The document summarizes a presentation given at the Cars of Tomorrow Conference in Melbourne, Australia on March 14, 2012 about promoting low emission vehicles. It discusses the global context of rising oil demand and transport's role. It then outlines the need to cut CO2 emissions 50% by 2050 according to IEA models, requiring a transportation revolution including more electric vehicles. Specific policies and initiatives discussed include fuel economy standards, France's bonus-malus program, the Electric Vehicles Initiative of 14 countries, and demonstration projects in cities like Berlin, Amsterdam, and Stockholm.

1. The Cars of Tomorrow Conference
Melbourne, Australia, 14 March 2012
Promoting the uptake of
Low Emission Vehicles (LEVs)
Tali Trigg
Energy Technology Policy Division
www.iea.org
© OECD/IEA 2010

2. GLOBAL CONTEXT
www.iea.org
© OECD/IEA 2010

3. The future of oil will be driven
by transport
Change in primary oil demand in the New Policies Scenario, 2009-2035
OECD
Transport
China
Industry
Other non-OECD
Buildings and
Inter-regional (bunkers)
agriculture
Other
-5 0 5 10 15 20
mb/d
All of the growth in oil use comes from non-OECD countries, mainly for
transport, more than offsetting declines in the OECD in all sectors
© OECD/IEA 2010

4. The IEA Energy Technology Perspectives
calls for CO2 cuts to 50% below 2009
levels by 2050 (25% for transport)
 To achieve this, we need a global energy technology revolution
to meet climate change and energy security challenges.
 A key part of this will be a revolution in transport to new
technology vehicles and new fuels
 Some early signs of progress, but much more needs to be done.
 How fast can we ramp up sales of low emission vehicles?
 What infrastructure will be needed, by when?
 What policies are needed?
 What is the role of national governments, municipal
governments, electric utilities, auto makers and others?
© OECD/IEA 2010

5. Transport GHG emission wedges
(well-to-wheel CO2-eq)
Baseline
Worldwide, GHGs increase from 7 to over 16 Gt in the
Baseline in 2050 and to over 19 Gt in the High Baseline.
The combination of technology changes and modal shift
yields a reduction to about 5 Gt in BLUE Map/Shifts.
© OECD/IEA 2010

6. Passenger LDV sales by technology type and
scenario: BLUE Map will be VERY challenging
Million sales / year
In the ETP Baseline, sales are mainly conventional vehicles
through 2050; hybrids reach about 20% of sales
In BLUE Map, strong penetration of hybrids by 2015, PHEVs
and EVs by 2020, FCVs after 2025. By 2050, plug-in vehicles
account for more than two-thirds of all sales.
© OECD/IEA 2010

7. CNG-powered trucks & buses could
help reduce oil needs for transport
Oil savings from use of natural gas in road transport by region in the
New Policies Scenario
Latin America 2009
OECD North America 2035
Other Asia
India
Middle East
China
OECD Europe
E. Europe/Eurasia
OECD Pacific
Africa
0 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25
mb/d
Global CNG use, mainly in trucks & buses, triples between 2008 & 2035
to over 60 bcm, saving more than 1 mb/d by 2035
© OECD/IEA 2010

8. NGVs: Current status of top 10 countries
Country Number Market Number of Market share Share in
of NGV share stations road fuel domestic gas
(%) consumption consumption
(%) (%)
1 Pakistan 2,250,100 32 3,000 15 13
2 Argentina 1,813,777 23 1,851 18 7
3 Iran 1,734,431 14 1,058 2 0
4 Brazil 1,631,173 11 1,777 4 10
5 India 700,000 4 181 3 1
6 Italy 587,577 2 690 1 1
7 China 500,000 1 1,453 0 2
8 Colombia 299,640 23 485 5 5
9 Ukraine 200,019 2 91 1 1
10 Bangladesh 200,000 51 500 n/a 2
© OECD/IEA 2010 Source: IANGV, NGVA Europe, NGV Communications Group, IEA

9. Electric and Advanced Vehicles
 IEA believes these will have to play a major
role in reaching low CO2 levels, especially after
2020…
 … but fuel economy is the low-hanging fruit
 Sales of LEVs ramp-up must begin now in order
to reach long term targets
 Battery costs and characteristics remain the
key technical issue, but for how long?
 Will we need fuel cell vehicles, H2?
 This may also depend on batteries
© OECD/IEA 2010

10. GHG intensity of electricity production
By 2050, world electricity generation radically
decarbonised in ETP BLUE Map – but not in Baseline.
© OECD/IEA 2010

11. Australian CO2 intensity of electricity
production 1(2)
In the 4 degree scenario (4DS) PHEVs perform well in the near-
term, but can only reach their full potential by 2050 if the
electricity sector is decarbonised.
© OECD/IEA 2010

12. Australian CO2 intensity of electricity
production 2(2)
In the 2 degree scenario (2DS) PHEVs and EVs offer
significant CO2 reduction potential earlier compared to 4DS.
© OECD/IEA 2010

13. Fuel Economy Initiatives
www.iea.org
© OECD/IEA 2010

14. The Global Fuel Economy Initiative (GFEI)
 Launched on 4 March 2009 in Geneva by IEA, ITF, UNEP, and the FIA
Foundation
 GOAL: reduction in vehicle fuel consumption per km of 50% by 2050 (for
the vehicle stock) compared to 2005
 Roughly equivalent to a 50% reduction by 2030 for new sales, worldwide
 Requires an average improvement 3% per year for 25 years!
 Four main activity areas:
 Analysis of global fuel economy trends and potential
 Outreach to governments, assistance in policy development
 Outreach to stakeholders, dialogue to improve coordination
 Information campaigns
© OECD/IEA 2010

15. GFEI Analysis
The global average was about 8 L/100km in
2005. It improved to below 7.7 in 2008. But
the rate of change was well less than that
needed to hit GFEI targets.
Annual Change
2005 2008
2005-2008
Global
Fuel 8.04 7.65 -1.6%
Average
Economy
(lge/100km) GFEI
8.04 4.02 -2.7%
Objective
Required
2005 2030 Annual Change
2005-2030
© OECD/IEA 2010

16. France’s “Bonus/Malus”
 Since 2006, car labeling for new
vehicles is compulsory at
dealerships
 Label value based on NEDC
test cycle fuel economy
 Political commitment after the
« Grenelle de
l’environnement »
 French OEMs good at small
diesel cars
© OECD/IEA 2010

17. The original Bonus/Malus
 It was announced in Sept 2007, to start in
January 2008, designed to be revenue neutral
 -5gCO2/km every 2 years
 Special Bonus for hybrids and LPG : 2000 €
(If under 110 gCO2/km)
CO2, g/km Barème, €
>250 2600
De 201 à 250 1600
Malus
De 166 à 200 750
De 161 à 165 200
De 131 à 160 0
De 121 à 130 200
De 101 à 120 700
Bonus
De 61 à 100 1000
<60 5000
© OECD/IEA 2010

18. Introduction of
Impact on sales bonus/malus
Jan 2008
 Immediate and lasting
© OECD/IEA 2010

19. Bonus/Malus conclusions
 Bonus/Malus had an immediate and
substantial effect on consumer purchase
behavior (was not considered a new tax)
 Information (labels) was already well installed
 Mid term visibility of feebate evolution great
asset for OEMs; better product planning
 Economic neutrality difficult to reach: design
prior to feebate launch key to success
 France has Europe’s most efficient new vehicle
fleet (2009) as number of vehicle models
meeting the standards steadily increased
© OECD/IEA 2010

20. International Cooperation:
Electric Vehicles Initiative (EVI)
www.iea.org
© OECD/IEA 2010

21. Electric Vehicles Initiative
 Initiative announced at the Clean Energy Ministerial in
Washington DC, July 2010
 Kick-off meeting was held in Paris 29 Sept/1 Oct 2010
 14 countries: China, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, India,
Japan, Netherlands, Portugal, South Africa, Spain, Sweden,
United Kingdom, United States
 Together these countries account for about 80% of world’s
vehicle demand, probably most of EV sales in coming years
 International Energy Agency serves in a facilitator role
 Three primary objectives:
 Common data collection/analysis efforts
 Greater RD&D collaboration
 City forum that links cities within EVI countries (e.g., City
Casebook)
 Recent events: Pilot Cities conference in Shanghai, April 2011
 Upcoming Event: EVI Meeting in Los Angeles, May 2012
© OECD/IEA 2010

22. Projected electric and plug-in hybrid vehicle sales
through 2020, based on national targets
Figure based on announced national sales and stock targets, with assumed 20%
annual sales growth after target is met, if target is before 2020 (e.g. China’s
target is for end of 2011).
© OECD/IEA 2010

23. Projected electric and plug-in hybrid vehicle stock
(cumulative sales) through 2020, based on
national targets
Figure based on announced national sales and stock targets, with assumed 20% annual sales
growth after target is met, if target is before 2020 (e.g. China’s target is for end of 2011).
© OECD/IEA 2010

24. Government Targets and PHEV/EV
Production/Sales as Reported by OEMs
Each production/sale shown here is assumed to be
constant after the year OEM announced/reported.
© OECD/IEA 2010

25. World PHEV/EV Sales in 2011
Source: MarkLines Database
• Took six years for HEVs to achieve what it took EVs in one year (2011)
• The Fukushima disaster created a supply bottleneck that may
misrepresent actual demand of 2011
© OECD/IEA 2010

26. Spending by EVI countries 2008-2011
Incomplete numbers nevertheless give indications of EV-spending
strategies pursued by countries
© OECD/IEA 2010

27. Subsidy scenario 2010-2020
• $50 billion between 2010-2020 is 0.1% of $33 trillion spent on conventional
vehicles and fuels
• If each conventional car sold in the next 10 years were taxed at $50, this
would pay for the entire EV rollout over the coming decade
© OECD/IEA 2010

28. Demonstration and pilot projects
www.iea.org
© OECD/IEA 2010

29. Clean fleet initiatives
 Several countries, regions and cities are incentivizing
commercial fleets to “go clean” through improving fuel
economy, integrating new technology vehicles and
reducing overall fuel use (e.g., car rental companies)
 France’s postal office, “La Poste,” has ordered 10,000
electric vehicles
 The US National Clean Fleets Partnership now includes
12% of the US commercial fleet, aiming to reduce CO2
emissions through efficiency measures and clean
technologies
 Victorian Government’s Electric Vehicle Trial including
training workshops for fleet managers -> good
example of importance of stakeholder education
 In total, private fleet purchases of EVs alone, now total
170,000 vehicles
© OECD/IEA 2010

30. Berlin: Electric Mobility Solutions
 Mini E trial with 70 vehicles to add grid stability from
renewable wind energy
 Initiative 120 Project is a concept demonstration to try out
alternative technologies in police cars
 The E-City Logistics Project demonstrated electric logistical
applications and extended delivery hours due to low noise
© OECD/IEA 2010

31. Amsterdam: Ambitious Near-Term
Source: EVI
 750 EVs today and 3,000/10,000 by 2012/2015
 Today, 350 public charging stations, highest rate per
inhabitant worldwide; by 2013, 1,000 points
 City’s EV charging network is first worldwide to provide
geo-information in real-time and as open data
© OECD/IEA 2010

32. Stockholm: Established charging
Source: EVI
 65% of households already have access to block
heaters; 140 public charging points; 200 slow chargers
in newest parking garage (picture)
 Environmental zones for heavy trucks (Amsterdam too)
 (Sweden) Tax exemption (5 years) and super credit
© OECD/IEA 2010
(4,000 Euros)

33. Conclusions
www.iea.org
© OECD/IEA 2010

34. Conclusions
 Without policy interventions oil use and related CO2 emissions
worldwide could double by 2050
 Even if we hit targets of 20 million EVs on the road by 2020, that
will only represent 2% of vehicles worldwide and well less than
1% of electricity demand, thus:
 We will just be reaching the point where real “take off” can
happen, but intermediate and long-term targets cannot be
met without adequate preparation and ramp-up time ->
temporal strategy essential
 We can change this picture dramatically and cut transport CO2
below current levels via a combination of
 Strong efficiency improvements in fuel economy (50%
improvement by 2030) and adoption of alternatives fuels
 Rapid uptake of advanced technology vehicles (e.g., EVs,
FCVs), but technology-neutral policies will achieve the best
results -> avoid silver bullet bias
© OECD/IEA 2010

35. THANK YOU!
tali.trigg@iea.org
www.iea.org
© OECD/IEA 2010

36. Backup Slides
© OECD/IEA 2010

37. Role of Biofuels
 In global baseline, biofuels now about 1.5%, reach 3%
in 2030, 4% in 2050, mostly 1st gen
 In LAC, its 8%, reaching 10% by 2030, 11% by 2050
 BLUE Map, biofuels reach about 10% of transport fuels
in 2030, 25% in 2050
 In LAC, biofuels reach nearly 20% in 2030, 40% in
2050
 Cane to ethanol (and eventually cane-biodiesel?)
continues to be very important in LAC
 After 2030 main growth for trucks, ships aircraft
 After 2020, all new biofuels are 2nd generation (and
cane)
 Costs reach competitive levels with $120/bbl oil by
2020-2025
© OECD/IEA 2010

38. EVI Activities
The Electric Vehicles Initiative (EVI) provides a forum for global
cooperation on the development and deployment of electric vehicles
(EVs). The initiative seeks to facilitate the global deployment of at least 20
million EVs by 2020, including plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and fuel cell
vehicles, by accomplishing the following:
• Encouraging the development of national deployment goals
• Launching pilot cities to promote EV demonstrations in urban
areas, and share experiences and lessons learned
• Sharing information on funding levels and research and
development programs to ensure that the most crucial global
gaps in vehicle technology development are being addressed
• Exchanging information on EV deployment targets, as well as
best practices and policies, to enable progress toward those
targets
• Engaging private sector stakeholders to focus on the benefits
of EV procurement for corporate fleets and public-private
investments in technology innovation
© OECD/IEA 2010

39. Acceptability
 Has not been perceived as « another tax »
 Scheme widely acceptedsmaller
 Customer shifted towards vehicle
 Dieselization raised in 2008, then decreased
© OECD/IEA 2010

40. OEMs answer
 Number of models subjected to Bonus
increased quickly
© OECD/IEA 2010

41. Cost of the scheme
 In 2008, the scheme cost the government (and
taxpayers) 214 million €
 Shift to smaller, cheaper vehicles also generated VAT
losses (est. an extra 300 million €)
 In 2009, 525 million €
 It was coupled with a scrapping scheme incentive
© OECD/IEA 2010

42. Adjustement to the scheme
 Economic neutrality for the public finance failed
 2010 bonus changed
 Extra steps in 2011, more to come in 2012
© OECD/IEA 2010

43. Cost of the scheme, 2010
 Still the cost of the scheme in 2010 was far from
neutrality
 Hence even tougher bonuses for 2011 and 2012
© OECD/IEA 2010

44. Impact on average new vehicle fleet
 Trend has been accelerated
© OECD/IEA 2010 Source: Ademe

45. Impact on average fleet
 Trend has been accelerated
 Gasoline cars are more CO2-efficient than Diesel
cars in 2009
 In 2009, France has the most efficient new
vehicle fleet in Europe
© OECD/IEA 2010 Source: Ademe

46. Growth of slow and fast charging
points in EVI countries, 2008-2011
Not all data points have
been submitted by all EVI
members which results in
underreporting.
© OECD/IEA 2010

47. Shown another way
© OECD/IEA 2010