Far Beyond Smartphones: Lessons From Disruptive Technology, Open collaboration, and Breakthrough Mobile products David Wood has spent more than 20 years envisioning, architecting, implementing, supporting, and avidly using smart mobile devices (devices that can also be called "personal electronic brains"): ten years with PDA manufacturer Psion PLC, and then ten more with smartphone operating system specialist Symbian Ltd. He was centrally involved in preparations and planning for the open source Symbian Foundation. Over that time, many lessons have emerged, highly relevant to the H+ mission to explore how humanity will be radically changed by technology in the near future: What factors cause both spurts and slowdowns in technology development? What enables new technology visions to "cross the chasm" towards mainstream adoption? Given the history of improvements in smart mobile devices over the last 20 years, what can we realistically expect in the next 20 years? How credible is the vision of mobile devices helping billions of people to collect data that can be used for science and advance human knowledge? To what extent can technological progress be foreseen, and to what extent is the process chaotic, risky, and even dangerous? David Wood spent ten years with PDA manufacturer Psion PLC, and then ten more with smartphone operating system specialist Symbian Ltd, where he was co-founder and executive vice president. His background includes: many years building and integrating UI system software and application frameworks in 16-bit and 32-bit versions of “EPOC” software (later named “Symbian OS”); growing and directing the technical consulting teams that worked with leading phone manufacturers to create the world’s first successful smartphones; and defining and running development programs to stimulate and nurture the fast-growing Symbian partner ecosystem. From the first half of 2008, he was involved in preparations and planning for the independent open source Symbian Foundation. He served on the Leadership Team of the Symbian Foundation as “Catalyst and Futurist” until October 2009. I continue these same roles from within Delta Wisdom. He has an MA in Mathematics from Cambridge University and an honorary doctorate in science from the University of Westminster. In September 2009 he was included in T3's list of "100 most influential people in technology": http://tech100.t3.com/list/80-61/.

1. Far Beyond Smartphones:Lessons From Disruptive Technology, Open collaboration, andBreakthrough mobile products David Wood Principal, Delta Wisdom H+UK meetings secretary Blog: http://dw2blog.com Twitter: @dw2 intelligence for profound change

2. Q: How quickly can technology progress? A: If we’re not careful,not quickly enough We need to be aware ofdeep impediments to technological progress, as well as its deep drivers In principle,we can solve these impediments...

3. If we’re not quick enough Economic disintegration Environmental disaster Radically uncertain future Cut backs Disruption Extreme terrorism (WMD) Individual alienation

4. Convergence of computing & telecommsVision: 1998

5. New functionality in smartphones Colour screens Cameras – and video recorders Messaging: SMS, simple email, rich email Web browsing: Google, Wikipedia, News... Social networking: Facebook, Twitter, blogs... Games – including multiplayer games Maps and location-based services Buying and selling (tickets, vouchers, cash) What about the next 3, 5, 10 years?

6. Progress accelerators Progress inhibitors ? Decreasing price Unexpectedly hardtechnical problems Increasing reliability “Chicken-and-egg” coordination problems Increasing stylishness Increasing word of mouth recommendations Conflicting business models Increasing number of useful and/or entertaining mobile services Platform fragmentation Poor usability design Increasing ecosystem maturity (virtuous cycle) Accelerating complexity

7. Productive environment Progress (Log) ? ? Core technology (potential) Weak environment Useful applications Time

8. Ecosystem design Technology Platform Business models System integration Expertise needed ! Motivation Execution Lean processes Community engagement Agile project management User experience

9. Turning expertise into action Knowing Doing Gap! Leaders with a profound hands-on knowledge of the work domain Bias for plain language & simple concepts Encourage solutions rather than inaction: Ask “how”, not just “why” Ensure actions are completed(rather than being forgotten,or excuses being accepted) Willing to “learn by doing”:avoid analysis paralysis

10. Next generation handheld devices The mobile devices of the near future will be much more powerfulandmuch more useful than even the best mobile devices of today devices that makeall users smarter: IQ+=20 +5 years x10 raw capability ? connectivity++ awareness++ interactivity++ intelligence++ devices that make society smarter: GDP+=20% media, health, education, science, government...

11. Next generation handheld devices The mobile devices of the near future will be much more powerfulandmuch more useful than even the best mobile devices of today Augmented reality Individually targeted content Discover local treasure ? e-learning materials Huge variety of different apps (“long tail”) Cognitive enhancement Trusted advice, based on observing the user Apps much more numerous than songs Devices much more numerous than people (50B - 1T...) media, health, education, science, government...

12. Far Beyond Smartphones:Lessons From Disruptive Technology, Open collaboration, andBreakthrough mobile products David Wood, Delta Wisdom Twitter: @dw2 Blog: http://dw2blog.com Book: http://dw2blog.com/the-hplus-agenda/ Chapter 3:http://dw2blog.com/the-hplus-agenda/my-personal-journey/ Some further reading