2014 elections are going to be definitely transformative insofar as the socio-political landscape of the country is concerned. We see a decisive mandate and a stable government.

1. Mandate 2014
Decisively transformative
Friday, 14 February 2014
Opinion by Vijay K. Gaba
Evolutionary not revolutionary
In our view, 2014 general elections are no ordinary elections. It is decidedly a
referendum on the desire and commitment of people for change in the
popular political and socio-economic discourse of the country.
These elections will definitely mark the evolution of Indian democracy to the
next level. It is however important to note that we do not expect any
revolutionary changes; only some evolutionary ones.
Political landscape of country has changed
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Party/Group
Projected Seats
NDA
275
of which BJP
247
UPA
of which Congress
Others
The political landscape of the country has changed materially in past
decade. These changes mark the 2nd wave of political evolution in the
history of independent India.
81
171
of whi ch
Degeneration of socialists
97
AIDMK
29
TMC
27
Left Front
25
The socialist forces which successfully carried the anti-feudalism (read antiCongressism) crusade and fought for the cause of social justice and
protection of religious minorities & economically backwards since early 1970’s
have all degenerated into lower grade clones of feudal Congress.
BSP
15
BJD
14
SP
10
RJD
8
Challenge to nationalist agenda of BJP
JDU
7
The BJP has lost the exclusive claim over middle class morality and
nationalism. The anti corruption movement in past 5years has swayed the
urban and semi-urban youth and small entrepreneurs out of the BJP
enclosure into a neutral territory.
AAP
7
Congress decimated
The base of the once only true national party has shrunk considerably. It has
dissipated to become a marginal force in large states like UP, Bihar,
Jharkhand, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu representing 40% of the Indian
population. In 2004 & 2009 it could manage just ~16% of eligible votes.
Total
543
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this report to the author at
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AAP has opened up many possibilities
The success of low cost, technology driven, decriminalized election model
used by the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in recent Delhi assembly election has
opened up many possibilities for civil society members, social workers and
other middle class people with political ambitions.
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2. 14 February 2014
Politics a low ROI business now
With crusade against corruption in public offices, misappropriation of national
resources and discretionary powers of politicians gaining further strength the
potential return on investment in contesting an election (ROI) is set to decline
dramatically. This may eventually take out a large number of “technical
politicians” out of the arena.
People wanting stability, giving decisive mandate
In past decade a trend has emerged whereby the people have mostly voted
for continuity if the image of the leader is good. 13 chief ministers from 8
different parties are currently serving 2nd to 5th term. Incumbent PM is also
serving second term (though he has made himself unavailable for 3rdterm).
Expect 2014 election to throw a decisive mandate, unlike past seven general
elections post 1984.
Couple of things however would not change
Regional identities and strong allegiance to caste, religion and region
Even after 65years of becoming a political union, India is perhaps still merely
the one. Little progress has been made in becoming a social and/or
economic union. Consequently, a national approach to anything was
conspicuous by its complete absence in general public discourse. People
have strong allegiance to their caste, religion, locality, region and state,
generally in that order.
Little effort is being invested by local politicians, teachers, social workers,
police or administrators in developing an “Indian” identity of people. A senior
professional in Chennai very proudly illustrated that how in US and UK
awareness about India is rising. People there now can tell a Tamilian from
Gujarati or Punjabi.
Corruption as a way of life
The unfortunate fact is that common man in India is quintessentially noncompliant. This is not likely to change in next decade or may be two. If
someone tells us that corruption as an idea is a “real” issue in this election –
we beg to differ.
Outlook for 2014 elections
It is a two layered contest (a) between continuity of feudalistic politics
dominated by vested interests & parochial considerations on one side and
aspirations of common people on the other side; and (b) within various
political organizations, between status quoits and progressive elements.
No one remains neutral
This election is akin to the epic war of Mahabharata. In Mahabharata
nobody could remain neutral. All need to take a side – right or wrong only
time will tell.
We therefore expect record participation, intense battle and decisive
outcome.
2

3. 14 February 2014
A definitive wave in favor of Modi
We see a definitive wave in favor of Narendra Modi. This however could not
be convincingly said for BJP.
Deriving from our Discover India tour last summer, recent tour of North and
East India, intensive discussions with workers from all parties, serious political
observers (not the TV studio types), and trends in social media – We believe
that NDA is positively poised to get 272+ seats.
It is important to highlight here that unlike 1977 and 1989, the wave this time is
not manifesting in terms of street shows. Nevertheless it is much more intense
and pervasive. Deriding the strong public opinion as manufactured social
media gimmicks would be a mistake; a serious one.
Acid test for Indian National Congress; will pass
Most opinion polls conducted so far have indicated decimation of Congress
Party in the forthcoming polls. Our assessment is that Congress may fare
worse than the most opinion polls have projected so far. It may win the lowest
number of seats ever.
But the number of seats it wins in Lok Sabha is not the most important things. It
has many more serious challenges to face.
The story may however not end with weakening of Congress Party in these
elections. Rather a new chapter, indeed a very interesting one, may begin.
As a weakened Congress Party losses its feudal and dynastic image, the
genuine socialists who have completely abandoned the Party in past four
decades may embrace it again provided the young leadership walks the
talk and co-opts the idea of AAP into present organization and advance it
forward. We see more chances of Gandhians like Anna Hazare supporting a
reoriented Congress rather than degenerated AAP.
Other parties to be marginalized
In pre-independence era the socialist movement had largely been a sub-plot
of larger Indian National Congress movement. The independent socialist
movement in the country gained nationwide prominence after Mrs. Indira
Gandhi managed to defeat the Gandhian voices within Congress.
Over past decade or so, however this movement has completely
degenerated. Most of these parties now distinctly appear lowly clones of
Congress Party. In our view, post 2014 election these parties will be surprisingly
marginalized and begin their journey to extinction. The journey may be long
(couple of decades) but path is straight and clear.
AAP as an idea to grow faster and further
AAP as a neo socialist Idea has emanated from the multiple Gandhian
socialist movements carried out by civil society members in past two
decades. Given that the classical socialist movement in the country has lost
appeal there is tremendous potential for this idea to succeed.
The idea of AAP seeks to establish the dominance of educated middle
classes over political domain for the welfare of poor and deprived. Though
the actions of AAP Party so far looks distinctly Maoist, the idea has indelible
mark of US political system, especially Democrats.
3

4. 14 February 2014
The goal post for 2014
elections has shifted
much further and higher
both in terms of quality
(agenda) and quantity
(vote share & seats).
Mandate 2014: Decisively transformative
In summer of 2013 Rs100cr (one billion) in box office collection was
indisputable benchmark for a Bollywood blockbuster. A few months later,
Salman Khan starrer “Jai Ho!” earning little over Rs100cr is a major
disappointment. What has changed?
Amir Khan starrer “Dhoom-3” has shifted the goal post dramatically higher to
Rs500cr. Remember, this is same Amir Khan who had earlier set the Rs100cr
benchmark with 3-Idiots and Ghajini.
A somewhat similar script is being played out on Indian political stage. The
goal post for 2014 elections has shifted much further and higher both in terms
of quality (agenda) and quantity (vote share & seats). This election in our
view is going to be definitely transformative.
What has changed?
Political landscape
2014 elections are most
important since 1977.
The political landscape of the country has changed materially in past one
decade, more so since 2009 elections. These changes mark the second
wave of political evolution in the history of independent India; the first wave
that came in early 1970’s with JP leading a massive socialist movement
against authoritarian rule of the then prime minister Mrs. Indira Gandhi, has
since waned.
Some of the drivers of changes in political landscape are:
•
eruption of massive public angst against corruption in public offices
consequent to some highly publicized corruption cases;
•
persistent inaction & poor-governance and consequent deterioration of
economic conditions and rise in economic disparities;
•
removal of entry barriers to active politics with emergence of AAP in Delhi
state elections;
•
active participation of both elite and middle class people in politics,
something not seen since pre-independence Swadeshi Movement;
•
blurring of ideological boundaries between parties leading to wider
acceptance for personality based electoral contest;
•
massive electoral success of Mamta Banerjee and popularity of Jagan
Reddy weakening the feudal elements within Congress party, prompting
youth leader Rahul Gandhi to rebel and take charge to transform the
GoP into a progressive democratic organization;
•
diminution of the relative importance of traditional religion and caste
issues in political discourse with economic issues taking the center stage;
•
degeneration of communist movement into mostly violent Maoist
movement;
•
unprecedented change in demographic profile of voters that has led to
larger participation of public in democratic process; and
•
disproportionate rise in the role of (social) media as opinion influencer.
4

5. 14 February 2014
Key emerging trends
It is imperative to highlight here some key trends that have emerged from the
changes taking place in the Indian political landscape:
the socialist forces which
successfully carried the
anti-feudalism crusade
and fought for the cause
of social justice, and
protection of religious
minorities & economically
backwards since early
1970’s have all
degenerated into second
grade clones of feudal
Congress.
Degeneration of socialists
Firstly, the socialist forces which successfully carried the anti-feudalism (read
anti-Congressism) crusade and fought for the cause of social justice and
protection of religious minorities & economically backwards since early 1970’s
when Mrs. Indira Gandhi sought to transform the Indian National Congress
into Congress (Indira), have all degenerated into lower grade clones of
feudal Congress.
Many of them are now seen close to Congress (except during the election
season); pursue the traditional vote bank politics seeking to create a divide in
society on the basis of caste, religion or region; and are driven by the
personality of the leader rather than idea or ideology.
Though, their purpose is still far from achieved, the process of extinction of
traditional socialists (read splinters of JP movement) may likely begin with
2014 general election and shall be completed in next couple of decades.
The space vacated by these so-called left of center forces could be
occupied gradually by neo-socialists like AAP and a re-organized Congress
(We shall deal with this subject a little later.)
Challenge to nationalist agenda of BJP
2014 elections will be
remembered as
“elections won or lost by
Narendra Modi.”
The BJP has lost the exclusive claim over middle class morality and
nationalism. The anti corruption movement in past 5years has swayed the
urban and semi-urban youth and small entrepreneurs out of the BJP
enclosure into a neutral territory. AAP has definitely shown them an
alternative path, though not many may want to take this less traveled path
immediately.
Narendra Modi, in a very high risk wager, is trying hard to retain BJP’s
traditional core support base, acquire a part of the socialist territory, and at
the same time marginalizing the parochial and dogmatic elements within BJP
to create a new look centralist organization.
In his endeavor he appears to have whole hearted support of business
community, especially industrialists. The support from the large working class
(laborers and farmers) and religious minorities is still underwhelming.
A successful campaign would provide the country a sustainable alternative
to Indian National Congress, whereas a failure could seriously jeopardize
Modi’s national ambitions and put question mark on BJP’s ability to provide a
viable national alternative.
Nonetheless, 2014 elections will be remembered as “elections won or lost by
Narendra Modi.”
Congress faces a bigger
challenge from within
than from outside.
Reorientation of Congress
Post independence the Congress Party has mostly been dominated by
erstwhile feudal lords, landlords and industrialists. Despite conspicuous
changes in the socio-economic landscape of the country since 1989, it has
failed to re-orient itself.
5

6. 14 February 2014
Consequently, the base of the once only true national party has shrunk
considerably. It has dissipated to become a marginal force in large states like
UP, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu representing 40% of the Indian
population. In 2004 & 2009 it could manage just ~16% of eligible votes.
Consistently declining support base has led to widening of chasm between
old feudal lordship within Congress Party and the ambitious youth in past few
years. Disastrous performance in 2013 assembly elections has embolden both
the camps and brought the divide in full public view.
The youth brigade led by Rahul Gandhi has been seen attempting to take
control of the Party and reorient it to the ground realties. Rahul Gandhi in
“acknowledgement of defeat” press interaction post December 2013
assembly elections, highlighted that the feudal elements in Congress Party
have not heeded to his suggestion of changing the way party has
traditionally worked. He said that he would pursue his agenda more
aggressively going forward.
The myth that Gandhi
family is the most
powerful force in the
Congress Party is about to
explode, detonated by
none other than Rahul
Gandhi himself.
The fear is that absence of any recognized national level leader outside
Gandhi family may encourage more secession on lines of Sharad Pawar,
Mamata Banerjee, Jagan Reddy, et al. This could be especially true in the
case of states where Congress enjoys reasonably higher vote share but is
doing consistently poorly in terms of electoral wins, e.g., UP, Madhya Pradesh
and Gujarat.
This election will perhaps also explode the most popular myth that Gandhi
family is indisputably the most powerful force in the Congress Party and
perhaps in the country also.
In our view, the Gandhi family, in post Indira era, derives its power from the
insidious design of the feudal elements within Congress and not necessarily
from its governing ability, political acumen or inheritance.
These elements fully aware that (a) they are no longer in position to gain
power in their respective states on their own; (b) there is little that can keep
them together and (c) without power their existence will be endangered –
use Gandhi family as an adhesive to keep them together and an emotional
bait for the electorate.
The practice has seen many rebellions even after failure of Sitaram Kesari
experiment in mid 1990’s – Sharad Pawar and Mamta Banerjee being the
most successful. Jagan Reddy, Kuldeep Bishnoi etc. will need to prove their
mettle in 2014.
2014 elections will determine how fast and how far Rahul Gandhi’s endeavor
to transform Congress Party into a genuine socialist movement will succeed.
The indications so far are that he sincerely wants to break away from the
clutches of feudal lords dominating the decision making within Congress
Party (and UPA government) and encourage a larger participation.
The show of anger at Press Club to protest against law to prohibit convicted
persons from contesting elections and fiery speech at AICC January session
in New Delhi that invoked all Congress legislatures to assert their powers are
some pointers to Rahul Gandhi’s rebellion against feudal forces within
Congress.
6

7. 14 February 2014
AAP has opened up many possibilities
Now many would not
mind our children opting
politics as a career.
The success of low cost, technology driven, decriminalized election model
used by the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in recent Delhi assembly election has
opened up many possibilities for civil society members, social workers and
other middle class people with political ambitions.
This section of the society always wanted to make positive contribution to the
country and society. However, they stayed away from electoral politics as it
was deemed to be an expensive affair and meant only for the powerful (rich
or criminal).
With entry barriers substantially lowered, there is tremendous rush to join AAP
and contest elections. Not many of them may win elections this time. But the
trend is certainly encouraging.
Unlike AGP in Assam and TDP in Andhra Pradesh which were exclusively local
movements, the idea of AAP indubitably has a national character and
therefore more likely to sustain.
However, the key would be to give it an open architecture to make it
scalable like the Indian National Congress in pre independence era. An
attempt to patent it by few individuals would make it worse than BSP.
Remember, BSP began as forceful common man movement but soon
degenerated into a fiefdom of select individual(s).
Politics becoming a buyers’ market, with low ROI
It is no longer about a
few powerful people
deciding what people
need and what they
should be given.
Another key highlight of 2014 election is that the agenda for the election is
being totally directed by voters, certainly a first in Indian political history.
It is no longer about a few powerful (mostly unconnected) people deciding
what people need and what they should be given. Most parties are forced
to go to people and ask what they want and draft their manifestos
accordingly.
Some parties are even talking about multiple local manifestos to address
specific problems of a region or state.
Not unreasonable to
assume a decisive
mandate after 25years of
fractured verdicts.
Moreover, with crusade against corruption in public offices, misappropriation
of national resources and discretionary powers of politicians gaining further
strength the potential return on investment in contesting an election (ROI) is
set to decline dramatically. This may eventually take out a large number of
“technical politicians” out of the arena.
People wanting stability, giving decisive mandate
In past decade a trend has emerged whereby the people have mostly voted
for continuity if the image of the leader is good. 13 chief ministers from 8
different parties are currently serving 2nd to 5th term. Incumbent PM is also
serving second term (though he has made himself unavailable for 3rdterm).
In most elections in past three years, voter turnout had been high and
mandate decisive, except a couple of cases like Delhi and Uttrakhand.
It would not be completely unreasonable to assume that 2014 election will
throw a decisive mandate, unlike past seven general elections post 1984.
7

8. 14 February 2014
What would likely not change?
Regional identities and strong allegiance to caste, religion and region
While the diversity of India
is celebrated world over
as a cultural
phenomenon, it has not
found its due place in the
economic policies and
programs.
During our India Discover trip last summer, traversing through the incredibly
wonderful landscapes and meeting over 10000 people across 17 states we
shockingly discovered that even after 65years of becoming a political union,
India is perhaps still merely the one.
We have made little progress in becoming a social and/or economic union.
Consequently, a national approach to anything was conspicuous by its
complete absence in general public discourse. This state of affair is clearly
reflected in diverse socio-economic conditions of different states, and in
many cases of various regions within a state.
We discovered that people have strong allegiance to their caste, religion,
locality, region and state, generally in that order. The concept of
“Indianness” was totally absence from daily routine. Nationalism is mostly
invoked on select occasions like Independence Day or Republic Day.
We found little effort being invested by local politicians, teachers, social
workers, police or administrators in developing an “Indian” identity of people.
A senior professional in Chennai very proudly illustrated that how in US and UK
awareness about India is rising. People there now can tell a Tamilian from
Gujarati or Punjabi.
In our view, therefore, any program, policy, idea or strategy that is formulated
purely from a national viewpoint has little chance of successful
implementation in India. To be successful, the programs, policies and
strategies have to be formulated and implemented at the smallest
administrative unit level, e.g., village panchayat or town municipality.
The debate over decentralization of power to local units is relevant and
needs to be pursued in right earnest.
Corruption as a way of life
We rarely mind corruption
if our children get
admission in a good
school/college through
backdoor; if we get our
passport without waiting
in queue; if we could
construct an additional
room in our house without
permission; or if we could
encroach upon the
pavement in front of our
house/shop;
In a recent interview the famous British journalist Mark Tully said that the only
thing that works for politicians in India is the feeling of electorate “Mera
Aadmi hai, mera kaam karega” (he is my man, will do my work).
The unfortunate fact is that common man in India is quintessentially noncompliant. Non-payment of taxes and utility dues, encroachment of public
land (parks, streets, pavements), illegal construction in legal colonies, traffic
violations, illegal phone connections (parent giving their phones to underage
children), under-age driving, incompetence and antiquated skills of public
servants, littering in public places, child labor, illegal commercial activities in
residential areas are some common examples of non-compliance.
No one minds corruption if his child gets admission in a good school/college
through backdoor; if he gets his passport without waiting in queue; if he can
construct an additional room in his house without permission; if he could
encroach upon the pavement in front of his house/shop; if he can dig a
deeper borewell in his house or put a powerful motor in his water supply line
when his neighbors’ taps go dry.
This is not likely to change in next decade or may be two. If someone tells us
that corruption as an idea is a “real” issue in this election – we beg to differ.
8

9. 14 February 2014
Outlook for 2014 elections
This election is like the
epic war of
Mahabharata. In
Mahabharata nobody
could remain neutral. All
need to take a side –
right or wrong only time
will tell.
We expect record
participation, intense
battle and decisive
outcome.
No one can remain neutral
2014 general elections are no ordinary elections. It is decidedly a referendum
on the desire and commitment of people for change in the popular political
discourse of the country.
It is a two layered contest (a) between continuity of feudalistic politics
dominated by vested interests & parochial considerations on one side and
aspirations of common people on the other side; and (b) within various
political organizations, between status quoits and progressive elements.
The outcome of these elections is widely seen as determinant for the course
of India’s journey into 21st century.
Given that apparently there is no consensus within parties on the direction of
the change – it is inevitably going to be contest about personalities rather
than parties and ideologies.
Most people we spoke to compare this election to the epic war of
Mahabharata. In Mahabharata nobody could remain neutral. All need to
take a side – right or wrong only time will tell.
We therefore expect record participation, intense battle and decisive
outcome.
A definitive wave in favor of Modi
The risk here is that many
of the electorate may
cast their vote just to
assert their newly found
political expression,
without actually
intending to usher a
change or bothering
about the consequences.
During InvesTrekk team’s latest intensive tour of 73 constituencies in UP, Bihar,
Uttrakhand, MP and Delhi, we felt a definitive wave in favor of Narendra
Modi. This however could not be convincingly said for BJP.
Under these circumstances candidate selection and addressal of local issues
in election manifesto of BJP will be critical.
Deriving from our Discover India tour last summer, recent tour of North and
East India, intensive discussions with workers from all parties, serious political
observers (not the TV studio types), and trends in social media – We believe
that NDA, is positively poised to get 272+ seats.
With some extra effort and prudent candidate selection, BJP crossing 250
mark on its own is very much probable.
It is important to highlight here that unlike 1977 and 1989, the wave this time is
not manifesting in terms of street shows. Nevertheless it is much more intense
and pervasive. Deriding the strong public opinion as manufactured social
media gimmicks would be a mistake; a serious one.
Moreover, it is not just social media, we witnessed it everywhere – schools,
collages, offices, market place, drawing rooms, social gatherings and kitty
parties.
In previous elections (except perhaps 1977), many people would just want to
listen to various opinions about the likely political scenario post election
without being actually concerned. This time however it’s definitely different.
Most people have strong opinions and are concerned about the outcome of
impending election. This, in our view, is an encouraging sign for the strength
and vibrancy of our democracy.
9

10. 14 February 2014
Acid test for Indian National Congress; will pass
The Congress Party may
weaken considerably in
these elections.
But the story may not end
here. Rather a new
chapter, indeed a very
interesting one, shall
begin.
The idea of Indian
National Congress will
survive and gain further
traction, as the
degenerated socialists
vacate the space.
Most opinion polls conducted so far have indicated decimation of Congress
Party in the forthcoming polls. Our assessment is that Congress may fare
worse than the most opinion polls have projected so far. It may win the lowest
number of seats ever.
But the number of seats it wins in Lok Sabha is not the most important things. It
has many more serious challenges to face. For example consider the
following:
•
Unlike 1977 and 1989, when Congress lost power to somewhat united
opposition, it could still manage to retain strong regional footprints. Now,
it is a marginal force in large states like UP, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal,
Tamil Nadu representing 40% of the Indian population. In 2004 & 2009 it
could manage just ~16% of eligible votes, this time the tally might be even
lower.
•
With its support base weakening, it may be forced to make alliances with
stronger regional parties like NCP, DMK or BSP on unfavorable terms or ally
with unpopular parties like RJD, JMM or RLD which further damages its
image.
The success will depend
on how it co-opts the
idea of AAP into present
organization and
advance it forward.
This (a) leaves it with even fewer seats to contest and hence diminished
chances of winning; and (b) discourages the party workers who with the
shrinking pie see little chances of fulfillment of their political ambitions.
Hence with Congress likely out of power for 5years, much reduced
strength in Rajya Sabha and only a few states under its rule (forecasts
suggest it losing Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra too, leaving it with just
two big state under its rule, i.e., Assam & Kerala) the already meager
cadre may further splinter away, making a comeback even more
unlikely.
•
With Narendra Modi at the helm for 5years, the secularism vs.
communalism debate might become redundant, breaking the very
fulcrum of opportunist alliances that have kept Congress and some
regional parties like RJD in contention since mid 1990’s.
In our view, however, the story may not end with weakening of Congress
Party in these elections. Rather a new chapter, indeed a very interesting one,
may begin. We believe that the idea of Indian National Congress is still
relevant and will survive loss of Congress Party, more so, as the degenerated
socialists vacate the space. Rahul Gandhi or no Rahul Gandhi.
As a weakened Congress Party losses its feudal and dynastic image, the
genuine socialists who have completely abandoned the Party in past four
decades may embrace it again provided the young leadership walks the
talk and co-opts the idea of AAP into present organization and advance it
forward. We see more chances of Gandhians like Anna Hazare supporting a
reoriented Congress rather than degenerated AAP.
In the meanwhile, we might see some Kamraj, Morarji Desai, Jagjiwan Ram,
Biju Patnaik, Sharad Pawar, Mamata Banerjee, Jagan Reddy, Mohammed
Alimuddin and Bhajan Lal sort of rebellion against the family.
10

11. 14 February 2014
Other parties to be marginalized
Indian National Congress
is the most suitable
candidate for carrying
forward the socialist
agenda.
In pre-independence era the socialist movement had largely been a sub-plot
of larger Indian National Congress movement. Post independence,
disagreeing with Nehruvian elite socialism, Gandhian socialist like Kriplani and
Lohia parted ways with Congress Party and created an independent socialist
movement under miscellaneous banners like Praja Socialist Party. The
influence area of these parties was however limited to few regions.
The independent socialist movement in the country gained nationwide
prominence after Mrs. Indira Gandhi managed to defeat the Gandhian
voices within Congress by successfully suppressing the inner party
democracy.
The movement started by prominent socialist leaders like Madhu Limaye,
Madhu Dandavate, Karpuri Thakur, George Fernandez, duly complimented
by the communists movement, was carried forward by Mulayam Singh
Yadav, Kanshi Ram, Lalu Prasad Yadav etc.
Over past decade or so, however this movement has completely
degenerated into opportunism afflicted with all the traits of feudalism which
once led to the degeneration of Indian National Congress. Most of these
parties now distinctly appear lowly clones of Congress Party.
In our view, post 2014 election these parties will be surprisingly marginalized
and begin their journey to extinction. The journey may be long (couple of
decades) but path is straight and clear.
AAP as an idea to grow faster and further
The idea of AAP seeks to
establish the dominance
of educated middle
classes over political
domain for the welfare of
poor and deprived.
Though the actions of
AAP Party so far looks
distinctly Maoist, the idea
has indelible mark of US
political system.
The problem lays with
people not the Idea.
AAP as a neo socialist Idea has emanated from the multiple Gandhian
socialist movements carried out by civil society members in past two
decades. Given that the classical socialist movement in the country has lost
appeal due to variety of factors (like lack of effective leadership, low appeal
to ambitious youth, lack of national appeal for any party, reduction in social
inequalities and poverty level, etc.) there is tremendous potential for this idea
to succeed.
The idea of AAP seeks to establish the dominance of educated middle
classes over political domain for the welfare of poor and deprived. Though
the actions of AAP Party so far looks distinctly Maoist, the idea has indelible
mark of US political system.
In our view, AAP as an idea will grow much faster and further than splinters of
Janta Party (ex BJP) and BSP; as unlike conventional socialist parties, it has
acquired a definite national character.
We are not sure, how long AAP as a political party will last, given the poor
organization and egotist leadership.
As of now, both BJP and Congress Party are in a position to co-opt the AAP
idea into their strategy. But in our view a weakened Congress post election
would be more receptive towards it. History also supports Congress as natural
suitor for the Idea.
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12. 14 February 2014
Seat projection
Based on our Discover India tour last summer, recent tour of North and East
India, intensive discussions with workers from all parties, serious political
observers (not the TV studio types), trends in social media and analysis of
trends in previous elections, we project the following seats for various parties
and groups.
Party/Group
NDA
of which BJP
UPA
of which Congress
Others
of which
AIDMK
TMC
Left Front
BSP
BJD
SP
RJD
JDU
AAP
Total
Projected Seats
275
247
97
81
171
29
27
25
15
14
10
8
7
7
543
Important notes
1. It is critical to note here that these projections are not based on any
scientific sample survey. These are purely on the basis of the subjective
assessment of our team members who have traversed through the
country for past one year, spoken to people, both common and elite.
2. We have built a wave in favor of Modi in the projection. Though, at
present the wave does not exist in favor BJP as such.
3. The results may vary materially (upto 60 seats less for BJP) if BJP falters in
candidate selection or some major negative condition erupts for Modi
and/or BJP in next couple of months.
4. If NDA fails to cross 250 mark on its own, it will extremely difficult for Modi
to occupy 7RCR.
(a) Most regional politicians facing the prospects of extinction should a
stable government be formed at center, would make all possible
efforts to prevent BJP from forming a government. Congress would
only be too glad to repeat what it did in Delhi recently.
(b) Even if the so called “others” fail to unite together, some of them will
negotiate with BJP a face saving formula which would include a PM
other than Modi.
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13. 14 February 2014
Our coverage of 2014 election so far
India Discover series (Click on the following links to read)
Anxiously Indifferent
Karnataka& Delhi
Goa, Punjab and Haryana
Gujarat
Rajasthan
Uttar Pradesh –I
Uttar Pradesh - II
Madhya Pradesh
Chhattisgarh
Bihar
West Bengal
Andhra Pradesh
20 Program: Agenda for 2014 election
Modi Vs. Rahul
Corruption Matters, Alas! Not the way it should
Reforms ain’t mean the same for Delhi and Sangli
Mandate 2014 – Tamil Nadu: zillion deities keep them happy
Other election related posts
Modi in a Chakravyuh
In this Mahabharata no one shall remain neutral
An election about personalities and egos
India needs a true coalition, even if it means a third front
Are we headed towards “mob-rule”? – Part III
Are we headed towards “mob-rule”? – Part II
Are we headed towards “mob-rule”?
Twist in stomach
Would AAP too pass?
Positioning for May 2014
What to expect from the new government post 2014 elections
Congress losses semi final; captain retired hurt
How to play Modi rally?
Great hopes - III
Great Hopes - II
13

14. 14 February 2014
Great hopes!
Follow the leader
Ganpati is son of Shiva
Whatever goes around comes around
Letter to Mr. Narendra Modi
Congress has much more to worry than mere losing
Mandate 2014 - PM Modi
Modi PM – Concluding part
Modi PM – Part V
Modi PM – Part IV
Modi PM – Part III
Mandate 2014: Modi PM – Part II
Mandate 2014: Modi PM – Part I
14

15. 14 February 2014
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