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IEA-Energy Technology Model
1.
IEA Energy Technology
Model Energy Technology Perspectives 2010 © OECD/IEA - 2011
2.
Energy Technology
Perspectives project ENERGY IEA flagship project on energy TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES technology, complementing the 2010 Scenarios & WEO Provides impartial advice to Strategies to 2050 decision makers on energy technology policy Main output is Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP) publication – released every two years Input to high-level inter- governmental discussions © OECD/IEA - 2011
3.
ETP Scenarios
Baseline scenario: ENERGY TECHNOLOGY Following the World Energy Outlook 2009 PERSPECTIVES Reference Scenario 2010 World GDP grows by factor 2.75 between Scenarios & Strategies 2007 and 2050 to 2050 Energy prices: Oil USD 120/bbl in 2050, Coal USD 115/tonne BLUE scenario: 50% reduction of energy related CO2 emissions by 2050 compared to 2005 Options with marginal reductions of up to USD 175/t CO2 are needed Due to uncertainties number of variants being considered © OECD/IEA - 2011
4.
Key messages from
scenarios The Baseline scenario is unsustainable ENERGY TECHNOLOGY – environmentally, economically, PERSPECTIVES socially 2010 Widespread deployment of low carbon Scenarios & Strategies technologies (costs < USD 175/tCO2) to 2050 needed to halve CO2 emissions by 2050 Improved energy efficiency and decarbonising electricity are key New technologies needed after 2030 Shares of biomass and electricity increase Urgent action required – emissions must peak by around 2020 Non-OECD countries also need to cut emissions below current levels © OECD/IEA - 2011
5.
World: CO2 emissions
60 ENERGY Gt CO2 TECHNOLOGY 50 PERSPECTIVES Other 2010 40 Buildings Scenarios & Transport Strategies 30 to 2050 Industry 20 Other transformation Power generation 10 0 2007 2030 2050 2030 2050 Baseline BLUE Map • Global emissions double by 2050 in Baseline • 50% reduction in 2050 on 2005 levels in BLUE, equivalent to 75% reduction from 2050 Baseline © OECD/IEA - 2011
6.
Key technologies for
reducing global CO2 emissions under the BLUE Map scenario ENERGY 60 TECHNOLOGY Gt CO2 Baseline emissions 57 Gt CCS 19% PERSPECTIVES 55 2010 50 Renewables 17% 45 Scenarios & Nuclear 6% Strategies 40 to 2050 35 Power generation efficiency and 30 fuel switching 5% 25 End-use fuel switching 15% 20 End-use fuel and electricity 15 efficiency 38% BLUE Map emissions 14 Gt 10 5 WEO 2009 450 ppm case ETP2010 analysis 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 A wide range of technologies will be necessary to reduce energy-related CO2 emissions substantially. © OECD/IEA - 2011
7.
Modelling the Buildings
Sector ENERGY Model for buildings sector TECHNOLOGY developed for ETP 2006 PERSPECTIVES 2010 Regional model, but model Scenarios & Strategies large countries separately to 2050 Bottom-up approach, focusing on end-uses, includes stock models Very data intensive Continuously working to improve understanding of global building stock and energy consumption by end- use © OECD/IEA - 2011
8.
Energy consumption by
fuel and by scenario ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES 2010 Scenarios & Strategies to 2050 Energy consumption in the building sector is 5% higher in 2050 than in 2007 in the BLUE Map Scenario. © OECD/IEA - 2011
9.
Energy consumption by
fuel, by scenario and region ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES 2010 Scenarios & Strategies to 2050 OECD regions reduce energy consumption below 2007 levels in the BLUE Map scenario by 2050. © OECD/IEA - 2011
10.
Energy savings by
sector and by end use, 2050 ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES 2010 Scenarios & Strategies to 2050 Two-thirds of the energy savings in the BLUE map scenario come from the residential sector. © OECD/IEA - 2011
11.
BLUE Map results
for Buildings: CO2 emissions ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES 2010 Scenarios & Strategies to 2050 In the BLUE Map scenario, buildings sector CO2 emissions in 2050 are 83% lower than in the © OECD/IEA - 2011 Baseline scenario.
12.
BLUE Map results
for Buildings: CO2 emissions ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES 2010 Scenarios & Strategies to 2050 Improvements in the building shell and energy savings in electrical end-uses dominate total CO2 © OECD/IEA - 2011 reductions in the BLUE Map scenario.
13.
Key Technologies for
the Buildings Sector in BLUE Map Tighter building standards and codes ENERGY TECHNOLOGY for new residential and commercial PERSPECTIVES buildings 2010 Large-scale refurbishment of residential Scenarios & Strategies buildings in the OECD to 2050 Highly efficient heating, cooling and ventilation systems Improved lighting efficiency Improved appliance efficiency The widespread deployment of CO2-free technologies. Including the widespread deployment of solar thermal, bioenergy, heat pumps, and fuel cell CHP. Cross-cutting technologies: thermal energy storage and importance of future proofing for smart grid © OECD/IEA - 2011
14.
Key Messages
Baseline scenario: CO2 emissions grow from ENERGY 8.1 gigatonnes (Gt) of CO2 to 15.2 Gt CO2 in TECHNOLOGY 2050 PERSPECTIVES 2010 BLUE Map scenario reduces this by 83% in 2050 Decarbonisation of electricity reduces emissions by Scenarios & Strategies 6.8 Gt CO2) to 2050 Buildings are the key to low-cost CO2 abatement scenarios Energy efficiency and switch to low- and zero-carbon technologies reduces emissions by 5.8 Gt CO2 Very different challenges in OECD and non- OECD Most of the technology solutions are available today and are generally mature, but more R&D needed However, uptake is far from optimal from an economic or environmental perspective Strong policy action is required © OECD/IEA - 2011
15.
Next steps
ENERGY Model update – ETP 2012 TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES Expand regional coverage of the 2010 buildings sector Scenarios & Strategies to 2050 Expand the time horizon to 2075 Increase technological specificities E.g. include hydrogen fuel-cell; solar space cooling; etc. Refine stock accounting models Better tracking of appliance stock Update data with most up-to-date information Including the newly released World Energy Outlook © OECD/IEA - 2011
16.
ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES
2010 Scenarios & Strategies to 2050 Thank you © OECD/IEA - 2011
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