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War Room 24 Jan 2012
Got Oil?
War Room
•Monthly macro discussion
•Using tools in context
•Update on HiddenLevers Features
•Your feedback welcome
Got Oil?
•Oil Technicals
•Oil Fundamentals
•Macro – Iran, the West + Asia
OIL – TECHNICALS
HiddenLevers
Oil Shocks + Recessions - Link
1974 – 1980 – 1990 – 2000 (even 2000!) – 2008  no coincidence
Oil – Technical Outlook
Short Term
- autumn rally from $75 to $100
- heavy resistance at 100usd mark
- oil not backing down from 100usd
- as below, so above – 125usd Oil
Long Term
- 115usd – Arab spring double top
- correction pattern since then
- solid support at 92/93usd
- break of 92 = oil likely revisits 74usd
and below
Oil – Technical Outlook
EU sanctions against Iran baked in
- 98-99usd on WTI today (24/Jan)
- 110-111usd on Brent (24/Jan)
- Fourth loss in five sessions
What does this tell you?
EU debt overshadows
the Iran soap opera!
OIL – FUNDAMENTALS
HiddenLevers
Oil Trends: WTI Oil vs Brent Oil
WTI and Brent diverged in 2011, but spread has narrowed
Oil: Top 5 Producers and Consumers
US consumption roughly equals other top 5 combined
Top 5 Oil Producers:
1. Russia - 10.3M bpd
2. Saudi Arabia - 10M bpd
3. USA - 7.5M bpd
4. Iran – 4.2M bpd
5. China – 4.1M bpd
Top 5 Oil Consumers:
1. USA – 19.1M bpd
2. China – 9.1M bpd
3. Japan – 4.5M bpd
4. India – 3.3M bpd
5. Russia – 3.2M bpd
Source: BP Stat. Review of World Energy 2011
Oil Fundamentals: Demand
 US Demand Trends
 International Demand: China + India Auto
Markets
 Latest EIA / IEA Global Demand Projections
US Oil Demand Trends
Oil Consumption down
since 2005 (pre-recession)
Vehicle-miles
down since 2007
Source: US DOT and EIA
Oil Demand: China + EM Auto
China became #1 auto market in 2009, but still has only 1
cars per 25 people (US almost 1:1)
Source: E2AF.com (Nikkei Business Publications)
Oil Demand: China + EM Auto
400M cars = 6M bpd oil = 1.5x Iran's production
 China now world's largest auto market
 25 people/car in China today
 65 people/car in India today
 ~1 person/car in US
 If China and India rise to 5 people/car, that's 400M
additional cars
Source: NYU Econ Dept, HiddenLevers
Global Oil Demand Projections
EIA projects 30M bpd demand increase by 2035
Oil Fundamentals: Supply
 US Supply Trends: US growth, Bakken Shale
 Global Supply Analysis
 Marginal Price of Production Today
US Oil Supply Growth
 US production has risen 1.6M bpd from 2008 lows
 Bakken growth accounts for 400k bpd of growth
 If US surpassed old peak over 11M bpd, would still have
to import 8M bpd
Global Supply Analysis
 HiddenLevers analyzed world production data in 2009 and 2011
 Classified countries into post-peak or still growing
2009:
14 Countries
Growing
With 40% of world
oil production
2011:
12 Countries
Growing
With 22% of
world
oil production
Source: HiddenLevers, BP Statistical Review of World Energy
Oil Supply: Marginal Production Cost
What does Oil
really cost?
Saudi Arabia:
$20/bbl
Exxon Mobil:
$71/bbl
CERA Research:
$60-90 for new
offshore, oil
sands, etc
Source: SEC 10-K Filings, Cambride Energy Research Associates
Chart depicts CERA-estimated production costs for various regions
OIL – 2012 MACRO SITUATION
HiddenLevers
Dec 2011
US Decoupling – Dream Killers
• Europe – counterparty risk
• Deflation – USD too strong for growth
• China hard landing – 50% of world econ growth
• Iran + Oil – oil shocks lead to recession
Embargo against Iran
-“EU sanctions aimed at avoiding conflict” –
British Foreign Secretary William Hague
- China + India + Russia not joining sanctions =
sanctions pitting Asia against the West
Who consumes Iran’s oil?
China 20%
Japan 17%
India 16%
South Korea 9%
Asia total 70+ %
EU 20%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
EU sanctions ineffective!
Consequences:
1. Israel armed conflict just as likely as US
2. China = ex factor – Darth Vader dilemma
3. 200usd potential (WTI)
4. Safety in CAD?
Scenarios – Iran blockade vs Armed conflict
Consequences:
1. World issue, not just the US:
1/3 of seaborne oil, 1/5 of total oil trade
2. Blockade requires a US government response
3. US war ships already in gulf – more coming
4. 125-150usd potential (WTI)
Scenario: Iran Blockade of Straits of Hormuz:
Current Projected Impact
Oil $100 $125 25%
Airline Traffic Growth 1.24% -3% -4.24%
DOD Budget Growth 2.10% 3% 1%
Tanker Rates $18700 $940 -95%
Durable Goods 12.1% 12.5% 0.4%
Scenario: Armed Conflict with Iran
Current Projected Impact
Oil $100 $190 90%
Airline Traffic Growth 1.24% -11% -12%
DOD Budget Growth 2.10% 5.38% 3.28%
Tanker Rates $18700 $940 -95%
Durable Goods 12.10% 14.7 2.6%
HiddenLevers - New Features
• Portfolio Stress Test Report v2
• New Asset Types in Screeners
• New currencies added to Scenario Modeling
• PDF visuals improved
Coming soon:
• Fixed Income Support

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Got Oil? - War Room Slides

  • 1. War Room 24 Jan 2012 Got Oil?
  • 2. War Room •Monthly macro discussion •Using tools in context •Update on HiddenLevers Features •Your feedback welcome
  • 3. Got Oil? •Oil Technicals •Oil Fundamentals •Macro – Iran, the West + Asia
  • 5. Oil Shocks + Recessions - Link 1974 – 1980 – 1990 – 2000 (even 2000!) – 2008  no coincidence
  • 6. Oil – Technical Outlook Short Term - autumn rally from $75 to $100 - heavy resistance at 100usd mark - oil not backing down from 100usd - as below, so above – 125usd Oil Long Term - 115usd – Arab spring double top - correction pattern since then - solid support at 92/93usd - break of 92 = oil likely revisits 74usd and below
  • 7. Oil – Technical Outlook EU sanctions against Iran baked in - 98-99usd on WTI today (24/Jan) - 110-111usd on Brent (24/Jan) - Fourth loss in five sessions What does this tell you? EU debt overshadows the Iran soap opera!
  • 9. Oil Trends: WTI Oil vs Brent Oil WTI and Brent diverged in 2011, but spread has narrowed
  • 10. Oil: Top 5 Producers and Consumers US consumption roughly equals other top 5 combined Top 5 Oil Producers: 1. Russia - 10.3M bpd 2. Saudi Arabia - 10M bpd 3. USA - 7.5M bpd 4. Iran – 4.2M bpd 5. China – 4.1M bpd Top 5 Oil Consumers: 1. USA – 19.1M bpd 2. China – 9.1M bpd 3. Japan – 4.5M bpd 4. India – 3.3M bpd 5. Russia – 3.2M bpd Source: BP Stat. Review of World Energy 2011
  • 11. Oil Fundamentals: Demand  US Demand Trends  International Demand: China + India Auto Markets  Latest EIA / IEA Global Demand Projections
  • 12. US Oil Demand Trends Oil Consumption down since 2005 (pre-recession) Vehicle-miles down since 2007 Source: US DOT and EIA
  • 13. Oil Demand: China + EM Auto China became #1 auto market in 2009, but still has only 1 cars per 25 people (US almost 1:1) Source: E2AF.com (Nikkei Business Publications)
  • 14. Oil Demand: China + EM Auto 400M cars = 6M bpd oil = 1.5x Iran's production  China now world's largest auto market  25 people/car in China today  65 people/car in India today  ~1 person/car in US  If China and India rise to 5 people/car, that's 400M additional cars Source: NYU Econ Dept, HiddenLevers
  • 15. Global Oil Demand Projections EIA projects 30M bpd demand increase by 2035
  • 16. Oil Fundamentals: Supply  US Supply Trends: US growth, Bakken Shale  Global Supply Analysis  Marginal Price of Production Today
  • 17. US Oil Supply Growth  US production has risen 1.6M bpd from 2008 lows  Bakken growth accounts for 400k bpd of growth  If US surpassed old peak over 11M bpd, would still have to import 8M bpd
  • 18. Global Supply Analysis  HiddenLevers analyzed world production data in 2009 and 2011  Classified countries into post-peak or still growing 2009: 14 Countries Growing With 40% of world oil production 2011: 12 Countries Growing With 22% of world oil production Source: HiddenLevers, BP Statistical Review of World Energy
  • 19. Oil Supply: Marginal Production Cost What does Oil really cost? Saudi Arabia: $20/bbl Exxon Mobil: $71/bbl CERA Research: $60-90 for new offshore, oil sands, etc Source: SEC 10-K Filings, Cambride Energy Research Associates Chart depicts CERA-estimated production costs for various regions
  • 20. OIL – 2012 MACRO SITUATION HiddenLevers
  • 21. Dec 2011 US Decoupling – Dream Killers • Europe – counterparty risk • Deflation – USD too strong for growth • China hard landing – 50% of world econ growth • Iran + Oil – oil shocks lead to recession
  • 22. Embargo against Iran -“EU sanctions aimed at avoiding conflict” – British Foreign Secretary William Hague - China + India + Russia not joining sanctions = sanctions pitting Asia against the West Who consumes Iran’s oil? China 20% Japan 17% India 16% South Korea 9% Asia total 70+ % EU 20% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics EU sanctions ineffective!
  • 23. Consequences: 1. Israel armed conflict just as likely as US 2. China = ex factor – Darth Vader dilemma 3. 200usd potential (WTI) 4. Safety in CAD? Scenarios – Iran blockade vs Armed conflict Consequences: 1. World issue, not just the US: 1/3 of seaborne oil, 1/5 of total oil trade 2. Blockade requires a US government response 3. US war ships already in gulf – more coming 4. 125-150usd potential (WTI) Scenario: Iran Blockade of Straits of Hormuz: Current Projected Impact Oil $100 $125 25% Airline Traffic Growth 1.24% -3% -4.24% DOD Budget Growth 2.10% 3% 1% Tanker Rates $18700 $940 -95% Durable Goods 12.1% 12.5% 0.4% Scenario: Armed Conflict with Iran Current Projected Impact Oil $100 $190 90% Airline Traffic Growth 1.24% -11% -12% DOD Budget Growth 2.10% 5.38% 3.28% Tanker Rates $18700 $940 -95% Durable Goods 12.10% 14.7 2.6%
  • 24. HiddenLevers - New Features • Portfolio Stress Test Report v2 • New Asset Types in Screeners • New currencies added to Scenario Modeling • PDF visuals improved Coming soon: • Fixed Income Support