2nd Annual Malthus Lecture "Feeding the World Sustainably: Reflections, Issues, and Suggestions" given by Dr. Ismail Serageldin at IFPRI on 14 July 2011. Co-hosted by IFPRI and PRB (Population Reference Bureau). Sponsored by Montague Yudelman.
1. Feeding the World Sustainably: Reflections, Issues, and Suggestions Ismail Serageldin 2nd Malthus Lecture IFPRI – Washington, DC 14 July 2011
2. Outline Challenging Malthus On Hunger On Hunger And Poverty Food Security The Gender Dimension The Environmental Dimension The Role Of science The Power Of Policy Transforming Global Agriculture Envoi
4. Challenging Malthus Malthus was wrong He could never have imagined a world with 6.7 billion people Human ingenuity was able to provide more food out of the same resources Hunger and famine persist for other reasons
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6. In USA Today: 20 % Of Children and 65% Of Adults Are Obese
16. So far, we could abolish hunger…But… Things can change…
17. World Population, in Billions 1950-2050 Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, The 2008 Revision.
18. Malthus Strikes Back! Malthus was wrong up to now What about a world of 10 Billion, with richer diets and increasing animal proteins? What about our energy policies and climate change?
27. Global Hunger Index, 2010 Three equally weighted indicators constitute the GHI: Undernourishedas % of the population (reflecting the share of the population with insufficient dietary energy intake) Underweight as % of Children < 5 years old (indicating the proportion of children suffering from low weight for their age) Mortality rate of Children < 5 years old(partially reflecting the fatal synergy between inadequate dietary intake and unhealthy environments)
28. Global Hunger Index, 2010 > 5.0 Low hunger 5.0 - 9.9 Moderate hunger 10.0 - 19.9 Serious 20.0 - 29.9 Alarming ≥ 30.0 Extremely alarming The index ranks countries on a 100-point scale, with 0 being the best score (no hunger) and 100 being the worst, although neither of these extremes is reached in practice.
44. Observation: Many rural poor continue to pay for their food needs Sellers Self-Sufficient Buyers Source: cited in http://www.ifad.org/rural/rpr2010/background/9.pdf
45. So we have to reduce the price f food, by increasing production sustainably, reducing waste, and ensuring access
46. What about the poor small-holder farmers who are major producers of food? They will become even poorer…
47. Raise productivity for small-holder farmers faster than the prices drop Rice production Rice price Source: Production: FAOSTAT Electronic Database, FAO.10June2003 Rice Price: Relate to Thai rice 5%-broken deflated by G-5 MUV Index deflator (adjusted based on 2002 data update) Source: World Bank Quarterly Review of Commodity Markets Trends in world rice production and price adjusted for inflation, 1961-2002
48. Raiseproductivity of small-holderfarmersfasterthan the price of food drops Rice production Rice price Source: Production: FAOSTAT Electronic Database, FAO.10June2003 Rice Price: Relate to Thai rice 5%-broken deflated by G-5 MUV Index deflator (adjusted based on 2002 data update) Source: World Bank Quarterly Review of Commodity Markets World rice production and pricesadjusted for inflation, 1961-2002
49. Food security is to ensure for each individual, at all times, access to the food they need in enough quantity and quality, produced in a sustainable manner.
74. Three Key strategies to cope with Urban Poverty and Hunger Reduce the price of food Increase the opportunities for employment of the poor Increase the returns to the kind of skills and assets that the poor have
76. And food is a major part of their budget – Hence their wellbeing is very sensitive to the price of food
77. Three Key strategies to cope with Urban Poverty and Hunger Reduce the price of food Increase the opportunities for employment of the poor Increase the returns to the kind of skills and assets that the poor have
78. The poor lack the skills for the high Tech jobs the market offers, and are unlikely to get these skills quickly
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80. Three Key strategies to cope with Urban Poverty and Hunger Reduce the price of food Increase the opportunities for employment of the poor Increase the returns to the kind of skills and assets that the poor have
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82. Three Key strategies to cope with Urban Poverty and Hunger Reduce the price of food Increase the opportunities for employment of the poor Increase the returns to the kind of skills and assets that the poor have
87. Reform Policies And Markets Remove urban bias Roads Education Health Etc. Improve access to markets Reduce post harvest losses
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89. Challenges Facing Small Farms Globalization, including super-markets even in poor countries. Low world market prices for agriculture. Climate change. HIV/AIDS Continuing population growth that is making small farms smaller. No political voice.
90. Challenges Facing Small Farms Globalization, including super-markets even in poor countries. Low world market prices for agriculture. Climate change. HIV/AIDS Continuing population growth that is making small farms smaller. No political voice.
91. Challenges Facing Small Farms Globalization, including super-markets even in poor countries. Low world market prices for agriculture. Climate change. HIV/AIDS Continuing population growth that is making small farms smaller. No political voice.
92. Challenges Facing Small Farms Globalization, including super-markets even in poor countries. Low world market prices for agriculture. Climate change. HIV/AIDS Continuing population growth that is making small farms smaller. No political voice.
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94. Challenges Facing Small Farms Globalization, including super-markets even in poor countries. Low world market prices for agriculture. Climate change. HIV/AIDS Continuing population growth that is making small farms smaller. No political voice.
95. Challenges Facing Small Farms Globalization, including super-markets even in poor countries. Low world market prices for agriculture. Climate change. HIV/AIDS Continuing population growth that is making small farms smaller. No political voice.
96. Challenges Facing Small Farms Globalization, including super-markets even in poor countries. Low world market prices for agriculture. Climate change. HIV/AIDS Continuing population growth that is making small farms smaller. No political voice.
98. Food security is to ensure for each individual, at all times, access to the food they need in enough quantity and quality, produced in a sustainable manner.
99. Food Security Not Just production, also access Not Just output, also process Not Just technology, also policy Not Just global, also national Not Just national, also household Not Just rural, also urban Not Just amount, also content
100. Food Security Not Just production, also access Not Just output, also process Not Just technology, also policy Not Just global, also national Not Just national, also household Not Just rural, also urban Not Just amount, also content
101. Food Security Not Just production, also access Not Just output, also process Not Just technology, also policy Not Just global, also national Not Just national, also household Not Just rural, also urban Not Just amount, also content
102. Food Security Not Just production, also access Not Just output, also process Not Just technology, also policy Not Just global, also national Not Just national, also household Not Just rural, also urban Not Just amount, also content
103. Food Security Not Just production, also access Not Just output, also process Not Just technology, also policy Not Just global, also national Not Just national, also household Not Just rural, also urban Not Just amount, also content
104. Food Security Not Just production, also access Not Just output, also process Not Just technology, also policy Not Just global, also national Not Just national, also household Not Just rural, also urban Not Just amount, also content
105. Food Security Not Just production, also access Not Just output, also process Not Just technology, also policy Not Just global, also national Not Just national, also household Not Just rural, also urban Not Just amount, also content
106. Food Security Not Just production, also access Not Just output, also process Not Just technology, also policy Not Just global, also national Not Just national, also household Not Just rural, also urban Not Just amount, also content
109. Global Food ProductionMust Grow by+40% by 2030&+70% by 2050 Opening statement by IFAD President at the Jeddah Economic Forum 2010: “The Global Economy in 2020” http://www.ifad.org/events/op/2010/jeddah.htm
110. Food Security and Production Production is a necessary but not sufficient condition for food security Focusing on the small-holder farmer in developing countries is key to environmental protection, poverty reduction and food security
111. “We are all on this earth as guests of the green plants and those who tend them.”-- M.S. Swaminathan
119. Food Security: Seven Statements Increase production and productivity Better management Reduce losses, reduce waste Manage vulnerability (CC) BioFortification BioFuels International Trade
120. Food Security: Seven Statements Increase production and productivity Better management Reduce losses, reduce waste Manage vulnerability (CC) BioFortification BioFuels International Trade
121. How to reduce prices without harming the poor farmers who produce food?
122. Raiseproductivity of small-holderfarmersfasterthan the price of food drops Rice production Rice price Source: Production: FAOSTAT Electronic Database, FAO.10June2003 Rice Price: Relate to Thai rice 5%-broken deflated by G-5 MUV Index deflator (adjusted based on 2002 data update) Source: World Bank Quarterly Review of Commodity Markets World rice production and pricesadjusted for inflation, 1961-2002
123. Food Security: Seven Statements Increase production and productivity Better management Reduce losses, reduce waste Manage vulnerability (CC) BioFortification BioFuels International Trade
137. Address Short-term Vulnerability Most farmers live precariously Downside is devastating Climate change is increasing vulnerability
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139. Climate Variability (Change?)Index of Rainfall in Sahel 1941-1990 Source: Departure from standard deviation; Climate Prediction Center 1991, Prrsentation by South Africa at Camdessus Panel meetings
140. Climate Variability (Change?)Index of Rainfall in Sahel 1941-1990 Source: Departure from standard deviation; Climate Prediction Center 1991, Prrsentation by South Africa at Camdessus Panel meetings
154. Cows Vs. People A typical cow in the European Union receives a government subsidy of $2.20 a day – more than what 2.5 billion of the world's poorest people live on every day. Twice what 1.2 billion of the world's poorest people live on every day.
159. And We Must Never Forget the Gender Dimension…
160. Women In Africa Produce 80% of the food Receive 10% of the wages Own 1% of the land
161. Women Empowerment Essential to recognize the gender dimension of agriculture Empowering Women results in major improvements in infant mortality, school enrolments, child morbidity
162. Women Empowerment Women have unequal opportunity in: Education Health care Income Credit Employment Assets Decision-making
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164. The key vector to fight infant mortality and child malnutrition is Maternal Health
189. Climate Change and Food Security:Changes in Length of growing period 2000-2005 Thronton, et.al., cited in Greg Mock and Paul Steele, “Power to the poor: tapping the wealth of ecosystems”, in Environment, vol 48: 1; Jan/Feb 2006, p. 15
207. From the Green Revolution to the Doubly Green Revolution
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209. AREA SAVED India -- All Cereals,1960-1990 Millions of Hectares 250 200 150 AREA SAVED 100 AREA USED 50 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Total production: 1961: 87million tons -- 1990 :197 million tons
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214. Doubly green revolution More genetically diverse crops Less chemical inputs (IPM and other means) Integrated soil, water and nutrient management Small holder farming system context, environmentally and socio-economically
237. The Role Of Science Land Water Plants Animals The Role Of Aquatic Resources
238. Three Themes in Rice Researchfor Increased Production Yield (t/ha) Ceiling Current Source: Gurdev Khush, Lecture at BioVision Lyon 2005
239. Three Themes in Rice Researchfor Increased Production Yield (t/ha) Ceiling Current A Raise the Yield Ceiling Source: Gurdev Khush, Lecture at BioVision Lyon 2005
240. Three Themes in Rice Researchfor Increased Production Yield (t/ha) Ceiling Current A Raise the Yield Ceiling Source: Gurdev Khush, Lecture at BioVision Lyon 2005
241. Three Themes in Rice Researchfor Increased Production Yield (t/ha) Ceiling Current A B Raise the Yield Ceiling Close the Yield Gap Source: Gurdev Khush, Lecture at BioVision Lyon 2005
242. Three Themes in Rice Researchfor Increased Production Yield (t/ha) Ceiling Current A B Raise the Yield Ceiling Close the Yield Gap Source: Gurdev Khush, Lecture at BioVision Lyon 2005
243. Three Themes in Rice Researchfor Increased Production Yield (t/ha) Ceiling Current A B C Raise the Yield Ceiling Close the Yield Gap Sustain the Current Yield Source: Gurdev Khush, Lecture at BioVision Lyon 2005
244. Three Themes in Rice Researchfor Increased Production Yield (t/ha) Ceiling Current A B C Raise the Yield Ceiling Close the Yield Gap Sustain the Current Yield Source: Gurdev Khush, Lecture at BioVision Lyon 2005
255. 4. Raise Agricultural Productivity Productivity must rise faster than price declines to generate surpluses for the small-holder farmers and reduce their poverty as their cheaper products help reduce the poverty in the cities Measure in terms of Total Factor Productivity (land, water, labor, energy and chemical inputs)
256. Technologies Needed For: increasing the yield potential closing the yield gap, including pest management Soil, water & nutrient management Labor & capital input management developing nutritious crops (more later)
257. The Role Of Science Land Water Plants Animals The Role Of Aquatic Resources
273. The Role Of Science Land Water Plants Animals The Role Of Aquatic Resources
274. The Role Of Science But What about Biotechnology ?
275. Biotechnology Promise and perils Partnerships for benign applications Public-private CGIAR-NARS-AROs-NGOs
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278. Global Area of Biotech Crops.Million of Hectares (1996 to 2009) 200 180 Trait Hectares 160 Total Hectares 140 Industrials Developing 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1996 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 14 million farmers in 25 countries planted 134 million hectares (330 million acres in 2009, a sustained increase of 7% or 9 million hectares (22 million acres) compared to 2008. Source: Clive James, 2009.
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280. Modern biotechnology Raises profound issues Despite controversy, has enormous promise Can do things we cannot do by conventional breeding – e.g. Vitamin A rice
281. It is a tool, like any other.It should not be demonized nor assumed to be a miracle.
286. Life Expectancy versus Per Capita GNP Best Fit Relation by Decade 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 1987 1980 1970 1961 1950 Life Expectancy (Thousands) Per Capita GNP (1980 US$)
287. Life Expectancy versus Per Capita GNP Best Fit Relation by Decade 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 1987 1980 1970 1961 1950 Life Expectancy (Thousands) Per Capita GNP (1980 US$)
288. Life Expectancy versus Per Capita GNP Best Fit Relation by Decade 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 1987 1980 1970 1961 1950 Life Expectancy (Thousands) Per Capita GNP (1980 US$)
289. Life Expectancy versus Per Capita GNP Best Fit Relation by Decade 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 1987 1980 1970 1961 1950 Life Expectancy (Thousands) Per Capita GNP (1980 US$)
290. 8X!!! That is to say that well conceived, well targeted policies can be the equivalent of a general increase in average incomes by 8X with laissez-faire
292. Agriculture Is A Complex FieldSummary for Decision Makers of the Global Report, IAASTD, 2009 Source: http://www.agassessment.org/docs/IAASTD_GLOBAL_SDM_JAN_2008.pdf
293. Managing Agriculture is a complex task:Summary for Decision Makers of the Global Report, IAASTD, 2009
295. The Ten Commandments For Transforming Global Agriculture Reform Policies And Markets Focus On Small-holder Farmers Husband Natural Resources Raise Agricultural Productivity Improve Nutritional Content Address Short-term Vulnerability Empower Women Reach Out To The Ultra-poor Support Science Translate Rhetoric Into Action
296. The Ten Commandments For Transforming Global Agriculture Reform Policies And Markets Focus On Small-holder Farmers Husband Natural Resources Raise Agricultural Productivity Improve Nutritional Content Address Short-term Vulnerability Empower Women Reach Out To The Ultra-poor Support Science Translate Rhetoric Into Action
297. 1. Reform Policies And Markets Globally: Fair trade Locally: Remove urban bias Improve access to markets reduce post harvest losses
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299. 1. Reform Policies And Markets Globally: Fair trade Locally: Remove urban bias (educ., health, etc.) Improve access to markets reduce post harvest losses
300. The Ten Commandments For Transforming Global Agriculture Reform Policies And Markets Focus On Small-holder Farmers Husband Natural Resources Raise Agricultural Productivity Improve Nutritional Content Address Short-term Vulnerability Empower Women Reach Out To The Ultra-poor Support Science Translate Rhetoric Into Action
301. So, dealing with global poverty requires that we address rural poverty…ANDA special focus on small-holder farmers in developing countries in particular to address the problem of food security
302. The Ten Commandments For Transforming Global Agriculture Reform Policies And Markets Focus On Small-holder Farmers Husband Natural Resources Raise Agricultural Productivity Improve Nutritional Content Address Short-term Vulnerability Empower Women Reach Out To The Ultra-poor Support Science Translate Rhetoric Into Action
303. 3. Husband Natural Resources Agriculture is the major interface between people and nature Sustainable development is beneficial for all Resource degradation hits the poor worst
304. The Most Important Environmental Action Is to Reduce the Need for More Land Under Cultivation
307. The Ten Commandments For Transforming Global Agriculture Reform Policies And Markets Focus On Small-holder Farmers Husband Natural Resources Raise Agricultural Productivity Improve Nutritional Content Address Short-term Vulnerability Empower Women Reach Out To The Ultra-poor Support Science Translate Rhetoric Into Action
308. 4. Raise Agricultural Productivity Productivity must rise faster than price declines to generate surpluses for the small-holder farmers and reduce their poverty as their cheaper products help reduce the poverty in the cities Measure in terms of Total Factor Productivity (land, water, labor, energy and chemical inputs)
309. Raiseproductivity of small-holderfarmersfasterthan the price of food drops Rice production Rice price Source: Production: FAOSTAT Electronic Database, FAO.10June2003 Rice Price: Relate to Thai rice 5%-broken deflated by G-5 MUV Index deflator (adjusted based on 2002 data update) Source: World Bank Quarterly Review of Commodity Markets World rice production and pricesadjusted for inflation, 1961-2002
310. Less Water Less Land Less Labor Less Chemicals Increasing Population Future Challenges To Produce More Food
311. The Ten Commandments For Transforming Global Agriculture Reform Policies And Markets Focus On Small-holder Farmers Husband Natural Resources Raise Agricultural Productivity Improve Nutritional Content Address Short-term Vulnerability Empower Women Reach Out To The Ultra-poor Support Science Translate Rhetoric Into Action
312. 5. Improve Nutritional Content Enormous health benefits Bio-fortification is just the beginning Edible vaccines?
316. The Ten Commandments For Transforming Global Agriculture Reform Policies And Markets Focus On Small-holder Farmers Husband Natural Resources Raise Agricultural Productivity Improve Nutritional Content Address Short-term Vulnerability Empower Women Reach Out To The Ultra-poor Support Science Translate Rhetoric Into Action
317. 6. Address Short-term Vulnerability Most farmers live precariously Downside is devastating Climate change is increasing vulnerability
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320. The Ten Commandments For Transforming Global Agriculture Reform Policies And Markets Focus On Small-holder Farmers Husband Natural Resources Raise Agricultural Productivity Improve Nutritional Content Address Short-term Vulnerability Empower Women Reach Out To The Ultra-poor Support Science Translate Rhetoric Into Action
321. 7. Empower Women Essential to recognize the gender dimension of agriculture Empowering Women results in major improvements in infant mortality, school enrolments, child morbidity
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325. The Ten Commandments For Transforming Global Agriculture Reform Policies And Markets Focus On Small-holder Farmers Husband Natural Resources Raise Agricultural Productivity Improve Nutritional Content Address Short-term Vulnerability Empower Women Reach Out To The Ultra-poor Support Science Translate Rhetoric Into Action
326. 8. Reach Out To The Ultra-Poor Market incentives do not work for the ultra-poor Trickle-down does not work Special Programs will be needed
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329. The Ten Commandments For Transforming Global Agriculture Reform Policies And Markets Focus On Small-holder Farmers Husband Natural Resources Raise Agricultural Productivity Improve Nutritional Content Address Short-term Vulnerability Empower Women Reach Out To The Ultra-poor Support Science Translate Rhetoric Into Action
330. 9. Support Science We need more support for science in developing countries Not just technology
336. The Ten Commandments For Transforming Global Agriculture Reform Policies And Markets Focus On Small-holder Farmers Husband Natural Resources Raise Agricultural Productivity Improve Nutritional Content Address Short-term Vulnerability Empower Women Reach Out To The Ultra-poor Support Science Translate Rhetoric Into Action
338. “We have the capacity to eliminate hunger from the face of the earth in our lifetime. We need only the will.” President John F. Kennedy World Food Congress 1963
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340. The Ten Commandments For Transforming Global Agriculture Reform Policies And Markets Focus On Small-holder Farmers Husband Natural Resources Raise Agricultural Productivity Improve Nutritional Content Address Short-term Vulnerability Empower Women Reach Out To The Ultra-poor Support Science Translate Rhetoric Into Action
344. Diagnosis How to find the key pressure points in the system How to choose interventions that will have maximum impact on these Must focus on raising productivity in the complex ecosystem of the small holder farm Must bring science and other inputs to the farmers
345. No policy or program willeverbesufficientaloneWeneed a range of interventions… Many existing policies need to be adjusted and many new programs need to be developed.
346. Several policies and programs need to be developed for: Agriculture Environment Social Issues Political Issues Participation Gender Urbanization Poverty Infrastructure Economy Trade Marketing Public/Private Interface Finance and credit Local, National, Régional and International Issues And more …
359. The images used in this presentation are strictly for the educational purpose of this lecture. Any use by anyone for any other purpose should be after consulting the copyright owners of these pictures