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THE NATURE OF THE
FUTURE
the socialstructed world
Marina Gorbis
Executive Director
mgorbis@iftf.org
@mgorbis
© 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613
Paul Baran, On Distributed Communications,1964
© 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613 3
“
”
When we change the way we communicate,
we change society
—Clay Shirky
”
© 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613 4
two-curve framework
institutional production socialstructed creation
© 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613
SOCIALSTRUCTING:
creating value by aggregating micro
contributions by large networks using social
tools and technologies
© 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613
socialstructed work
6
© 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613
The main reason why it is
profitable to establish a firm is
to lower transaction costs
–Ronald Coase,
The Nature of The Firm,1937
© 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613
institutions are a technology
and this technology is being disrupted
© 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613
© 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613 10
Source:gretcurtisonFlickr/
© 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613
© 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613
amplified individuals doing things that previously only a
large organization could do
socialstructed work
© 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613
socialstructed learning
13
© 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613
Source:travelpod.com
© 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613
© 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613
© 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613
Source:travelpod.com
© 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613
from institutions to learning flows
socialstructed learning
© 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613
socialstructed governance
19
© 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613
Greek Assembly Picture
© 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613
© 2012 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved.
open data:
from institutions to citizens
22
© 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613 23
© 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613
© 2012 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved.
decision support tools:
new human-machine partnership
25
© 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613 26
© 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613 27
© 2012 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved.
engagement platforms:
from rational ignorance to public deliberation
28
© 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613 29
© 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613
© 2012 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved.
microparticipation:
citizen engagement in provision of services
31
© 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613
© 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613
governance beyond government
socialstructed
governance
© 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613
ReConstitutional Convention
April 26-27, 2013
© 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613 35
© 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613
“Transformational products are objects for the good
life that appeal to people’s interest in
growth, flourishing, and self-improvement …”
– Matthias Laschke, Marc Hassenzahl, and Sarah
Diefenbach, Things with Attitude: Transformational Products
© 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613 37
design for the second curve

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The Nature of the Future: The Socialstructed World (Marina Gorbis Keynote)

  • 1. THE NATURE OF THE FUTURE the socialstructed world Marina Gorbis Executive Director mgorbis@iftf.org @mgorbis
  • 2. © 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613 Paul Baran, On Distributed Communications,1964
  • 3. © 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613 3 “ ” When we change the way we communicate, we change society —Clay Shirky ”
  • 4. © 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613 4 two-curve framework institutional production socialstructed creation
  • 5. © 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613 SOCIALSTRUCTING: creating value by aggregating micro contributions by large networks using social tools and technologies
  • 6. © 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613 socialstructed work 6
  • 7. © 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613 The main reason why it is profitable to establish a firm is to lower transaction costs –Ronald Coase, The Nature of The Firm,1937
  • 8. © 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613 institutions are a technology and this technology is being disrupted
  • 9. © 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613
  • 10. © 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613 10 Source:gretcurtisonFlickr/
  • 11. © 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613
  • 12. © 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613 amplified individuals doing things that previously only a large organization could do socialstructed work
  • 13. © 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613 socialstructed learning 13
  • 14. © 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613 Source:travelpod.com
  • 15. © 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613
  • 16. © 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613
  • 17. © 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613 Source:travelpod.com
  • 18. © 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613 from institutions to learning flows socialstructed learning
  • 19. © 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613 socialstructed governance 19
  • 20. © 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613 Greek Assembly Picture
  • 21. © 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613
  • 22. © 2012 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. open data: from institutions to citizens 22
  • 23. © 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613 23
  • 24. © 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613
  • 25. © 2012 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. decision support tools: new human-machine partnership 25
  • 26. © 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613 26
  • 27. © 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613 27
  • 28. © 2012 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. engagement platforms: from rational ignorance to public deliberation 28
  • 29. © 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613 29
  • 30. © 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613
  • 31. © 2012 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. microparticipation: citizen engagement in provision of services 31
  • 32. © 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613
  • 33. © 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613 governance beyond government socialstructed governance
  • 34. © 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613 ReConstitutional Convention April 26-27, 2013
  • 35. © 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613 35
  • 36. © 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613 “Transformational products are objects for the good life that appeal to people’s interest in growth, flourishing, and self-improvement …” – Matthias Laschke, Marc Hassenzahl, and Sarah Diefenbach, Things with Attitude: Transformational Products
  • 37. © 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613 37 design for the second curve

Notes de l'éditeur

  1. And as Clay Shirky points out, “when we change the way we communicate, we change society.”Image SourcesPhilanthropedia: http://www.myphilanthropedia.org/Teachertube: http://www.teachertube.com/farmville: http://www.farmville.com/Twitpay: http://twitpay.com/
  2. <<declining curve>> The declining curve of our incumbent reality <<ascending curve>>And the ascending curve that is still unformed and emerging.  And we have the path from here to there…So this is the map of our territory. It’s not just a map of the decade. It’s a map of the basic contours of the century.  In order to understand the coming decade, we need to look at it in the context of the entire century— —in the context of these two BIG intersecting curves.  This is where I landed about 6 months ago when I was trying to put together all the trends and discontinuities that we’re seeing today… And I suddenly remembered a book 
  3. This raises a fundamental question that applies to most of the organizations in the room- “What if your management approach is really a technology?” and beyond that, “what if it is on the verge of being disrupted?”
  4. Green Watch Source: http://www.designbuzz.com/entry/the-green-watch-keeps-watch-on-paris-pollution/
  5. http://www.marketplace.org/topics/economy/budget-hero
  6. http://www.marketplace.org/topics/economy/budget-hero
  7. Source: http://www.state.gov/opinionspace/
  8. <<declining curve>> The declining curve of our incumbent reality <<ascending curve>>And the ascending curve that is still unformed and emerging.  And we have the path from here to there…So this is the map of our territory. It’s not just a map of the decade. It’s a map of the basic contours of the century.  In order to understand the coming decade, we need to look at it in the context of the entire century— —in the context of these two BIG intersecting curves.  This is where I landed about 6 months ago when I was trying to put together all the trends and discontinuities that we’re seeing today… And I suddenly remembered a book 
  9. <<declining curve>> The declining curve of our incumbent reality <<ascending curve>>And the ascending curve that is still unformed and emerging.  And we have the path from here to there…So this is the map of our territory. It’s not just a map of the decade. It’s a map of the basic contours of the century.  In order to understand the coming decade, we need to look at it in the context of the entire century— —in the context of these two BIG intersecting curves.  This is where I landed about 6 months ago when I was trying to put together all the trends and discontinuities that we’re seeing today… And I suddenly remembered a book