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Drillers and Dealers - April 2010
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2. ‘Drillers and Dealers’
Published by:
The Oil Council
“Engaging Upstream Oil & Gas Communities World-wide”
Foreword
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Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer,
The Oil Council The Oil Council
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3. „Drillers and Dealers‟ – April 2010 Edition
About The Oil Council and „Drillers and Dealers‟
o Contact Details
Executive Q&A
o An interview with Attila Holoda, Managing Director, Eurasian E&P, MOL Plc.
Exploration and Production
Giving Birth to Shareholder Value
o By Alistair Stobie, Chief Financial Officer, Pan-Petroleum
Our Partners
2010 Global Oil & Gas Survey Results
„On the Spot‟ with our Question of the Month
o “What defining qualities and characteristics do oil and gas executives (CEOs,
CFOs and COOs) need to possess to lead their company to new growth in
today's marketplace?"
The Oil Council‟s Assemblies in New York City and London
Crude Enterprise in Iraq
o By Elaine Reynolds, Oil Analyst, Edison Investment Research
“Diary of a Commodity Trader” (Column) – Ahead of the Curve: Getting in
Front of the Coming Energy Crisis!
o By Kevin Kerr, President and CEO, Kerr Trading International
“The Oil Outlook” (Column) – Crude's Irrational Exuberance
o By Gianna Bern, President, Brookshire Advisory and Research
“Golden Barrels” (Column) – Lifestyle Companies
o By Simon Hawkins, Managing Director, Omni Investment Research
www.oilcouncil.com
4.
5. Executive Q&A
With Attila Holoda,
Managing Director,
Eurasian E&P, MOL Plc.
Exploration and Production
Talking with
Ross Stewart Campbell, CEO, The Oil Council
th
Date: 11 April 2010
Ross Stewart Campbell (RSC) from which have a production history of more than 30
The Oil Council: Attila thanks for years and are now in a ‟mature age‟.
joining us. There are a number of
topics that I wanted to discuss with As these fields still hide significant potential reserves
you today but if I may I’d like to start that can to be produced, the industry gives plenty of
with exploration. As we move into a room for the implementation of new techniques and
world where all the ‘easy oil’ has technologies, in order to intensify the fields and to
been found, E&P companies are facing a raft of new improve the efficiency of production from them
challenges when looking to find and extract oil and (Brownfield developments).
gas in increasingly far flung locations and complex
environments. MOL‟s upstream portfolio (including INA‟s US
portfolio which has been fully controlled by MOL
In your opinion what are the biggest exploration since mid-2009) has a solid basis for future growth,
challenges facing oil and gas companies and how with sizeable production in seven countries, and
are MOL planning on overcoming these? further exploration potential in 15 countries. All these
operations leverage off our 70+ year-old E&P
Attila Holoda (AH) from MOL: experiences gained in the Central-European region.
Ross, the oil industry in the first
decade of the 21st century faces a As one of the largest operators in the region we have
range of new challenges in the introduced and successfully implemented a wide
replacement of hydrocarbon range of enhanced and improved techniques for
reserves. In competing for maturing oil fields in the last 40 years.
exploration areas, companies have
witnessed that the sizes of conventional field For the MOL Group, our main task in the coming few
discoveries tend to be smaller and smaller, while years is to maximise the value of our existing
they are forced to execute work programs and to upstream portfolio. Our key focuses are;
perform operations in harder and tougher
environments. To progress high-return, early-cash generation
development projects in CEE, Syria, Pakistan,
Kurdistan and Russia;
“For the MOL Group, our To increase our production levels;
main task in the coming To contribute significantly to Group-level
EBITDA; and
few years is to maximise All while extending MOL‟s outstanding efficiency
the value of our existing to our whole upstream portfolio.
upstream portfolio.” To help do this we‟ll carry out extensive conventional
and unconventional exploration to further increase
our reserve base.
Two good examples of this phenomenon are the
activities carried out in deep or ultra-deep off-shore RSC: We’ve recently witnessed a record amount of
and arctic conditions. But apart from the climatic and M&A and A&D activity in the oil and gas sector as
geographical hardships, safety risks are also now companies ‘fight’ to acquire new assets needed to
increasingly high on the agenda to a certain degree. fulfil their growth potential.
Despite intense conventional and unconventional With this activity burns the age old question of
exploratory activities these days, currently 65% of whether companies should focus on organic or
the global crude oil production still comes from fields inorganic growth to build their reserves base.
www.oilcouncil.com
6. Is exploration still the ultimate key to growth, or, has the past 75 years in E&P activities, or, by applying
M&A overtaken it as the leading factor in building creative financing and structuring alternatives.
one’s reserves?
Let me draw you (and your readers) a few examples
AH: In my opinion Ross exploration provides a Ross on our most recent exploration activities:
hugely important organic method of value generation
for all industry players. But today‟s best and quickest 1. In Hungary, we implemented a new concept in
opportunities for growth may come from the M&A our exploration activities in 2006, which resulted
marketplace. in an above 70% exploration success ratio
[since the initiation of this concept], proving that
Companies who aligned themselves to ride out the a mature area can also be important part of an
cyclicality of the oil and gas industry are much better exploration strategy
positioned to significantly benefit from arising M&A
opportunities. 2. In Russia we had 100% success rate in our
exploration activities in 2008, where we utilized
For those who can apply rigorous strategies in the experiences we gained in Hungary
“contango” years and preserve significant financial
resources, there are currently multiple inorganic 3. We had one of the world‟s top 10 discoveries in
growth opportunities available at very attractive and 2009 (according to Wood Mackenzie) in the
hugely discounted prices. Kurdistan region of Iraq, which is one of the
most promising regions for growth
“...we are continuously RSC: What are your main exploration objectives in
the Eurasia region in the short, medium and long-
analyzing further term, and what news flow should the industry look
opportunities within our out for later this year and moving into 2011/2012?
other core regions to AH: We would like to continue our domestic
replace reserves at an conventional exploration in our most successful
areas but we are becoming more and more focused
appropriate risk level.” on several existing unconventional targets (i.e. the
Pannonian Basin).
If we analyze the last “oil price crisis” at the end of Beside our Hungarian exploration activity we would
the 1990‟s, a significant consolidation process took like to enter other Central-European areas, like the
place based on accumulated and preserved Romanian, Polish and Croatian exploration arenas.
resources, which have been mainly spent right after
the bottom of the cycle, providing significant In the short-term we want to use our [similar]
inorganic value generation for those who could geographic, geological and infrastructural
survive the crisis. experiences in Central-Europe here.
RSC: Looking at your global exploration strategy In the medium-term we would like to strengthen
Attila where geographically is MOL focusing on to our presence in these countries by building up a
find new reserves? What particular country new asset portfolio.
(countries) do you view as most opportunistic for
future growth? And how large ‘a play’ and part of this Considering long-term objectives we would like
strategy is the Eurasia region? to enter in to exploration of the offshore Black
Sea, either on the Romanian part, or, on other
AH: MOL pursues exploration opportunities in the offshore sections of the sea. We believe that
CEE region, in the Middle East, in Central Asia and this region of Eurasia is one of the most
in the Northern and Western parts of Africa – promising areas to discover considerable
altogether in 15 countries. hydrocarbon reserves.
As our domicile region, Eastern Europe, is relatively
explored compared to [e.g.] Western Africa and as “Forming partnerships and
such it therefore provides little room to further
increase our reserve base. strategic alliances have
We are continuously analyzing further opportunities
had a clearly visible effect
within our other core regions (e.g. Western Africa, on the performance of the
Middle East, and Central Asia) to replace reserves at
an appropriate risk level.
oil and gas industry.”
We enter certain projects on a case-by-case basis, RSC: On a similar note what production milestones
where we see real potential for significant value within the region have you set yourself this year? Are
creation, either by utilizing our knowledge gained in you on track to reach these milestones?
www.oilcouncil.com
7. AH: This year we would like to stabilize our domestic focuses on shareholder return – of course
production (in essence stop falling production rates). typical to IOCs
However our medium-term objective is to slightly We utilize this dual role in our partnerships and
increase domestic production by developing current, alliances as well. For example as an NOC, MOL has
and near-future, discoveries and start work on some taken an active role to unlock the potential in
very promising IOR/EOR projects in our more unconventional hydrocarbon resources in Hungary
“mature” fields. with the active participation of ExxonMobil.
As is widely known [and recognized] about MOL we While as an IOC, MOL is utilizing our ability to
have a strong background in field rejuvenation develop certain [technically difficult] assets in
methodologies; horizontal wells, infill drilling, 3D Pakistan, where the NOC here didn‟t have the
seismic programs, state of the art geological necessary expertise to develop their assets – our
modeling, methane and CO2 injection, and improved partnership provided both parties significant results.
water flooding.
In order to exploit the opportunities arising in the
Considering the region I do hope that we can reach currently challenging market environment, we have
the pre-mentioned exploration objectives and in built up several strategic alliances recently – with
addition that we can start production from each of OOC, INA, CEZ and other MENA partners.
the new discoveries we have made. I believe that we
are on track to reach these milestones.
RSC: I’d like to ask your opinion on four key issues
that are currently influencing the mindsets of E&P
executives: (i) partnerships, (ii) costs, (iii) technology RSC: What qualities do MOL look for in a potential
and (iv) people. partner? And for those companies perhaps looking
for new industry partners, what can MOL bring to the
Starting with partnerships, how is MOL positioning table that the industry should be more aware of?
itself to work with other oil and gas companies? Are
you looking to work as JV Partners with other IOCs, AH: MOL has been creating partnerships in the past
NOCs and perhaps even independents? What are few years along two different models.
the opportunities of partnering MOL on new
ventures? And are you always looking to retain In unconventional plays, we seek experienced and
operatorship and ownership of any new venture? financially robust partners, while in our conventional
plays, where exploration was extended to smaller
prospects close to known accumulations, we teamed
“If the NOC – IOC – up with other industry players contributing a different
approach with special regional know-how.
Service Sector is working
well together, the case- This approach has helped us decrease industry-
specific risks in our unconventional plays. Our
by-case supply-demand exceptional success rate in the CCE region in the
gaps in oil and gas past couple of years is a clear sign that this was the
right approach to take.
output can be filled in.”
As a Group we have a legacy of over 70 years in oil
and gas E&P and in developing partnerships since
AH: Forming partnerships and strategic alliances the end of the 1990s. Our experts have proven their
have had a clearly visible effect on the performance skills in many projects around the globe.
of the oil and gas industry. If the NOC–IOC–Service
Sector is working well together, the case-by-case oil The key to their success was the combination of high
and gas supply-demand output gaps can be filled in. quality performance with the understanding for our
partners‟ culture and needs.
It is important to note that in terms of NOC–IOC
relationships and partnerships, in MOL‟s operations RSC: For many companies last year was about
a dual role can be recognized: streamlining their businesses and reducing costs
wherever possible. How can E&P companies look to
On one hand, MOL is the custodian of the reduce their costs without losing their competitive
Hungarian E&P sector; owning more than 50%
of acreages in Hungary, and contributing
approx. 99% of the country‟s production – “...money and energy
which is typical to NOCs need to be (re)invested to
On the other hand MOL is building an renew our most important
international asset portfolio, has a diversified human resources”
shareholder structure, and as a listed company
www.oilcouncil.com
8. edge and effectiveness? Are their some examples
from within MOL you could share with us? Registration is now open for
AH: At times of crisis major oil companies used to our New York City and London
regard the closure of weaker fields almost as the
only solution.
Assemblies. Special discounts
In reality, writing off and liquidating human resources
for oil & gas companies. Book
are such steps whose reinstatement costs cannot, or now at www.oilcouncil.com
can fully, be assessed accurately (fundamentally for
the time required for reinstatement).
involve to the highest possible degree the operators‟
In our endeavour not only to sustain but to develop
staff into the continuous process optimisation.
the machines and devices that we use, we fight
against their depreciation and their replacement
RSC: Moving the discussion onto technology Attila,
through accurately planned accounting rules,
in the past few years a wave of innovative
planned refurbishment and renewal.
technology has emerged that is now allowing E&P
companies to operate successfully in previously
Likewise, money and energy need to be (re)invested
uneconomical and/or inaccessible oil and gas plays.
to renew our most important human resources, since
How large a factor will technology be for tomorrow’s
such technical and technological challenges, such as
E&P companies?
developing and adopting EOR/IOR techniques, or,
exploring and exploiting the reserves in operation,
AH: Generally technology can create a massive
are impossible to resolve without them!
competitive advantage over those companies that
are behind the cutting edge of technology.
Technically responsible and financially accountable
Nevertheless this competitive advantage can be
managers; experts who often possess specialised
perceived from at least two perspectives.
knowledge; background workers; and technicians; all
play a similarly important role in (i) the efficient
operation of technological systems and (ii) helping to
breed the talents of a new generation who
“Competition makes it
themselves bring new, fresh ideas, as well as, new compulsory for every
paradigms.
economic performer to
enhance efficiency.
Change and innovation
Together with the maintenance personnel dedicated
are essential in improving
to the given technological area, operators have a competitiveness.”
joint responsibility to run the process systems, the
existing technical devices, machines and equipment
at a constant optimum. Firstly that companies who use less sophisticated
technology in areas that are accessible to most of
One staff member complements the other. They their competition are in a less favourable position
must not only intend to fulfil the responsibility they than companies who can apply state of the art of
have taken, or the joint necessity they have to technologies.
operate the field, but strive to sustain [and even
develop] their personal existential status. Here the competitive advantage seems to be very
straightforward, like the Olympic motto „Citius, Altius,
Personnel, unified in this sense, who breathe Fortius‟, which in this case means that a certain
together with the technological systems they run, are exploration project can be accomplished faster,
profoundly knowledgeable about each element of the cheaper and more efficiently than those that are run
process. Practice from daily operations, gaining on has-been kind of technologies.
experiences and developing skills will allow them to
filter out the inevitably inherent but superfluous Secondly that companies who work in areas that are
elements in our systems, and to discover the only accessible to high-level technology.
optimisation potentials, to the smallest details, of all
technological processes. In this case new technology is instrumental in
achieving any success. If a company does not have
Thus, a manager‟s responsibility is not only to track such technologies their efforts will be in vain, and it
the realisation of a business plan – prepared with the can be concluded that technology is an essential
help of a well-established planning method called part of the game and its lack forms a barrier to
Zero Based Budgeting (or ZBB), i.e. an operation success. Suffice to think about the success ratio of
case-map designed to the minute detail at asset and exploration ops focusing on unconventional plays.
service level, with a constant and continuous State of the art technologies, especially a series of
engineering and cost-centre control – but also to technologies logically built along the line of
www.oilcouncil.com
9. information acquisition and interpretation can provide
a considerable amount of competitive advantage in Join Matt Simmons, Ken Hersh,
decision making and profit realization with
companies that are in a position to apply them. Ed Morse, Tom Petrie and John
Professionals who have the privilege to be
Schiller in NYC and join Andy
responsible for developing or implementing state of Bartlett, Francisco Blanch and
the art technologies also bear the responsibility for
making their company‟s decision makers aware of Jeffrey Currie in London. Book
the advantages and the risks of the technology.
now at www.oilcouncil.com
This includes the risks that might come from the
inappropriate application of the technology and
losing control over its budget. Well-trained experts All companies should be aware at all times of the
and state of the art technology go hand in hand. If corporate capabilities and expert skills they need to
any of these two prerequisites for success are meet their own strategic goals.
missing then failure becomes inherent in the system.
For this aim we worked out and implemented a
Competition makes it compulsory for every economic transparent and controllable performance evaluation
performer to enhance efficiency. Change and system based around a continuous capability matrix
innovation are essential in improving which incorporated a career management system for
competitiveness. each member of our staff.
It is highly important to harmonize the personal
“Nowadays the war for futures of your staff (including benefits, packages,
talent has become trainings, professionals or managerial careers) with
your company‟s own fortune making them aligned to
really very aggressive.” common success as much as possible.
RSC: If I may Attila I’ll wrap up by asking your one-
RSC: Moving finally onto people – many large oil word opinion (bullish, bearish or uncertain) on the
and gas companies are struggling to secure skilled future of the following. Bullish, Bearish or Uncertain?
talent and we’re already seeing a [growing] shortfall
of skilled personal within the industry (particularly RSC: China?
engineers and geologists).
AH: Bullish
Are we, as an industry, heading towards a
‘skills/talent crunch’? How is MOL looking to capture RSC: Russia?
and retain skilled E&P staff (both in management
and in operations)? AH: Uncertain
AH: As I touched on earlier trained managers, skilled RSC: Oil at $100 before the end of 2010?
experts and technicians all play an important role in
the efficient operation of technological systems and AH: Bearish
continuous improvement. To retain them is crucial
and a critical factor of the future success of any E&P RSC: Attila, thank you very much for your time and
company. your thoughts. We wish you and the team all the
very best in reaching your goals.
Nowadays the war for talent has become really very
aggressive. In this situation our managerial
responsibility is to offer our staff a long-term
professional career opportunity with personal and
professional development.
About Attila Holoda: Attila graduated (M.Sc.) from Gubkin University of Moscow, Russia in petroleum engineering in 1989. He
has MBA (finance) graduation from Budapest University of Economic Sciences as well. He joined MOL as a production
engineer in 1989. He worked in different leading positions in production, operational maintenance and investment until 1999.
He headed a Hungarian-Kazakh joint venture, and represented at the same time MOL in Atyrau, Kazakhstan between 1994
and 1995. Since 1999 he held different mid and top level managerial positions in the domestic production and exploration. He is
responsible for Hungarian and Russian E&P activities of MOL, as managing director of Eurasian E&P.
About MOL: MOL Group is an integrated oil and gas group in Hungary. In addition to Hungary, the company is present in the
Europe, the Middle East and Africa region, as also in the CIS countries, with interests in exploration, production, refining,
marketing and petrochemicals. MOL Group’s upstream operations expands in Central Europe, the CIS countries, Middle East
and North Africa. www.molgroup.hu
www.oilcouncil.com
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12. Giving Birth to Shareholder Value
Written by Alistair Stobie, Chief Financial Officer, Pan-Petroleum
As I subjected my wife to the provides the capital that allows the wells to be drilled
vicissitudes of the latest transaction in and the fields developed.
the Stobie household she remarked
that transactions seem not entirely The ex-private equity man inside me thinks that a
dissimilar to the latter stages of lifetime of investment banking is hardly ideal either.
pregnancy; you feel bloated, And this is long before we get into the discussion of
immobile, exhausted and can’t wait for the whole who has the right to apply the portfolio approach to
thing to be over. Which is exactly the point at which managing risk; the investor or the oil and gas
the problems really start. I wasn’t quite sure though company.
how ice cream fitted into the analogy.
Pan-Petroleum’s recent announced merger with the “I can think of a number
Brazilian arm of Norse Energy Corp and subsequent
listing to create a cross-Atlantic independent with of companies who have
assets in Brazil, Nigeria, Gabon and the Republic of fed frequently at the
Congo will, if I may continue to borrow from the
analogy above, mark the end of the pains of capital trough before
childbirth and the beginning of a new corporate life. creating much by the way
Whilst some would suggest that the time to think of shareholder value.”
about how others created value was perhaps prior to
the transaction, it is of course the nature of life that
the process has caused a rethink on what made Access to capital, at more or less the right price
others successful in the past. And success in this which is also aligned in its timing and expectations,
case is breaking out of the crowded small-cap space is the lifeblood of our sector. It was fashionable for a
into the headier realms of the mid-cap space. brief moment in the dark days of early 2009 to talk
about the length of the funding runway. The shorter
In search of the minnow’s nirvana, shareholder the runway, the higher the cost of capital.
returns (read personal enrichment), the small and
mid-cap E&P sector is somewhat wedded to deals; Those companies able to source capital relatively
farm-in’s, farm-out’s, farm-down’s, portfolio easily, and it’s never easy, are able to focus on
rationalisation, the desire for scale and above all the adding value, growing their portfolio and taking out
need for capital to feed the exploration and their less successful brethren. Those who struggle
development beast. are reduced to farming down earlier than they would
like in order to keep going.
Deals in this case would seem to be a proxy for
value creation. And yet if you were to read the I can think of a number of companies who have fed
management bios of a random selection of AIM- frequently at the capital trough before creating much
listed companies it wouldn’t be entirely clear where by the way of shareholder value. And I am not sure
the art of creating shareholder returns was learnt. that is a criticism.
Whilst, subsurface skill (and luck) and execution A day or so of mine was recently spent trying to
excellence inevitably play a substantial role, there is merge decision making processes across two
a theme that runs through successful companies that companies. Sitting on the table was a weighty capital
would suggest that these are necessary but not values tome from an estimable multi-billion market-
sufficient conditions. cap independent with an enviable record of
executing complex North Sea developments on time
and on budget.
There was a lot of very good material on what has to
be included in the decision gates and how to ensure
Nor are they a great place to understand the investor that you are on track between them, but very little on
mind-set, or put another way, the mind-set that how to apply risk to the value and whether, as a
www.oilcouncil.com
13. small company, the returns would still be than G&A, which keeps the institutional
commensurate with our own cost of capital. shareholder-base happy, even when other
events are following a more normal oil and gas
But does it really matter? My personal list of small emerging market path.
companies that became bigger, and in some case
really quite big, over the past few years include There is no correlation between their success
Burren Energy, Tullow, Addax and Imperial Energy. and value created through exploration, with one
notable and honourable exception
I’ve selected these naturally through past personal
involvement or because they operate in geographies Similarly there is little evidence of a combined
in which I am interested. You will note there are no focus on low-cost operations – probably
North Sea, Asia, or North America focussed because growth was deemed to be more
companies – I’m sure plenty of wealth has been important than counting the pennies.
created in these places; I just haven’t followed it.
One common strand was having a core shareholder
base who believed in the vision management was
“Strangely, these promoting. It maybe a little farfetched to refer to
them as an ‘investor fan base’, but given the hurdles
companies also share that can impede progress in our sector having a core
one other common group of shareholders who continue to believe in the
big picture is as important, if not more so than
strand – their CEO did technical skill.
not come from a big The investor base won’t stick around if faced with too
oil background” many disappointments and it’s clear that they
became fans because targets were set and met.
I don’t have personal knowledge of all these Beyond that each of these companies is relatively
companies; one I do and two others I have followed easy to understand. There was a relative geographic
directly or indirectly quite closely. Those I am most focus – extreme in Imperial’s case – and an ability to
familiar with shared a common theme of being control one’s own destiny [that is, if you believe that
process light, and rapid executive-decision heavy. you can control your destiny in Nigeria and Russia].
These qualities maybe necessary for success but Value could be easily identified in relatively few
definitely not sufficient. There are plenty of small assets and a story could be easily constructed which
E&P companies which also had rapid executive- spoke to value catalysts.
decision making as a key quality, which are no
longer with us or reside in AIM’s living dead Cause and effect; but were they rewarded by the
category. market for geographic and asset focus, or, was their
geographic and asset focus the key to their wealth
I have tried to identify a common theme between creation? Strangely, these companies also share
companies that have either broken out into the sunlit one other common strand – their CEO did not come
uplands of the FTSE250, or been acquired by a from a big oil background and serendipity has
NOC or IOC. worked in their favour.
There is some, but imperfect, correlation Written by Alistair Stobie,
between sufficient early production to fund more Chief Financial Officer, Pan-Petroleum
About Alistair Stobie: Alistair is the EVP, New Ventures and Commercial-designate at the merged Pan-Petroleum - Norse do
Brasil company and is CFO at Pan-Petroleum. Prior to Pan-Petroleum Alistair was CFO at Volga Gas, an AIM listed oil and gas
producer with assets in the European part of Russia. At Volga Gas, Alistair was responsible for all aspects of the company’ IPO
which raised $135 million in April 2007. Before Volga he worked for Baring Vostok Capital Partners, the manager of the First
NIS Regional Fund, a leading FSU-focused private equity firm. Whilst at Baring Vostok, he was responsible for the fund’s
investment in Burren Energy and represented the fund on the board of directors from 1994 – 1998. After Baring Vostok, Alistair
worked for Urals Trading and a Burren Energy subsidiary establishing new business ventures in Russia.
Contributing an Article
Oil Council Partners have first option on writing articles and papers for inclusion in ‘Drillers and Dealers’. We do
welcome other recognised executives, organisations and companies to contribute articles on topical oil and gas
matters. Articles must be content-led rather than sales-led. If you would like to contribute an article for a future
edition of ‘Drillers and Dealers’ please express your interest by contacting either:
Ross Stewart Campbell, CEO, ross.campbell@oilcouncil.com, or Iain Pitt, COO, iain.pitt@oilcouncil.com
www.oilcouncil.com
15. 2010 Global Oil & Gas Survey Results
1. What type of company/organisation do you represent?
Independent Oil & Gas Company
Oil & Gas Consultancy
Financial Service Provider (Bank/Advisor/Stockbroker/Investment Dealer)
Major Oil & Gas Company
Investor (SWF/Institutional/Asset Management/Private Equity/HNWI)
Law/Accountancy Firm
Oil &/or Gas Service Company
National Oil & Gas Company
Equipment or Technology Provider
Government Official / Regulator
Other
Insurance Broker or Risk Management Firm
80
2. Are you bullish, bearish or uncertain, about the future of:
70
80
70
60
60
50 Bullish
50
Bearish
40
40 Uncertain
30
30
20
10
20
0 10
National Oil & Gas Companies
Major Oil & Gas Companies
The US Dollar
US Natural Gas Markets
Iraq as a major international oil province
Mid-cap Oil & Gas Companies
Small-cap Oil & Gas Companies
Oil & Gas Service Companies
Banks
Oil Sands
60 35
50 30
25
40
20
30
15
20
10
10 5
www.oilcouncil.com info@oilcouncil.com Oil Council
0 0
16. 20
10
3. What do you expect to see happen to the oil and gas markets in 2010?
60 35
50 30
25
40
20
30
15
20
10
10 5
0 0
A slow, steady and
continued recovery
A progressive
weakening/
deterioration
Other
Increased volatility
and uncertainty
4. Which of the following holds the greatest investment potential in 2010?
35 60
30 50
25
40
20
30
15
20
10
5 10
0 0
Major (blue-chip) Oil &
Gas Companies
Mid-cap Oil & Gas
Companies
Small-cap Oil & Gas
Companies
Oil & Gas Service
Companies
www.oilcouncil.com info@oilcouncil.com Oil Council
17. 5. Are we likely to see another oil price spike in 2010?
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Yes No Uncertain
6. What in your opinion will be the peak oil price in 2010?
$80
$95
$110
$125
$140+
7. What in your opinion will be the average oil price in 2010?
<$50
$50-60
$60-70
$70-80
$80-90
$90+
www.oilcouncil.com info@oilcouncil.com Oil Council
18. 8. What are the three biggest challenges facing oil and gas companies in 2010?
Access to capital and finance for new investment
Access to new reserves
Manpower crunch / lack of leadership and talent
9. Which of the following will be most important in determining the success of an oil and gas company in
2010?
Exploration / drill-bit success
Strong cash flow and access to capital / investment
Acquisition of new reserves
A strong leadership / management team
Industry partnerships with governments, advisors and other
partners
Investor relations and corporate communications
Capital and cost management
Asset quality and increasing the efficiency and development of
existing producing assets
10. Who will be most influential in determining the landscape of the oil and gas industry in 2010?
Governments and Regulators
Investors 0 5 10 15 20 25
Traders and Speculators
Banks and Financiers
Major Oil & Gas Companies
National Oil & Gas Companies
China
The USA
The Middle East
OPEC
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
www.oilcouncil.com info@oilcouncil.com Oil Council
19. 11. Which geographic region now offers the best exploration opportunities to oil and gas companies?
West Africa
East Africa
North Africa and the Middle East
North America
Central and South America
Russia and the CIS
Southern Asia
South-eastern Asia
The North Sea and Norwegian Continental Shelf
Other (please specify)
12. In comparison to 2009 will the industry in 2010 see more, less, or the same volume, of:
0
80
70
60
More
50
Less
40 The same
30
20
10
0
IPOs
Secondary capital raisings
De-listings
Asset-level M&A/A&D deals
Corporate-level M&A/A&D deals
Insolvencies
Redundancies
World-class exploration successes
Oil price volatility
Share price volatility
www.oilcouncil.com info@oilcouncil.com Oil Council
20. 13. Are banks providing enough capital to ensure the continued recovery of the oil and gas industry?
80
70
60 Yes
50 Yes but more is needed as are better terms and conditions
No
40
30
20
10
0
14. What source of capital / finance will be most utilised in 2010 by oil & gas companies?
Equity Capital Markets
50
Debt Markets
Mezzanine Finance 0 5 10
40 15 20 2
M&A / A&D deals 30
Private Equity 20
IPOs 10
JVs, Farm-ins, Concessions. PSAs 0
Large Strategic Investors
Other
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
15. Value for money in service provision? Are current service costs:
50
40
30
20
10
0
Significantly
over-priced
Correct
Slightly
overpriced
for today’s
marketplace
Slightly
underpriced
Significantly
underpriced
10 15 20 25 30 35
www.oilcouncil.com info@oilcouncil.com Oil Council
21. ‘On the Spot’ with our Question of the Month
““What defining qualities and characteristics do
oil and gas executives (CEOs, CFOs and COOs)
need to possess to lead their company to new
growth in today's marketplace?”
“The defining characteristic for leaders in the energy business to have is the ability to
manage effectively amidst heightened uncertainty. Simply put, there is a greater list of
unknowns than ever before, so leaders must be those who are able to be decisive and
provide organisational direction when not all the answers are readily apparent.”
... Ken Hersh, CEO, NGP Energy Capital Management and Managing Partner,
Natural Gas Partners (Oil Council Committee Member)
“The single most essential quality and characteristic is really mindset based and not
complicated at all. The CEO that possesses, or acquires, the unwavering mindset to
continuously and exclusively focus on establishing a sustainable competitive advantage in
every action or initiative, no matter how large or how small, will unquestionably achieve
performance superiority. Such a composite, sustainable competitive advantage will
produce superior financial results as a natural by-product.”
... Franz Ehrhardt, CEO and Principle Consultant, CASCA Consulting LLC
(Oil Council Committee Member)
“In the oil and gas world „what‟ questions normally require an „it depends‟ answer. In the
posed question the phrase „new growth‟ may need to be defined and then any likely
answer will tend to „it depends‟! It may depend on the stage of the company (explorer,
pre-production, producer, domestic, international, multi-location, etc), or on the size of the
company (market capitalisation, number of employees, balance sheet, etc). However in
very broad terms oil and gas executives need to have vim, vigour, dash and
determination. It also helps to sport a Stetson, bootlace tie and cowboy boots!”
... Jonathan Morley-Kirk, Director, Petrokamchatka
“Senior management at all oil and gas companies in today's environment needs to be both
innovative and flexible in order to steer their organisations toward successful growth,
whether it be organic or through strategic asset or corporate acquisition. The true test today
for the CEO of a junior or independent E&P company, particularly one with a portfolio in
need of geographic diversification, will be in his ability to convince the Board to maintain a
nimble attitude towards capital allocation in order to position the company to take advantage
of the increasingly active marketplace for assets in certain "hot" areas like the US shale
plays, West Africa and several spots in Southeast Asia (Vietnam and Indonesia in
particular). If that CEO can approach asset acquisition and/or partnership decisions
efficiently and marshal the cash and managerial resources to execute and integrate, the
current environment is ripe for deals which could provide for solid growth, enhanced
corporate visibility and risk diversification – all potentially very good for the shareholders.”
... Ian Fay, Founding Partner, Odin Advisors (Oil Council Partner)
www.oilcouncil.com
22. “Growth is many faceted, from reserves growth, to production in BOE/day growth, to prime license acreage held,
to profitability, or more accurately, lowering finding and development costs / bbl produced. Our perspective is
identified by the following points below, all of which can be attributed back to the adoption of sound principles of
eCommerce:
A CFO needs to have the vision to recognise the latent and un-tapped value in his supply chain, not
(just) through driving down vendor costs using his Procurement department as a battering ram, but
understanding his supply chain‟s pain points, collaborating with them to ease the pain (if not remove it
entirely), and liberate value, which just like cream, will rise to the top when encouraged.
A CEO needs to recognise one of their roles is being the ultimate long-term executive sponsor of driving
business process efficiency into their organisation. Challenging the way business is done today, not just
electrifying paper business processes, but looking to streamline efficiencies through their supply chain,
and even enforcing change management, against the natural human resistance.
All three, the CEO, COO and CFO have a responsibility for shareholder value
growth. To do this they need to be able to demonstrate a very high level of
transparency in all aspects of the organisation‟s business. This would start
perhaps with full SOX compliance, and extend to contract compliance,
tendering processes, and the accounting for all cash flow out of the company
being simple and clearly identifiable. Having as high a proportion of the
business run as eCommerce facilitates this significantly.”
... William Le Sage, CEO, OFS Portal, LLC (Oil Council Partner)
"In a timeless way, today's successful oil and gas executives will either posses those
characteristics attributed to a Renaissance person, or, have built a team that
accomplishes this by sufficiently complimenting one another. They need to be diplomats
by nature, whilst being highly calculating, with the ability to intimately integrate their skills
by communicating effectively. They need to be both individually and collectively capable in
a multidisciplinary sense, thereby bringing together specific industry expertise and
experience, technical and otherwise, as well as, a thorough understanding of the financial
and commodities markets – past, present and projected."
... Chris Valenti, Energy Investment Banker, Starlight Investments, LLC (Oil Council Member)
“Integrity, drive and effective motivational skills are common among top executives, regardless of sector.
Leading oil and gas executives, however, are characterized by additional qualities and skills:
Vision – to articulate (and stick to) clear strategies
Boldness – to identify and seize opportunities as yet unexploited by others, but tempered by…
Risk awareness – to take calculated risks, and know when to walk away from a deal
Network – to bring together the right team of experts, financers and advisers both inside and outside
the company
Experience – the most successful executives have been in the industry for a long
time, and understand the business from the ground up (in fact, from the sub-
surface up)
Socio-political awareness – local, regional and global political, environmental
and security issues impact oil and gas companies to a far greater degree than
many other sectors. Understanding the wider context in which E&P companies
operate can mean the difference between success and failure.”
... Afonso Reis e Sousa, Director, Taylor-DeJongh (Oil Council Partner)
“Courage and honesty. With the exception of downstream sales, the oil and gas industry produces commodity
products – oil and gas. The principal area of differentiation lies in a company‟s reputation for responsible
excellence with resource holders. Yet it is often hard to see this differentiation in practice, and the industry as a
www.oilcouncil.com
23. whole has at best a tarnished reputation. If a „customer‟ is someone who allows you to make a profit, then, by
definition, a „customer‟ is anyone who has the ability to stop you making a profit. I would argue that having the
courage to truly engage with these „customers‟ is essential to earn and maintain the license-to-operate. To do so
requires honesty, the willingness to listen and, once promises are made, the relentless drive to always live up to
those promises. Amongst the myriad of challenges senior executives face, this is one that leverages the most
skills – and experience has shown that earning the trust of the public at large is not through
technical or commercial „logic‟, but by recognising that people form views based on
emotions. If oil and gas executives are unable to engage constructively in this way, and
ensure that all employees live up to promised actions and values, reputation can be
destroyed overnight, severely compromising one‟s licence-to-operate. The only source of
true future value is sustainable profits – sustainable companies are therefore sustainable
businesses.”
... Lew Watts, Chairman, Regester Larkin North America (Oil Council Partner)
“The defining qualities and characteristics that we look for and that we think executives
need to posses starts with their ability to recruit and lead their team, potential joint venture
partners and the service companies that will be a part of any project‟s success. An
executive with that level of leadership and people skills stacks the odds in their favour.
This needs to be followed up with self-discipline and attention to detail to mitigate risk; like
pursuing low-cost production options and following through on accountability systems they
set up for the teams they work with.
The greatest results are delivered by an executive with a relentless tenacity to reach a well
defined destination [that they themselves have chosen] and who has the friendly people
skills that cause others to want to do business with them.”
... Jess Larsen, President and Senior Managing Director, Katana Oil & Gas Fund (Oil Council Partner)
“So you want to start up an oil and gas company? Did you get your team altogether? Did you get a list of
everything you needed? Great! Did you remember the soapbox, the slide ruler and the steak sandwich?
Running a junior oil and gas company in today's marketplace is no different than it has been in the past. Yes the
regulations have been increased, yes the costs are higher, and yes the basins are harder to find but one thing
remains...it's about effectively working with different kinds of people towards a common goal.
The three best tools an executive team can use for managing people in an oil and gas company are (i) the
soapbox, (ii) the slide ruler and (iii) the steak sandwich.
i. A soapbox is required to raise oneself up to make an impromptu speech. Every company needs an
executive that has the passion to tell the corporate story to investors, analysts, board members, and
staff. The vision of success is orated at every opportunity keeping corporate objectives in the forefront at
all times.
ii. A slide ruler is required to ensure that the facts are correct. This executive has a passion for the
empirical facts and calculations. They are an irreplaceable addition to the finance department, the
technical team and the board of directors. They keep the dreams in check with reality.
iii. A steak sandwich is a Friday lunch tradition in the oil patch. It‟s about actively listening to, and
observing, those you are with and those in the room around you. This executive is the one that is asked
the hard questions first and is first approached with the new ideas to bring up at management meetings.
The interesting thing about these three items is that they cannot be placed specifically into
the CEO, CFO or COO roles. The qualities that each item brings to the effective leadership
of an oil and gas company has been indispensible for growth in the past and remains so in
the future.
So my questions are, which one are you and what is your team missing?”
... Chris McLean, President, Stonechair Capital Corp. (Oil Council Member)
www.oilcouncil.com
24. “Leadership roles in oil and gas companies need multi-dimensional skills and experiences. Oil and gas is a long-
term business. To ensure enduring success, leaders must develop longer term strategic perspectives, which will
assist the organisation to navigate during short-term cyclical swings, typical of the industry. More importantly,
leaders must have the ability to execute and deliver the strategy in an increasingly complex global business.
Given that growth will come from emerging economies like China, India and Africa, leaders must have multi-
cultural insights and global work experiences in these geographies – to build organisations aligned to local
priorities while maximising shareholder/local government value. Given also the concentration of resources within
national companies – who increasingly demand more “value” for their resources and have to serve domestic
development agendas – leaders must also have the strategic priority to be aligned with host nations and NOCs.
The majority of oil and gas businesses are developed in joint ventures and partnerships. Local partners often
assist in developing the business on the ground. Leaders must have the experience and ability to forge win-win
partnerships with unity of vision and mutually beneficial objectives, and have the diplomatic expertise to manage
any conflicts and differences. Leaders should also be able to strongly articulate and implement standards of
corporate governance, ethical values, business principles and HSE without compromise.
Leaders must develop local talent to fill senior positions (rather than expatriates) and to also ensure appropriate
social responsibility/community development efforts, which are often crucial for projects round the world. Leaders
must lead their organisations to “globalise with localisation”, i.e., ensure multi-prong sharing of ideas, best
practices and benchmarking. Emerging technologies will hold the key for many of today‟s strategic issues facing
the industry, including climate and environmental impact. Leaders must lead their organisations to leverage on
these developments and carry out business with minimum damage to environment.
Other key areas of expertise required to be successful include: (i) commercial and market access (ii) robust
project investment decisions based on sound judgement, economics, screening, risk management and financing,
and (iii) execution capabilities, whether in-house or outsourced.”
... Soumo Bose, Former CEO, Gasol
“As someone who raises capital for oil and gas management teams from private equity funds, my views mirror
those of private equity. The track record of the management team is paramount to private equity investment
decisions. Past achievements such as sizable discoveries, raising production and reducing costs are valued.
Management teams that have previously built and sold companies for high ROIs and IRRs are also prized, as are
ones that have demonstrated capital allocation acumen, making good choices where [and where not] to deploy
similar scales of capital as they will steward in the new company.
Management teams that have worked for many years together are preferable in order to avoid personality
conflicts and allow them to really hit the ground running together. Equally, they should be highly experienced in
the region or play type to avoid nasty surprises. A North Sea team now deciding to focus of shale does not fly,
and vice versa. Management teams that have invested 30-50 % of their liquid net worth in the company are also
more likely to attract private equity, as their interests are aligned with the funds when their financial futures are
dependent on the success of the company. Equally, managers of successful private equity backed companies
stand to build considerable personal wealth.
Drive, vision and passion for building their company is vital, along with intelligence, expertise and interpersonal
abilities. After the trials of the last couple of years, funds are definitely also looking for teams that will be
adaptable and responsive, but also steady hands and pleasant to work with to overcome challenges together.”
... Emilie Sydney-Smith, Partner, MZ Finance
“For publicly listed companies (any exchange), I would venture that an ability to communicate the company's
message to the investor base is critical for the executive members. In addition, for all companies (public and
private) two key attributes are: (i) a the ability to attract and motivate the right talent (very critical in today's oil and
gas world), and (ii) negotiation skills (be it with host governments or partners on concessions).”
... Rafi Khouri, Oil & Gas Equity Analyst, Raymond James
“I would add that an ability to adapt to change is vital. The oil and gas industry is sometimes criticised as
traditional and unbending, and not open to using new methods of communication, in particular Web 2.0. In times
of economic constraint it is a willingness to be open to new ideas that may give a competitive edge.”
... Tracey Dancy, Marketing Executive, RPS Energy
www.oilcouncil.com
25. Oil & Gas Company
Executives, register now
Oil Council
online for only $1000
ENERGY CAPITAL ASSEMBLY AMERICAS
Matthew Simmons Ken Hersh Tom Petrie
Founder and Chairman, Simmons Founder and CEO, NGP Energy Vice Chairman,
& Company International Capital Management Bank of America – Merrill Lynch
Attendee registration information: Laurent Lafont laurent.lafont@oilcouncil.com +44 (0) 20 3287 3447
For sponsorship or exhibition information: Ross Campbell ross.campbell@oilcouncil.com +44 (0) 20 8673 3327
For media information: Iain Pitt iain.pitt@oilcouncil.com +27 (0) 71 858 1025
26 – 28 October 2010
New York, USA
Oil & Gas Company
Executives, register now
online for only £995
Oil Council WORLD ENERGY CAPITAL ASSEMBLY
Jonathan Waghorn Jeffrey Currie Pierre Sigonney
Portfolio Manager and Sector Global Head, Commodities Chief Economist, Total
Specialist (Energy), Investec Asset Research, Goldman Sachs
Management
Attendee registration information: Laurent Lafont laurent.lafont@oilcouncil.com +44 (0) 20 3287 3447
For sponsorship or exhibition information: Ross Campbell ross.campbell@oilcouncil.com +44 (0) 20 8673 3327
For media information: Iain Pitt iain.pitt@oilcouncil.com +27 (0) 71 858 1025
23 – 25 November 2010
London, UK