11 miller

What Success Looks Like

Chris Miller
President
Illuminomics

iCanada Conference
Building an Intelligent Nation

Assessing Intelligent Communities

New Weighs of Seeing

Chris Miller
CEO Illuminomics

Nov 16th 2011

2 Illuminomics | PO Box 10754, Savannah, GA 31412 | 912-484-7192 |
www.illuminomics.com

A Move Beyond the Basics

•  Measuring the new economy with old tools?
•  New sources and lots of them
•  Moving beyond quantity and measuring quality
•  Taking a holistic approach - its not just about jobs
•  Keepin’ it real - what counts, what doesn’t
•  Digging deep
•  Ways to measure
•  Innovative approaches
•  Anecdotal measures
•  What does success look like?

The Valdosta Story
Context

The city of Valdosta is located in south-central Georgia and because of
regional and historic factors, has seen relatively low average wages and
slow economic growth.

As with many rural areas and major parts of the U.S., they have seen a
once strong manufacturing base steadily erode over time, dramatically
altering the regional economy and putting downward pressure on overall
average wages.

These job losses were somewhat offset by rapid growth in the retail sector
as Valdosta became a major shopping destination for traffic on the I-85
corridor as well as the region. However, because of the historically low
wages paid by the retail sector, it did little to staunch the continued decline
of overall average wages within the community.

4

The Valdosta Story
Targeting Smart Sectors

In 2004 Valdosta-Lowndes Chamber of Commerce, headed by Myrna
Ballard, engaged illuminomics to help craft an innovative, strategic
framework that would increase average wages in the region by the targeted
growth and creation of higher-wage, knowledge-based and creative jobs.

Now, after 5 years of steady progress in creating and enhancing the
economic, social and urban environmental factors that can accelerate the
growth and creation of “smart jobs”, Valdosta has arrived at point where the
direct impact of these programs can be easily seen and measured by solid,
authoritative and quantifiable data.

This data, from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the U.S.
Department of Labor, shows that not only has this targeted strategic effort
slowed down the decades long decline of the regional average wage, it has
quite literally, turned it around.

5

The Valdosta Story
The Results

As you will see in the next few slides, during the period that the Chamber has run
its TBEC program (Targeted Business Expansion Council) Valdosta has gone from
a declining economic position, relative to the U.S., Georgia and its peer group of
similar cities, to a complete reversal with Valdosta now outperforming the U.S., the
state of Georgia, and 5 of its 6 peer group cities in “TBEC-sector” job growth,
average wage growth, as well as wage cost of housing declines (% of monthly
salary devoted to housing).

The purpose of this brief summary and the attached graphs is to show that by
enhancing the economic, social, urban and environmental factors attractive to high-
wage job workers, with a clear focus, innovative programs, a high degree of
collaboration and a steady effort, that a community can take control of its own
economic fate and turn-around even the toughest case of historic declines into
becoming an “intelligent city” capable of competing in the modern global economy.

This is a “proof-of-the-pudding” success story. It isn’t quick, it isn’t easy, but in a
day and age of very tough economic head-winds and significant national job
losses, it should be encouraging to know that the path to becoming an intelligent
city works; and in doing so, it is possible to turn around the economy of a city and
improve the quality of life for its residents.

6

Valdosta-Lowndes 2011 Economic Survey
prepared by Illuminomics for Valdosta-Lowndes Chamber of Commerce

Regional Wage and Employment Trends
A Comparative Analysis 1990-2010

The following analysis was performed by Illuminomics with the support of the
Valdosta-Lowndes Chamber of Commerce.
All data contained in this analysis is taken directly from the most authoritative local,
state and nationally recognized sources, using the most currently available data sets.
To ensure data accuracy and integrity, no multipliers were used in any calculations
and all non-confidential data can be independently verified from public sources.
Chris Miller
CEO Illuminomics

Myrna Ballard
President Chamber of Commerce

Tara Nichols
Vice President Chamber of Commerce

Nov 11th 2011 v4.5


Targeted Business Expansion Sectors

NAICS TBEC Sector Description
Information Technology
511-- Publishing industries (including software)
512-- Motion picture and sound recording industries
515-- Broadcasting, except Internet
516-- Internet publishing and broadcasting
517-- Telecommunications
518-- Data processing, hosting and related services
519-- Other information services

Environmental Technology
541-- Professional, technical & design services
551-- Management of companies and enterprises

Medical Services & Support (listed separately as “Health Care”)
621-- Ambulatory health care services (physicians, dentists, labs, etc)
622-- Hospitals
** North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS) codes provide a 1 to 5 digit classification number to
8 describe various types of economic activity. TBEC and TBEC+ are composites of the above 3 digit NAICS codes.

Economic Sector Size by Jobs
Valdosta MSA, 2010
Sector Size by Percent of Total Jobs
35%
31.1%
30%
25%
% of total jobs

20%
15.8%
14.6%14.2%
15% 12.8%
11.3%
10% 7.5%
5.0% 4.1% 4.1%
5% 3.0% 2.8% 2.2% 2.1%
1.4% 0.4%
0%

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9 SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics - Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages - www.bls.gov/data

Economic Sector Size by Wages
Valdosta MSA, 2010
Sector Size by Percent of Total Wages
40%
34.5%
% of total wages

30%

19.4%
20%
15.4%
13.7%
10.9%
9.7%
10%
5.7% 5.6% 5.2% 5.1%
4.1%
2.9% 2.8% 2.0%
1.4%
0.3%
0%

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SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics - Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages - www.bls.gov/data

Economic Sector Size by Wages vs. Jobs
Valdosta MSA, 2010
Sector Size by Percent of Wages vs. Jobs
34.5%
31.1%
% of total jobs vs. total wages

25%

19.4%
20% 15.8%

15.4%
13.7% 14.6%
15% 14.2%
Total Wages
12.8%
11.3%
10.9%
9.7% Total Jobs
10%
7.5%
5.7% 5.6% 5.2%
5.1% 5.0%
5% 4.1% 4.1%
3.0%
4.1%
2.9% 2.8% 2.8% 1.4%
2.1% 2.2%
2.0%
1.4% 0.4%
0.3%
0%

Fo e
& uc t

A le ur.
an il T e

na Se ing
.

ou n

& es

uc te
es y
Fe & H g

n
isu ct e
t
at EC

lth ovt

s. str ov
sp
ov

& rad

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tio
A W' tio
M ta ar
Le ufa ad

n

Ed ta
W nce rvic

sa Ins
re uri
St TB

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an n G

s
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H eG

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Re r e

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ho


12
average annual salary

Tr
an
s.
& Ut

$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000

$0
W ilit
Fe 'ho ies 70
Fi de us ,6
na r in 29
nc al g 51
M e Go ,5
a 67
W nu & In vt 41
ho fa s ,9
80
le ct ur. 41
sa ur ,8
80
C le ing 39
on Tr ,4
st ad 48
ru e 38
ct ,2
io 95
H 37
ea TB n ,9
lth EC 10
37
St C ,3
$42,859

at a 81
r 37
Lo e G e ,1

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics - Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages - www.bls.gov/data
15
Georgia avg wage

ca o
v
Valdosta MSA, 2010

36
A Re l G t ,4
dm a o 74
l v 33
in Est t ,7
Se at 24
Re rv e 29
,4
Average Wages by Sector

A tai ice 86
g lt s 25
Average Annual Salary by Sector

& ra ,2
Fo de 64
22
Le Ed res ,7
isu uc try 30
22
re at ,3
& ion 48
H 20
,9
os
$30,416

88
p. 12
,1
97
Valdosta avg wage

Short Term Economic Change
Valdosta MSA, 2001-2010
15.5% Average Annual Percent Job Growth by Sector
annual % change in number of jobs

15%

10.5%
10%
Valdosta 9 year annualized
6.4%
5.7% 5.3% job growth +0.4%
5.2% 5.1%
4.6%
5%
2.9%
-0.5%
0.7% 0.2% -0.9%
0% -3.3%

e
ovt

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Ca
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te G

& In

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ca
-3.0%
l Es

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alth

ac
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ail
-4.5%
Edu

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ole

Ag
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Wh

Tra

Short vs. Long Term Economic Change
Average Annual Percent Job Growth by Sector
annual % change in number of jobs

16% 15.5% 1992-2010 vs. 2001-2010
overall average annual growth
12.5% 1992-2010 2001-2010
12% 11.0% 10.5%

8.7%
8%
6.4% 6.3%
5.4% 5.7% 5.6% 5.8%
5.3% 5.2%
4.1% 4.6%
4.3%
3.9%
4% 2.9%
2.1% 1.4%
1.3%
5.1% 0.6% 1.1%
0.7%
0.2% 0.2% 0.4%
0%
-0.5% -0.9%

Education

W'housing
Construction

Manufacturing
TBEC
Services
Leisure &

Finance &

Ag & Forestry
State Govt
Local Govt

Federal Govt

Wholesale
Health Care
Real Estate

Retail Trade
Admin

-2.4%

Trans. &
Hosp.

-4% -3.0%

Insur.
Trade
-3.3%
-4.5%


TBEC Sector Size and Growth Comparisons
various MSA’s, 2001-2010
TBEC Sector % Share & Annualized Change in Jobs
annualized % change in employment

TBEC Sector Share of All Jobs (2010) 23.2%
TBEC Change in Number of Jobs (2001-2010)
22% 19.6%
All Industies Job Growth 2001-2010 (annualized)

15.8%
16% 14.1%
11.6%
10%
6.0%
4.6%
3.3% 2.9%
4% 1.4% 1.7%
0.4% 0.7%

-2% ns
-0.7% -0.6%
e

e
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a

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m
st

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a
do

la

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b
C

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A
s-
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th

ar
A

W


TBEC Growth Trend Comparisons ST
Cumulative Job Growth in TBEC and All Industries
40%
cumulative % growth of jobs

TBEC Jobs (+41.4%)
30%
avg. salary: $37,381

20%

All Jobs (+3.9%)
avg. salary: $30,416
10%
All Jobs except TBEC (-0.6%)

0%
2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010
-10%


TBEC Sector Trend Breakdown
Job Growth Comparison Between TBEC Sectors
10000

8000
number of TBEC+ jobs

Healthcare Services
6000 (+82.4%)

4000

Management of Companies (-55.2%) avg. salary: $47,853
2000
Technical and Professional (+52..3%) avg. salary $43,375
0 Information Services (+103%) avg. salary:
1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Long Term Avg Wage Comparisons US
Real Avg. Wages as % of U.S. Avg Wage
U.S. average wage = 100%
100%
Georgia (-2.3%)
% of U.S. average wage

90%
Warner-Robbins (+2.6%)

Athens (-9.3%) Rome (-7.9%)
80%

Albany (-6.0%)

70%

Valdosta (-6.4%)
60%
1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Short Term Avg Wage Comparisons US
Real Avg. Wages as % of U.S. Avg Wage
U.S. average wage = 100%
100%
Georgia (-5.3%)
% of U.S. average wage

90% Warner-Robbins (+4.3%)

Athens (-1.6%)
80% Rome (-3.0%)

Albany (-0.9%)

70%
Valdosta (+0.9%)

60%
2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Percent of Salary Spent on Housing US
Wage Cost of Homeownership as a % of U.S.
120%
Valdosta (-3.3%)
% above or below US avg

110% Athens (+1.7%)
Georgia (+2.8%)
USA ( = to 100%)
100%
Warner-Robbins (-2.3%)
Albany (-1.2%)
90%
Rome (+11.1%)

80%
2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

A Final Word
About the Data In This Analysis
Illuminomics used data for its analysis from the most authoritative sources: The Georgia
Department of Labor, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. Department of Labor and the
U.S. Census Bureau. To obtain private disaggregate wage and employment data,
Illuminomics and the Valdosta-Lowndes Chamber signed a confidentiality agreement with the
Georgia Department of Labor to protect individual company data concerning employment
and wages, especially in circumstances when only a few companies reside in a specific
sector. Therefore, there are times when the public data and the privately aggregated data
differ. In those circumstances, the privately aggregated data contained in this report is the
more accurate.

Moreover, the Georgia Department of Labor constantly revises its historical data sets. Those
revisions are not always released to the public. Illuminomics, however, has access to those
revisions and has incorporated them into this analysis. In some cases that may cause public
and privately aggregated data to differ ever so slightly, with this analysis often more
accurate than what would be available to the general public.

Finally, care should be taken when comparing two data sets representing the same
information. Those data sets may differ in locality (MSA vs. County), time period (month vs.
quarter); interval time-length and industry control (private vs. public sector).

Chris Miller
cmiller@illuminomics.com

Quantity Growth or Quality Impact?

DAIMLER-CHYSLER TCCi

total jobs created 3000 199

total project expenditures $320,000,000 $590,351

total annual wages created $164,805,000 $11,094,135

project cost per job created $106,666 $2,967

wages generated/$ spent $0.51 $18.79

wages generated/acre $96,944 $9,984,721


What’s Really Going On?
Chatham County, 1990-2005
The Two Most Significant 15 Year Employment Trends
18,000

Average Annual Salary : $13,993
17,000

16,000
Manufacturing

15,000 Leisure and
Hospitality
Jobs

14,000 Manufacturing

Leisure &
13,000 Hospitality

12,000

Average Annual Salary : $55,986
11,000

10,000
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004


Digging a Little Deeper
Average Wage Distribution
Savannah MSA, 2003
18%

16%

14%

12%
Percent of Jobs

10%
Savannah
8%

6%

4%

2%

0%
0

0

0

0

0

20

80

40

00

60

20

00
32

48

64

80

96

1

2

4

6

7

9

0
-$

-$

-$

-$

-$

$1

$1

$1

$1

$1

$1

$4
40

00

60

20

80

0-

0-

0-

0-

0-

0-

0-
$2

$4

$5

$7

$8

04

20

36

52

68

84

00
$1

$1

$1

$1

$1

$1

Average Weekly Wage $2


New Tools For a New Economy

Who Do Ya Love? ……….SAVANNAH!
How the world views various places from the lens of Internet search engines.

Go to Google, type in “I Love <any city>”, then substitute “hate” for “love”.
What you get is a love/hate ratio. What you get is a number for how many people felt
strongly enough about their like/dislike opinions to put it somewhere on a web page.
These numbers are what they are and no one can really manipulate them.
The simple fact is: People are passionate about Savannah!

love/hate ratio: 47.1 love/hate ratio: 11.0
"i love savannah" +ga: 1,130 "i love charlotte" +nc: 1050
"i hate savannah" +ga: 24 "i hate charlotte" +nc: 95

"i love asheville" +nc: 586 "i love raleigh" +nc: 284
"i hate asheville" +nc: 18 "i hate raleigh" +nc: 51

"i love greenville" +sc: 104 "i love jacksonville" +fl: 264
"i hate greenville" +sc: 10 "i hate jacksonville" +fl: 82

"i love charleston" +sc: 473 "i love atlanta" +ga: 908
"i hate charleston" +sc: 28 "i hate atlanta" +ga: 483


So Much Data, So Little Mining

•  studies & reports •  independent ratings/rankings
•  wikipedia •  newspaper/magazine articles
•  ground proofing •  yellow pages
•  google search •  blogs
•  surveys •  twitter posts
•  interviews •  web sites
•  govt info •  ranking
- fed- census, DOL, BLS, FBI
•  private data sources
- state - Chamber
- county - CVB
- realtors
- city
- colleges
- econ dev


How Cool is Cool
Surveying the Urban Landscape

inviting sidewalks visible transition between size of historic area
urban/suburb/rural auto orientation
outside tables
street activity Way-finding
pedestrians
density mixed use
tree canopy
distance to water mixed income
meeting places
tree canopy parks
public space
park benches good lighting
interesting architecture
public restrooms utility placement
wifi networks
"cool spots" architecture
bicycles charm
coffee shops
cleanliness critical mass
live music venues
dominant features cleanliness / litter
interesting layout
smell


Summing It All Up
Intelligent cities need to be measured in intelligent ways
There is a wealth of new data out there
Look and think beyond the obvious
Focus on quality, not just quantity
Take a holistic perspective
Benchmark against others
Consider the trends
Think long-term
Keep it real

Thank you!
Chris Miller
Illuminomics

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