by Andreas Schleicher

1. 1
1
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)
prism of international comparisons
Seeing education through the
Seeing education through the
prism of international comparisons
New skills for a global innovation society
Asia-Pacific Forum
24-26 March 2008
Asia-Pacific Leaders Forum on Secondary Education
New Delhi, 24-26 March 2008
Andreas Schleicher
Head, Indicators and Analysis Division
OECD Directorate for Education

2. 2
2
prism of international comparisons
Seeing education through the
This afternoon
1. A world of change
 How the global talent pool has changed
2. Where we are – and where we can be
 Where secondary schooling stands in terms of
quantity, quality and equity in education
Asia-Pacific Forum
24-26 March 2008
 What the best performing systems show
can be achieved
3. How we can get there
 Some policy levers that emerge from
international comparisons .

3. 3
3
prism of international comparisons
New skills for a global innovation society
Ì The personal computer enabled millions of
Seeing education through the
individuals to become authors of their own
content in digital form
Ì The spread of the Internet and the emergence
of the World Wide Web enabled more people
than ever to be connected and to share their
knowledge
Asia-Pacific Forum
24-26 March 2008
Ì The emergence of flat“ (Thomas Friedman)
„The world is software standards means
that people are able to seamlessly work
together and upload and globalise content

4. 4
4 School completion
A world of change in the global skill supply
prism of international comparisons
Approximated by percentage of persons with high school or equivalent qualfications
Seeing education through the
in the age groups 55-64, 45-55, 45-44 und 25-34 years
%
1
1
3
Asia-Pacific Forum
24-26 March 2008
2
1
7
1. Excluding ISCED 3C short programmes 2. Year of reference 2004
3. Including some ISCED 3C short programmes 3. Year of reference 2003.

5. 5
5
prism of international comparisons
Growth in university-level qualifications
Approximated by the percentage of persons with ISCED 5A/6 qualification
born in the age groups shown below (2005)
Seeing education through the
%
4
1 1
1 4
Asia-Pacific Forum
24-26 March 2008
2
7
1 2 2 2
3 1 1 4
1. Year of reference 2004.
2. Year of reference 2003.

6. 6
6 College-level graduation rates
Percentage of tertiary type A graduates to the population at the typical age of graduation
prism of international comparisons
Seeing education through the
%
Decline of the relative
1 position of the US from
5 1995 to 2005
2
Asia-Pacific Forum
24-26 March 2008

7. 7
7
Rising female participation in university
education explains much of this expansion
prism of international comparisons
Gender difference in university attainment in percentage points
Seeing education through the
Gender difference in
percentage points
Men have higher
attainment
Asia-Pacific Forum
24-26 March 2008
Women have higher
attainment
A8.3

8. 8
8 The effects of the higher education expansion:
A high calibre workforce or the overqualified
prism of international comparisons
crowding out the lesser qualified?
Seeing education through the
“Middle secondary unemployment rate as a ratio of upper secondary unemployment rate
Lower group”
Ì Rising tertiary-degrees have not ledgroup”
The eight countries “Bottom
to an
with modest The nine countries with no or very
“inflation” of the
increases in labour-market value of in tertiary
modest increases
education (0.1% on average)
qualifications.
tertiary education
(2.4% on average)
 In all but three of the 20 countries with available
data, the earnings benefit increased between 1997
and 2003, in Germany, Italy and Hungary by between
20% and 40%
Asia-Pacific Forum
24-26 March 2008
 Growing benefits in many of the countries with the
steepest attainment growth .
“Top group”
The nine countries that expanded
tertiary education fastest in the
1990s (5.9% on average)

9. 9
9 New skills for a global innovation society
Higher skills or lower pay
prism of international comparisons
Seeing education through the
Asia-Pacific Forum
24-26 March 2008
The world is flat (Thomas Friedman)

10. 10
10 Moving targets
Future supply of baseline qualifications
prism of international comparisons
Seeing education through the
14,000,000
12,000,000
10,000,000
8,000,000
2003
Asia-Pacific Forum
24-26 March 2008
6,000,000 2010
2015
4,000,000
2,000,000
0
China EU India US

11. Future supply of high school graduates
11
11prism of international comparisons 14 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0
12 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0
10 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0
8 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0 2003
6 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0 2010
4 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0
2015
Seeing education through the
2 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0
0
China EU India US
Future supply of college graduates
5,000,000
4,500,000
4,000,000
3,500,000
Asia-Pacific Forum
24-26 March 2008
3,000,000
2003
2,500,000
2010
2,000,000
1,500,000
2015
1,000,000
500,000
0
China EU India US

12. Asia-Pacific Forum Seeing education through the
24-26 March 2008 prism of international comparisons 12
12
The world is flat (Thomas Friedman)
New skills for a global innovation society

13. Asia-Pacific Forum Seeing education through the
24-26 March 2008 prism of international comparisons 13
13
Mean task input as percentiles of the 1960 task distribution
(Levy and Murnane)
How the demand for skills has changed
Economy-wide measures of routine and non-routine task input (US)

14. 14
14prism of international comparisons
Seeing education through the
New skills for a global innovation society
What regulates production ?
Agriculture
Laws of nature, seasonal variation
Industry
Asia-Pacific Forum
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Capital, labour, mechanisation, “taylorisation”
Service
Articulation of demand
Knowledge
Complex logistics

15. 15
15prism of international comparisons
Seeing education through the
New skills for a global innovation society
What are ideals for outputs ?
Agriculture
Durability
Industry
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Large volume, uniformity, low costs
Service
Functionality, customised
Knowledge
Flexible production, embedded services

16. 16
16prism of international comparisons
Seeing education through the
New skills for a global innovation society
Who are the progressive producers ?
Agriculture
Family-based farms and co-operatives
Industry
Asia-Pacific Forum
24-26 March 2008
Stock co-operation, single mover, hierarchical
Service
Public sector, networks
Knowledge
Alliances and collaboration, “co-petition”

17. 17
17prism of international comparisons
Seeing education through the
New skills for a global innovation society
What are the key drivers of growth ?
Agriculture
Mechanisation, use of fertilizers, new crops
Industry
Asia-Pacific Forum
24-26 March 2008
Capital, labour, mechanisation, “taylorisation”
Service
Deprivatisation of family functions
Knowledge
Access to knowledge, innovation systems

18. 18
18prism of international comparisons
Seeing education through the
New skills for a global innovation society
What are key occupational profiles ?
Agriculture
Subservient and useful subjects
Industry
Asia-Pacific Forum
24-26 March 2008
Fixed professional identity defined in the national context
Service
Motivated and self-reliant citizens
Knowledge
Risk-taking entrepreneurs, converging and continuously emerging, reshaped
tied to globalising contexts and technological advance

19. 19
19
New skills for a global innovation society
prism of international comparisons
The great collaborators and orchestrators
Seeing education through the
Ì
 The more complex the globalised world becomes,
the more individuals and companies need various
forms of co-ordination and management
Ì The great synthesisers
Conventionally, our approach to problems was
Asia-Pacific Forum
24-26 March 2008

breaking them down into manageable bits and
pieces, today we create value by synthesising
disparate bits together
Ì The great explainers
 The more content we can search and access, the
more important the filters and explainers become

20. 20
20
New skills for a global innovation society
prism of international comparisons
Seeing education through the
Ì The great versatilists
 Specialists generally have deep skills and narrow scope, giving
them expertise that is recognised by peers but not valued
outside their domain
 Generalists have broad scope but shallow skills
 Versatilists apply depth of skill to a progressively widening
scope of situations and experiences, gaining new competencies,
Asia-Pacific Forum
24-26 March 2008
building relationships, and assuming new roles.
 They are capable not only of constantly adapting but also of
constantly learning and growing
Ì The great personalisers
 A revival of interpersonal skills, skills that have atrhophied to
some degree because of the industrial age and the Internet
Ì The great localisers

21. 21
21prism of international comparisons
Seeing education through the
Schooling in the
industrial age:
Educating for
discipline
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The challenges today:
Motivated and self-reliant citizens
Risk-taking entrepreneurs, converging and
continuously emerging professions tied to
globalising contexts and technological
advance

22. 22
PISA
22prism of international comparisons
OECD’s Programme for International Student Assessment
Seeing education through the
looking back at what students were
expected to have learned
…or…
looking ahead to how well they can
Asia-Pacific Forum
24-26 March 2008
extrapolate from what they have learned
and apply their knowledge and skills in
novel settings.
For PISA, the OECD countries chose the latter.

23. 23
23 PISA
OECD’s Programme for International Student Assessment
prism of international comparisons
The real world The mathematical world
Seeing education through the
Making the problem amenable
to mathematical treatment
A model of reality A mathematical
Understanding, model
structuring and
simplifying the
Using relevant
situation
mathematical
A real situation
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24-26 March 2008
tools to solve
the problem
Validating
the results
Real results Mathematical
results
Interpreting
the mathematical results

24. 24
24prism of international comparisons
PISA
OECD’s Programme for International Student Assessment
Seeing education through the
Ì The latest PISA assessment emphasizes science
competencies, defined in terms of an individual’s:
 Scientific knowledge and use of that knowledge to…
… identify scientific issues,
… explain scientific phenomena, and
… draw evidence-based conclusions about science-related issues
Asia-Pacific Forum
24-26 March 2008
 Understanding of the characteristic features of science as a
form of human knowledge and enquiry
 Awareness of how science and technology shape our material,
intellectual and cultural environments
 Willingness to engage with science-related issues
Ì A large proportion of complex open-ended tasks .

25. Asia-Pacific Forum Seeing education through the
24-26 March 2008 prism of international comparisons 25
25
81%
Coverage of world economy 77%
87%
86%
85%
83%
PISA countries in 2001
1998
2009
2006
2003
2000

26. High science performance
26
565
Finland
26 Average performance
of 15-year-olds in
prism of international comparisons
545
science – extrapolate
and apply
Seeing education through the
Hong Kong-China
Chinese Taipei Canada
Estonia Japan
New Zealand
Australia
525
Netherlands
Liechtenstein Korea
Slovenia
United Kingdom Germany
Czech Republic Switzerland
Macao-China Austria
Ireland Belgium
505
Hungary
Sweden
Poland
France Denmark
Iceland Croatia
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24-26 March 2008
United States Latvia
Slovak Republic, Spain, Lithuania
Norway 485
Luxembourg
Russian Federation
Portugal Italy
Greece
465
Israel
445
16 … 18 countries perform below this line 6
Low science performance

27. High science performance
27
565
Finland
27 Average performance
High average performance Highof 15-year-olds in
average performance
prism of international comparisons
Large socio-economic disparities 545
science – extrapolate
High social equity
and apply
Seeing education through the
Hong Kong-China
Chinese Taipei Canada
Estonia Japan
New Zealand
Australia
525
Netherlands
Liechtenstein Korea
Slovenia
United Kingdom Germany
Czech Republic Switzerland
Macao-China Austria
Ireland Belgium
Strong socio- 505
Hungary Socially equitable
economic impact on Sweden distribution of learning
Poland
student performance France Denmark opportunities
Iceland Croatia
Asia-Pacific Forum
24-26 March 2008
United States Latvia
Slovak Republic, Spain, Lithuania
Norway 485
Luxembourg
Russian Federation
Portugal Italy
Greece
465
Low average performance Israel Low average performance
Large socio-economic disparities 445 High social equity
16 6
Low science performance

28. High science performance
28
28 560
Finland
Durchschnittliche
High average performance High average performance
Schülerleistungen im
prism of international comparisons
Large socio-economic disparities High social equity
Bereich Mathematik
Seeing education through the
Hong Kong-China
540
Chinese Taipei Canada
New Zealand Estonai Japan
Australia
Netherlands
Liechtenstein Korea
Slovenia 520
Germany United Kingdom
Czech Republic Switzerland Macao-China
Belgium Austria
Strong socio- Ireland Socially equitable
Hungary
economic impact on Sweden distribution of learning
500
student performance Poland
Denmark opportunities
France
Asia-Pacific Forum
24-26 March 2008
Croatia
United States Latvia Iceland
Slovak Republic Lithuania Spain Norway
Luxembourg
480
Russian Federation
Portugal Italy
Greece
460
Low average performance Low average performance
Israel
Large socio-economic disparities High social equity
440
22 Low science performance
12 2

29. 29
29prism of international comparisons
Top and bottom performers in science
These students can consistently identify,
explain and apply scientific knowledge, link
Seeing education through the
different information sources and
explanations and use evidence from these to
justify decisions, demonstrate advanced
scientific thinking in unfamiliar situations…
These students often confuse key
features of a scientific
investigation, apply incorrect
information, mix personal beliefs
with facts in support of a position…
Asia-Pacific Forum
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Large proportion of top performers Large prop. of poor perf.

30. Increased likelihood of postsec. particip. at age 19
30 30
associated with reading proficiency at age 15 (Canada)
prism of international comparisons
after accounting for school engagement, gender, mother tongue,
Seeing education through the
place of residence, parental, education and family income
(reference group Level 1)
20
18
16
14
12
Asia-Pacific Forum
24-26 March 2008
10
8
6
4
2
0
Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 5

31. Asia-Pacific Forum Seeing education through the
24-26 March 2008 prism of international comparisons 31
31
Top performers matter
Excellence in education and countries’ research intensity

32. 32
32prism of international comparisons
High ambitions
Seeing education through the
and universal standards
Asia-Pacific Forum
24-26 March 2008
Access to best practice
and quality professional
development

33. 33
33 School principals’ perceptions of parents’ expectations
Percentage of students in schools where the principal reported that regarding high academic
prism of international comparisons
standards
Seeing education through the
Asia-Pacific Forum
24-26 March 2008

34. 34
34prism of international comparisons
High ambitions
Seeing education through the
Devolved
responsibility,
the school as the
centre of action
Accountability
Asia-Pacific Forum
24-26 March 2008
and intervention in
inverse proportion to
success
Access to best practice
and quality professional
development

35. School autonomy, standards-based
35
35prism of international comparisons
examinations and science performance
School autonomy in selecting teachers for hire
Seeing education through the
PISA score
in science
Asia-Pacific Forum
24-26 March 2008

36. 36
36
Public and private schools
Government schools
Observed performance difference
Government dependent private
prism of international comparisons
Government independent private Difference after accounting for socio-economic background of students and schools
Seeing education through the
% 0 20 40 60 80 -150
100 -100 -50 0 50 100
Score point difference
Luxembourg
Japan
Italy
Switzerland
Finland
Denmark
Czech Republic
Sweden
Hungary
Austria
Public schools
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24-26 March 2008
Private schools
Portugal perform better
perform better
United States
Netherlands
Slovak Republic
Korea
Ireland
Spain
Canada
Mexico
New Zealand
Germany
OECD
United Kingdom

37. Pooled international dataset, effects of selected school/
37
37prism of international comparisons
system factors on science performance after accounting
for all other factors in the model
Seeing education through the
School principal’s positive
evaluation of quality of
64% of US students in Schools with more
educational materials
schools that compete with competing schools
(gross only)
more than 2 schools in same (gross only)
Schools with greater
area, 11% with one school,
autonomy (resources)
26% with no school
(gross and net)
School activities to
promote sciencehour of
One additional learning
self-study or homework
(gross and net)
One additional hour of
(gross and net)
science learning at school
91% of US students in School resultsnet)
(gross and posted
Asia-Pacific Forum
24-26 March 2008
schools posting achievement publicly (grossselective
Academically and net)
data publicly (OECD 38%) schools (gross and net) but
no system-wide effect
26% of US students in Schools practicing ability
schools with no vacant One additional hour of
grouping (gross and net)
science teaching positions Each additionallessons
out-of-school 10% of
School principal’s
(gross funding
public and net)
(OECD 38%), 71% where perception that lack of
all vacant positions had (gross only) Effect after accounting
qualified teachers
been filled (OECD 59%), for the socio-economic
BUT 20% where principals Measured effect hinders instruction
(gross only) background of students,
report that instruction is schools and countries
hindered by a lack of
qualified science teachers
OECD (2007), PISA 2006 – Science Competencies from Tomorrow’s World, Table 6.1a

38. 38
38prism of international comparisons
Strong ambitions
Seeing education through the
Devolved
Integrated
responsibility,
educational
the school as the centre
opportunities
of action
From prescribed
Accountability forms of teaching and
Asia-Pacific Forum
24-26 March 2008
assessment towards
personalised learning
Access to best practice
and quality professional
development

39. High science performance
39
39
560 Durchschnittliche
Finland
High average performance High average performance
Schülerleistungen im
prism of international comparisons
Large socio-economic disparities High social equity
Bereich Mathematik
Seeing education through the
540
Canada
New Zealand Japan
Netherlands Australia
520
Korea
Germany United Kingdom
Czech Republic
Belgium Austria Switzerland
Ireland
Strong socio- Hungary Socially equitable
Sweden
economic impact on 500
Poland distribution of learning
student performance France Denmark opportunities
United States Spain Iceland
Asia-Pacific Forum
24-26 March 2008
Slovak Republic Norway
Luxembourg
480
Portugal Greece Italy
460
Early selection and
institutional differentiation
Low average performance Low average performance
High degree of stratification
440
Largedegree of stratification
Low socio-economic disparities High social equity
Low science performance

40. 40
40prism of international comparisons
High ambitions
Seeing education through the
Devolved
Integrated
responsibility,
educational
the school as the centre
opportunities
of action
Accountability
Personalised
Asia-Pacific Forum
24-26 March 2008
and intervention in
inverse proportion to learning
success
Access to best practice
and quality professional
development

41. 41
41prism of international comparisons
Some challenges
Autonomy Control
Seeing education through the
Ì Greater discretion for Ì Strengthened central
schools in establishing control on standard-
the learning environment setting, assessment,
and managing resources accountability
Ì Expecting innovative and Ì Pressure to conform to
Asia-Pacific Forum
24-26 March 2008
flexible learning precise, standardised
organisations outcomes, and to contain
risks .

42. 42
42prism of international comparisons
Some challenges
Individual approaches Collective aspirations
Seeing education through the
Ì Individualising learning, Ì Learning through
increasing complexity of interaction
pathways
Ì Individual-based Ì Success depends
assessment and
Asia-Pacific Forum
24-26 March 2008
increasingly on
certification interpersonal
competencies
Ì Diversifying education Ì Securing equality in
providers and provision opportunities .

43. 43
43prism of international comparisons
Seeing education through the
Some challenges
Expected functions Recognised outcomes
Ì Growing expectations on Ì The terms in which
schools that extend far schools are judged are
beyond cognitive learning increasingly focussed on
their success in
Asia-Pacific Forum
24-26 March 2008
purveying cognitive
knowledge .

44. 44
44prism of international comparisons
Some challenges
Strong opinions Widespread ignorance
Seeing education through the
Ì Positive views of Ì Negative opinions about
educational experiences the state of education in
in the personal/local general on the basis of
context far less knowledge
Many views about what Limited transparancy of
Asia-Pacific Forum
24-26 March 2008
Ì Ì
takes place inside educational goals and
classrooms based on processes .
idiosyncratic
experiences

45. Creating a knowledge-rich profession in which schools and
45 45 teachers have the authority to act, the necessary knowledge to
do so wisely, and access to effective support systems
prism of international comparisons
The future of education
Seeing education through the
systems is “knowledge rich”
Informed Informed professional
prescription judgement, the teacher as
a “knowledge worker”
National Professional
Asia-Pacific Forum
24-26 March 2008
prescription judgement
Uninformed Uninformed professional
prescription, teachers judgement, teachers
implement curricula working in isolation
The tradition of
education systems has
been “knowledge poor”

46. 46
46prism of international comparisons
Why care?
Ì Progress
Seeing education through the
 Concerns about skill barriers to economic growth,
productivity growth and rates of technological
innovation
– One additional year of education equals
to between 3 and 6% of GDP
– Rising college-level qualifications seem generally not to
have led to an “inflation” of the labour-market value of
qualifications (in all but three of the 20 countries with available data,
Asia-Pacific Forum
24-26 March 2008
the earnings benefit increased between 1997 and 2003, in Germany, Italy
and Hungary by between 20% and 40%)
Ì Fairness
 Concerns about the role of skills in creating social
inequity in economic outcomes
– Both average and distribution of skill matter
to long-term growth
Ì Value for money

47. 47
47 A second chance?
Expected hours in non-formal job-related training (2003)
prism of international comparisons
This chart shows the expected number of hours in non-formal job-related education
Seeing education through the
and training, over a forty year period, for 25-to-64 year olds.
1400
All levels of education
Lower secondary education
%
1200 Upper secondary and post-secondary non-tertiary education
Tertiary education
1000
800
600
Asia-Pacific Forum
24-26 March 2008
400
200
0
United States
United Kingdom
Netherlands
Greece
Sweden
Luxembourg
Belgium
Austria
Denmark
Portugal
Switzerland
Germany
Czech Republic
France
Spain
Hungary
Ireland
Canada
Finland
Poland
Italy
Slovak Republic
C5.1a

48. 48
48prism of international comparisons
www.oecd.org; www.pisa.oecd.org
Seeing education through the

– All national and international publications
– The complete micro-level database
 email: pisa@oecd.org
 Thank you !
Andreas.Schleicher@OECD.org
Asia-Pacific Forum
24-26 March 2008
… and remember:
Without data, you are just another person with an
opinion