Lew Fulton presents IEA's transport projections over the short, medium and long term at the World Biofuels Markets 2012 conference in Rotterdam, 14 March.
Among other points, Lew demonstrates that even with a maximum contribution from electric and hydrogen fuel cell cars and trucks, and huge efficiency improvements across all types of vehicles, the liquid fuel demand in 2050 is likely to be at least as big as today's (focused mainly in trucks, ships and aircraft).
Biofuels are the only other major option for cutting CO2 emissions in transport, so it is imperative that we find ways to move toward large volume production of advanced, sustainable biofuels. If we can't do it, it means the transport sector may continue to rely heavily on oil, emitting large amounts of CO2, in 2050.
Lew Fulton
International Energy Agency
World Biofuels Markets
Rotterdam, 14 March 2012
3. Global Biofuel Production – Medium-Term Outlook
World: Total Biofuels Demand
mb/d Global Biofuels Supply
m b/d Adjusted for Energy Content
2.8
1.8 2.0%
2.4
1.7
2.0
1.6 1.8%
1.6 1.5
1.2 1.4 1.6%
0.8 1.3
0.4 1.2 1.4%
0.0 1.1
1.0 1.2%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
US Biofuels Brazil Biofuels
OECD Europe Biofuels Rest of Global Biofuels
Biofuels Share of Total Dem and
• Global biofuels production rises from 1.8 mb/d (105 billion L) in
2010 to 2.3 mb/d (135 billion L) in 2016
– A total increase of 0.5 mb/d…
– …equivalent to an average yearly growth of 4.3% or 90 kb/d
• On an energy adjusted basis versus oil, biofuels supply increases
from 1.3 mb/d (2.4 EJ) in 2010 to 1.7 mb/d (3.4 EJ) in 2016
– Energy adjusted supply growth to meet 9% of gasoline and gasoil
growth, with ethanol at 24% of gasoline growth and biodiesel at 4%
of gasoil growth
– Yet, in 2016, biofuels satisfy only 1.8% of total global demand
Here you see the very strong rates of change in the sales of advanced vehicles in BLUE Map. From today, we rapidly ramp up EV and PHEV sales. From about 2020 we start sales of fuel cell vehicles. By 2050 there are very few conventional ICE vehicles being sold anywhere in the world.
The IEA Biofuel Roadmap has been developed as part of a series of Technology Roadmaps that look in more detail at the required steps to deploy certain low-carbon technologies, and achieve the emission reductions envisioned in the BLUE Map Scenario. The initial set includes 19 Technology Roadmaps, of which 10 have already been published. Several roadmaps deal with renewable energy technologies, of which the Wind , Solar Photovoltaic , and the Concentrated Solar Power Roadmap have already been published. In 2 weeks a Geothermal Roadmap will be launched, and a roadmap on Solar Heating and Cooling , and Bioenergy for Heat and Power are currently being developed. The roadmaps take a long-term view, but highlight in particular the key actions that need to be taken by different stakeholders in the next 5-10 years. This is because the actions undertaken within the next decade will be critical to get currently pre-commercial low-carbon energy technologies to a commercial stage and achieve the long-term emission reductions required to mitigate Climate Change. The importance of short-term action to deploy low-carbon energy technologies has just been underlined by a new IEA analysis published yesterday. The analysis shows for instance that in the power sector, existing plants together with those under construction lead to a lock-in of CO2 emissions as they will be operating for some decades. It is thus crucial to build up low-carbon energy supply today!
This figure, which is based on existing announcements from press reports and other sources for EV and PHEV sales and stock targets, shows that sales could reach 7 million (Korea just announced a target of 1 million vehicles by 2020). The Electric Vehicles Initiative could establish an ongoing tracking system of this and other important indicators, working with countries and other stakeholders, and IEA is ready to take lead on this task . The announcements are very encouraging and if we can reach this 2020 sales shown here, we would be well positioned to reach the ETP BLUE Map CO2 reduction targets for LDVs, which reflects a similar rate of ramp-up. In BLUE Map, sales of Evs, PHEVs, and FCVs reaches over 100 million per year by 2050, with close to 1 billion on the road in that year.
Animated slide: First you will see cost ranges of conventional biofuels. After a click the cost ranges of advanced biofuels will appear. As you can see, biofuel production cost development is not 100% certain and costs might vary somewhat between different regions. The ranges in production costs shown on this slide are resulting from different model assumptions. The most important factor that influences the lower and the upper end of the cost assumptions is the link between rising oil prices and feedstock capital costs. The lower costs reflect a very weak link, whereas the higher-costs are resulting from a stronger link with rises in oil prices influencing feedstock costs by 20% and also driving up capital costs. Based on the expected production costs, the total expenditure on biofuels in the Biofuel Roadmap is estimated between USD 11-13 trillion, which translates into a share of 11-12% of total spendings on transport fuels during the next 40 years (i.e. including diesel, gasoline, CNG, electricity etc.). The important issue, however, is to look at the marginal costs of biofuel use compared to diesel/gasoline use. This is only in the range of +/- 1% of total expenditure on transport fuels over the next 40 years, and thus is more or less lost in the noise. The key policy measure to achieve the envisioned cost reductions will be to provide support for the first commercial-scale advanced biofuel production units, which is a critical step towards getting to an economy of scale. In the longer-term, technology specific economic incentives can then be phased out.