1. Scottish Carbon Capture & Storage
Murchison House, West Mains Road, Edinburgh EH9 3LA
Telephone +44 (0)131 650 0270 www.sccs.org.uk
Scotland centred energy 2030
Building a vision for Scotland’s energy future
12 March 2014, ECCI
Stuart HASZELDINE
University of Edinburgh

2. 2
Storyline
Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk
Context -42% carbon by 2020 - 60% by 2030
- 90% carbon by 2050 (ref 1990 base)
• All regions make extensive use of their
regional renewables potential
• Electricity is exchanged through the country
• Pumped storage is exploited
• Electricity import – minimal
• Electricity export - encouraged

3. 3
Climate and unburnable carbon
Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014
“Cumulative total emissions of
CO2 and global mean surface
temperature response are
approximately linearly related”
IPCC 2013 AR5 WG1
now
Emission reduction
2050 limit for 2 C
50% confidence
No action
2100 limit
for > 8 C
50%
confidence
Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk
TOTAL emissions of fossil carbon have to be contained
Not just the rate of emission : CCS, RES, Efficiency buy time
Industry needs CCS. Unburnable carbon V hydrocarbon production

4. 4Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk
http://www.sccs.org.uk/news/2013/IndustrialCO
nd.pdf
NOT just electricity
Energy USE
Energy EXTRACTED and EXPORTED
Scotland is a
hydrocarbon use
economy
10 Mt CO2 “saved by Res
electricity” 2012 (simple calc. )
10

5. 5
Scotland extracts hydrocarbons
Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk
NOT just electricity
Energy USE
Energy EXTRACTED and EXPORTED
http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2006/01/19092748/8
Energy Study
2006 TWhr
Wind 2012
15 TWhr
37 TWhr total
Electricity 33 TWhr/yr 2006

6. 6
Scotland energy use = electric + heat
Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk
http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/20
06/01/19092748/8
TOTAL energy use = electric + heat + transport + industry + …. 166 TWHr / yr 2006

7. 7
Vision : energy demand
Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk
Other carbon emissions
Heat
2014 demand 2030 demand
Heat
Power Power
Industry
Travel
Industry
Land
20%
Planes
&
ships
Renewables and CCS
CCS ONLY
Travel
Efficiency, gas, electric

8. 8
Vision : energy supply 2030
Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk
2030
Wind – onshore 20 TW hr
(+ 20 TWhr offshore)
(Tide 2 TWhr /yr)
(Wave 1 TWhr / yr)
Gas + (coal ?)
biomass + CCS
Petrochemical + CCS
Insulation & efficiency
Traded sector ? Imports
W
W
WW
Iceland ?
England ?
Europe ?
Norway ?
Denmark ?
Scotland
CCS
CCS
CCS
Demand 2006 165
TW hr / yr
Demand 2009 143
TWhr /yr
Demand 2030
150 – 200 TW hr/yr
F
F
F
I
FF
Oil & gas
CO2-EOR
CO2
Price power, heat
Build rates
Transmission charges
W
W
Close coal & gas genrn ?
Close North Sea extract ?
Industry + CCS ?
Wind + Tide
Forestry
Industry
CCS on fossil

9. 9
Discussion
Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk
Electricity and All-Energy supply
In a world of rapid Climate change
Slow industry and finance change
and unburnable carbon

10. 10Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk

11. 11
Discussion
Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk
Electricity and All-Energy supply
In a world of rapid Climate change
Slow industry and finance change
and unburnable carbon

12. s.haszeldine@ed.ac.uk
BP Energy Outlook 2014
12
= DO
Sustainable
Developing
economies
BRIC, MINT
“ us “
Carbon not planning to decrease

13. 13
Scotland is a hydrocarbon economy
Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk
NOT just electricity
Energy USE
Energy produced and EXPORTED
http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2006/01/19092748/8
Energy Study
2006 TWhr
Wind 2012
15 TWhr
37 TWhr total
Electricity 33 TWhr/yr 2006

14. s.haszeldine@ed.ac.uk 14
www.sccs.org
90% CO2 reduction on site
75% along whole chain
What does
CCS look like ?
expensive
uncertain
FINANCE

15. s.haszeldine@ed.ac.uk Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014 15
Depth 1 - 4 km
Impermeable SEAL
Overlies
Porous RESERVOIR
CO2 storage is a
long way down

16. 16
STATE of CCS – REAL new projects
Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014
Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk
Zero Emission Power
(Europe trade organisation)
12 full sized
projects by 2012
EEPR 1 Billion
x 6 projects
IEA International
Energy Agency
100 projects by 2020
Power AND Industry
= Two (0)
by 2020
= ZERO (1)
= ONE (3)
UK (small, EU edge)
2005, 2007, 2012
CO2 inject 2019£ 1 Bn Prize

17. 17
Does UK Govt WANT CCS ??
Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk
“low cost”
= high nuclear
2050 Calculator Carbon and energy : default example
Ll
llll
n
“carbon and bio ”
= high fossil and
carbon capture

18. 18
Scottish fossil energy extraction
Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk
Conventional Oil + gas 2014 - 2050
CO2 –EOR 2020 – 2035
Shale oil 2020 – 2035
Shale gas 2020 – 2060
Underground coal gas 2020 - 2200

19. 19
Making it happen
Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk
PROBLEM
Tax N Sea ≠ Spend on CCS
SOLUTION
• Divert oil tax to green energy
• Extraction tax, to incentivise
storage of carbon
Oil, coal,
shale
tax
“roads, hospitals
and schools”
Green
clean
2 x CCS
project
now
future ?

20. 20
Avoiding a carbon bubble
1 tonne CO2 out = 1 tonne CO2 in
Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk
More fossil carbon extraction, faster ≠ Mitigation later ….

21. 21
INDUSTRY IN SCOTLAND
Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk
• 2000 – 4,000 DIRECT jobs in
Scottish industry, 250,000 offshore
10,000 in Renewables
• Industry process emissions can not
be displaced – must be captured
• Should h/c resource be left in the
ground ? Very unlikely to change an
EU / UK oil/gas price
• Scotland has lots of oil. And coal,
shale oil, shale gas
• Developing CCS requires synergy –
to build pipes and storage

22. 22
INDUSTRY IN SCOTLAND
Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk
Keeping C intensive industry
– needs CO2 cleanup

23. 23
Creating a low carbon industry zone
Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk

24. 24
Renewables are good
But not large enough – heroic effort possible
Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk

25. 25
All electricity – by fuel
Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk

26. 26
Summary
Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk
• Electricity is a small part of energy. Include HEAT, INDUSTRY
• Is carbon, or money more dominant ?
• Security of supply – renewables PLUS storage, or INFILL
• Economics of transmission charging – Scotland centric
• Mixed generation – windpower on best sites
- balancing carbon extraction  Trees for fuel
- baseload flexible generation – with CCS
-
• Aim beyond 2030 – to 2050, …… 3,100 AD