Food insecurity is both a consequence and cause of conflict. Improving food security can help reduce conflict risk. Droughts increase civil conflict risk in Somalia by depressing livestock prices and incomes. Climate adaptation is key to prevent future conflict. Mapping tools can help plan projects to boost resilience to food insecurity, conflict, and climate challenges.

1. Food security and conflict
Presenters:
Clemens Breisinger and Jean-Francois Maystadt
Partnering for Impact
IFPRI-European Research Collaboration for Improved Food and Nutrition Security
November 25, 2013. The Thon Hotel EU, Rue de la Loi 75, Brussels, Belgium
Financial support for this research is provided by the CGIAR-PIM, EU, GIZ, and IFAD

2. Food insecurity is a consequence of conflict
The economic and social costs of conflict are high
More than 1.5 billion people live in fragile and conflictaffected countries and many of them are poor/food
insecure (World Bank 2011)
For each year of conflict, economic growth may fall by
2.3 percent and that it may take a total of 17 years
before the country catches up with its preconflict
position (Collier, 2007)
Conflict has a severe impacts on human
health, education, and nutrition (Chamarbagwala and
Moran, 2011; Akresh and de Walque, 2008; Shemyakina, 2011)

3. Example: conflict in Yemen, 2011
$US 5-11 bill. are needed for supporting
post-conflict transition
 IFPRI with support of EU analyzed conflict
impacts and scenarios for transition
 Strong association between food insecurity
and conflict in Yemen
 The conflict led to an estimated 12 percentage
point increase in food insecurity
Transition scenarios: Prevalence of calorie deficiency (%)
40
35
30
25
Slow transition
Accelerated transition
Stagnation
Baseline (no uprising)
2015
Source: Breisinger et al. 2012. http://www.ifpri.org/publication/managing-transition-yemen -

4. Food insecurity is also a cause of conflict
Particularly in food import dependent countries with a large share of net
food consumers, such as the Arab world, are highly vulnerable
 Well known causes of conflict are:
poverty, underemployment;
inequalities and poor governance
(Collier and Hoeffler, 2004;
Fearon, 2010, Macours, 2011)
 Food insecurity (Brinkman and
Hendrix, 2011; Pinstrup-Andersen and
Shimokowa, 2008; Arezki and
Brückner, 2011, Bellemare 2011, Berazneva and Lee
2013)
 Food insecurity at national and
household levels are the key
cause of conflict in the Arab
world (Maystadt et al. 2012;)
Source: Maystadt et al. 2012: http://www.ifpri.org/publication/doesfood-security-matter-transition-arab-countries

5. Improving food security
can reduce the risk of conflict
Example:
EC-IFPRI collaboration on
National Food Security Strategy for Yemen

6. 7-Point Action Plan for Yemen
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Leverage the petroleum subsidy reform to promote food security through direct
transfers and investments
Improve the business climate to foster pro-food secure private investments in
promising sectors
Combine qat reduction policies with support for non-qat agricultural
development
Improve risk management and enforce competition among cereal importers and
consider physical grain storage for emergencies
Implement the water sector strategy decisively
Better target public investment to the food insecure and improve service
provision, especially in rural areas
Launch high-level awareness campaigns for family planning, healthy
nutrition, women’s empowerment and qat
Source: http://www.ifpri.org/publication/does-food-security-matter-transition-arab-countries
6

7. Food insecurity and conflict in Somalia
Vicious cycle of violence?
Violence in Somalia, 1997-2009
Source: Maystadt et al. (2013), based on ACLED (2012).
Estimated food security conditions, 9/2011
Source: DFID(2012).

8. What is the role of droughts for conflict?
Vicious cycle in Somalia
Source: Maystadt, Ecker and Mabiso (2013) Extreme weather and civil war in Somalia: Does Drought Fuel Conflict through
Livestock Price Shocks . IFPRI Discussion Paper (R&R AJAE).

9. Drought and Violence in Somalia
Quotes from practitioners
“with the frequency of droughts increasing over the last decade, it’s become
increasingly difficult for people to recover from one shock before one strikes.
Such shocks drive conflict over land and water, disrupt economic activity and
leave young people vulnerable to unemployment and recruitment into
extremist groups, like Al-Shabaab”, Paul Weisenfeld (USAID)
“This [the drought] has been a boon for Al-Shabab’s recruitment campaign
because when you don’t have purchasing power to buy the food, you will be
encouraged to be recruited because then you will be saved, and you can use
that salary or you could be given food”,
Bruno Geddo (UNHCR Somalia Representative)

10. Theoretical framework
Drought => Livestock Prices fall => Poverty => Conflict?
• Drought likely to translate into sharp decrease in livestock prices:
• Prices, largely supply driven (with the exception of major demand
shocks outside of Somalia)
• Oversupply of thin animals, due to drought-related reduction in
water and livestock feeding resources
• Liquidating process to smooth consumption over time follows a
particular order : from more to less liquid assets (small to less liquid
livestocks)
• Selling productive assets, particularly livestock, is often the only
remaining – but largely inefficient – strategy to smoothen
consumption
• Downward price movement amplified by information asymmetry in
favor of intermediary traders
Source: Maystadt, Ecker and Mabiso (2013) Extreme weather and civil war in Somalia: Does Drought Fuel Conflict
through Livestock Price Shocks . IFPRI Discussion Paper (R&R AJAE).

11. Regression analysis confirms:
Droughts fuel civil conflicts in Somalia
• Method : FE 2SLS with corrected standard errors (Conley 1999)
• Intuition : Estimate the drought-price-conflict using monthly variations
within each region between 1997 and 2009
• Droughts fuel civil conflicts in Somalia (71% due to one SD)
• Specific channel: drought-induced economic shocks on the livestock
sector and resulting income changes
Source: Maystadt, , Ecker and Mabiso (2013) Extreme weather and civil war in Somalia: Does Drought Fuel
Conflict through Livestock Price Shocks. IFPRI Discussion Paper (R&R in AJAE).

12. Droughts are a security threat for the future
Method: Predicted changes in conflict by 2030, based on
IPCC climate models (20 models*3 scenarios) and estimated
responses to drought
Source: Maystadt, , Ecker and Mabiso (2013) Extreme weather and civil war in Somalia: Does Drought Fuel
Conflict through Livestock Price Shocks. IFPRI Discussion Paper (R&R in AJAE).

13. Enhancing resilience through a balanced
food security and development strategy
 Climate change adaptation and food security strategies contribute to
conflict prevention
 Building resilience through establishing effective coping mechanisms
and generating and diversifying income earning opportunities is critical
for both conflict prevention and climate change adaptation.
 Investment in pastoralist activities:
 Improved livestock resilience to drought: adoption of droughtresistant animals, veterinary health services, emergency feed, and
better access to water but without disturbing the (well-functing)
livestock value chain
 Help de-stocking and re-stocking through improved access to
markets, insurance and credit markets, weather insurance schemes
 Support income diversification: Irrigation, Migration and Education
Source: Headey, L. You, and A.S. Taffesse (2012) Enhancing resilience in the Horn of Africa. IFPRI DP. Forthcoming
in World Development

14. Planning food security interventions
for improved resilience
Towards an innovative M&E mapping approach

15. IFAD projects and conflict
IFAD operates in several heavily conflict affected areas

16. IFAD projects and climate variability
Climate variability is high at many IFAD project sites

17. IFAD projects and child malnutrition
IFAD operates in many governorates that show high levels of
child malnutrition

18. Take a closer look at your project sites
Example IFAD Egypt

19. Key messages
Food insecurity is both a consequence and a cause for
conflict – thus improving food security can reduce the
risk of conflict
Droughts increase the risk of local civil conflict.
Hence, climate change adaptation measures are critical
for preventing conflicts
Innovative mapping tools can help governments and
development agencies to plan, monitor and evaluate
their food security projects for enhanced resilience