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Malice Through the Looking Glass


  Behavior Analysis for the Next Decade
             Jeff Debrosse
“It is better to be roughly
right than precisely wrong.”
          •John Maynard Keynes
ANALYZE THIS…




Industry core focus
• code analysis
• Parse textual content
ANALYZE THAT…

Add social engineering analysis to
threat analysis
• Examine the behavior of the victim
  (underlying causes)
• Treat the disease as well as the
  symptom(s)!
Security    Convenience




TRADITIONAL SECURITY DILEMMA
PSYCHOLOGY AND DECEPTION



“Psychological manipulation of an
individual or set of individuals to produce
a desired effect on their behavior.“
TODAY’S AV VENDOR GOAL

To increase the security of our customers
• Heuristic Technology
• Cloud-based Solutions
• Others

         Today we mostly look for:
• Known bad objects (blacklisting)
• Known good objects (whitelisting, change
  detection)
THE PSYCHOLOGY OF DETECTION


What does behavior analysis have
to do with social engineering?
• Fake AV sells
• Manual analysis = large overhead (and it’s
  getting larger)
• User behavior: another security layer?
THE PSYCHOLOGY OF DETECTION

 JDLR: Cop Talk for “Just Don’t Look Right”

At this point, we may identify software as:
• Already classified
• Resembles badware (JDLR)
• Shares characteristics of badware
• Something which may be good or bad, but has
  proscribed characteristics
THE HUMAN ELEMENT

“No matter how low an
 opinion you have of
 your users, they will
    find a way to
   disappoint you”
• Stamos’ Law (or his corollary
            to Murphy’s Law)
           • Stamos, BH 2009
PROBABILITY AND EMAIL

     Bayesian spam filtering
     • Counts number of incorrect
       classifications.
     • Low computational
       overhead
     • Very fast machine learning
BAYESIAN ANALYSIS IN ACTION
the phrase “male enhancement” is detected in the body of the
email (85% probability of the message being spam)



the subject contains the phrase “real prescription meds” (95%
probability)



the body also contains the word (FREE) in all caps (98%
probability)



the sender’s email address and sending server are different –
99.9% probability)
PROBABILITY AND PEOPLE


                   Can we predict human
                behavior (with any accuracy)?

                Behavioral targeting does this
                            today!
GET YOUR GAME (THEORY) ON

Game theory attempts to
predict behavior such as:
• the interaction between two
  people
• movements of financial
  markets
• modern-day warfare
THE PRISONER’S DILEMMA (OR
PREDICTABLE RATIONALITY)

                                      S1
                            confess        don’t


                  confess   10,10          0,20

             S2   don’t      20,0           1,1
CONCLUSION

     Feedback

       Ethics

Optimized by…
• Cloud?
• Aggregation?
                     Have we reached the
• Behavioral Data?    industry’s limits?
QUESTIONS?

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Malice through the looking glass

  • 1. Malice Through the Looking Glass Behavior Analysis for the Next Decade Jeff Debrosse
  • 2. “It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong.” •John Maynard Keynes
  • 3. ANALYZE THIS… Industry core focus • code analysis • Parse textual content
  • 4. ANALYZE THAT… Add social engineering analysis to threat analysis • Examine the behavior of the victim (underlying causes) • Treat the disease as well as the symptom(s)!
  • 5. Security Convenience TRADITIONAL SECURITY DILEMMA
  • 6. PSYCHOLOGY AND DECEPTION “Psychological manipulation of an individual or set of individuals to produce a desired effect on their behavior.“
  • 7. TODAY’S AV VENDOR GOAL To increase the security of our customers • Heuristic Technology • Cloud-based Solutions • Others Today we mostly look for: • Known bad objects (blacklisting) • Known good objects (whitelisting, change detection)
  • 8. THE PSYCHOLOGY OF DETECTION What does behavior analysis have to do with social engineering? • Fake AV sells • Manual analysis = large overhead (and it’s getting larger) • User behavior: another security layer?
  • 9. THE PSYCHOLOGY OF DETECTION JDLR: Cop Talk for “Just Don’t Look Right” At this point, we may identify software as: • Already classified • Resembles badware (JDLR) • Shares characteristics of badware • Something which may be good or bad, but has proscribed characteristics
  • 10. THE HUMAN ELEMENT “No matter how low an opinion you have of your users, they will find a way to disappoint you” • Stamos’ Law (or his corollary to Murphy’s Law) • Stamos, BH 2009
  • 11. PROBABILITY AND EMAIL Bayesian spam filtering • Counts number of incorrect classifications. • Low computational overhead • Very fast machine learning
  • 12. BAYESIAN ANALYSIS IN ACTION the phrase “male enhancement” is detected in the body of the email (85% probability of the message being spam) the subject contains the phrase “real prescription meds” (95% probability) the body also contains the word (FREE) in all caps (98% probability) the sender’s email address and sending server are different – 99.9% probability)
  • 13. PROBABILITY AND PEOPLE Can we predict human behavior (with any accuracy)? Behavioral targeting does this today!
  • 14. GET YOUR GAME (THEORY) ON Game theory attempts to predict behavior such as: • the interaction between two people • movements of financial markets • modern-day warfare
  • 15. THE PRISONER’S DILEMMA (OR PREDICTABLE RATIONALITY) S1 confess don’t confess 10,10 0,20 S2 don’t 20,0 1,1
  • 16. CONCLUSION Feedback Ethics Optimized by… • Cloud? • Aggregation? Have we reached the • Behavioral Data? industry’s limits?