Barry Lyon of N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited made this presentation to the Condo Network Toronto. http://www.nblc.com/

1. 2010: The Bubble That Didn’t Burst.
A Review of the Greater Toronto Area Condominium Apartment Market
Presentation to the Toronto Condo Network
By: N. Barry Lyon and Jasmine Cracknell
February 18th, 2011
High-Rise Marketplace Yearly New Sales and Resales
Greater Toronto Area 2002 to 2011
50,000
45,000
New Sales
40,000
Resales
35,000
30,000
# Units
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011F
Source: RealNet Canada Inc., Toronto Real Estate Board, Market Watch and NBLC
New High-Rise Market
Annual Sales and 2009 Forecasts
Greater Toronto Area: 2002 to 2011
25,000
22,417
20,349
20,000
17,437 17,098 16,500
Total Sales - Units
15,346 14,891 15,627
15,000 13,480
11,693
10,000
5,000
0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011F
Source: RealNet Canada Inc. and NBLC
N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited
3 Church Street, Suite 100 Toronto ON M5E 1M2
(416) 364-4414
www.nblc.com

2. New High-Rise Market
Unsold Inventory and High-Rise Site Count
Greater Toronto Area 2005 to 2010
25,000 400
High Rise Inventory
350
High Rise Site Count
20,000
Unsold Inventory (# of Units)
300
High-Rise Site Count
250
15,000
200
10,000
150
100
5,000
50
0 0
Source: RealNet Canada Inc. and NBLC
Source: RealNet Canada Inc. and NBLC
N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited
3 Church Street, Suite 100 Toronto ON M5E 1M2
(416) 364-4414
www.nblc.com

3. High-Rise Market New Sale and Resale
Monthly Sales and Average Pricing
Greater Toronto Area: 2005 to 2010
$500,000 4,000
New
$450,000 Resale
3,500
New Sale
$400,000 Resale
3,000
$350,000
Total Sales (# Units)
Average Sale Price
2,500
$300,000
$250,000 2,000
$200,000
1,500
$150,000
1,000
$100,000
500
$50,000
$0 0
Jan-05
Mar-05
May-05
Sep-05
Nov-05
Jan-06
Mar-06
May-06
Sep-06
Nov-06
Jan-07
Mar-07
May-07
Sep-07
Nov-07
Jan-08
Mar-08
May-08
Sep-08
Nov-08
Jan-09
Mar-09
May-09
Sep-09
Nov-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jul-05
Jul-06
Jul-07
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-10
Source: Toronto Real Estate Board, Market Watch, RealNet Canada Inc. and NBLC
Income Required to Purchase a New or Resale Condo
Greater Toronto Area: 2004-2012
Source: Canadian Mortgage Housing Corporation, Royal Bank of Canada, Toronto Real Estate Board, RealNet Canada Inc. and NBLC
N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited
3 Church Street, Suite 100 Toronto ON M5E 1M2
(416) 364-4414
www.nblc.com

4. Source: RealNet Canada Inc. and NBLC
Source: RealNet Canada Inc. and NBLC
N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited
3 Church Street, Suite 100 Toronto ON M5E 1M2
(416) 364-4414
www.nblc.com

5. Source: RealNet Canada Inc. and NBLC
Source: RealNet Canada Inc. and NBLC
N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited
3 Church Street, Suite 100 Toronto ON M5E 1M2
(416) 364-4414
www.nblc.com

6. Downtown East Market vs. Downtown West Market
Source: NBLC and DMTI Spatial CanMaps
Source: NBLC and DMTI Spatial CanMap
N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited
3 Church Street, Suite 100 Toronto ON M5E 1M2
(416) 364-4414
www.nblc.com

7. East Toronto vs West Toronto New High-Rise
Average Building Heights
60
52
50
44
40 38
Storeys
30
30 26
24 23
22
20
13 13
11 11
10
0
Source: RealNet Canada Inc. and NBLC
Source: RealNet Canada Inc. and NBLC
N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited
3 Church Street, Suite 100 Toronto ON M5E 1M2
(416) 364-4414
www.nblc.com

8. The High-Rise Marketplace: What’s Ahead?
Daniels Corporation 4-Storey Wood-frame: (Winston Churchill Boulevard and Eglinton Avenue)
N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited
3 Church Street, Suite 100 Toronto ON M5E 1M2
(416) 364-4414
www.nblc.com

9. A New Regent Park – Including Aquatic Centre
N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited
3 Church Street, Suite 100 Toronto ON M5E 1M2
(416) 364-4414
www.nblc.com

10. Pan Am Athlete’s Village – 2,100 units, West Don Lands, Spring 2015
Toronto Transit City – Do or Die?
N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited
3 Church Street, Suite 100 Toronto ON M5E 1M2
(416) 364-4414
www.nblc.com

11. A New Union Station to Double Current Capacity
Now
Coming
N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited
3 Church Street, Suite 100 Toronto ON M5E 1M2
(416) 364-4414
www.nblc.com

12. Sugar Beach, East Bayfront
Sherbourne Common
N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited
3 Church Street, Suite 100 Toronto ON M5E 1M2
(416) 364-4414
www.nblc.com