Management of change may draw great lessons from the management of inflation.

1. Ali Anani

2. One route from A to B
A B

3. A 2nd route from A to B
B
A

4. A 2nd route from A to B
B
A Tarzan jump
is invariably
unlikely

5. A 2nd route from A to B
B
A
C A will go downhill to
C before eventually
moving up to B

6. A 2nd route from A to B
B
A
The journey
from A to C
and then C to
B is full with
emotional C A will go downhill to
changes C before eventually
moving up to B

7. The Emotional Journey of Change
Emotions
Emotions
Shock
Denial
Excitement
Anger
Hope
Guilt
Acceptance
Understanding
Depression

8. The Emotional Journey of Change
Emotions
Emotions
Shock
Denial
Excitement
Anger
Hope
Guilt
Acceptance
Depression Understanding
Inspect the trough of the
curve. What do you
notice?

9. You notice that a very
strong negative emotion
(depression) is adjacent
to a mild positive
emotion (understanding
on a trough

10. This proximity leads to high
unpredictability for any change in
one emotion will affect the other
in a highly complex way. This leads
to chaos.
Depression Understanding

11. Change is
linked to
expectations

12. This inspires
the borrowing
an idea from
long-run
Phillips Curve

13. http://tutor2u.net/economics/presentations/a2economics/macro/PhillipsC
urveNAIRU/default.html

14. Without getting into details, when opposites are
adjacent to each other a stabilizing line will
encounter chaos
Positive
Negative
Sensitive to minor
changes
Stabilizing Line

15. The fixed line is extensible to
many systems that are affected
by expectation. This line is
NOT limited to the Phillips
Curve only

16. Changes are linked to expectations. This is same as
expectations of inflation
Inflation
Unemployment
Positive
Negative
Stabilizing Positive feedback
loop
Negative Line
feedback loop
Highest
Lowest
Negative -ve Positive
+ve
expectation expectation
Negative Positive
attitude to attitude to
Change Change

17. Expectation Curve
The theory is pretty simple:
the higher your
expectations of a thing, the
deeper your
dissatisfaction/disillusionm
ent when experiencing the
thing itself
http://doug-johnson.squarespace.com/blue-
skunk-blog/2008/4/26/disillusionment-
curve.html

18. I accepted under pressure a part-time job as a
lecturer in a A story to illustrate this point
private university
further
¨ I gave the first open book exam. I still remember
how students reacted in disbelief of the new reality
that they could harmlessly open a book during an
exam
¨ All students, except for two, finished the two-hour
exam in one hour
¨ The two remaining students complained that time
was not enough

19. The students reported to other teaching staff how
they had two hours to solve such an easy exam and
were allowed to open books on top of that
¨ The staff accused me of giving an easy exam so
that students would enroll in my class
¨ I corrected the exam and the class average was 16
out of 30
¨ The staff who complained about me alluring the
students to enroll in my classes had a different view
(guess it)

20. This time they warned me of the forthcoming trouble
that students had high expectation and that they
pay high fees and therefore would revolt against
me
¨ I challenged them if one student would complain.
The trick was to manage the students’ expectations
¨ As I went in the class I asked each student to
estimate his mark. The class average was 23 out 30

21. I went on to tell the students that I was going
to solve the exam first
¨ The realization of the students that the
exam was within their domain and that they
did not give enough serious thinking to the
exam grew as I went on solving it
¨ Having finished solving the exam, I asked to
students to reevaluate their possible grades
¨ The average dropped to 12 out of 30

22. I distributed the exam papers and not a single
complaint was made
¨ The students expected an average of 12 and
they got 16. That exceeded their expectations.
Had I distributed the papers when their
average expectation was 23 I would have run
into trouble

23. The dissatisfaction/disillusionment curve explains my story
very well

24. http://www.siia.net/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=1003:vision-from-
the-top-2012-david-lloyd-intelliresponse&catid=161:software-articles&Itemid=1073
End of exam
Declining expectations post exam
Waked up to the tricks of exams
Improved
Chaos results in
Exam subsequent
trigger exams
My students example falls into this shape
Low expectation, that raised the bar to the top of
the curve

25. Greed escalates. Taming the expectations of
students tamed also their greed for even higher
grades in future exams.
Tomorrow’s
Today’s expectations
expectation Stabilizing Line
s Of expectations
Sensitive to
minor
changes

26. Tomorrow’s expectations are
based on today's results
Lower the results of today so that
you may tame the results of
tomorrow

27. We need to add the stability line
This way we may manage
change leaning upon the
experiences we gained from
trying to manage/mismanage
inflation