet, full-time employment rates for those wanting work
have remained fairly constant
o This supports the view that full-time job opportunities for
young Australians have fallen rather than grown over much
of the last 15 years

32. Unemployment has fallen, but more part-time
than full-time job growth for young people
Labour force status of 15 to 19 year-olds not in full-time education
Source: ABS Labour Force Australia (2008)

33. Smooth pathways to full-time work more often
involve study & training
o 62% of Yr 12 completers and 58% of early leavers are in full-
time work in their 7th post-school year
o Of these:
o 88% of Yr 12 completers and 72% of early leavers
engaged in education and training at some time after
leaving school
o Only 3% of all Yr 12 completers and 6% of all early leavers
got a job immediately on leaving school and have been in
full-time work ever since
Source: Estimates derived from the Y95 cohort of LSAY by Stephen Lamb

34. Seven years on, early school leavers remain
disadvantaged
Marginally attached to the labour force seven years after
o
leaving school:
o 33% of early leavers
o 20% of Yr 12 completers
Unemployed or not in the labour force in 7th post-school
o
year and across most of seven-year period:
o 4.3% of early leavers
o 0.4% of all Year 12 completers

35. Conclusions
o 13% of teenagers and 21% of young adults are not engaged in full-
time earning or learning
o Early school leavers are at greater and ongoing risk of labour force
marginalisation
o Social disadvantage decreases likelihood of completing Year 12
o Much work needs to be done to meet new Year 12 completion
targets by 2020
o Little growth in full-time employment opportunities for young
people – more part-time work
o Smooth transitions more often involve education and training

36. Conclusions
We have the right targets but much more needs to be done
o
in order to reach them…

37. End
19 September 2008