Perspectives on the Future of Food Security, Review 1 by Geraldo Martha, EMBRAPA on 11 April 2013 at the Food Security Futures I Conference in Dublin, Ireland.

1. Food Security Futures: some comments from
a Brazilian perspective
Geraldo B. Martha Jr.
Food Security Futures Conference, CGIAR-FAO, Dublin, Ireland, 10-11 April

2. Agricultural Productivity
Scenarios and Links to
Climate Change Models

3. Technology adoption vs. price effects
Food Price Index Meat Price Index
Dairy Price Index
Oils Price Index
Cereals Price Index
Sugar Price Index Technology adoption versus
Annual real food price (2002-2004=100)
350,0
relative prices;
300,0
250,0 Relative prices versus land-
200,0 competition;
150,0
Relative prices versus food supply,
100,0
price volatility and (exploitable)
50,0
yield gaps;
0,0
90
91
92
93
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
94
04
20
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
19
20
FAO (2011)
G.B.Martha, work in progress, data from IBGE.

4. Technology adoption vs. price effects
IBGE database, Martha, Jr. (2012).

5. Agriculture production potential in Brazil
2010 avg. Top Producers Research
12.000
10.000
8.000
Yield (kg/ha)
6.000
4.000
2.000
0
Rice Beans Corn Soybean Wheat
2010, avg. Top Producers Research
350,00
Crop-land area 300,00
Increase
constant, 2010 250,00
Million tons
values 200,00 Top prod.: 36%
150,00
100,00
Research: 134%
50,00
0,00
R+B+C+S+W
Martha Jr. (2012).

6. Technology adoption vs. novel systems effects

7. Technology adoption vs. Climate Change effects
0-10 cm 0-30 0-50 cm
Sousa et al., 1996.

8. Technology adoption vs. land-saving effects
Stocking rate LWG Productivity Land-saving effect
hd/ha (kg/hd) (kg PV/ha/yr) (ha spared/ha recovered)
0,4 100 40 -
0,7 120 84 1,1
1,1 135 149 2,7
1,6 160 256 5,4
G.B.Martha Jr. (work in progress).

9. Metrics, Prices, and Short vs. Long-term Trends
MCT (2010).
Economist (2012 and 2013).

10. Embrapa's R&D Efforts

11. Agricultural R&D investiments - the case of
Brazilian Embrapa
Around 90% of the ag. research effort in
Brazil is public;
From 50% to 60% of Brazilian public
investment in agricultural R&D goes to
Embrapa;
Martha Jr. & Lopes (2013), data from IBGE and Embrapa.

12. Agricultural Development
in a More Broad Context

13. Issues for Large-Scale Adoption of Low-
Carbon Agricultural Technologies
1) Considering specific regional characteristics and resource endowments and
possibilities to foster an inclusive low-carbon emission agriculture strategy:
a) What is the cost of this new technology and its economic return / cash flow in
comparison with technologies that are already in use in farms?
b) What is the new technology’s opportunity cost considering other eligible
agricultural activities in the region? How robust is the new technology’s comparative
economic performance considering a range of relative prices and terms of trade?
c) If this new technology is well implemented in farms, what is the potential to
generate strong backward and forward linkages and thus foster virtuous cycles of
development in rural areas?
Martha Jr. & Vilela (2013).

14. Issues for Large-Scale Adoption of Low-
Carbon Agricultural Technologies
1) Considering specific regional characteristics and resource endowments and
possibilities to foster an inclusive low-carbon emission agriculture strategy:
d) What are the major changes required in infrastructure and supply chain
arrangements relative to a business as usual scenario (and their associated
timeline)?
e) How dependent on (distorting vs. non-distorting) incentives is such strategy and
for how long?
2) What is needed to better integrate poor farmers to the value of chain and to
increase their competitiveness in a low-carbon emission agriculture era? What
are the implications for their well-being and for the rural-to-urban migration
process?
Martha Jr. & Vilela (2013).

15. Issues for Large-Scale Adoption of Low-
Carbon Agricultural Technologies
3) How do distortions to agricultural prices ultimately affect the adoption of
low-carbon emission technologies in the agricultural sector in developed,
developing and poor countries or in different regions inside a given country?
4) How can a widespread adoption of low carbon emission technologies in
agriculture eventually affect the volatility of food supply and prices, and what
are their regional welfare impacts? How factors of production in the economy
will adjust to such a stimulus?
Martha Jr. & Vilela (2013).

16. Embrapa's Strategic Intelligence System
"Targeting possible futures, their challenges, solutions and
opportunities for the technological development of
Brazilian Agriculture"

17. Thank You !
The solely form of forecasting the future
is to build it (Antonio Delfim Netto, May 2012)