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Welcome to Today’s Webcast
IHS Material Price Outlook:
A 2014 Buyer’s Guide
November 7, 2013
Today’s Speakers
Howard Rappaport
 Senior Director of Chemicals, IHS
Howard Rappaport has over 30 years of experience in the chemicals and
plastics industry. He is a sought after industry speaker, and has been quoted in
various publications and media including: The Wall Street Journal, The New
York Times, The Financial Times, Fortune Magazine, Forbes Magazine,
Bloomberg, National Public Radio, The BBC as well as numerous other
chemical & plastics industry publications.
Prior to joining IHS, Howard held various chemical industry management level
positions in commercial development, business management, product
management, sales/marketing, and customer service. Company affiliations
include American Hoechst > Huntsman Chemical, Cain Chemical > Occidental
Chemical, Himont > Montell Polyolefins, and Westlake Chemical.

Copyright © 2013 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved

www.ihs.com/PricingPurchasing

5
Today’s Speakers
John Mothersole
 Director of Research & Lead Nonferrous Metals Analyst, IHS
Mr. Mothersole is a Principal in the Industry Practices Group, where he is the
nonferrous metals analyst. He also helps supervise the Pricing and Purchasing
Service's price and wage forecasts and the construction cost and operation
and maintenance costs forecasts prepared by the group's Power Planner
Service. He has a graduate degree in economics from the University of
Maryland.

Copyright © 2013 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved

www.ihs.com/PricingPurchasing

6
Today’s Speakers
John Anton
 Principal Economist, Pricing & Purchasing, IHS
Anton is Director of the IHS Steel Service and the ferrous metals industry
analyst for the firm's Cost and Industry Service. In addition to producing regular
forecasts of steel production, demand, and price, he is also responsible for
managing the relationship between IHS and major steel clients, including some
of the largest mills in the United States, Japan, and Europe.
He has an economics degree from Florida State University and a law degree
from the Marshall-Wythe School of Law at the College of William and Mary.
In addition to his work with IHS clients, Mr. Anton regularly provides steel
industry analysis to magazines and dailies such as Purchasing Magazine,
Steel Business Briefing, American Metal Market, Investor’s Business Daily,
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Bloomberg, and Engineering News Record.

Copyright © 2013 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved

www.ihs.com/PricingPurchasing

7
Energy & Chemicals
Fundamentals vs. Fear
November, 2013

Howard Rappaport
Senior Director of Chemicals, IHS
Operational Excellence & Risk Management
Howard.Rappaport@ihs.com

8
Chemicals & Plastics: What to Expect
• Currently a “sellers market” with high and volatile prices
• Demand slowly recovering, but growth is below normal historical rates for

many products
• New capacity is on the way, but not enough to change the short term
market dynamics
• Elevated energy prices (predominantly crude oil) continue to pressure the

cost side (strong producer profits in US, however)
• Recent events tipping the scales on supply / demand
• Price direction will be elevated for most products, but more stable with

downside potential later in 2014
• Keep an eye on the Middle East and the US Gulf Coast (politics, violence

& weather)

Copyright © 2013 IHS Inc.

www.ihs.com/PricingPurchasing

9
Better Fundamentals Drive Oil Prices Lower
• No change to our fourth quarter

Brent Crude Oil Price Outlook

Brent outlook ($108/barrel)

(US dollars per barrel)

• Diplomatic initiatives with Syrian

chemical weapons, issue and Iranian
nuclear program easing “fear
premium” on oil prices.

• Slightly increased Brent price

outlook for 2014 and 2015
• Brent crude oil will average $104 for

2014 and $99 for 2015

• The oil market is now more

vulnerable to another major
outage

140

120

100

80

60

40

• Global spare capacity will be lower

than anticipated in 2014/15
• Libyan and Iraqi production will

continue to disappoint

Copyright © 2013 IHS Inc.

20
2009:1

2010:1

2011:1

2012:1

2013:1

2014:1

2015:1

Source: IHS CERA

www.ihs.com/PricingPurchasing

10
Chemical Industry Building Blocks – Market Dynamics
General Trends
• Capacity expansions being driven by low cost feedstocks &

integration strategies in North America, Asia and the Middle East
• Cost of production is closely tied to the cost of hydrocarbon

feedstock's (ethane from natural gas and naphtha from crude oil). The
Middle East and North America have a natural gas cost advantage
• Higher global crude oil prices put added upward pressure on market

prices in all regions
• North America has had some recent supply issues, but those will

resolve themselves along with new projects coming on line
• Demand growth has been hampered by the slow economic recovery

and the expectation of lower prices in 2014
Copyright © 2013 IHS Inc.

www.ihs.com/PricingPurchasing

11
Chemical Industry Building Blocks – Market Dynamics
Ethylene

• High prices today with record margins for US producers
• Cost of production is closely tied to cost of hydrocarbon

feedstock's (ethane and naphtha)
• North America will enjoy a long term cost advantage

based on natural gas reserves
• North America prepares for a surge in capacity investment
• Asia and Middle East continue to build as planned

• Europe may consolidate higher cost production
Copyright © 2013 IHS Inc.

www.ihs.com/PricingPurchasing

12
Ethylene Prices - Outlook
• Near-term ethylene forecast

slightly higher due to recent
spot activity.
• Costs still remain low relative to

history.
• Low cash costs and fairly stable

spot prices will continue with a
mostly flat forecast through the
end of the year.
• The turnaround schedule in the

first half of 2014 for crackers
could affect spot pricing starting
in January as market players
start pre-building inventories…
Copyright © 2013 IHS Inc.

13

www.ihs.com/PricingPurchasing
Propylene Prices – Outlook
• The propylene forecast for next few months remains slightly

higher but volatile based on supply issues.
• PP supplies are tight and converters are having difficulty

building inventory.
• Chevron Phillips is still on sales allocation due to production

issues.
• Outages of supply expected in the 1H of 2014 boost prices

in the US.
• The average 2014 PG price will be 64 cents. Down 5 cents

from the 2013 average.
Copyright © 2013 IHS Inc.

14

www.ihs.com/PricingPurchasing
More “On Purpose” Production
Will Drive Global Propylene Capacity Growth
On Purpose Propylene Production, Million Metric Tons

35
30
25
20
15

25%

10
45%

5
0
2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

Ex Dehydro - PDH

Metathesis

Olefin Cracking

Via Methanol: CTP

HS FCC

2022

Others On-Purpose

Copyright © 2013 IHS Inc.

15

www.ihs.com/PricingPurchasing
Chemical Industry Building Blocks – Market Dynamics
Benzene
• Supply trends complicated by

ethylene, gasoline, paraxylene
and shifting environmental
regulations

Price (Cents Per Gallon)
$6.00
$5.00
$4.00

• Refinery operations and

renewable fuel trends are critical
to benzene supply
• Growth in demand and capacity

migrating to Asia (where
majority of polystyrene & ABS
growth is)

$3.00

$2.00
$1.00
$0.00
Jan2000

Jan2002

Jan2004

Jan2006

US

Jan2008

Jan2010

Jan2012

Jan2014

Asia

• Elevated prices are expected for

the next 12-18 months

Copyright © 2013 IHS Inc.

16

www.ihs.com/PricingPurchasing
Chemical Industry Building Blocks – Market Dynamics

Butadiene
• On-Purpose production will continue to rise
• Technology related to region and feedstock availability

• Steam cracker and refinery (FCC) supply trends also vary

by region. North America is “supply challenged” near term
• Demand growth trending towards GDP due to emphasis

on more durable goods applications (auto, construction,
appliances, electronics)
• Prices heavily influenced by crude oil trends
Copyright © 2013 IHS Inc.

17

www.ihs.com/PricingPurchasing
Implications For Chemical “Building Block” Buyers
• Ethylene
• Slightly lower prices near term, but higher in early 2014
• Keep an eye on hurricane activity in USGC (season ends 11/30)
• Big investments coming in US capacity longer term = better pricing
• Propylene
• Tight supply in the US near term
• Higher prices in early 2014.
• More “on purpose” production will provide relief
• Benzene
• Closely following oil price trends
• Prices will remain above $4.00 per gallon through 2014

• Butadiene
• Recent high prices coming down early in 2014 as supply improves
• Continuing volatility will plague rubber prices until “on purpose” capacity arrives
Copyright © 2013 IHS Inc.

www.ihs.com/PricingPurchasing

18
Nonferrous Metals
No return of the “Supercycle”
November, 2013

John Mothersole
Director of Research, IHS
Operational Excellence & Risk Management
John.Mothersole@ihs.com

19
Nonferrous Metals: What to Expect
• Collectively, prices look range bound
• Production costs in most cases limit the downside
• Upside is also capped – aluminum, copper, nickel or zinc all look fundamentally

weak or balanced in 2014

• A slow global recovery means consumption growth improves --

modestly
• The acceleration in growth over 2014 will be stronger in the old ‘dull’ industrial

economies

• But there is room for this recovery to grow into
• Capacity is adequate or inventory is high
• Markets generally look well supplied with flat or rising coverage ratios

• Bottom-line: near-term prices look flat at levels well below their

recent 2011 peak
20

© 2013 IHS

www.ihs.com/PricingPurchasing
No return of the “Supercycle” – prices look flat 25%
below their recent peaks
IHS Index of Primary Nonferrous Metal Prices, 94-95=1.0
3.0

2.6

2.2

1.8

1.4

1.0
2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

21

© 2013 IHS

www.ihs.com/PricingPurchasing
Consumption growth improves, but remains modest
Global Metal Consumption Growth
(Combined

Al, Cu, Ni, Pb, Zn, percent change)

12.0%

8.0%

4.0%

0.0%

-4.0%
2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014
22

© 2013 IHS

www.ihs.com/PricingPurchasing
China’s impact on base metal prices
Year over year change
100

20

80

18

60

16

40

14

20

12

0

10

-20

8

-40

6

-60

4
2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

IHS Index of Primary Nonferrous Metals Prices, LHS

2010

2012

2014

Chinese Industrial Production, RHS
23

© 2013 IHS

www.ihs.com/PricingPurchasing
Aluminum
• Market is in surplus with huge inventory overhang
• But prices can’t go lower -- they are already below cost
• The physical market is tighter that it appears by traditional fundamental

measures because most inventory is tied up in ‘financing deals’
• This is what is lifting premiums

• So what happens?
•

The key is interest rates, higher rates will raise carrying costs and make financing deals
unprofitable

•

As financing deals unwind, metal will become available to the physical market, lowering premiums

•

Change in LME warehousing rules this April may also have the same effect

• The result will be cuts in production
•

LME prices will drift higher as the surplus narrows toward balance

•

Actual transaction prices may remain flat as higher LME prices are offset by falling premiums

• LME prices hit $2,171/mt in Q4 2014 – a 17% increase though prices

will not be much different than they were in early 2013
24

© 2013 IHS

www.ihs.com/PricingPurchasing
Copper
• Prices head lower in 2014
•

Copper/Aluminum price ratio: copper still looks rich even
after next year’s correction

Production costs near $5,000/mt underscore
how much downside there potentially is

3.5

• Market is in surplus
•

Visible inventory did fall last month, but the
long anticipated rise in mine production has
arrived. Data to July shows the strongest
gains in more than 10 years

• Demand growth looks healthy, but no

boom
•

•

4.0

3.0
2.5
2.0

Chinese demand is picking up, but not
enough to offset the rise in domestic
production; import growth likely to fall in
2014

1.5

ETF launches are delayed

0.5

• The Bottom Line: market looks well

supplied with prices falling well below
$6,500/mt next year

1.0

0.0

25

© 2013 IHS

www.ihs.com/PricingPurchasing
Nickel: Oversupplied
• Nickel is besieged by a glut of material

that continues to grow

Nickel Inventory, thousands of metric tons

•

Inventories are at record highs with a rising
coverage ratio

•

New production continues to come online

•

New NPI technology lowers the cost floor for
stainless production

•

Rescission of Indonesia ore ban means
material flows uninterrupted in 2014

• Demand is improving but not yet

enough to dig into inventories
•

Stainless steel production will grow about 4% in
2014, enough to allow prices to move out of the
cost curve early next year

• Prices continue to sit in the cost curve –

275
250
225
200
175
150
125
100
75
2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

the only direction to go therefore is up
• Expect a mild recovery in prices with

any uptick in stainless steel production
26

© 2013 IHS

www.ihs.com/PricingPurchasing
Implications for Buyers
• Aluminum
• Prices are unsustainably low
• But another surplus in 2014 and a huge inventory overhang limit the upside
• Watch interest rates – they will signal the beginning of the end for financing deals
and lower premiums
• Changes in LME warehousing rules slated for April may also have the same
effect
• Copper
• Prices are headed lower
• Surplus widens in 2014, with inventory heading higher
• Downside is only limited by production costs, which are well below $6,000/mt
• Nickel
• Like aluminum, prices are unsustainably low
• But also like aluminum, another surplus in 2014 and high inventory limit the
upside
27

© 2013 IHS

www.ihs.com/PricingPurchasing
Steel for 2014 and 2015
Short-term benefit, mid-term danger
November, 2013

John Anton
Director of Steel Service, IHS
Operational Excellence & Risk Management
John.Anton@ihs.com

28
Steel –Sedate for 2014, Increasing risk afterwards
• A buyer’s paradox
• The basic outlook is flat, so no hurry
• But risk creates one-sided bets, so we still think locking
could be wise
• Prices cannot go down much, they easily could go higher

• Prices are essentially flat for most of 2014

• No shortages without a disaster
• Eventually (2015?) the low prices cause mill failures and

higher prices

29

© 2013 IHS

www.ihs.com/PricingPurchasing
Where are the Bargains?
• China

Best

• China is overproducing as mills favor tonnage over profits
• Prices are often $150/metric ton lower than in the U.S., $70 below Europe

• Other Asia
• Low Chinese prices pressure Korea and Japan, who have excellent quality

• Europe
• Prices hover between those in Asia and North America
• Quality is often very high

• North America
• Well above those already mentioned, but delivery is fast and quality is high

• South America
• Protectionism makes South America one of the worst places to buy

Worst

© 2013 IHS

30

www.ihs.com/PricingPurchasing
Hot rolled carbon sheet
(Dollars per metric tonne)
• Demand is strong in NAFTA

1000

and China, soft in Europe
900

• US price consistently higher
800

than others
• Price hike for 13Q4, probably

drops back in early 2014
• Advice: Locking minimizes

risk, but otherwise no reason
to rush

700

600

500

400
2009

2010

2011

United States

2012

2013
Europe

2014

2015

China

31

© 2013 IHS

www.ihs.com/PricingPurchasing
Plate
(Dollars per metric tonne)
• Demand rises significantly in

2014
• Premium over sheet is much
narrower than normal

1200

1000

• Some rebound in 2014 as

premium partially returns

• China is far lower, giving

800

upside room
• Chinese weakness suppresses

Japan and Korea

600

• Advice: try to lock current

levels for 2014, especially
Asian prices

400
2009

2010

2011

United States

2012

2013
Europe

2014

2015

China

32

© 2013 IHS

www.ihs.com/PricingPurchasing
Merchant Bar
(Dollars per metric tonne)
• Demand rises in 2014 in line

1100

with overall manufacturing
1000

• Idle capacity is rampant
• USA prices dropped in 2013

900

to narrow the premium
800

• Still comparatively wide

• Little downside for Europe,

700

effectively none for China
600

• Advice: try to fight North

American price hikes. In other
regions, lock now if cautious,
buy spot if daring.

500
2009

2010

2011

United States

2012

2013
Europe

2014

2015

China

33

© 2013 IHS

www.ihs.com/PricingPurchasing
Concrete Reinforcing Bar (Rebar)
(Dollars per metric tonne)
• Demand rises in 2014

900

• United States
• Middle East/North Africa

800

• China-led Asia

• High amounts of idle capacity
• A premium exists, but not as

wide as for other products
• WARNING: Trade action
coming to the United States
• Higher prices?

700

600

500

• Lower in other markets?

• Advice:

Buy soon. The price is
low, and the logical direction is
upwards.

400
2009

2010

2011

United States

2012

2013
Europe

2014

2015

China

34

© 2013 IHS

www.ihs.com/PricingPurchasing
Special bars (SBQ)
(Dollars per metric ton)
• The buying outlook is finally

1,500

improving
• New capacity is coming online in

North America

1,300

• Huge lead times are shrinking
• Demand is high but effectively near

a plateau

1,100

• Autos, energy are already strong
• Prices fall as allocation fades, but

900

remain elevated
• Some European SBQ mills are in

distress, & may be dragged under
by weakness in other products

700
2009

2010

2011

2012

Special Quality Bar

2013

2014

2015

Merchant Bar

35

© 2013 IHS

www.ihs.com/PricingPurchasing
Stainless
(Dollars per metric ton)
• Input costs (surcharges) will rise

6000

in 2014
• Nickel selling at/below cost

• Stainless mill capacity is high,

5000

utilization is fairly low
• Prices will rise in coming years

4000

• Ni, Cr, other alloy metals increase for

2014 and beyond

• Beware of labor and electricity

3000

problems in South Africa
2000

• Advice: buy ASAP

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
United States

Europe

China

36

© 2013 IHS

www.ihs.com/PricingPurchasing
2014 Buying Advice
• Sheet
• Sit on your wallet until February or March, unless you are offered a

full year at a reasonable prices

• Plate
• Lock in current bargains. 2014 will not explode, but right now there

is opportunity.

• Bar steel – Commodity grades
• Buy soon or sit until 2014Q2. Not extreme, but up.
• Watch out for US protectionism on rebar and wire rod

• Bar steel – Special bar
• Live hand to mouth. Prices should fall sharply in coming months.

• Stainless
• Buy now! This is our most clear cut advice.
37

© 2013 IHS

www.ihs.com/PricingPurchasing
Thank you!

38
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Recommended for all attendees…

Subscribe to Weekly Pricing Pulse Newsletter…

How to Subscribe?

*Offer limited to qualified entities until November 30, 2013.
40
Copyright © 2013 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved

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IHS Pricing & Purchasing Service
Coverage Across Industries and Geographies
North America

Europe

Asia-Pacific

Rest of World

Total

Electronic Components (1,000+ Prices) are available to add on to any of the P&P packages
Agricultural Modules: Grains, Sugar, Dairy, Oils, Livestock, Biofuels are available to add on to any of the P&P packages
Labor (200+ Wages)

Labor (200+ Wages)

Labor (100+ Wages)

Labor (100+ Wages)

TOTAL WAGES: 750+

Energy (100+ Prices)

Energy (150+ Prices)

Energy (10+ Prices)

Energy (≈100 Prices)

TOTAL ENERGY PRICES: 400+

Steel (50 Prices)

Steel ( ≈50 Prices)

Steel (20+ Prices)

Steel (≈10 Prices)

TOTAL STEEL PRICES: 100+

Non-Ferrous ( ≈50
Prices)

Non-Ferrous (20 Prices)

Non-Ferrous (10+
Prices)

Non-Ferrous (2
Prices)

TOTAL NON-FERROUS
PRICES: ≈100

Chemicals & Plastics
( ≈100 Prices)

Chemicals & Plastics (50+
Prices)

Chemicals & Plastics
(≈50 Prices)

Chemicals & Plastics
(2 Prices)

TOTAL CHEMICALS &
PLASTICS PRICES: ≈200

Building Materials
Capital Eq
Paper/Packaging
Logistics
Indirect Spend

Building Materials
Capital Eq
Paper/Packaging
Logistics
Indirect Spend

Building Materials
Capital Eq
Paper/Packaging
Logistics
Indirect Spend

Building Materials
Capital Eq
Paper/Packaging
Logistics
Indirect Spend

TOTAL OTHER PRICES: 400+

TOTAL NORTH
AMERICAN PRICES
AND WAGES: 700+

TOTAL EUROPEAN PRICES
AND WAGES: 400+

TOTAL ASIAN PRICES
AND WAGES: 100+

TOTAL RoW PRICES
AND WAGES: ≈200

GLOBAL PRICING
COVERAGE: 1300+ Prices
and Wages

© 2013 IHS

41

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For More Information
Send questions and requests for information to:
Webcasts@ihs.com

Visit IHS.com/PricingPurchasing for more information

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IHS Material Price Outlook: A 2014 Buyer’s Guide

  • 1. Welcome to Today’s Webcast IHS Material Price Outlook: A 2014 Buyer’s Guide November 7, 2013
  • 2. Today’s Speakers Howard Rappaport  Senior Director of Chemicals, IHS Howard Rappaport has over 30 years of experience in the chemicals and plastics industry. He is a sought after industry speaker, and has been quoted in various publications and media including: The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, The Financial Times, Fortune Magazine, Forbes Magazine, Bloomberg, National Public Radio, The BBC as well as numerous other chemical & plastics industry publications. Prior to joining IHS, Howard held various chemical industry management level positions in commercial development, business management, product management, sales/marketing, and customer service. Company affiliations include American Hoechst > Huntsman Chemical, Cain Chemical > Occidental Chemical, Himont > Montell Polyolefins, and Westlake Chemical. Copyright © 2013 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved www.ihs.com/PricingPurchasing 5
  • 3. Today’s Speakers John Mothersole  Director of Research & Lead Nonferrous Metals Analyst, IHS Mr. Mothersole is a Principal in the Industry Practices Group, where he is the nonferrous metals analyst. He also helps supervise the Pricing and Purchasing Service's price and wage forecasts and the construction cost and operation and maintenance costs forecasts prepared by the group's Power Planner Service. He has a graduate degree in economics from the University of Maryland. Copyright © 2013 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved www.ihs.com/PricingPurchasing 6
  • 4. Today’s Speakers John Anton  Principal Economist, Pricing & Purchasing, IHS Anton is Director of the IHS Steel Service and the ferrous metals industry analyst for the firm's Cost and Industry Service. In addition to producing regular forecasts of steel production, demand, and price, he is also responsible for managing the relationship between IHS and major steel clients, including some of the largest mills in the United States, Japan, and Europe. He has an economics degree from Florida State University and a law degree from the Marshall-Wythe School of Law at the College of William and Mary. In addition to his work with IHS clients, Mr. Anton regularly provides steel industry analysis to magazines and dailies such as Purchasing Magazine, Steel Business Briefing, American Metal Market, Investor’s Business Daily, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Bloomberg, and Engineering News Record. Copyright © 2013 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved www.ihs.com/PricingPurchasing 7
  • 5. Energy & Chemicals Fundamentals vs. Fear November, 2013 Howard Rappaport Senior Director of Chemicals, IHS Operational Excellence & Risk Management Howard.Rappaport@ihs.com 8
  • 6. Chemicals & Plastics: What to Expect • Currently a “sellers market” with high and volatile prices • Demand slowly recovering, but growth is below normal historical rates for many products • New capacity is on the way, but not enough to change the short term market dynamics • Elevated energy prices (predominantly crude oil) continue to pressure the cost side (strong producer profits in US, however) • Recent events tipping the scales on supply / demand • Price direction will be elevated for most products, but more stable with downside potential later in 2014 • Keep an eye on the Middle East and the US Gulf Coast (politics, violence & weather) Copyright © 2013 IHS Inc. www.ihs.com/PricingPurchasing 9
  • 7. Better Fundamentals Drive Oil Prices Lower • No change to our fourth quarter Brent Crude Oil Price Outlook Brent outlook ($108/barrel) (US dollars per barrel) • Diplomatic initiatives with Syrian chemical weapons, issue and Iranian nuclear program easing “fear premium” on oil prices. • Slightly increased Brent price outlook for 2014 and 2015 • Brent crude oil will average $104 for 2014 and $99 for 2015 • The oil market is now more vulnerable to another major outage 140 120 100 80 60 40 • Global spare capacity will be lower than anticipated in 2014/15 • Libyan and Iraqi production will continue to disappoint Copyright © 2013 IHS Inc. 20 2009:1 2010:1 2011:1 2012:1 2013:1 2014:1 2015:1 Source: IHS CERA www.ihs.com/PricingPurchasing 10
  • 8. Chemical Industry Building Blocks – Market Dynamics General Trends • Capacity expansions being driven by low cost feedstocks & integration strategies in North America, Asia and the Middle East • Cost of production is closely tied to the cost of hydrocarbon feedstock's (ethane from natural gas and naphtha from crude oil). The Middle East and North America have a natural gas cost advantage • Higher global crude oil prices put added upward pressure on market prices in all regions • North America has had some recent supply issues, but those will resolve themselves along with new projects coming on line • Demand growth has been hampered by the slow economic recovery and the expectation of lower prices in 2014 Copyright © 2013 IHS Inc. www.ihs.com/PricingPurchasing 11
  • 9. Chemical Industry Building Blocks – Market Dynamics Ethylene • High prices today with record margins for US producers • Cost of production is closely tied to cost of hydrocarbon feedstock's (ethane and naphtha) • North America will enjoy a long term cost advantage based on natural gas reserves • North America prepares for a surge in capacity investment • Asia and Middle East continue to build as planned • Europe may consolidate higher cost production Copyright © 2013 IHS Inc. www.ihs.com/PricingPurchasing 12
  • 10. Ethylene Prices - Outlook • Near-term ethylene forecast slightly higher due to recent spot activity. • Costs still remain low relative to history. • Low cash costs and fairly stable spot prices will continue with a mostly flat forecast through the end of the year. • The turnaround schedule in the first half of 2014 for crackers could affect spot pricing starting in January as market players start pre-building inventories… Copyright © 2013 IHS Inc. 13 www.ihs.com/PricingPurchasing
  • 11. Propylene Prices – Outlook • The propylene forecast for next few months remains slightly higher but volatile based on supply issues. • PP supplies are tight and converters are having difficulty building inventory. • Chevron Phillips is still on sales allocation due to production issues. • Outages of supply expected in the 1H of 2014 boost prices in the US. • The average 2014 PG price will be 64 cents. Down 5 cents from the 2013 average. Copyright © 2013 IHS Inc. 14 www.ihs.com/PricingPurchasing
  • 12. More “On Purpose” Production Will Drive Global Propylene Capacity Growth On Purpose Propylene Production, Million Metric Tons 35 30 25 20 15 25% 10 45% 5 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Ex Dehydro - PDH Metathesis Olefin Cracking Via Methanol: CTP HS FCC 2022 Others On-Purpose Copyright © 2013 IHS Inc. 15 www.ihs.com/PricingPurchasing
  • 13. Chemical Industry Building Blocks – Market Dynamics Benzene • Supply trends complicated by ethylene, gasoline, paraxylene and shifting environmental regulations Price (Cents Per Gallon) $6.00 $5.00 $4.00 • Refinery operations and renewable fuel trends are critical to benzene supply • Growth in demand and capacity migrating to Asia (where majority of polystyrene & ABS growth is) $3.00 $2.00 $1.00 $0.00 Jan2000 Jan2002 Jan2004 Jan2006 US Jan2008 Jan2010 Jan2012 Jan2014 Asia • Elevated prices are expected for the next 12-18 months Copyright © 2013 IHS Inc. 16 www.ihs.com/PricingPurchasing
  • 14. Chemical Industry Building Blocks – Market Dynamics Butadiene • On-Purpose production will continue to rise • Technology related to region and feedstock availability • Steam cracker and refinery (FCC) supply trends also vary by region. North America is “supply challenged” near term • Demand growth trending towards GDP due to emphasis on more durable goods applications (auto, construction, appliances, electronics) • Prices heavily influenced by crude oil trends Copyright © 2013 IHS Inc. 17 www.ihs.com/PricingPurchasing
  • 15. Implications For Chemical “Building Block” Buyers • Ethylene • Slightly lower prices near term, but higher in early 2014 • Keep an eye on hurricane activity in USGC (season ends 11/30) • Big investments coming in US capacity longer term = better pricing • Propylene • Tight supply in the US near term • Higher prices in early 2014. • More “on purpose” production will provide relief • Benzene • Closely following oil price trends • Prices will remain above $4.00 per gallon through 2014 • Butadiene • Recent high prices coming down early in 2014 as supply improves • Continuing volatility will plague rubber prices until “on purpose” capacity arrives Copyright © 2013 IHS Inc. www.ihs.com/PricingPurchasing 18
  • 16. Nonferrous Metals No return of the “Supercycle” November, 2013 John Mothersole Director of Research, IHS Operational Excellence & Risk Management John.Mothersole@ihs.com 19
  • 17. Nonferrous Metals: What to Expect • Collectively, prices look range bound • Production costs in most cases limit the downside • Upside is also capped – aluminum, copper, nickel or zinc all look fundamentally weak or balanced in 2014 • A slow global recovery means consumption growth improves -- modestly • The acceleration in growth over 2014 will be stronger in the old ‘dull’ industrial economies • But there is room for this recovery to grow into • Capacity is adequate or inventory is high • Markets generally look well supplied with flat or rising coverage ratios • Bottom-line: near-term prices look flat at levels well below their recent 2011 peak 20 © 2013 IHS www.ihs.com/PricingPurchasing
  • 18. No return of the “Supercycle” – prices look flat 25% below their recent peaks IHS Index of Primary Nonferrous Metal Prices, 94-95=1.0 3.0 2.6 2.2 1.8 1.4 1.0 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 21 © 2013 IHS www.ihs.com/PricingPurchasing
  • 19. Consumption growth improves, but remains modest Global Metal Consumption Growth (Combined Al, Cu, Ni, Pb, Zn, percent change) 12.0% 8.0% 4.0% 0.0% -4.0% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 22 © 2013 IHS www.ihs.com/PricingPurchasing
  • 20. China’s impact on base metal prices Year over year change 100 20 80 18 60 16 40 14 20 12 0 10 -20 8 -40 6 -60 4 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 IHS Index of Primary Nonferrous Metals Prices, LHS 2010 2012 2014 Chinese Industrial Production, RHS 23 © 2013 IHS www.ihs.com/PricingPurchasing
  • 21. Aluminum • Market is in surplus with huge inventory overhang • But prices can’t go lower -- they are already below cost • The physical market is tighter that it appears by traditional fundamental measures because most inventory is tied up in ‘financing deals’ • This is what is lifting premiums • So what happens? • The key is interest rates, higher rates will raise carrying costs and make financing deals unprofitable • As financing deals unwind, metal will become available to the physical market, lowering premiums • Change in LME warehousing rules this April may also have the same effect • The result will be cuts in production • LME prices will drift higher as the surplus narrows toward balance • Actual transaction prices may remain flat as higher LME prices are offset by falling premiums • LME prices hit $2,171/mt in Q4 2014 – a 17% increase though prices will not be much different than they were in early 2013 24 © 2013 IHS www.ihs.com/PricingPurchasing
  • 22. Copper • Prices head lower in 2014 • Copper/Aluminum price ratio: copper still looks rich even after next year’s correction Production costs near $5,000/mt underscore how much downside there potentially is 3.5 • Market is in surplus • Visible inventory did fall last month, but the long anticipated rise in mine production has arrived. Data to July shows the strongest gains in more than 10 years • Demand growth looks healthy, but no boom • • 4.0 3.0 2.5 2.0 Chinese demand is picking up, but not enough to offset the rise in domestic production; import growth likely to fall in 2014 1.5 ETF launches are delayed 0.5 • The Bottom Line: market looks well supplied with prices falling well below $6,500/mt next year 1.0 0.0 25 © 2013 IHS www.ihs.com/PricingPurchasing
  • 23. Nickel: Oversupplied • Nickel is besieged by a glut of material that continues to grow Nickel Inventory, thousands of metric tons • Inventories are at record highs with a rising coverage ratio • New production continues to come online • New NPI technology lowers the cost floor for stainless production • Rescission of Indonesia ore ban means material flows uninterrupted in 2014 • Demand is improving but not yet enough to dig into inventories • Stainless steel production will grow about 4% in 2014, enough to allow prices to move out of the cost curve early next year • Prices continue to sit in the cost curve – 275 250 225 200 175 150 125 100 75 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 the only direction to go therefore is up • Expect a mild recovery in prices with any uptick in stainless steel production 26 © 2013 IHS www.ihs.com/PricingPurchasing
  • 24. Implications for Buyers • Aluminum • Prices are unsustainably low • But another surplus in 2014 and a huge inventory overhang limit the upside • Watch interest rates – they will signal the beginning of the end for financing deals and lower premiums • Changes in LME warehousing rules slated for April may also have the same effect • Copper • Prices are headed lower • Surplus widens in 2014, with inventory heading higher • Downside is only limited by production costs, which are well below $6,000/mt • Nickel • Like aluminum, prices are unsustainably low • But also like aluminum, another surplus in 2014 and high inventory limit the upside 27 © 2013 IHS www.ihs.com/PricingPurchasing
  • 25. Steel for 2014 and 2015 Short-term benefit, mid-term danger November, 2013 John Anton Director of Steel Service, IHS Operational Excellence & Risk Management John.Anton@ihs.com 28
  • 26. Steel –Sedate for 2014, Increasing risk afterwards • A buyer’s paradox • The basic outlook is flat, so no hurry • But risk creates one-sided bets, so we still think locking could be wise • Prices cannot go down much, they easily could go higher • Prices are essentially flat for most of 2014 • No shortages without a disaster • Eventually (2015?) the low prices cause mill failures and higher prices 29 © 2013 IHS www.ihs.com/PricingPurchasing
  • 27. Where are the Bargains? • China Best • China is overproducing as mills favor tonnage over profits • Prices are often $150/metric ton lower than in the U.S., $70 below Europe • Other Asia • Low Chinese prices pressure Korea and Japan, who have excellent quality • Europe • Prices hover between those in Asia and North America • Quality is often very high • North America • Well above those already mentioned, but delivery is fast and quality is high • South America • Protectionism makes South America one of the worst places to buy Worst © 2013 IHS 30 www.ihs.com/PricingPurchasing
  • 28. Hot rolled carbon sheet (Dollars per metric tonne) • Demand is strong in NAFTA 1000 and China, soft in Europe 900 • US price consistently higher 800 than others • Price hike for 13Q4, probably drops back in early 2014 • Advice: Locking minimizes risk, but otherwise no reason to rush 700 600 500 400 2009 2010 2011 United States 2012 2013 Europe 2014 2015 China 31 © 2013 IHS www.ihs.com/PricingPurchasing
  • 29. Plate (Dollars per metric tonne) • Demand rises significantly in 2014 • Premium over sheet is much narrower than normal 1200 1000 • Some rebound in 2014 as premium partially returns • China is far lower, giving 800 upside room • Chinese weakness suppresses Japan and Korea 600 • Advice: try to lock current levels for 2014, especially Asian prices 400 2009 2010 2011 United States 2012 2013 Europe 2014 2015 China 32 © 2013 IHS www.ihs.com/PricingPurchasing
  • 30. Merchant Bar (Dollars per metric tonne) • Demand rises in 2014 in line 1100 with overall manufacturing 1000 • Idle capacity is rampant • USA prices dropped in 2013 900 to narrow the premium 800 • Still comparatively wide • Little downside for Europe, 700 effectively none for China 600 • Advice: try to fight North American price hikes. In other regions, lock now if cautious, buy spot if daring. 500 2009 2010 2011 United States 2012 2013 Europe 2014 2015 China 33 © 2013 IHS www.ihs.com/PricingPurchasing
  • 31. Concrete Reinforcing Bar (Rebar) (Dollars per metric tonne) • Demand rises in 2014 900 • United States • Middle East/North Africa 800 • China-led Asia • High amounts of idle capacity • A premium exists, but not as wide as for other products • WARNING: Trade action coming to the United States • Higher prices? 700 600 500 • Lower in other markets? • Advice: Buy soon. The price is low, and the logical direction is upwards. 400 2009 2010 2011 United States 2012 2013 Europe 2014 2015 China 34 © 2013 IHS www.ihs.com/PricingPurchasing
  • 32. Special bars (SBQ) (Dollars per metric ton) • The buying outlook is finally 1,500 improving • New capacity is coming online in North America 1,300 • Huge lead times are shrinking • Demand is high but effectively near a plateau 1,100 • Autos, energy are already strong • Prices fall as allocation fades, but 900 remain elevated • Some European SBQ mills are in distress, & may be dragged under by weakness in other products 700 2009 2010 2011 2012 Special Quality Bar 2013 2014 2015 Merchant Bar 35 © 2013 IHS www.ihs.com/PricingPurchasing
  • 33. Stainless (Dollars per metric ton) • Input costs (surcharges) will rise 6000 in 2014 • Nickel selling at/below cost • Stainless mill capacity is high, 5000 utilization is fairly low • Prices will rise in coming years 4000 • Ni, Cr, other alloy metals increase for 2014 and beyond • Beware of labor and electricity 3000 problems in South Africa 2000 • Advice: buy ASAP 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 United States Europe China 36 © 2013 IHS www.ihs.com/PricingPurchasing
  • 34. 2014 Buying Advice • Sheet • Sit on your wallet until February or March, unless you are offered a full year at a reasonable prices • Plate • Lock in current bargains. 2014 will not explode, but right now there is opportunity. • Bar steel – Commodity grades • Buy soon or sit until 2014Q2. Not extreme, but up. • Watch out for US protectionism on rebar and wire rod • Bar steel – Special bar • Live hand to mouth. Prices should fall sharply in coming months. • Stainless • Buy now! This is our most clear cut advice. 37 © 2013 IHS www.ihs.com/PricingPurchasing
  • 35. Thank you! 38 Copyright © 2013 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved www.ihs.com/PricingPurchasing
  • 36. Recommended for all attendees… Subscribe to Weekly Pricing Pulse Newsletter… How to Subscribe? *Offer limited to qualified entities until November 30, 2013. 40 Copyright © 2013 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved www.ihs.com/PricingPurchasing
  • 37. IHS Pricing & Purchasing Service Coverage Across Industries and Geographies North America Europe Asia-Pacific Rest of World Total Electronic Components (1,000+ Prices) are available to add on to any of the P&P packages Agricultural Modules: Grains, Sugar, Dairy, Oils, Livestock, Biofuels are available to add on to any of the P&P packages Labor (200+ Wages) Labor (200+ Wages) Labor (100+ Wages) Labor (100+ Wages) TOTAL WAGES: 750+ Energy (100+ Prices) Energy (150+ Prices) Energy (10+ Prices) Energy (≈100 Prices) TOTAL ENERGY PRICES: 400+ Steel (50 Prices) Steel ( ≈50 Prices) Steel (20+ Prices) Steel (≈10 Prices) TOTAL STEEL PRICES: 100+ Non-Ferrous ( ≈50 Prices) Non-Ferrous (20 Prices) Non-Ferrous (10+ Prices) Non-Ferrous (2 Prices) TOTAL NON-FERROUS PRICES: ≈100 Chemicals & Plastics ( ≈100 Prices) Chemicals & Plastics (50+ Prices) Chemicals & Plastics (≈50 Prices) Chemicals & Plastics (2 Prices) TOTAL CHEMICALS & PLASTICS PRICES: ≈200 Building Materials Capital Eq Paper/Packaging Logistics Indirect Spend Building Materials Capital Eq Paper/Packaging Logistics Indirect Spend Building Materials Capital Eq Paper/Packaging Logistics Indirect Spend Building Materials Capital Eq Paper/Packaging Logistics Indirect Spend TOTAL OTHER PRICES: 400+ TOTAL NORTH AMERICAN PRICES AND WAGES: 700+ TOTAL EUROPEAN PRICES AND WAGES: 400+ TOTAL ASIAN PRICES AND WAGES: 100+ TOTAL RoW PRICES AND WAGES: ≈200 GLOBAL PRICING COVERAGE: 1300+ Prices and Wages © 2013 IHS 41 www.ihs.com/PricingPurchasing
  • 38. For More Information Send questions and requests for information to: Webcasts@ihs.com Visit IHS.com/PricingPurchasing for more information 42 Copyright © 2013 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved www.ihs.com/PricingPurchasing