Presentation by Terry Cannon from the Institute of Development Studies, at the Sustainable Livelihoods Approaches seminar on 26th January 2011, at the Institute of Development Studies, Brighton, UK.

1. SLA conference Terry Cannon, IDS Livelihoods approaches and climate change

3. Climate Trends & Shocks Primary livelihood impacts Secondary Impacts Precipitation regimes Variability Extent Intensity Crop yields, income & subsistence Crop range – shifts in agro-economic zones; Land use changes; Land cover changes; Forest changes Irrigation impacts – changes in amount, extent, seasonality, quality… Food crops and nutrition Food and cash crops and food supply & cash income Impacts on traded crops, livestock, fodder, grazing Human needs Drinking water Conflicts Changes in crop, pasture, income etc have impacts on security, crime, Migration Changes in government revenue and foreign exchange leads to changes in welfare spending, foreign trade, food imports Effects on debt repayments Tourism-related livelihoods National parks and game reserves Coast and island holiday destinations Employment impacts of changes in HEP output Revenue and balance of payments impacts of HEP output Floods Droughts Temperature regimes Variability Extent Extremes of hot and cold Humidity and human range Desiccation Wildfires & set fires Storms Frequency; Precipitation; Wind speed extremes; Extend Tropical Cyclone range Crop yields, income & subsistence; Loss of employment; Loss of home, tools, livestock Landslides etc. GLOBs (Glacial Lake Outbursts) Crop yields, income & subsistence; Loss of employment, home, tools, livestock Sea Level rise: Floods; Saline intrusion Crop yields income & subsistence; Loss of employment; Diseases & pests Extent & range of vectors & infectious agents; Seasonal variability; Intensity; Human diseases: infectious, parasitic; Crop and post-harvest – pests; infectious viral and bacterial, fungal; Livestock diseases: infectious, parasitic; Forest diseases & pests; Possible impacts on new diseases; Different sources of food for survival

7. Hierarchies of influence… 2006 US$ millions GNP of USA 13,000,000 Foreign Direct Investment 1,200,000 Official Development Assistance 104,421 EU Common Agricultural Policy farm subsidies 53,000 USA spending on pets 34,000 Oxfam International 640 Banking and credit crises.. ????? US costs of wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, “on terror”, per annum 80,000

9. At Risk “Access model” See Chapter 3 in At Risk: natural hazards, people’s vulnerability and disasters Chapters 1-3 free to download at: http://www.unisdr.org/eng/library/Literature/7235.pdf Basically, a household political ecology model. Next slide: Before (left side) and After (right side) hazard impact Based on the interaction of the hazard environment with the vulnerability of people and livelihood. This can be adapted for a climate change analysis of livelihoods

10. “ Access” model – household political ecology From Ch.3 of At Risk, 2 nd edition, Wisner et al, 2004