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Opening Horizons
What kind of new approaches are available?

          Dr. Totti Könnölä, Impetu Solutions


   II Key Note Session, COST Strategic Workshop
   Foresight on Future Demand for Forest-based Products and Services
   13 September 2011, Sekocin Stary/Poland
1.   Transformations
2.   Towards New Foresight Systems
3.   Towards New Methodologies
4.   New Approaches in Practice
5.   Conclusions
1.Transformations
2.   Towards New Foresight Systems
3.   Towards New Methodologies
4.   New Approaches in Practice
5.   Conclusions
Opening Horizons keynote COST Poland 2011
Opening Horizons keynote COST Poland 2011
Opening Horizons keynote COST Poland 2011
• Rarity
• Extreme impact
 • Retrospective
   predictability
Unpredictability vs. Taleb Distribution




                 (Taleb, 2011)


Kurtosis risk (long tail) +
Skewness risk (not evenly distributed)
Pareto Distribution and ‘80/20’ Rule
Twitter followers and Pareto
         distribution
Opening Horizons keynote COST Poland 2011
RESILIENT
SOCIETY?
Structure
1. Transformations

2.Towards New Foresight
  Systems
3. Towards New Methodologies
4. New Approaches in Practice
5. Conclusions
The 4th International Seville Conference on
                                      Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA)

                                                   12 & 13 May 2011




Building FTA capacities for systemic and structural
transformations: New FTA systems For anticipatory action in
a fast-changing world
                             Matthias Weber1, Jennifer Cassingena Harper2,
                                  Totti Könnölä3, Vicente Carabias Barceló4

                      1 AIT Austrian Institute of Technology, Austria;
                      2 Malta Council for Science and Technology, Malta;
                      3 Impetu Solutions, Spain
                      4 Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS), Spain;
FTA capacities for systemic and structural transformations

                  Types of Transformation
                                              Rapid




                                                      Transformation
                                Disruptive
                                                         by design
                             transformation
                                                      (policy shocks)


          Reactive                                                          Deliberate


                                 Ongoing              Transformation
                               processes of              by design
                             transformation             (transition)




                                            Gradual
                                                                        (Weber et al., 2011)
FTA capacities for systemic and structural transformations
   FTA             Disruptive Grand Challenges                       Recognised Grand
                                                                     Challenges
   Rationales      Addressing issues of high societal importance meeting criteria of relevance and
                   feasibility
                   - to identify the right level of specificity for actions;
                   - to build stakeholder engagement in a common vision for action.
   Forms           Early warning systems, scanning for weak          Vision development;
                   signals;                                          Scenario development (alternative
                   Examination of potential impacts                  evidence-based)
   Interactions Internal between scientists;                         Wider participation involving public;
                   Cross-disciplinary between researchers in         Multi-disciplinary;
                   breakthrough areas;                               Global perspective.
                   External – monitoring through expert and open
                   systems.
   Processes       1. Intelligence Mapping by field, sector,         1. Intelligence Mapping by socio-
                   problem, vulnerability, or application;           economic sector(s);
                   2. Political Decision on a Theme;                 2. State of the art analysis of the
                   3. Funding of the Foresight Process;              National Policies and Research
                   4. Scoping and Design: Defining the study and     Capacity;
                   Committee(s) selection;                           3. Production of Foresight Report:
                   5. Production of Foresight Report: Committee      Committee Meetings, Information
                   Meetings, Information gathering, Deliberations    gathering, Deliberations;
                   and Assessments of probability, impact, and       4. Evaluation of the Foresight Report;
                   risks;                                            5. Public Consultation to define the
                   6. Evaluation of the Foresight Report;            most pressing societal problem(s);
                   7. Identification of Disruptive Grand Challenge   6. Identification of Recognised Grand
                   Areas: To lead to further investigation through   Challenge Areas.
                   joint research programs.
   Outcomes        Shared Visions;
                   Large-scale, coordinated responses over time;
                   Joint programming.
FTA capacities for systemic and structural transformations

  Ideal-type models of FTA
FTA capacities for systemic and structural transformations


                Towards New FTA Systems
Structure
1. Transformations
2. Towards New Foresight Systems

3.Towards New Methodologies
4. New Approaches in Practice
5. Conclusions
Addressing the future
                         Long-term notions
                         of the good society

                       Desirable futures




Probable futures                               Possible futures
Likely temporal                                Unrealized but realisitic
development                                    possibilities of problem
of societal problems                                  solutions




                                                       (IPTS, 2009)
Forecasting to predict THE future
• The extrapolation of the most
  probable trend.
   – Big samples
   – Time series
   – Short to medium term
• Limited by the availability and
  quality of the data
• Less suitable for addressing
  issues with little or no historical
  data.
Forecasting & Foresight
  Forecasting
• The extrapolation of the most       • Alternative scenarios of future
  probable trend.                       developments to support
   – Big samples                        decisions
                                         – Quantitative and qualitative
   – Time series
                                         – Participatory
   – Short-term
                                         – Long-term
• Limited by the availability and     • Learning & sense-making, not
  quality of the data                   decision-making process
• Less suitable for addressing        • Credibility gap between those
  issues with little or no historical   taking apart and for those not
  data.
Integration
Web 2.0 for Foresight

                              From traditional to connected research




                 Figure 1: Connected research (Schillewaert et al, 2009).

                                   From respondents to participants

                        From 1-to-1 learning to mutual learning and co-creation
                                                      Web 2.0 for Foresight (Haegeman et al, 2011)
1. Transformations
2. Towards New Foresight Systems
3. Towards New Methodologies

4.New Approaches in Practice
5. Conclusions
The 4th International Seville Conference on
                        Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA)

                                    12 & 13 May 2011




Facing the Future: Scanning, Synthesizing and
     Sense-Making in Horizon Scanning

                 Totti Könnölä1, Ahti Salo2, Cristiano Cagnin3,
                      Vicente Carabias3, and Eeva Vilkkumaa2
                              1Impetu
                                    Solutions, Madrid (Spain)
                       2Aalto University School of Science and

                                  Technology, Espoo (Finland)
                                      3JRC-IPTS, Seville (Spain)
Facing the Future

  Horizon Scanning
         creative process of collective sense-making by way of
Facing the Future

  Key Questions in Horizon Scanning Activities
Facing the Future

  Sense-making in Horizon Scanning
Facing the Future

  Sense-making in Horizon Scanning
Facing the Future

  Sense-making in Horizon Scanning
Facing the Future

  Sense-making in Horizon Scanning
Facing the Future

  Case: Facing the Future (Boden et al., 2010)
Facing the Future

  Case: Facing the Future (Boden et al., 2010)
Facing the Future

  Case: Facing the Future (Boden et al., 2010)
         Identification of 381 Issues in 6 areas
         • (i) 73 demography, migration and health issues
         • (ii) 44 economy, trade and financial flows issues
         • (iii) 90 environment, energy, climate change and agriculture issues
         • (iv) 80 research, innovation and (e)-education issues
         • (v) 52 (e)-governance and (e)-social cohesion issues
         • (vi) 42 defence and security issues

         • by analysing in each area 25 forward-looking reports and policy documents, which
         had been recently published by international organisations or business sector,
         covered more than one of six areas being analysed, exhibited global scope, and had
         been developed using a participatory approach

         Assessment of 381 issues on a seven-point Likert-scale
         • Relevance to EU policy making
         • Novelty in comparison with earlier policy deabates
         • Probability of occurrence by 2025
Facing the Future

  Case: Facing the Future (Boden et al., 2010)
         Analysis of Issues
           Mean-oriented analysis       Rare event oriented analysis    Variance-oriented analysis
           Relevance > Novelty >      Inverse probability > Novelty >     Novelty > Relevance >
            Probability (means)             Relevance (means)             Probability (variance)




              100% issues score best independent of the used criteria preferences
              50% issues that score well, but are sensitive to criteria preferences
Facing the Future

  Case: Facing the Future (Boden et al., 2010)
         Synthesizing Issues
         Experts and policy-makers grouped in a workshop the identified issues into cross-
         cutting challenges and examined their policy implications for the EU.

          Save natural resources (water, food) to prevent conflicts over their scarcity and other impacts such
          as migration
          Area    Issue       Key words from the issue description (optional)
          No.     code
          1       DI04        Massive migration due to climate change
          3       ENV03       Global under-pricing and overconsumption of water
          3       ENV68       Global decline of freshwater availability leading to an increase in water scarcity
          3       ENV70       Global decline in biodiversity and loss of ecosystems services
          6       DS13        Attacks on infrastructure facilities
          6       DS15        A major war by 2020
          6       DS81        Pervasive sensors for real-time surveillance widely diffused


          Table 2 Example of a cross-cutting challenge consisting of issues from all three analyses and from different thematic
          areas (Demography, Environment, and Defence & Security); font styles of issue codes refer to the results obtained in
          the different RPM analyses (http://foresight.jrc.ec.europa.eu/survey_issues.pdf, visited 01/04/2011).
Facing the Future

  Case: Facing the Future (Boden et al., 2010)
         Synthesizing Issues
         Participants generated collectively a diverse set of 22 cross-cutting challenges, which
         were then prioritized by discussing in the light of three solution-oriented criteria
         related to their importance at the EU level:
         - Urgency: Is the challenge likely to provoke impacts that require urgent actions at EU
         level?
         - Tractability: Can solutions to the challenge be identified and implemented? Does
         the EU have the institutional capacity to act upon this challenge?
         - Impact: Are the actions to be taken by the EU expected to have a major global
         positive impact?

         By the end of the workshop, a workable agreement had been reached on the
         definition of the following three overarching challenges:

         (i) The need to change current ways in which essential natural resources are used.
         (ii) The need to anticipate and adapt to societal changes.
         (iii) The need for more effective and transparent governance for the EU and the world.
Facing the Future

  Discussion – Horizon Scanning
Facing the Future

    Conclusions – Horizon Scanning
Opening Horizons keynote COST Poland 2011
Scanning methods




             (FP7 SESTI Project, 2011)
Expert assessments on emerging
             issues




                     (FP7 SESTI Project, 2011)
The 4th International Seville Conference on
                       Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA)

                                   12 & 13 May 2011




Challenge of global foresight: lessons from IMS
      scenario and roadmapping process

                              Cristiano Cagnin & Totti Könnölä

                                     JRC-IPTS & Impetu Solutions
Opening Horizons keynote COST Poland 2011
Business framework to manage change & lead networks towards sustainable development


IMS 2020 plan and process
IMS 2020 scenarios




Desirability and likelihood of each scenario feature to define the IMS vision 2020
IMS 2020 Vision

   Rapid and adaptive user-centred manufacturing which
    leads to customised and 'eternal' life cycle solutions

   Highly flexible and self-organising value chains which
    enable for different ways of organising production
    systems, including related infrastructures, and reduces the
    time between engaging with end users and delivering a
    solution

   Sustainable manufacturing possible due to cultural change
    of individuals and corporations supported by the
    enforcement of rules and a proper regulatory framework
    co-designed between governments, industries and
    societies
IMS Final Roadmap Process




51
The 4th International Seville Conference on
                                 Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA)

                                             12 & 13 May 2011




         Web 2.0 for foresight

Experiences on an Innovation Platform in European Agenda
                         Setting



     1   Karel Haegeman, 1Cristiano Cagnin, 2Totti Könnölä, 3Georgi
                                       Dimitrov and 4Doug Collins
  European Commission (1JRC-IPTS, 3DG EAC), 2Impetu Solutions,
                                                   4Spigit inc.
Web 2.0 for Foresight


                           The case study: EIT-IPTS foresight platform


     Context: What is a Knowledge and Innovation Community (KIC)?
          Main instrument of the EIT
           Highly integrated, creative and excellence-driven innovation partnership bringing together
          education, research and business
           Objectives: increase competitiveness in Europe and tackle societal challenges
           Until now three KICs: Climate KIC, KIC ICTLabs, KIC InnoEnergy
           As part of the Strategic Innovation Agenda (SIA) the EIT will propose priority areas for future
          KICs

     Foresight case:
           Aim: assist EIT to collect, assess and analyse ideas for "world-leading innovation, integrating
          education, business and research with a focus on specific thematic areas”
           Focus on research communities (university researchers, PRO´s and private research)
           Potential to serve as input for the SIA together with other inputs
           Web 2.0 foresight approach
Web 2.0 for Foresight


                        The case study: EIT-IPTS foresight platform

                                    Project roadmap
Structure
1.   Transformations
2.   Towards New Foresight Systems
3.   Towards New Methodologies
4.   New Approaches in Practice

5.Conclusions
Conclusions
Opening Horizons
  What kind of new approaches are available?

   Thank you!
Dr. Totti Könnölä
CEO, Impetu Solutions
Associate Prof., Comillas Pontifical University
Adjunct Prof., IE Business School

Twitter: ImpetuSolutions
Website: www.impetusolutions.com
E-mail: totti.konnola@impetusolutions.com

|Madrid (Spain) | Espoo (Finland)|

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Opening Horizons keynote COST Poland 2011

  • 1. Opening Horizons What kind of new approaches are available? Dr. Totti Könnölä, Impetu Solutions II Key Note Session, COST Strategic Workshop Foresight on Future Demand for Forest-based Products and Services 13 September 2011, Sekocin Stary/Poland
  • 2. 1. Transformations 2. Towards New Foresight Systems 3. Towards New Methodologies 4. New Approaches in Practice 5. Conclusions
  • 3. 1.Transformations 2. Towards New Foresight Systems 3. Towards New Methodologies 4. New Approaches in Practice 5. Conclusions
  • 7. • Rarity • Extreme impact • Retrospective predictability
  • 8. Unpredictability vs. Taleb Distribution (Taleb, 2011) Kurtosis risk (long tail) + Skewness risk (not evenly distributed)
  • 9. Pareto Distribution and ‘80/20’ Rule
  • 10. Twitter followers and Pareto distribution
  • 13. Structure 1. Transformations 2.Towards New Foresight Systems 3. Towards New Methodologies 4. New Approaches in Practice 5. Conclusions
  • 14. The 4th International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) 12 & 13 May 2011 Building FTA capacities for systemic and structural transformations: New FTA systems For anticipatory action in a fast-changing world Matthias Weber1, Jennifer Cassingena Harper2, Totti Könnölä3, Vicente Carabias Barceló4 1 AIT Austrian Institute of Technology, Austria; 2 Malta Council for Science and Technology, Malta; 3 Impetu Solutions, Spain 4 Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS), Spain;
  • 15. FTA capacities for systemic and structural transformations Types of Transformation Rapid Transformation Disruptive by design transformation (policy shocks) Reactive Deliberate Ongoing Transformation processes of by design transformation (transition) Gradual (Weber et al., 2011)
  • 16. FTA capacities for systemic and structural transformations FTA Disruptive Grand Challenges Recognised Grand Challenges Rationales Addressing issues of high societal importance meeting criteria of relevance and feasibility - to identify the right level of specificity for actions; - to build stakeholder engagement in a common vision for action. Forms Early warning systems, scanning for weak Vision development; signals; Scenario development (alternative Examination of potential impacts evidence-based) Interactions Internal between scientists; Wider participation involving public; Cross-disciplinary between researchers in Multi-disciplinary; breakthrough areas; Global perspective. External – monitoring through expert and open systems. Processes 1. Intelligence Mapping by field, sector, 1. Intelligence Mapping by socio- problem, vulnerability, or application; economic sector(s); 2. Political Decision on a Theme; 2. State of the art analysis of the 3. Funding of the Foresight Process; National Policies and Research 4. Scoping and Design: Defining the study and Capacity; Committee(s) selection; 3. Production of Foresight Report: 5. Production of Foresight Report: Committee Committee Meetings, Information Meetings, Information gathering, Deliberations gathering, Deliberations; and Assessments of probability, impact, and 4. Evaluation of the Foresight Report; risks; 5. Public Consultation to define the 6. Evaluation of the Foresight Report; most pressing societal problem(s); 7. Identification of Disruptive Grand Challenge 6. Identification of Recognised Grand Areas: To lead to further investigation through Challenge Areas. joint research programs. Outcomes Shared Visions; Large-scale, coordinated responses over time; Joint programming.
  • 17. FTA capacities for systemic and structural transformations Ideal-type models of FTA
  • 18. FTA capacities for systemic and structural transformations Towards New FTA Systems
  • 19. Structure 1. Transformations 2. Towards New Foresight Systems 3.Towards New Methodologies 4. New Approaches in Practice 5. Conclusions
  • 20. Addressing the future Long-term notions of the good society Desirable futures Probable futures Possible futures Likely temporal Unrealized but realisitic development possibilities of problem of societal problems solutions (IPTS, 2009)
  • 21. Forecasting to predict THE future • The extrapolation of the most probable trend. – Big samples – Time series – Short to medium term • Limited by the availability and quality of the data • Less suitable for addressing issues with little or no historical data.
  • 22. Forecasting & Foresight Forecasting • The extrapolation of the most • Alternative scenarios of future probable trend. developments to support – Big samples decisions – Quantitative and qualitative – Time series – Participatory – Short-term – Long-term • Limited by the availability and • Learning & sense-making, not quality of the data decision-making process • Less suitable for addressing • Credibility gap between those issues with little or no historical taking apart and for those not data.
  • 24. Web 2.0 for Foresight From traditional to connected research Figure 1: Connected research (Schillewaert et al, 2009). From respondents to participants From 1-to-1 learning to mutual learning and co-creation Web 2.0 for Foresight (Haegeman et al, 2011)
  • 25. 1. Transformations 2. Towards New Foresight Systems 3. Towards New Methodologies 4.New Approaches in Practice 5. Conclusions
  • 26. The 4th International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) 12 & 13 May 2011 Facing the Future: Scanning, Synthesizing and Sense-Making in Horizon Scanning Totti Könnölä1, Ahti Salo2, Cristiano Cagnin3, Vicente Carabias3, and Eeva Vilkkumaa2 1Impetu Solutions, Madrid (Spain) 2Aalto University School of Science and Technology, Espoo (Finland) 3JRC-IPTS, Seville (Spain)
  • 27. Facing the Future Horizon Scanning creative process of collective sense-making by way of
  • 28. Facing the Future Key Questions in Horizon Scanning Activities
  • 29. Facing the Future Sense-making in Horizon Scanning
  • 30. Facing the Future Sense-making in Horizon Scanning
  • 31. Facing the Future Sense-making in Horizon Scanning
  • 32. Facing the Future Sense-making in Horizon Scanning
  • 33. Facing the Future Case: Facing the Future (Boden et al., 2010)
  • 34. Facing the Future Case: Facing the Future (Boden et al., 2010)
  • 35. Facing the Future Case: Facing the Future (Boden et al., 2010) Identification of 381 Issues in 6 areas • (i) 73 demography, migration and health issues • (ii) 44 economy, trade and financial flows issues • (iii) 90 environment, energy, climate change and agriculture issues • (iv) 80 research, innovation and (e)-education issues • (v) 52 (e)-governance and (e)-social cohesion issues • (vi) 42 defence and security issues • by analysing in each area 25 forward-looking reports and policy documents, which had been recently published by international organisations or business sector, covered more than one of six areas being analysed, exhibited global scope, and had been developed using a participatory approach Assessment of 381 issues on a seven-point Likert-scale • Relevance to EU policy making • Novelty in comparison with earlier policy deabates • Probability of occurrence by 2025
  • 36. Facing the Future Case: Facing the Future (Boden et al., 2010) Analysis of Issues Mean-oriented analysis Rare event oriented analysis Variance-oriented analysis Relevance > Novelty > Inverse probability > Novelty > Novelty > Relevance > Probability (means) Relevance (means) Probability (variance)  100% issues score best independent of the used criteria preferences  50% issues that score well, but are sensitive to criteria preferences
  • 37. Facing the Future Case: Facing the Future (Boden et al., 2010) Synthesizing Issues Experts and policy-makers grouped in a workshop the identified issues into cross- cutting challenges and examined their policy implications for the EU. Save natural resources (water, food) to prevent conflicts over their scarcity and other impacts such as migration Area Issue Key words from the issue description (optional) No. code 1 DI04 Massive migration due to climate change 3 ENV03 Global under-pricing and overconsumption of water 3 ENV68 Global decline of freshwater availability leading to an increase in water scarcity 3 ENV70 Global decline in biodiversity and loss of ecosystems services 6 DS13 Attacks on infrastructure facilities 6 DS15 A major war by 2020 6 DS81 Pervasive sensors for real-time surveillance widely diffused Table 2 Example of a cross-cutting challenge consisting of issues from all three analyses and from different thematic areas (Demography, Environment, and Defence & Security); font styles of issue codes refer to the results obtained in the different RPM analyses (http://foresight.jrc.ec.europa.eu/survey_issues.pdf, visited 01/04/2011).
  • 38. Facing the Future Case: Facing the Future (Boden et al., 2010) Synthesizing Issues Participants generated collectively a diverse set of 22 cross-cutting challenges, which were then prioritized by discussing in the light of three solution-oriented criteria related to their importance at the EU level: - Urgency: Is the challenge likely to provoke impacts that require urgent actions at EU level? - Tractability: Can solutions to the challenge be identified and implemented? Does the EU have the institutional capacity to act upon this challenge? - Impact: Are the actions to be taken by the EU expected to have a major global positive impact? By the end of the workshop, a workable agreement had been reached on the definition of the following three overarching challenges: (i) The need to change current ways in which essential natural resources are used. (ii) The need to anticipate and adapt to societal changes. (iii) The need for more effective and transparent governance for the EU and the world.
  • 39. Facing the Future Discussion – Horizon Scanning
  • 40. Facing the Future Conclusions – Horizon Scanning
  • 42. Scanning methods (FP7 SESTI Project, 2011)
  • 43. Expert assessments on emerging issues (FP7 SESTI Project, 2011)
  • 44. The 4th International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) 12 & 13 May 2011 Challenge of global foresight: lessons from IMS scenario and roadmapping process Cristiano Cagnin & Totti Könnölä JRC-IPTS & Impetu Solutions
  • 46. Business framework to manage change & lead networks towards sustainable development IMS 2020 plan and process
  • 47. IMS 2020 scenarios Desirability and likelihood of each scenario feature to define the IMS vision 2020
  • 48. IMS 2020 Vision  Rapid and adaptive user-centred manufacturing which leads to customised and 'eternal' life cycle solutions  Highly flexible and self-organising value chains which enable for different ways of organising production systems, including related infrastructures, and reduces the time between engaging with end users and delivering a solution  Sustainable manufacturing possible due to cultural change of individuals and corporations supported by the enforcement of rules and a proper regulatory framework co-designed between governments, industries and societies
  • 49. IMS Final Roadmap Process 51
  • 50. The 4th International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) 12 & 13 May 2011 Web 2.0 for foresight Experiences on an Innovation Platform in European Agenda Setting 1 Karel Haegeman, 1Cristiano Cagnin, 2Totti Könnölä, 3Georgi Dimitrov and 4Doug Collins European Commission (1JRC-IPTS, 3DG EAC), 2Impetu Solutions, 4Spigit inc.
  • 51. Web 2.0 for Foresight The case study: EIT-IPTS foresight platform Context: What is a Knowledge and Innovation Community (KIC)?  Main instrument of the EIT  Highly integrated, creative and excellence-driven innovation partnership bringing together education, research and business  Objectives: increase competitiveness in Europe and tackle societal challenges  Until now three KICs: Climate KIC, KIC ICTLabs, KIC InnoEnergy  As part of the Strategic Innovation Agenda (SIA) the EIT will propose priority areas for future KICs Foresight case:  Aim: assist EIT to collect, assess and analyse ideas for "world-leading innovation, integrating education, business and research with a focus on specific thematic areas”  Focus on research communities (university researchers, PRO´s and private research)  Potential to serve as input for the SIA together with other inputs  Web 2.0 foresight approach
  • 52. Web 2.0 for Foresight The case study: EIT-IPTS foresight platform Project roadmap
  • 53. Structure 1. Transformations 2. Towards New Foresight Systems 3. Towards New Methodologies 4. New Approaches in Practice 5.Conclusions
  • 55. Opening Horizons What kind of new approaches are available? Thank you! Dr. Totti Könnölä CEO, Impetu Solutions Associate Prof., Comillas Pontifical University Adjunct Prof., IE Business School Twitter: ImpetuSolutions Website: www.impetusolutions.com E-mail: totti.konnola@impetusolutions.com |Madrid (Spain) | Espoo (Finland)|