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Hyre Weekly Commentary
                                               July 9, 2012


Where is the recovery in jobs?

In the 10 recessions between World War II and 2001, the jobs lost during the recession were
fully recovered within 4 years of the previous peak in employment, according to the blog,
Calculated Risk. In fact, with the exception of the 2001 recession, the previous 9 recessions had
recovered all their lost jobs within a relatively short 2½ years.

The 2007 recession, however, is a different story.

At its nadir in February 2010, the U.S. economy had shed nearly 9 million jobs from its prior
peak, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). As of last week’s June employment
report, the U.S. economy had recovered less than half of those lost jobs – and we’re more than 4
years removed from the peak employment level of late 2007, according to the BLS.

Why has the jobs recovery from this recession been so painfully slow? Here are several reasons:

   (1) Recoveries from recessions caused by financial crises – like this one – are notoriously
       slow.
   (2) Extremely high economic policy uncertainty emanating from Washington made
       corporations cautious in hiring.
   (3) The extension of unemployment benefits to 99 weeks reduced some people’s desire to
       find new work.
   (4) Uncertainty from events related to the euro crisis dampened business demand and the
       need for more workers.
Sources: Gary Becker, Nobel Prize Winner and Richard Posner blog; The Wall Street Journal

There is some good news, though, that could eventually provide a spark for new hiring.

Corporate profits as a percentage of gross domestic product (the value of all goods and services
produced in the U.S.) recently hit an all-time high, according to Business Insider. This means
corporate profits are at record levels. On top of that, corporate cash levels have reached historic
highs which suggest corporations have plenty of money to reinvest for growth, according to
Yahoo! Finance. With corporate profits and balance sheets looking solid, all we have to do is get
these companies to start spending some of that cash on new hires. If that happens on a large
scale, it could be a huge boost to the economy and the financial markets.

                                           1-                 1-       3-       5-      10-
  Data as of 7/6/12                        Week      Y-T-D Year Year Year               Year
  Standard & Poor's 500 (Domestic          -0.6%     7.7%     0.8% 14.7% -2.4% 3.3%
  Stocks)
  DJ Global ex US (Foreign Stocks)         -0.1      1.0      -17.8 5.4         -7.4    4.6
  10-year Treasury Note (Yield Only) 1.5             N/A      3.1      3.5      5.2     4.8
  Gold (per ounce)                         -0.7      0.8      3.9      19.7     19.6    17.7
  DJ-UBS Commodity Index                   1.1       -2.7     -13.8 5.0         -4.4    3.4
  DJ Equity All REIT TR Index              1.2       16.3     10.2     33.2     2.0     10.9
Notes: S&P 500, DJ Global ex US, Gold, DJ-UBS Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested
dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are
annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT TR Index does include reinvested dividends and the three-,
five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at
the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance, Barron’s, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be
invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.

INVESTORS HAVE GROWN VERY FICKLE in recent years as measured by how long they
hold on to a stock. There was a time when investors were really investors and bought a stock for
the long run. In fact, between 1940 and 1975, the average length of time a New York Stock
Exchange stock was held before it was sold was almost 7 years, according to data from the New
York Stock Exchange as reported by a September 2010 Top Foreign Stocks blog post. By 1987,
it had dropped to less than 2 years. And, in the highly volatile year of 2008, the average holding
period was less than 9 months, according to The New York Stock Exchange.

So, does this fast trading result in better returns?

A highly quoted study by Brad Barber and Terrance Odean of University of California-Davis
published in April 2000 analyzed the results of nearly 2 million trades from a discount brokerage
firm between 1991 and 1996. The study concluded that the 20 percent of investors who traded
the most frequently underperformed the 20 percent of investors who traded the least frequently
by a whopping 7.1 percentage points on an annualized basis after expenses.

The main conclusion of the study was, “Trading is hazardous to your wealth.”

One very interesting tidbit from the study was the gross returns between the frequent and
infrequent traders were basically the same. In other words, stock selection was not a problem for
the fast traders; rather, it was the expenses of the frequent trading that caused their net returns to
lag far behind the infrequent traders.
From a practical standpoint, selling a stock is necessary from time to time. The study simply
drives home the point that keeping trading costs as low as possible is critical to having net
returns come close to gross returns.

Weekly Focus – Think About It…

“Learn every day, but especially from the experiences of others. It's cheaper!”
--John Bogle, founder of The Vanguard Group

Best regards,




Jim Hyre, CFP®
Registered Principal

P.S. Please feel free to forward this commentary to family, friends, or colleagues. If you would
like us to add them to the list, please reply to this e-mail with their e-mail address and we will
ask for their permission to be added.

Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC.

* The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in
general.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks.
* The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the
National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System.
* Gold represents the London afternoon gold price fix as reported by www.usagold.com.
* The DJ/AIG Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The
Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen
as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* The DJ Equity All REIT TR Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment
Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future
performance.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
* You cannot invest directly in an index.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. mc101507
* Some newsletter content was prepared by PEAK for use by James Hyre, CFP®, Registered Principal
* If you would prefer not to receive this Weekly Newsletter, please contact our office via e-mail or mail your request to 2074 Arlington
Ave, Upper Arlington, OH 43221.
* The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments
referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that
the forgoing material is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of Jim Hyre and not necessary those of RJFS or Raymond
James. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. This information is not intended as a
solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security to herein. Tax or legal matters should be discussed with the appropriate
professional.




Jim Hyre, CFP®
Registered Principal
Raymond James Financial Services, Inc.
Member FINRA/SIPC
2074 Arlington Ave.
Upper Arlington, OH 43221
614.225.9400
614.225.9400 Fax
877.228.9515 Toll Free

www.hyreandassociates.com


Find Us Here:




Raymond James Financial Services does not accept orders and/or instructions regarding your account by email, voice mail, fax or
any alternate method. Transactional details do not supersede normal trade confirmations or statements. Email sent through the
Internet is not secure or confidential. Raymond James Financial Services reserves the right to monitor all email. Any information
provided in this email has been prepared from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by Raymond James Financial
Services and is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision. Any
information provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation. Raymond James Financial
Services and its employees may own options, rights or warrants to purchase any of the securities mentioned in email. This email is
intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and may contain confidential and/or privileged material. Any review,
transmission, dissemination or other use of, or taking of any action in reliance upon, this information by persons or entities other
than the intended recipient is prohibited. If you received this message in error, please contact the sender immediately and delete
the material from your computer.



                                 2074 Arlington Avenue, Columbus, Ohio 43221
                        614.225.9400 local | 877.228.9515 toll-free | 614.225.9400 fax
                         www.hyreandassociates.com | info@hyreandassociates.com

                     Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. Member FINRA/SIPC.

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Hyre Weekly Commentary

  • 1. Hyre Weekly Commentary July 9, 2012 Where is the recovery in jobs? In the 10 recessions between World War II and 2001, the jobs lost during the recession were fully recovered within 4 years of the previous peak in employment, according to the blog, Calculated Risk. In fact, with the exception of the 2001 recession, the previous 9 recessions had recovered all their lost jobs within a relatively short 2½ years. The 2007 recession, however, is a different story. At its nadir in February 2010, the U.S. economy had shed nearly 9 million jobs from its prior peak, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). As of last week’s June employment report, the U.S. economy had recovered less than half of those lost jobs – and we’re more than 4 years removed from the peak employment level of late 2007, according to the BLS. Why has the jobs recovery from this recession been so painfully slow? Here are several reasons: (1) Recoveries from recessions caused by financial crises – like this one – are notoriously slow. (2) Extremely high economic policy uncertainty emanating from Washington made corporations cautious in hiring. (3) The extension of unemployment benefits to 99 weeks reduced some people’s desire to find new work. (4) Uncertainty from events related to the euro crisis dampened business demand and the need for more workers. Sources: Gary Becker, Nobel Prize Winner and Richard Posner blog; The Wall Street Journal There is some good news, though, that could eventually provide a spark for new hiring. Corporate profits as a percentage of gross domestic product (the value of all goods and services produced in the U.S.) recently hit an all-time high, according to Business Insider. This means corporate profits are at record levels. On top of that, corporate cash levels have reached historic highs which suggest corporations have plenty of money to reinvest for growth, according to Yahoo! Finance. With corporate profits and balance sheets looking solid, all we have to do is get
  • 2. these companies to start spending some of that cash on new hires. If that happens on a large scale, it could be a huge boost to the economy and the financial markets. 1- 1- 3- 5- 10- Data as of 7/6/12 Week Y-T-D Year Year Year Year Standard & Poor's 500 (Domestic -0.6% 7.7% 0.8% 14.7% -2.4% 3.3% Stocks) DJ Global ex US (Foreign Stocks) -0.1 1.0 -17.8 5.4 -7.4 4.6 10-year Treasury Note (Yield Only) 1.5 N/A 3.1 3.5 5.2 4.8 Gold (per ounce) -0.7 0.8 3.9 19.7 19.6 17.7 DJ-UBS Commodity Index 1.1 -2.7 -13.8 5.0 -4.4 3.4 DJ Equity All REIT TR Index 1.2 16.3 10.2 33.2 2.0 10.9 Notes: S&P 500, DJ Global ex US, Gold, DJ-UBS Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT TR Index does include reinvested dividends and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods. Sources: Yahoo! Finance, Barron’s, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable. INVESTORS HAVE GROWN VERY FICKLE in recent years as measured by how long they hold on to a stock. There was a time when investors were really investors and bought a stock for the long run. In fact, between 1940 and 1975, the average length of time a New York Stock Exchange stock was held before it was sold was almost 7 years, according to data from the New York Stock Exchange as reported by a September 2010 Top Foreign Stocks blog post. By 1987, it had dropped to less than 2 years. And, in the highly volatile year of 2008, the average holding period was less than 9 months, according to The New York Stock Exchange. So, does this fast trading result in better returns? A highly quoted study by Brad Barber and Terrance Odean of University of California-Davis published in April 2000 analyzed the results of nearly 2 million trades from a discount brokerage firm between 1991 and 1996. The study concluded that the 20 percent of investors who traded the most frequently underperformed the 20 percent of investors who traded the least frequently by a whopping 7.1 percentage points on an annualized basis after expenses. The main conclusion of the study was, “Trading is hazardous to your wealth.” One very interesting tidbit from the study was the gross returns between the frequent and infrequent traders were basically the same. In other words, stock selection was not a problem for the fast traders; rather, it was the expenses of the frequent trading that caused their net returns to lag far behind the infrequent traders.
  • 3. From a practical standpoint, selling a stock is necessary from time to time. The study simply drives home the point that keeping trading costs as low as possible is critical to having net returns come close to gross returns. Weekly Focus – Think About It… “Learn every day, but especially from the experiences of others. It's cheaper!” --John Bogle, founder of The Vanguard Group Best regards, Jim Hyre, CFP® Registered Principal P.S. Please feel free to forward this commentary to family, friends, or colleagues. If you would like us to add them to the list, please reply to this e-mail with their e-mail address and we will ask for their permission to be added. Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC. * The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. * The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. * The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. * Gold represents the London afternoon gold price fix as reported by www.usagold.com. * The DJ/AIG Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998. * The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market. * The DJ Equity All REIT TR Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones * Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods. * Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance. * Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision. * You cannot invest directly in an index. * Past performance does not guarantee future results. mc101507 * Some newsletter content was prepared by PEAK for use by James Hyre, CFP®, Registered Principal * If you would prefer not to receive this Weekly Newsletter, please contact our office via e-mail or mail your request to 2074 Arlington Ave, Upper Arlington, OH 43221. * The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the forgoing material is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of Jim Hyre and not necessary those of RJFS or Raymond James. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. This information is not intended as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security to herein. Tax or legal matters should be discussed with the appropriate professional. Jim Hyre, CFP® Registered Principal Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. Member FINRA/SIPC
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