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Risk Communication “Traps” ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Elements of Communications Guidance ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Well-Known Risk Communications Campaigns ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
FDA Food Labels
DHS www.Ready.gov
Failed Communications Can : ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
What People Want from Risk Communications ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Extreme Criticisms ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Milder Criticisms   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Poor Risk Communication Can Undermine effective decision making Create feelings of helplessness Erode public faith in authorities Erode authorities’ faith in public Erode social coordination produced by  sharing information sources
A Simple Communication Strategy 1.  Analytically identify the most critical  information for decisions facing audience 2.  Empirically determine current beliefs 3.  Close most critical gaps, recognizing  audience’s information-processing limits 4.  Evaluate; repeat as needed
A (Complex) Working Hypothesis ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Decision-focused SARS Reporting (a possible formulation)
Decision-focused SARS Reporting What are my chances of exposure? What are my chances of getting sick? What are my chances of being untreatable?
For Each Element, Audience Needs Useful numbers -- give order-of-magnitude feeling -- clarify verbal quantifiers (rare,  likely) -- allow rudimentary calculations Useful theory -- give numbers credibility -- allow updating numbers -- provide increasing competence
What are my chances of exposure? Useful numbers -- total cases -- total population Useful theory -- where are they concentrated? -- how long are they contagious? -- how well do we know?
What are my chances of getting sick? Useful numbers -- disease multiplier -- effectiveness of exposure routes -- effectiveness of protection strategies Useful theory -- how does transmission work? -- what’s this about [sewers, feces,  cockroaches, masks…]? -- how well do we know?
What are my chances of being untreatable? Useful numbers -- survival rates -- recurrence rates Useful theory -- why do treatments vary? -- why are healthy people dying? -- how well do we know?
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Difficult Kinds of Information (with partial solutions)
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],What’s Getting Through? (possible performance measures)
Some Suggestions Authoritative summaries of cognitive  research Worked examples (vs. principles) Standard reporting formats Professional translators (to decision-relevant  form) Consulting behavioral decision researchers Institutional analysis of failures

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Session 22 Power Point

  • 1.
  • 2.
  • 3.
  • 6.
  • 7.
  • 8.
  • 9.
  • 10. Poor Risk Communication Can Undermine effective decision making Create feelings of helplessness Erode public faith in authorities Erode authorities’ faith in public Erode social coordination produced by sharing information sources
  • 11. A Simple Communication Strategy 1. Analytically identify the most critical information for decisions facing audience 2. Empirically determine current beliefs 3. Close most critical gaps, recognizing audience’s information-processing limits 4. Evaluate; repeat as needed
  • 12.
  • 13. Decision-focused SARS Reporting (a possible formulation)
  • 14. Decision-focused SARS Reporting What are my chances of exposure? What are my chances of getting sick? What are my chances of being untreatable?
  • 15. For Each Element, Audience Needs Useful numbers -- give order-of-magnitude feeling -- clarify verbal quantifiers (rare, likely) -- allow rudimentary calculations Useful theory -- give numbers credibility -- allow updating numbers -- provide increasing competence
  • 16. What are my chances of exposure? Useful numbers -- total cases -- total population Useful theory -- where are they concentrated? -- how long are they contagious? -- how well do we know?
  • 17. What are my chances of getting sick? Useful numbers -- disease multiplier -- effectiveness of exposure routes -- effectiveness of protection strategies Useful theory -- how does transmission work? -- what’s this about [sewers, feces, cockroaches, masks…]? -- how well do we know?
  • 18. What are my chances of being untreatable? Useful numbers -- survival rates -- recurrence rates Useful theory -- why do treatments vary? -- why are healthy people dying? -- how well do we know?
  • 19.
  • 20.
  • 21. Some Suggestions Authoritative summaries of cognitive research Worked examples (vs. principles) Standard reporting formats Professional translators (to decision-relevant form) Consulting behavioral decision researchers Institutional analysis of failures