Presented by David Smith for InnoTech Oregon 2011

1. 4/27/2011
What Comes
after the
Cloud?
David Smith
CEO HBMG Inc.
dsmith@HBMGINC.com
Copyright, 2010 © HBMG, Inc
This presentation may not be distributed without permission
Agenda
• High Level – What is
Cloud Computing
• What is Driving the Future
of the Cloud
• Trends for The Future
• Actions for you
Copyright, 2010 ©
HBMG, Inc
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2. 4/27/2011
Computing Evolution
40’s 70’s 80’s Now
•Mobility explosion
•Collaboration
•High level of interconexion between
users
•Web platform growing
•Pressure over companies data centre.
Copyright, 2010 ©
HBMG, Inc
Origin of the term “Cloud Computing”
• “Comes from the early days of the Internet
where we drew the network as a cloud… we
didn’t care where the messages went… the
here ent
cloud hid it from us” – Kevin Marks, Google
• First cloud around networking (TCP/IP
abstraction)
• Second cloud around documents (WWW data
abstraction)
• The emerging cloud abstracts infrastructure
complexities of servers, applications, data, and
heterogeneous platforms
– (“muck” as Amazon’s CEO Jeff Bezos calls it)
Copyright, 2010 © HBMG, Inc
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3. 4/27/2011
Industry Trends Leading to Cloud Computing
A “cloud” is an IT service delivered to users that has:
• A user interface that makes the infrastructure underlying the service
transparent to the user
• Near-zero incremental management costs when additional IT resources are
added
2010
• A service management platform
2000
Cloud Computing
1998
Software as a Service
1990 • Next-Generation
Utility Computing • Network-based Internet
Grid Computing computing
• Offering subscriptions to
• Solving large computing applications
problems with • Next-Generation
resources as a
parallel computing • Gained Data Centers
metered service
momentum in
• Made mainstream • Introduced in late 2001
by Globus Alliance 1990s
Copyright, 2010 © HBMG, Inc
Even as clouds take hold, the IT landscape
is changing rapidly…
Technology is rapidly being
commoditized
Businesses are more
willing and able to shop for
IT services
In-house IT infrastructure is
increasingly seen as
complex and rigid
© Harvard Business Review
Copyright, 2010 © HBMG, Inc
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4. 4/27/2011
Cloud Computing - a Disruptive New
Paradigm
“Clouds will transform the information technology (IT) industry…
profoundly change the way people work and companies operate.”
A “cloud” is an IT service delivered to users that provides:
• Simple user interface that automatically provisions IT 2015
resources
• Capacity on demand with massive scalability
• New application service delivery models Cloud Computing
• Platform for next generation data centers
• Development in the cloud, for the cloud
Software as a Service
1990 Utility Computing
Grid Computing
Copyright, 2010 © HBMG, Inc
Other Definitions
“Cloud computing is an emerging approach to shared
infrastructure in which large pools of systems are
g p y
linked together to provide IT services.”
– IBM press release on “Blue Cloud”
“…a hosted infrastructure model that delivers
abstracted IT resources over the Internet”
– Thomas Weisel Partners LLC from “Into the Clouds: Leveraging Data Centers and the
Road to Cloud Computing”
“Cloud computing describes a systems architecture.
Period.
Period This particular architecture assumes
nothing about the physical location, internal
composition or ownership of its component parts.”
– James Urquhart blog post
Copyright, 2010 © HBMG, Inc
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5. 4/27/2011
Forrester Research
“A pool of abstracted, highly scalable, and
managed compute infrastructure capable of
hosting end-customer applications and billed
by consumption1”
1- “Is Cloud Computing Ready for The Enterprise?” Forrester Research, Inc.
IT Trends enabling (and driven by)
Cloud Computing
Increased Parallelism
New Moore’s Law - 2X processors per chip generation
Parallel software industries emerging to address challenges
Redundant networks and storage increasing performance
Increased Virtualization
Processing, Storage, Bandwidth, Delivery
Commodity Components
X86 servers, consumer hard drives, ethernet
Open Source SW – Freedom to customize and adapt
Increased Outsourcing of Core Elements
“By 2012, 80 percent of Fortune 1000 companies will pay for
some cloud computing service, and 30 percent of them will pay for
cloud computing infrastructure.” Gartner
10
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6. 4/27/2011
Cloud Computing
'Platform as a service' (PaaS) Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS)
Software as a service (SaaS)
Public Clouds
Application-centric
Application centric cloud platforms
Public clouds reduce corporate IT jobs and spend. CIOs
lead the charge. Private clouds become THE strategic
decision for enterprise IT
Private Clouds
enterprise owned or leased
Hybrid cloud
y
composition of two or more clouds
Community cloud
shared infrastructure for specific community
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Cloud Computing Delivery Models
Flexible Delivery Models
Public … Private …
•Access by Service provider
Access b Ser ice pro ider Pi t l d d
•Privately owned and
owned and managed. Cloud Services managed.
•subscription. •Access limited to client
•Delivers select set of and its partner network.
standardized business process, Cloud Computing •Drives efficiency,
application and/or Model standardization and best
infrastructure services on a practices while retaining
flexible price per use basis. greater customization
Hybrid …
and control
•Access to client, partner
network, and third party
resources
.…Standardization, capital .… Customization, efficiency,
preservation, flexibility and availability, resiliency, security
time to deploy and privacy
ORGANIZATION CULTURE GOVERNANCE
...service sourcing and service value
12
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7. 4/27/2011
From http://geekandpoke.typepad.com
Agenda
• High Level – What is Cloud
Computing
C ti
• What is Driving the Future of the
Cloud
• Trends for The Future
• Actions for you
Copyright, 2010 ©
HBMG, Inc
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8. 4/27/2011
What led to actual phase
Terms related to Cloud
Computing
Saas
Iaas
Paas
Widget
Virtualization mash up
SOA
REST
Grid computing:
Hw resources
sharing
h i
Web 2.0
Internet service
Bus
Copyright, 2010 ©
HBMG, Inc
A Crisis of Complexity. The Need for Progress
is Clear.
1.5x
Explosion of
information driving
54% growth in storage
shipments every year.
70¢ per $1
70% on average is spent
on maintaining current IT
infrastructures versus
adding new capabilities.
85% idle
In distributed
computing
environments, up to
85% of computing
capacity sits idle.
70%+ Never
recover
Of business never
recover from a major
Copyright, 2010 © data disaster.
HBMG, Inc
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9. 4/27/2011
Annual Operating Costs Are Out Of
Control
Physical
Spending Server Installed
Worldwide IT Spending on Servers, Power, Cooling Base (Millions)
US$(B) and Management/Administration
$250
50
Power and Cooling Costs 45
4
Server Mgt and Admin Costs
$200 New Server Spending 40
35
$150
30
25
$100 20
15
$50 10
5
$0 0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
IDC
Users Wait Too Long For New
Servers
Requester Requester
Acquire Install & Install &
Submit Deploy
HW & Config. Config
Request Server
SW HW SW
Three to six months to provision a new server!
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HBMG, Inc
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10. 4/27/2011
Growth of Data
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HBMG, Inc
Without cloud computing With cloud computing
Virtualized resources Location
Automated service independent
management Rapid
Standardized scalability
services Self-service
Security Appliances
• Software
• Hardware
• Software • Storage
• Hardware • Networking
• Storage
• Networking
• Software • Storage
• Hardware • Networking
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11. 4/27/2011
Private Clouds 10
Through 2012, IT organizations will invest more on private cloud
services than on external cloud providers.
Reasons for Private Cloud Reasons for Public Cloud
Low barrier to entry Scale on demand
Elastic and scalable Increased agility and flexibility
Lower cost and pay per use Pay
P per use
Increased agility (to Higher compute capacities
customers) Elasticity
Ease of sourcing migrations Time to market
Many cloud benefits —
reduced risks
Copyright, 2010 © HBMG, Inc
This presentation may not be distributed without permission
Agenda
• High Level – What is Cloud
Computing
C ti
• What is Driving the Future of the
Cloud
• Trends for The Future
• Actions for you
Copyright, 2010 ©
HBMG, Inc
11

12. 4/27/2011
Multiple Descriptions of the “Cloud”
Copyright, 2010 ©
HBMG, Inc
Copyright, 2010 ©
HBMG, Inc
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13. 4/27/2011
IT Trends
Ubiquitous
Cloud
Virtualization
Grid Internet Appliances
WEB
Client
Server Network
Punch Mainframe/
Card Midrange
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
HBMG Inc. Copyright
2009
Growth at the Edge of the Network
4,000
3,500
• Mobile
• Device to Device
Petabytes/Day Global
3,000
• Sensors
• Entertainment
2,500 • Smart Home
• Distributed
2,000 Industrial
• Autos/Trucks
1,500 • Smart Toys
Converged
1,000 Content
500 Traditional
Computation
0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Year
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14. 4/27/2011
The Growth Of Complexity
Higher
Technical
Complexity
DOD
weapon
Embedded system
automotive Telecom switch National Air
application Commercial Traffic Control
compiler System
Lower Higher
Management Management
Complexity Large-scale
simulation
Complexity
Small
scientific Enterprise
simulation Enterprise information
application systems DOD
management
information
system
Business
spreadsheet
Lower
Technical
Complexity
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HBMG, Inc
… breakthroughs like these are enabled by Innovation.
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HBMG, Inc
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15. 4/27/2011
Massive Resources are
Virtualized
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110% Growth Last Year
2007 2008 2009 2010
Mobile Web Usage
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16. 4/27/2011
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Ubiquitous Computing
Laptops outsell desktops already
Handheld PCs are gaining market share
g g
Appliances become smart
– Microprocessors in TVs, VCRs, refrigerators,
stoves, etc.
• As the profit margin on basic
hardware gets squeezed out,
smarts are the next competitive
p
area
Even your pet…
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17. 4/27/2011
Clouds and Crowds
Interactive Cloud Analytic Cloud People Cloud
Data Transactional … + Sensors … + Web 2.0
Acquisition
cqu s t o syste s
systems (physical software)
(p ys ca & so t a e)
Data entry
Computation Get and Put Map Reduce … + Collaborative
Parallel DBMS Structures (e.g.,
Stream Processing Mechanical Turk,
Intelligence
Markets)
Data Model Records Numbers, Media … + Text, Media,
Natural Language
Response Seconds Hours/Days … +Continuous
Time
The Future Cloud will be a Hybrid of These.
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HBMG, Inc
Consuming Cloud-Computing Services
Application Infra Appl, Information, or
System Infrastructure
Services Bus Process Services
Services
Client Client Client
A A A
A A A
P
P P P P P
I I I I I I
• Rapid hardware
p • Rapid development,
p p • Rapid application
p pp
provisioning & delegated deployment & change deployment & change
hardware management • Greater vendor lock-in • Maintenance & Security
• Developer responsible for
cloud optimization
Service Consumer Responsibility
Copyright, 2010 © Service Provider Responsibility
HBMG, Inc
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18. 4/27/2011
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HBMG, Inc
Virtualization for Client Computing
Hosted Virtual Desktops
Architectural equivalent of
the blade PC
Full "thick-client" image, Application Application Application
thin-client delivery model PC OS PC OS PC OS
VMM
Server Hardware
Portable Personalities Windows
code
• Carry the bubble, not the Application
settings
data
hardware Containers
temp files
p
• Portable media, stored on DLLs
the network
• Bubbles of various sizes: Target
Windows
some with OS, some without Machine
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19. 4/27/2011
Continuous Improvement of
Input Devices
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HBMG, Inc
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HBMG, Inc
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20. 4/27/2011
Ubiquitous Connectivity
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For the rest of the world, this is
the Internet
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HBMG, Inc
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21. 4/27/2011
AMP: Algorithms, Machines, People
Adaptive/Active
Machine Learningg
and Analytics
Massive
and
Diverse
Data
CrowdSourcing Cloud Computing
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HBMG, Inc
Characteristics of Agents
Agents dynamically adapt Agents coordinate
to and learn about and negotiate to achieve
their environment common goals
Social
Intelligent Adaptive Cooperative Personality Information
Agents Agents
Autonomous Mobile Interoperate
Agents are goal directed Agents interoperate
Agents move
and act on their with humans, other,
to where they
own performing legacy systems, and
are needed
tasks on your behalf information sources
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HBMG, Inc
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22. 4/27/2011
Autonomic Networks
Self-configuring : Self-healing:
Adapt automatically to Discover, diagnose,
the dynamically and react to
changing environments disruptions from
of link and node Self- Self-
Self- Self- catastrophes and
failures. attacks.
Configuring Healing
Self-optimizing: Self- Self-
Self- Self- Self-protecting:
Monitor and tune Anticipate, detect,
resources automatically
Optimizing Protecting identify, and protect
during an attack to against attacks from
minimize its attack anywhere (safety.)
(safety )
during and in the
aftermath.
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HBMG, Inc
Autonomic System Computing
Complex computing systems that manage
themselves
Decreased need for human administrators to
perform lower level tasks
Autonomic properties: Purposeful, Automatic,
Adaptive, Aware
4 properties: self-healing, self-configuration,
self-optimization,
self optimization and self-protection
self protection
IT labor costs are 18 times that of equipment costs.
The number of computers is growing at 38% each year.
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23. 4/27/2011
BIO IMPACT WHEEL
Query by
Storage Content/ Computer Sensing Audio
Type Device Signals
RF Conservation Visual
EM
Optical Acquisition
Multi-Data
Processes Prioritization DNA Pressure
Architecture Emerging
Chemical
Transmission
Links Energy/
Power S.O.C.
Rules Interaction
Optical
Sensor Biological
Awareness Computing
Biological Rejuvenation Types
Storage
Switches Effectors
Devices
Amoeba
Sensors Natural
Selection
Neural Input/
Networks Network Output
Many Tumor
Network BIO
Recovery Architectures Many
Network INSPIRED Solutions
Management
Load and Self
Preservation Socially
Processing
Plants
Network Bio
Security Bio Groups Character- Reproductive
Chips ization
Rights Solution Viral
Friend or Foe Non-
Traditional Bio-
Cognition
Inter- Signal Adaptive Links Optical
connections Ethics Communication
Extension/ Size Natural
Replacement Selection
Biologically of Moore’s Growth
Inspired Law Values Mobility Electrical
Brain Chemical
S.O.C. Function
Dreaming
Neuro Evolution Adaptation
Transmitters Recognition Risk Experience Improvement
Patterns
Uncertainty
Visual Music
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SAAS
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HBMG, Inc C opyrght 2009 © H BM G ,I
i , nc.
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24. 4/27/2011
Major Trends for Software Process
• System of systems is becoming more complex
• Increasing software criticality and need for
dependability
• Increasing emphasis on end users – both
inside and outside the enterprise
• Decreasing value of IT
• Geography doesn’t matter
• The fabric of software and computing is
evolving
• Continuous integration - continuous delivery – group mind
• Increasing software autonomy
• Combination of biology and computing
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HBMG, Inc
Change, Uncertainty, and Complexity
Economic & Financial Virtual Worlds
Technology
Acceleration
Cyber Warfare
Russia - China
Intangible
K-12 Science Capital
& Math Crisis Pandemic
Terrorism Global Talent
Explosion
Offshore
Competition English as 2nd
3 Billion New Demographics
Capitalists
Economic Unions
Flat Wages Regional Economic
End of Moore’s Law
Copyright, 2010 © Dislocation
HBMG, Inc
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25. 4/27/2011
Agenda
• High Level – What is Cloud
Computing
C ti
• What is Driving the Future of the
Cloud
• Trends for The Future
• Actions for you
Copyright, 2010 ©
HBMG, Inc
The “Cloud Pyramid”
Build upon a foundation
Layers equate structure
Building blocks: Infrastructure, Platforms,
Applications
Breadth vs. Niche
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HBMG, Inc
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26. 4/27/2011
The “Cloud Pyramid” Inversed
1000’s of Cloud Applications currently
Handful of Cloud Platforms
Elite group of Cloud Infrastructure providers
# of Marketplace providers
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HBMG, Inc
Ensembles
An ensemble is a pool of like systems that are
managed as a single system
– Scale from a few to many thousands of virtual or physical
nodes
– Reduce management complexity with integrated
virtualization, management, and security software
– Allow workload optimization for maximum performance
and efficiency
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HBMG, Inc
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27. 4/27/2011
Copyright, 2010 ©
HBMG, Inc C opyrght 2009 © H BM G ,I
i , nc.
Where do we go from
here?
Ideas to keep us out of the rain
54
20090909_Vit i i
rualzatonAndC l
oud
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28. 4/27/2011
Cloud Computing
Universal access
Scalable Services
New Application Service Models
Feature Description
Universal access Cloud Computing’s services are ubiquitous – they can be
accessed from workstations and other devices, such as cell
phones
Scalable Services Scale up and scale out. Business Driven Resourcing, Highly
scalable, with infrastructure managing the scaling, not
applications. Cloud computing allows for elasticity, where capital
and operational expenses for resources are only incurred when
p p y
they are needed
New Application Service Supports parallel and persistent services
Models
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Next Generation
Cloud Computing (e.g. “Blue Cloud”)
– The “network becomes the computer”
– Dumb devices ??????
Pervasive Computing
– Monitoring and tracking almost anything
– The Internet is Free
Continuous Services
The Cloud + Pervasive Computing
– Smart buildings
– Sensor nets
– “Invisible computing” or “ubiquitous computing”
– Semantic Interoperability
– Ad hoc networking
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29. 4/27/2011
Dramatic Technological Evolution
Ubiquitous Internet: 100+ million hosts
– Collaboration & resource sharing the norm
Ultra-high-speed networks: 10+ Gb/s
– Global optical networks
Enormous quantities of data: Petabytes
– For an increasing number of communities, gating step is
not collection but analysis
Huge quantities of computing: 100+ Top/s
– Ubiquitous computing via clusters
Moore’s law everywhere: 1000x/decade
– Instruments, detectors, sensors, scanners
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C opyrght 2009 © Inc
i , G ,I
nc.
Action Plan
Today
– Focus on virtualization and green IT for immediate cost and
flexibility benefits.
– Look at storage virtualization, de-duplication and thin provisioning.
– Evaluate Web social software to transform customer/employee
interactions.
– Cloud Appliances will drive value for the company
The Next 18 Months
– Exploit mashups and cloud-based services to address immediate
user needs
needs.
– Begin a plan to use the devices
– Begin to track weak signals and subtle business patterns — from
everywhere.
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30. 4/27/2011
Action Plan
Longer Term
–Public and private cloud services together with new
servers and specialized systems promise to
minimize costs and maximize agility. Devices will
drive most improvements
–Look for opportunities emerging from cloud
computing, social networking and new approaches
to infrastructure.
–The Age of Bio will come into p y InfoTech,
g play. ,
NanoTech and BioTech are building synergies off of
each other.
–Universal computation, connectivity and digital
interoperability is the new standard
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Embeddedness
The Invisible Computer
Embeddedness⎯Digital convergence
technologies will “form the invisible technical
infrastructure for human action⎯analogous
to the visible infrastructure provided by
buildings and cities.”
Embeddedness is driven by cost-effective
computing, Moore’s Law, miniaturization,
ubiquitous communication, and advanced
materials and sensing devices.
t i l d i d i
In 2005, 99% of computing devices sold are
embedded in products and are not apparent
to the product’s user.
Copyright, 2008 © HBMG, Inc.
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31. 4/27/2011
In Parting: Be Paranoid
“Sooner or later, something
fundamental in your business
world will change.”
⎯ Andrew S. Grove, Founder, Intel
“Only the Paranoid Survive”
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HBMG, Inc C opyrght 2009 © H BM G ,I
i , nc.
Thank You.
David Smith
CEO
512.459.2667
512 459 2667
dsmith@hbmginc.com
HBMG Inc.
11211 Taylor Draper Lane
Suite 200
Austin,
Austin TX 78759
http://www.hbmginc.com
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HBMG, Inc
31

32. 4/27/2011
In Parting: Be Paranoid
“Sooner or later, something
fundamental in your business
world will change.”
⎯ Andrew S. Grove, Founder, Intel
“Only the Paranoid Survive”
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HBMG, Inc C opyrght 2009 © H BM G ,I
i , nc.
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