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Indian Media & Communication: On a Road to
Convergence
The Journey so far and the path ahead
Summary

Not long ago in India, mobile phones were nowhere in the horizon, land line
phones were meant for a privileged few, there was just one television channel -
a government run service - with limited hours of programming, and a single state
radio network reigning supreme in the skies. As the decade of nineties
unfolded, the country entered into a historic phase of media and communication
revolution. In the span of just two decades, we have more than six hundred
television channels beaming on the country; mobile phones have become an
essential accessory for the working class; cable television and DTH are
undergoing astounding growth; and internet along with broadband is fast
catching up the astronomical expansion of other media platforms.

Media and Communication is a sunrise industry which is on a high growth
trajectory in India. The article is attempting to have a look at the origin and
growth of various forms of media and communication in the country and is having
a peep into the crystal ball for getting an idea of shape of things to come.




IMARC                                                                    Page 2
How Did it Start

Convergence has been a buzz-word since a decade or
so and sounds like being a new phenomenon in the
field of media and communication. However, perceiving
it in a rather relaxed and generic manner, it can be
argued that this term has been quite familiar to the
media world in some form or the other. Let us take the
example of drama which has been regarded by ancient
Indian sages as fifth Veda as it assimilated all the existing forms of art and
literature into it viz prose, poetry, music, dance, acting, painting, architecture etc.
Invention of this art form signifies convergence though not in the same sense as
it is understood now. It is nobody’s case that emergence of drama as an art form
meant annihilation of its constituents. In fact, drama flourished along with all
those art forms which got assimilated into it.

Drama is just one example. In the fag end of the nineteenth century, when the
medium of moving pictures was invented, it had no sound. Later on, when era of
silent movies gave way to talkies, sound got integrated with moving images
which was nothing but convergence of sound and visuals. The medium of moving
images proved to be a platform for convergence from another angle as well. It
not only adapted drama to its requirements but also news papers in forms of
newsreels and documentaries. While doing so, it did not kill or in any way subvert
or threaten the existence of other media forms.


Analog Era

                        Besides the advent of moving images, end of nineteenth
                        century marked an even bigger revolution in the field of
                        media and communication. Marconi invented wireless
                        communication by using analog electromagnetic waves
                        as carrier of messages. These analog carrier waves
                        brought many revolutions. Firstly, the ‘one to one’
                        wireless communication mode invented by Marconi
evolved itself into the ‘one to many’ communication
medium which was given the name of broadcasting.
Initially, it was sound broadcasting. Once again, this
new medium became a great tool for bringing various
media forms on one single platform. As we see, radio
as a medium was able to integrate into itself different
media formats viz speech, music, drama, news etc.
Was it not a great convergence phenomenon of its
time! Now let us look at television. With its invention in

IMARC                                                                           Page 3
the decade of thirties, sound broadcasting got integrated with visuals - again an
event of convergence on the platform of analog electromagnetic waves.
Interestingly, while in case of movies, visuals came first and later they got
integrated with sound; for television, it was the other way round. If we delve
deeper, we see emergence of television as yet another platform for convergence
of various media forms like news, drama, dance, music, documentaries, feature
films etc. Television signifies convergence of various forms of cultural and artistic
expressions as well as social and political communication.

There is yet another dimension to the argument that convergence in its generic
sense has been an ongoing phenomenon. Present day discussions on
convergence are veered around digital technology. However, if we look at its
precursor, the analog technology closely, it is also capable of serving as a
platform for convergence for telephone, radio and television at least in theoretical
sense. There can be counterargument that it is not really so as we would be
needing three different instruments for functions associated with telephone, radio
and television respectively but this counterargument is only partly true. Their
integration into single equipment on an analog platform has never been a
technological impossibility though there could be feasibility issues because of
variations in frequency assignments for television, radio and wireless telephony.

Digital Revolution
                       Though, convergence in a broader sense has been
                       known to the mankind since long, what has come on the
                       scene during the last two decades is convergence in the
                       specific context of digital revolution which has made
                       delivery of voice, text and video possible through one
                       single receiving mode much easier, practical, efficient
                       and ubiquitous. The technology underlying digital
                       revolution evolved during the later half of the last century
and has led to the conversion of earlier analog media formats into the new digital
modes.

The new technology has many special features. Firstly, in the analog technology
there is loss of information and resultant deterioration in quality while making
copies of video or audio tapes. In fact, quality gets from bad to worse in
successive generations of copying. As against this, in the digital environment,
one can make multiple generation copies with quality as good as the original
version. Secondly, amplification of digital signal as well as its passage to its final
destination takes place without any loss of information. Thirdly and even more
significantly, the technology enables the users to move the digital information
from one media format to the other with total ease. Access to and distribution of
information from anywhere to anywhere becomes possible without tears.



IMARC                                                                          Page 4
As a result of this revolution, consumption and
distribution of recorded music underwent a paradigm
shift during the decade of eighties as vinyl records and
cassette tapes were gradually supplanted by optical
compact discs. During the same decade, personal
computers started gaining popularity among the
general public at least in the developed countries and
millions of people bought computers for home use. In
the decade of nineties, digital technology virtually revolutionized the developed
world in particular after the World Wide Web (WWW) or the internet was made
available to the common people in 1992. It soon became a powerful vehicle for
globalization and outsourcing. By the end of the last century, almost every
country had internet connection and all big business entities had their websites.
Most visible aspect of this revolution are cell phones which are increasingly
becoming a common sight even in the developing world.

The impact of digital technology on the modern era has been far and wide.
Gramophone records have turned into CDs and mp3 discs. Video tapes have
metamorphosed into DVDs and then further into Blu-ray. Conventional postal
mails have given way to e-mails. Photo reels have almost vanished in the digital
cameras. Analog broadcasting is getting replaced by digital broadcasting-both
for radio and television. The all-pervading character of the technology can be
fathomed from the fact that it is permeating into almost every area of human
activity - from typewriting to e-commerce. Conventional books, magazines and
newspapers are now available in their e-avatars and almost all news papers
worth their salt are now having their web versions which can be accessed from
anywhere. If you are sitting in some small Indian village, you need not send your
subscription and wait anxiously for the postman for enjoying your favorite
international newspaper or magazine like Washington Post or Economist and
hoping that they do not get poached by some other ardent and voracious reader!
They are now all available on your computer screen after just few clicks of
mouse. These developments have social and political fall outs. Digital revolution
has not only led to greater interconnectedness and easier communication
resulting in blurring of international boundaries but also to exposure to such
information that was easily getting suppressed in the past by totalitarian regimes.

                       Network convergence is a significant feature of digital
                       revolution. Different characteristics of different types of
                       information - audio, video and text - led to development of
                       separate networks for each of them. There has been one
                       network for telephone, another for cable television and yet
                       another for internet. They were designed differently and
                       were very often incompatible due to various feasibility
                       considerations. This problem has been overcome with the
advent of digital technology which reduces information into discrete, identifiable
and thus more easily transferable pieces of information. Network convergence

IMARC                                                                       Page 5
utilizes this attribute of digital communication to efficiently and effectively
distribute different types of information through the same communication
network. With the emergence of network convergence, we can have voice, video
and text through the same network. As a result, we can receive both television
programmes and internet service through our telephone line. On the other hand,
it is also possible for our friendly cable operator in the neighborhood to provide
along with television channels, internet and telephone services as well. Cell
phones are the most telling example of such convergence as they are growing
into a powerful vehicle of transmission of not only voice but also of text and
video.

Indian Scenario

While having a glimpse at the Indian scenario, we come
across a very interesting aspect. In some areas of
broadcasting and communication, India has almost kept
pace with the developed world since the very beginning.
First telegraph line in USA was commissioned in May,
1844 between Washington DC and Baltimore. India
caught up within the next seven years and the first
telegraph line between Kolkata and Diamond Harbour,
became operational in 1851. Again, Telephone was
invented by Alexander Graham Bell in 1876 and commercial telephone service
began in US in 1877. As against this, in India, first license for establishing
telephone services was granted to an English company in 1881 which was able
to open telephone exchanges in Kolkata, Chennai and Mumbai the very next
year. Now let us consider radio broadcasting. Like countries in the developed
world where regular and organized broadcasting was launched in the decade of
twenties, India entered into this arena in 1927 with the Indian Broadcasting
Company coming into operation.

We cannot say the same in case of television broadcasting where India had been
a laggard. While hectic experiments were going on in the developed world in the
decade of thirties and a 405 line television service was launched by BBC in
November, 1936, first television broadcast was made in India only in September,
1959. In case of change over from B&W to colour, the time lag was even more
palpable. While the first coast to coast colour broadcast was made in US on the
New Year Day of 1954, India was able to do it only in 1982.

 In the area of mobile telephony, India lagged much behind the developed world
for many years. The first commercially automated cellular network was launched
in Japan in 1979. It was first generation or 1G mobile service meant for voice
transmissions only. Second generation or 2G service, a digital system capable
of providing voice, data and fax transfers, appeared in Finland in 1991. In case of
third generation or 3G services, which allows much better flow of voice, data and

IMARC                                                                       Page 6
video, it was once again Japan where it was launched in the year 2001. Now,
the developed world is looking forward to the launch of 4G mobile services which
will provide wireless broadband transfers at amazing speed, at least by present
standards. As against this, mobile phone service was launched in India at a
much later stage in 1994 and that too only in Delhi and Kolkata to begin with.
Licenses for 2G service were auctioned by the government as late as in 2008. By
comparison, movement in the 3G era is expected to be relatively faster as the
auction of licenses have already taken place this year. However, in the field of
internet, India is entitled to some credit. While in US, the internet became
available for commercial use in 1992, VSNL in India launched this service in
1994-just within two years.

                                 It is paradoxical that notwithstanding all hiccups
                                 and delays, both television and mobile telephony
                                 have undergone phenomenal expansion in India.
                                 In case of television, by the end of decade of
                                 eighties, it was just Doordarshan - a government
                                 run channel - which was providing this service
                                 during certain specified hours only. In 1990, the
                                 country got the first taste of a non- government
television when CNN started beaming on India during Gulf War. Beneficiaries of
this service were a handful of well-to-do households in the elite metropolitan
areas. From this numerically insignificant but high profile beginning, non-
government sector has now come of age. There are more than four hundred
channels now available to Indian viewers. Reach of television in India through
terrestrial coverage is ninety percent in terms of population. Theoretically, it
translates into a huge number in a country with 1.2 billion population but total
number of TV homes in India is only 134 million as in November, 2009 as per a
study conducted by TAM Media Research. In November, 2008, this number was
123 million which meant that TV homes registered a growth of nine percent in
one year. Out of 134 million TV homes, number of homes having cable and
satellite connection is 103 million. In November, 2008, there were only 90 million
such homes which meant that growth in C&S segment has been much faster viz.
fifteen percent. Out of these 103 million C&S homes, eighty five percent are in
urban areas which means that penetration of cable & satellite in rural areas is
rather limited.

When we look at the growth of Direct to Home
(DTH) television in India, the story is just the
reverse. Growth is much more in rural areas than
urban centers. As per current estimates, there are
20 million DTH homes and out of these, 14 million
are in rural India. These 20 million homes are
divided among six players viz. Dish TV, Tata Sky,
Sun Direct, Big TV, Airtel Digital TV and Videocon
D2H. It is interesting to note that Doordarshan, which is a major player in this

IMARC                                                                       Page 7
segment with its DD-Direct Plus DTH Service, is not being accounted for as this
service is free to air and unlike DTH Pay TV, there are no authentic record of its
subscribers. However, as per estimates, there are 10 million DTH homes
covered by Doordarshan. DTH market is going with a fast pace in India and it is
estimated that it will grow at CAGR of twenty-eight percent between the period
2010 and 2012. According to market analysts, India is poised to become largest
DTH Pay TV market in the world by 2012.

                        Growth of mobile telephony in India has been rather
                       astronomical. The service was started in India in 1994 and
                       by December, 2001, there were 7.56 million connections.
                       There was ten fold increase within just four years as the
                       number of connections rose to 75.94 million by December,
                       2005. By another four years the network expanded by seven
                       times and India was having 525.94 million mobile
                       subscribers by December, 2009. As per estimates, number
                       of subscribers further rose to 585.32 million by March, 2010.
                       In terms of number of connections, India is only behind
                       China which has 777 million subscribers. It is, however,
estimated that India will soon overtake China and by 2012 as there would be 893
million cell-phone users in the country. One major reason for such mind blowing
growth is that the mobile tariffs in India have kept on falling and are now lowest in
the world. It is interesting to note that in comparison to gigantic figures of mobile
connections, there are only 37 million fixed-line subscribers.

As opposed to mobile phones, reach of internet in India is quite limited. There are
only 81 million internet users and in other words, only seven percent of the
population is having access to this service which is one of the lowest in the world.
Accessibility of broadband is even more limited with only eight million people
being able to use this facility. Even this not-so-significant number is further
qualified by the fact that in India broadband is defined as 256 kbps (kilo bytes per
second) which is ridiculously low by global standards. Thankfully, Telecom
Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) has now recommended raising of limit to two
mbps (mega bytes per second).


The Road Ahead
Salient feature of the digital revolution is that it is having a symbiotic relationship
with the forces of globalization as it is a powerful vehicle and strong catalyst for
globalization on the one hand and its major beneficiary on the other. As a result,
the technology is increasingly becoming more and more globally integrated. Now,
any development taking place in one part of the world (read developed world)
catches the remaining parts like wild fire. In most of the countries which have
crossed a particular technological threshold, adoption of latest technology is


IMARC                                                                           Page 8
taking place without any major time lag. Latest
versions of          desktop computers, laptops,
televisions, cameras, mobile phones or for that
matter any other equipment or gadget are soon
available almost everywhere. In such a situation,
future trends in respect of a particular country
cannot be analyzed in isolation. We will have to
account for global trends while considering local
factors like cultural and societal forces, economic
scenario, levels of literacy and education, technological and scientific
developments etc.

The present global scenario is fluid and dynamic and the technology is in the
continuous process of evaluation in every direction. What was latest and state-of-
art yesterday is obsolete today. In such a situation, any crystal ball gazing is
fraught with dangers. However, there are certain discernible trends which one
cannot help mentioning.

Firstly, territorial divisions between television, telephone and computers are not
only melting but are increasingly overlapping upon each other. A television can
now be made to act like a video phone and may have some features of a
computer as well. A computer can act both as a phone and a television.
Likewise, a mobile phone can perform many functions of a computer and at the
same time also act as a television. Such intrusions are likely to further intensify in
future.

Secondly, such intermingling of territorial divisions is not resulting in any kind of
confused identity. Each gadget is able to retain its main identity and core activity
while integrating into it certain functions of other gadgets. No cannibalizing is
happening as consumers still prefer to use a particular gadget for a particular
function. People do not discard their TV sets just because programmes can be
watched through a computer. As a rule, TV set is associated with relaxation while
computer’s association is with working. It is another thing that a person might like
to watch a missed episode either while relaxing during work hours or during
traveling. Thus, computer is only offering an option to its user without trying to
replace the television set. To the contrary, entire process is working to the
advantage of both the gadgets. Additional functions being added to any gadget
only result in value addition and model up-gradation without any dilution either in
its own basic identity or threat to other gadgets. What is true for mutual
relationship between computer and television equally holds good for other
gadgets. In all probability, this trend is going to continue in the short and medium
term.




IMARC                                                                          Page 9
Thirdly, while encroachments in each
                                        other’s territories continue, computers,
                                        televisions and mobile phones are on a
                                        continuous growth path in their own rights
                                        as well. While both computers and mobile
                                        phones are incessantly and insatiably
                                        adding to their storage capability and
                                        processing speed and untiringly searching
                                        for new applications, television broadcasting
is in a confidant and upbeat mood. It is moving from analog to digital environment
all the world over and, in fact, looking much beyond its conventional platforms
like terrestrial, cable and DTH. TV is venturing into new modes of distribution
such as IP TV, webcasting and mobile phones. Another dimension of
technological advancement is that conventional standard definition transmission
is poised for replacement by high definition transmission or HDTV which enables
viewers to enjoy better picture quality on a wider screen. Also, domestic twenty
one inch TV sets are now passé and larger and larger LCD screens are in-things.
Such multidirectional growth and development in the TV industry only shows that
it is not perceiving any threat to its existence as the prime medium of information
and entertainment and looking forward to a bright future for many more years to
come.

Fourthly, digital revolution will be bringing
more and more changes in the programming
formats of television. They will be getting
more and more interactive. Already, viewers
are encouraged to participate in programmes
either by giving answer to questions or by
casting their votes for their favourite
participants in talent hunt shows by using
their mobile phones. Some news channels have introduced the concept of
citizen journalists according to which viewers are encouraged to shoot news-
worthy visuals and send them to channels. With continuous development and up-
gradation in digital technology and falling prices of gadgets, this trend will pick up
further and there will be more and more creative ideas taking shape in the area
of interactive television programming. Long standing divide between directors,
performers and technicians on the one hand and audiences on the other will
vanish gradually. In fact, it may also be a giant leap in the direction of people
empowerment and strengthening of democratic process.

Fifthly, besides television, internet is developing in to a great tool of people
empowerment and actual realization of constitutional right to freedom of
expression. In various democratic countries, though people have this right, it
mostly remains on paper due to the fact that an ordinary citizen does not have
means to exercise it. Printing and distributing a newspaper or running a TV
channel is beyond his means. As a result, media gets monopolized by big

IMARC                                                                        Page 10
business houses having means to do so. Internet provides a much cheaper
option to an ordinary man to express himself by running his own website. With
falling prices of various gadgets and equipments, it will be possible for him to
even run his own radio station or TV channel without incurring much expenditure.
With increase in broadband and internet penetration in the coming years, this
trend will further catch up.

Sixthly, with increasing participation of common man in interactive TV
programming and more and more use of internet by him for expressing himself,
being media savvy will no longer be exclusive preserve of politicians, actors and
senior managers only. It will be essential social trait and compulsory personality
requisite for every educated person in the coming years. Media production
techniques will have to be essential part of curriculum from school level itself.


The Indian Future

Above trends are only illustrative and indicative and in no way exhaustive. They
have applicability to India with certain riders and qualifications.

Firstly, while television broadcasting and mobile telephony are fairly developed in
India in terms of penetration; broadband and internet lag far behind at this stage.
They may remain so in the short and medium term in view of the fact that,
despite falling prices, computers are still beyond the reach of large number of
people. Also, monthly, broadband connection is yet to become affordable for
everyone. Further, unlike telephone or mobile, internet connection at home has
still not become a basic need and essential ingredient for day to day life.
Moreover, unlike mobile or television, one needs some basic skill for handling
computer and internet which even large number of educated people do not have.
However, situation will drastically improve in the long run due a strong economic
growth, continuous increase in literacy and computer awareness, better and
cheaper broadband connectivity and gadgets becoming cheaper and cheaper.

Secondly, in view of the above, in the short and medium term, television and
mobile phones are likely to be growth drivers in the media sector. Both will be
having symbiotic relationship with each other which will be benefiting both the
sectors. Television software sector will be getting an alternative platform for
distribution of its products which will be a significant factor in driving its growth. It
may be mentioned that mobile cannot be a true replacement of television but it
will always have an advantage of reaching to out of home captive audiences.
Such audiences may have certain specific media requirements like sports, news,
interactive programmes or short duration entertainment though some of them
may even like to watch films or musical shows while either traveling or during
waiting for somebody for a longer period. At some point time, we might have
tailor made TV channels specifically catering to mobile users.


IMARC                                                                           Page 11
Thirdly, Due to growing symbiotic relationship between TV and mobile there are
will be more and more horizontal integrations between mobile and television
businesses. ADAG Group owning a mobile network is planning to get into
television business in a big way very soon. Airtel, a mobile service provider, is
already in DTH television business. This trend will continue.

Fourthly, mobile telephones as a medium of advertisement are catching up very
fast. Presently, advertisements are mostly in the form of SMS messages. In view
of its vast penetration and rolling down of 3G being round the corner, mobile
phones will be more and more preferred medium of advertisement. After 3G
becoming operational, advertisements are likely to be more attractively packaged
in audio-visual format and there is every likelihood of major advertisers giving
due weightage to this platform while drawing their future media plans and
allocating advertising budget among different media.

This sector has all the potentialities to be a major player in the Indian economy
as it is not only a sunrise industry in its own right but also a powerful catalyst for
the growth of other sectors. Policy makers will have to keep it in mind all the time.




IMARC                                                                         Page 12
About IMARC
For more than 5 years, the International Market Analysis Research and
Consulting Group has been a leading advisor on management strategy and
market research worldwide. We partner with clients in all sectors and regions to
identify their highest-value opportunities, address their most critical challenges,
and transform their businesses.

IMARC's information products include major market, scientific, economic and
technological developments for business leaders in pharmaceutical, industrial,
and high technology organizations. Market forecasts and industry analysis for
biotechnology, advanced materials, pharmaceuticals, food and beverage, travel
and tourism, nanotechnology and novel processing methods are at the top of the
company's expertise.

IMARC’s tailored approach combines unfathomable insight into the dynamics of
companies and markets with close cooperation at all levels of the client
organization. This ensures that our clients achieve unmatchable competitive
advantage, build more proficient organizations, and secure lasting results.



The author of this white paper is a well known figure in the Indian and British
electronic media industry with 36 years of experience in the field.

To avail our services in the field of media consultancy and research, please
contact sales@imarcgroup.com




IMARC                                                                      Page 13

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Indian Media & Communication: On a Road to Convergence

  • 1. IMARC Doing business just got easier…….much easier…. Indian Media & Communication: On a Road to Convergence The Journey so far and the path ahead
  • 2. Summary Not long ago in India, mobile phones were nowhere in the horizon, land line phones were meant for a privileged few, there was just one television channel - a government run service - with limited hours of programming, and a single state radio network reigning supreme in the skies. As the decade of nineties unfolded, the country entered into a historic phase of media and communication revolution. In the span of just two decades, we have more than six hundred television channels beaming on the country; mobile phones have become an essential accessory for the working class; cable television and DTH are undergoing astounding growth; and internet along with broadband is fast catching up the astronomical expansion of other media platforms. Media and Communication is a sunrise industry which is on a high growth trajectory in India. The article is attempting to have a look at the origin and growth of various forms of media and communication in the country and is having a peep into the crystal ball for getting an idea of shape of things to come. IMARC Page 2
  • 3. How Did it Start Convergence has been a buzz-word since a decade or so and sounds like being a new phenomenon in the field of media and communication. However, perceiving it in a rather relaxed and generic manner, it can be argued that this term has been quite familiar to the media world in some form or the other. Let us take the example of drama which has been regarded by ancient Indian sages as fifth Veda as it assimilated all the existing forms of art and literature into it viz prose, poetry, music, dance, acting, painting, architecture etc. Invention of this art form signifies convergence though not in the same sense as it is understood now. It is nobody’s case that emergence of drama as an art form meant annihilation of its constituents. In fact, drama flourished along with all those art forms which got assimilated into it. Drama is just one example. In the fag end of the nineteenth century, when the medium of moving pictures was invented, it had no sound. Later on, when era of silent movies gave way to talkies, sound got integrated with moving images which was nothing but convergence of sound and visuals. The medium of moving images proved to be a platform for convergence from another angle as well. It not only adapted drama to its requirements but also news papers in forms of newsreels and documentaries. While doing so, it did not kill or in any way subvert or threaten the existence of other media forms. Analog Era Besides the advent of moving images, end of nineteenth century marked an even bigger revolution in the field of media and communication. Marconi invented wireless communication by using analog electromagnetic waves as carrier of messages. These analog carrier waves brought many revolutions. Firstly, the ‘one to one’ wireless communication mode invented by Marconi evolved itself into the ‘one to many’ communication medium which was given the name of broadcasting. Initially, it was sound broadcasting. Once again, this new medium became a great tool for bringing various media forms on one single platform. As we see, radio as a medium was able to integrate into itself different media formats viz speech, music, drama, news etc. Was it not a great convergence phenomenon of its time! Now let us look at television. With its invention in IMARC Page 3
  • 4. the decade of thirties, sound broadcasting got integrated with visuals - again an event of convergence on the platform of analog electromagnetic waves. Interestingly, while in case of movies, visuals came first and later they got integrated with sound; for television, it was the other way round. If we delve deeper, we see emergence of television as yet another platform for convergence of various media forms like news, drama, dance, music, documentaries, feature films etc. Television signifies convergence of various forms of cultural and artistic expressions as well as social and political communication. There is yet another dimension to the argument that convergence in its generic sense has been an ongoing phenomenon. Present day discussions on convergence are veered around digital technology. However, if we look at its precursor, the analog technology closely, it is also capable of serving as a platform for convergence for telephone, radio and television at least in theoretical sense. There can be counterargument that it is not really so as we would be needing three different instruments for functions associated with telephone, radio and television respectively but this counterargument is only partly true. Their integration into single equipment on an analog platform has never been a technological impossibility though there could be feasibility issues because of variations in frequency assignments for television, radio and wireless telephony. Digital Revolution Though, convergence in a broader sense has been known to the mankind since long, what has come on the scene during the last two decades is convergence in the specific context of digital revolution which has made delivery of voice, text and video possible through one single receiving mode much easier, practical, efficient and ubiquitous. The technology underlying digital revolution evolved during the later half of the last century and has led to the conversion of earlier analog media formats into the new digital modes. The new technology has many special features. Firstly, in the analog technology there is loss of information and resultant deterioration in quality while making copies of video or audio tapes. In fact, quality gets from bad to worse in successive generations of copying. As against this, in the digital environment, one can make multiple generation copies with quality as good as the original version. Secondly, amplification of digital signal as well as its passage to its final destination takes place without any loss of information. Thirdly and even more significantly, the technology enables the users to move the digital information from one media format to the other with total ease. Access to and distribution of information from anywhere to anywhere becomes possible without tears. IMARC Page 4
  • 5. As a result of this revolution, consumption and distribution of recorded music underwent a paradigm shift during the decade of eighties as vinyl records and cassette tapes were gradually supplanted by optical compact discs. During the same decade, personal computers started gaining popularity among the general public at least in the developed countries and millions of people bought computers for home use. In the decade of nineties, digital technology virtually revolutionized the developed world in particular after the World Wide Web (WWW) or the internet was made available to the common people in 1992. It soon became a powerful vehicle for globalization and outsourcing. By the end of the last century, almost every country had internet connection and all big business entities had their websites. Most visible aspect of this revolution are cell phones which are increasingly becoming a common sight even in the developing world. The impact of digital technology on the modern era has been far and wide. Gramophone records have turned into CDs and mp3 discs. Video tapes have metamorphosed into DVDs and then further into Blu-ray. Conventional postal mails have given way to e-mails. Photo reels have almost vanished in the digital cameras. Analog broadcasting is getting replaced by digital broadcasting-both for radio and television. The all-pervading character of the technology can be fathomed from the fact that it is permeating into almost every area of human activity - from typewriting to e-commerce. Conventional books, magazines and newspapers are now available in their e-avatars and almost all news papers worth their salt are now having their web versions which can be accessed from anywhere. If you are sitting in some small Indian village, you need not send your subscription and wait anxiously for the postman for enjoying your favorite international newspaper or magazine like Washington Post or Economist and hoping that they do not get poached by some other ardent and voracious reader! They are now all available on your computer screen after just few clicks of mouse. These developments have social and political fall outs. Digital revolution has not only led to greater interconnectedness and easier communication resulting in blurring of international boundaries but also to exposure to such information that was easily getting suppressed in the past by totalitarian regimes. Network convergence is a significant feature of digital revolution. Different characteristics of different types of information - audio, video and text - led to development of separate networks for each of them. There has been one network for telephone, another for cable television and yet another for internet. They were designed differently and were very often incompatible due to various feasibility considerations. This problem has been overcome with the advent of digital technology which reduces information into discrete, identifiable and thus more easily transferable pieces of information. Network convergence IMARC Page 5
  • 6. utilizes this attribute of digital communication to efficiently and effectively distribute different types of information through the same communication network. With the emergence of network convergence, we can have voice, video and text through the same network. As a result, we can receive both television programmes and internet service through our telephone line. On the other hand, it is also possible for our friendly cable operator in the neighborhood to provide along with television channels, internet and telephone services as well. Cell phones are the most telling example of such convergence as they are growing into a powerful vehicle of transmission of not only voice but also of text and video. Indian Scenario While having a glimpse at the Indian scenario, we come across a very interesting aspect. In some areas of broadcasting and communication, India has almost kept pace with the developed world since the very beginning. First telegraph line in USA was commissioned in May, 1844 between Washington DC and Baltimore. India caught up within the next seven years and the first telegraph line between Kolkata and Diamond Harbour, became operational in 1851. Again, Telephone was invented by Alexander Graham Bell in 1876 and commercial telephone service began in US in 1877. As against this, in India, first license for establishing telephone services was granted to an English company in 1881 which was able to open telephone exchanges in Kolkata, Chennai and Mumbai the very next year. Now let us consider radio broadcasting. Like countries in the developed world where regular and organized broadcasting was launched in the decade of twenties, India entered into this arena in 1927 with the Indian Broadcasting Company coming into operation. We cannot say the same in case of television broadcasting where India had been a laggard. While hectic experiments were going on in the developed world in the decade of thirties and a 405 line television service was launched by BBC in November, 1936, first television broadcast was made in India only in September, 1959. In case of change over from B&W to colour, the time lag was even more palpable. While the first coast to coast colour broadcast was made in US on the New Year Day of 1954, India was able to do it only in 1982. In the area of mobile telephony, India lagged much behind the developed world for many years. The first commercially automated cellular network was launched in Japan in 1979. It was first generation or 1G mobile service meant for voice transmissions only. Second generation or 2G service, a digital system capable of providing voice, data and fax transfers, appeared in Finland in 1991. In case of third generation or 3G services, which allows much better flow of voice, data and IMARC Page 6
  • 7. video, it was once again Japan where it was launched in the year 2001. Now, the developed world is looking forward to the launch of 4G mobile services which will provide wireless broadband transfers at amazing speed, at least by present standards. As against this, mobile phone service was launched in India at a much later stage in 1994 and that too only in Delhi and Kolkata to begin with. Licenses for 2G service were auctioned by the government as late as in 2008. By comparison, movement in the 3G era is expected to be relatively faster as the auction of licenses have already taken place this year. However, in the field of internet, India is entitled to some credit. While in US, the internet became available for commercial use in 1992, VSNL in India launched this service in 1994-just within two years. It is paradoxical that notwithstanding all hiccups and delays, both television and mobile telephony have undergone phenomenal expansion in India. In case of television, by the end of decade of eighties, it was just Doordarshan - a government run channel - which was providing this service during certain specified hours only. In 1990, the country got the first taste of a non- government television when CNN started beaming on India during Gulf War. Beneficiaries of this service were a handful of well-to-do households in the elite metropolitan areas. From this numerically insignificant but high profile beginning, non- government sector has now come of age. There are more than four hundred channels now available to Indian viewers. Reach of television in India through terrestrial coverage is ninety percent in terms of population. Theoretically, it translates into a huge number in a country with 1.2 billion population but total number of TV homes in India is only 134 million as in November, 2009 as per a study conducted by TAM Media Research. In November, 2008, this number was 123 million which meant that TV homes registered a growth of nine percent in one year. Out of 134 million TV homes, number of homes having cable and satellite connection is 103 million. In November, 2008, there were only 90 million such homes which meant that growth in C&S segment has been much faster viz. fifteen percent. Out of these 103 million C&S homes, eighty five percent are in urban areas which means that penetration of cable & satellite in rural areas is rather limited. When we look at the growth of Direct to Home (DTH) television in India, the story is just the reverse. Growth is much more in rural areas than urban centers. As per current estimates, there are 20 million DTH homes and out of these, 14 million are in rural India. These 20 million homes are divided among six players viz. Dish TV, Tata Sky, Sun Direct, Big TV, Airtel Digital TV and Videocon D2H. It is interesting to note that Doordarshan, which is a major player in this IMARC Page 7
  • 8. segment with its DD-Direct Plus DTH Service, is not being accounted for as this service is free to air and unlike DTH Pay TV, there are no authentic record of its subscribers. However, as per estimates, there are 10 million DTH homes covered by Doordarshan. DTH market is going with a fast pace in India and it is estimated that it will grow at CAGR of twenty-eight percent between the period 2010 and 2012. According to market analysts, India is poised to become largest DTH Pay TV market in the world by 2012. Growth of mobile telephony in India has been rather astronomical. The service was started in India in 1994 and by December, 2001, there were 7.56 million connections. There was ten fold increase within just four years as the number of connections rose to 75.94 million by December, 2005. By another four years the network expanded by seven times and India was having 525.94 million mobile subscribers by December, 2009. As per estimates, number of subscribers further rose to 585.32 million by March, 2010. In terms of number of connections, India is only behind China which has 777 million subscribers. It is, however, estimated that India will soon overtake China and by 2012 as there would be 893 million cell-phone users in the country. One major reason for such mind blowing growth is that the mobile tariffs in India have kept on falling and are now lowest in the world. It is interesting to note that in comparison to gigantic figures of mobile connections, there are only 37 million fixed-line subscribers. As opposed to mobile phones, reach of internet in India is quite limited. There are only 81 million internet users and in other words, only seven percent of the population is having access to this service which is one of the lowest in the world. Accessibility of broadband is even more limited with only eight million people being able to use this facility. Even this not-so-significant number is further qualified by the fact that in India broadband is defined as 256 kbps (kilo bytes per second) which is ridiculously low by global standards. Thankfully, Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) has now recommended raising of limit to two mbps (mega bytes per second). The Road Ahead Salient feature of the digital revolution is that it is having a symbiotic relationship with the forces of globalization as it is a powerful vehicle and strong catalyst for globalization on the one hand and its major beneficiary on the other. As a result, the technology is increasingly becoming more and more globally integrated. Now, any development taking place in one part of the world (read developed world) catches the remaining parts like wild fire. In most of the countries which have crossed a particular technological threshold, adoption of latest technology is IMARC Page 8
  • 9. taking place without any major time lag. Latest versions of desktop computers, laptops, televisions, cameras, mobile phones or for that matter any other equipment or gadget are soon available almost everywhere. In such a situation, future trends in respect of a particular country cannot be analyzed in isolation. We will have to account for global trends while considering local factors like cultural and societal forces, economic scenario, levels of literacy and education, technological and scientific developments etc. The present global scenario is fluid and dynamic and the technology is in the continuous process of evaluation in every direction. What was latest and state-of- art yesterday is obsolete today. In such a situation, any crystal ball gazing is fraught with dangers. However, there are certain discernible trends which one cannot help mentioning. Firstly, territorial divisions between television, telephone and computers are not only melting but are increasingly overlapping upon each other. A television can now be made to act like a video phone and may have some features of a computer as well. A computer can act both as a phone and a television. Likewise, a mobile phone can perform many functions of a computer and at the same time also act as a television. Such intrusions are likely to further intensify in future. Secondly, such intermingling of territorial divisions is not resulting in any kind of confused identity. Each gadget is able to retain its main identity and core activity while integrating into it certain functions of other gadgets. No cannibalizing is happening as consumers still prefer to use a particular gadget for a particular function. People do not discard their TV sets just because programmes can be watched through a computer. As a rule, TV set is associated with relaxation while computer’s association is with working. It is another thing that a person might like to watch a missed episode either while relaxing during work hours or during traveling. Thus, computer is only offering an option to its user without trying to replace the television set. To the contrary, entire process is working to the advantage of both the gadgets. Additional functions being added to any gadget only result in value addition and model up-gradation without any dilution either in its own basic identity or threat to other gadgets. What is true for mutual relationship between computer and television equally holds good for other gadgets. In all probability, this trend is going to continue in the short and medium term. IMARC Page 9
  • 10. Thirdly, while encroachments in each other’s territories continue, computers, televisions and mobile phones are on a continuous growth path in their own rights as well. While both computers and mobile phones are incessantly and insatiably adding to their storage capability and processing speed and untiringly searching for new applications, television broadcasting is in a confidant and upbeat mood. It is moving from analog to digital environment all the world over and, in fact, looking much beyond its conventional platforms like terrestrial, cable and DTH. TV is venturing into new modes of distribution such as IP TV, webcasting and mobile phones. Another dimension of technological advancement is that conventional standard definition transmission is poised for replacement by high definition transmission or HDTV which enables viewers to enjoy better picture quality on a wider screen. Also, domestic twenty one inch TV sets are now passé and larger and larger LCD screens are in-things. Such multidirectional growth and development in the TV industry only shows that it is not perceiving any threat to its existence as the prime medium of information and entertainment and looking forward to a bright future for many more years to come. Fourthly, digital revolution will be bringing more and more changes in the programming formats of television. They will be getting more and more interactive. Already, viewers are encouraged to participate in programmes either by giving answer to questions or by casting their votes for their favourite participants in talent hunt shows by using their mobile phones. Some news channels have introduced the concept of citizen journalists according to which viewers are encouraged to shoot news- worthy visuals and send them to channels. With continuous development and up- gradation in digital technology and falling prices of gadgets, this trend will pick up further and there will be more and more creative ideas taking shape in the area of interactive television programming. Long standing divide between directors, performers and technicians on the one hand and audiences on the other will vanish gradually. In fact, it may also be a giant leap in the direction of people empowerment and strengthening of democratic process. Fifthly, besides television, internet is developing in to a great tool of people empowerment and actual realization of constitutional right to freedom of expression. In various democratic countries, though people have this right, it mostly remains on paper due to the fact that an ordinary citizen does not have means to exercise it. Printing and distributing a newspaper or running a TV channel is beyond his means. As a result, media gets monopolized by big IMARC Page 10
  • 11. business houses having means to do so. Internet provides a much cheaper option to an ordinary man to express himself by running his own website. With falling prices of various gadgets and equipments, it will be possible for him to even run his own radio station or TV channel without incurring much expenditure. With increase in broadband and internet penetration in the coming years, this trend will further catch up. Sixthly, with increasing participation of common man in interactive TV programming and more and more use of internet by him for expressing himself, being media savvy will no longer be exclusive preserve of politicians, actors and senior managers only. It will be essential social trait and compulsory personality requisite for every educated person in the coming years. Media production techniques will have to be essential part of curriculum from school level itself. The Indian Future Above trends are only illustrative and indicative and in no way exhaustive. They have applicability to India with certain riders and qualifications. Firstly, while television broadcasting and mobile telephony are fairly developed in India in terms of penetration; broadband and internet lag far behind at this stage. They may remain so in the short and medium term in view of the fact that, despite falling prices, computers are still beyond the reach of large number of people. Also, monthly, broadband connection is yet to become affordable for everyone. Further, unlike telephone or mobile, internet connection at home has still not become a basic need and essential ingredient for day to day life. Moreover, unlike mobile or television, one needs some basic skill for handling computer and internet which even large number of educated people do not have. However, situation will drastically improve in the long run due a strong economic growth, continuous increase in literacy and computer awareness, better and cheaper broadband connectivity and gadgets becoming cheaper and cheaper. Secondly, in view of the above, in the short and medium term, television and mobile phones are likely to be growth drivers in the media sector. Both will be having symbiotic relationship with each other which will be benefiting both the sectors. Television software sector will be getting an alternative platform for distribution of its products which will be a significant factor in driving its growth. It may be mentioned that mobile cannot be a true replacement of television but it will always have an advantage of reaching to out of home captive audiences. Such audiences may have certain specific media requirements like sports, news, interactive programmes or short duration entertainment though some of them may even like to watch films or musical shows while either traveling or during waiting for somebody for a longer period. At some point time, we might have tailor made TV channels specifically catering to mobile users. IMARC Page 11
  • 12. Thirdly, Due to growing symbiotic relationship between TV and mobile there are will be more and more horizontal integrations between mobile and television businesses. ADAG Group owning a mobile network is planning to get into television business in a big way very soon. Airtel, a mobile service provider, is already in DTH television business. This trend will continue. Fourthly, mobile telephones as a medium of advertisement are catching up very fast. Presently, advertisements are mostly in the form of SMS messages. In view of its vast penetration and rolling down of 3G being round the corner, mobile phones will be more and more preferred medium of advertisement. After 3G becoming operational, advertisements are likely to be more attractively packaged in audio-visual format and there is every likelihood of major advertisers giving due weightage to this platform while drawing their future media plans and allocating advertising budget among different media. This sector has all the potentialities to be a major player in the Indian economy as it is not only a sunrise industry in its own right but also a powerful catalyst for the growth of other sectors. Policy makers will have to keep it in mind all the time. IMARC Page 12
  • 13. About IMARC For more than 5 years, the International Market Analysis Research and Consulting Group has been a leading advisor on management strategy and market research worldwide. We partner with clients in all sectors and regions to identify their highest-value opportunities, address their most critical challenges, and transform their businesses. IMARC's information products include major market, scientific, economic and technological developments for business leaders in pharmaceutical, industrial, and high technology organizations. Market forecasts and industry analysis for biotechnology, advanced materials, pharmaceuticals, food and beverage, travel and tourism, nanotechnology and novel processing methods are at the top of the company's expertise. IMARC’s tailored approach combines unfathomable insight into the dynamics of companies and markets with close cooperation at all levels of the client organization. This ensures that our clients achieve unmatchable competitive advantage, build more proficient organizations, and secure lasting results. The author of this white paper is a well known figure in the Indian and British electronic media industry with 36 years of experience in the field. To avail our services in the field of media consultancy and research, please contact sales@imarcgroup.com IMARC Page 13