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U.S. Chamber Post 2012 Election Update
1. ICCE Fall Conference
November 15, 2012
U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
2. The 2012 Elections
Political Landscape Before Vote
Direction of Country: 40% right track
55% wrong track
President’s Job : 49% approval
47% disapproval
Congressional Job Approval: 17% approval
75% disapproval
Generic Congressional Vote: 45% Dem
45% GOP
U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
6. The 2012 Elections
Battleground Exit Polls
• Support from key constituencies
• President more likable than Romney
• Voters were more optimistic about
economy
• Super-storm Sandy
U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
7. The 2012 Elections
President Obama’s Win
Demographics + Ground Game
Women 55 % of the vote
Hispanics 71 % of the vote
African-Americans 93 % of the vote
Asian 73 % of the vote
Youth (18-29) 60 % of the vote
U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
8. The 2012 Elections
Battleground Exit Polls
“Role of Government”
• 43% of voters want an “activist
government”
• Compared to 52% in 2008
U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
9. The 2012 Elections
U.S. Senate
Currently: 51 D / 47 R / 2 Ind.
(GOP needed 4 for control)
2012 Senate Elections: 23 D / 10 R
– 7 Dem Open / 2 GOP Open
– 9 of the 23 seats held by Democrats voted for Bush or
McCain in the past two Presidential elections
– 5 Dem held seats are “toss up” = MT, ND, VA, WI & CT
– 1 Dem held seats “lean or likely” GOP = NE
– 5 GOP held seats are “toss up” = AZ, NV, MA, ME & IN
U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
10. The 2012 Elections
U.S. Senate Results
113th Congress: 52 D / 45 R / 3 Ind.
Democrats Picked Up:
Indiana – Rep. Donnelly defeated Mourdock
Maine – King defeated Summers and Dill
Massachusetts – Warren defeated Sen. Brown
Republicans Picked Up:
Nebraska – State Sen. Fischer defeated former
Senator Kerrey
U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
11. The 2012 Elections
U.S. House Results
Currently 242 R / 193 D (Ds + 25 for control)
113th Congress 234 R / 193 D (8 not decided)
24 members are ran against each other, thanks to
redistricting
U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
12. The Fiscal Cliff
U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
13. Q3 Small Business Outlook Survey
U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
14. Federal Spending, Deficits and Debt
Federal Deficit
• 2011 deficit was $1.3 trillion.
• 2012 deficit projected at $1.1 trillion
• The fourth consecutive annual deficit exceeding
$1 trillion.
U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
15. Federal Spending, Deficits and Debt
Federal Debt
• Gross debt at $16 trillion dollars ($11 trillion was
held by the public and $5 trillion was intergovernmental
holdings).
• Could lead to higher interest rates, a weak dollar,
more inflation, less private investment, lower
economic and job growth and decline in our
global competitiveness.
U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
18. Spending Composition
More Than Half Of Spending On “Auto-Pilot”
Biggest Driver Is Aging Baby-Boomer Generation
U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
20. The Fiscal Cliff
Budget Control Act of 2011 – Set the stage
• Debt limit increase - $900 billion increase in debt limit
and $917 billion in discretionary budget cuts.
• Super Committee - 12 member Committee failed to
adopt $1.2 trillion in deficit reduction (through budget
cuts and/or taxes).
• The Act mandates $1.2 trillion in Spending Cuts over
ten years beginning in 2013.
U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
21. The Fiscal Cliff
THE KEY ELEMENTS WHAT’S INVOLVED
This includes the Bush tax cuts, traditional tax
extenders (i.e. dividends, marginal rates, R&D,
expensing) and other stimulus measures (i.e.
payroll tax cut and Unemployment Insurance
benefits).
Sequestration would cut funding by
approximately $55 billion for defense and $55
billion for non-defense spending – a total of
$1.2 trillion over 10 years.
Another increase in the debt ceiling will be
required early in 2013, perhaps sooner
depending on the cash-burn rate.
U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
22. Economic Impact
Going over the “cliff”
– Moody’s has issued a warning that it would
downgrade America's credit rating if Congress
fails to reach a deal.
– CBO: going over the cliff would spark a
recession by slowing the economy by 0.5%
and remain below potential until 2018.
– CBO: unemployment would rise from 7.9 to 9.1
percent by the end of 2013
U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
23. The Budget
• U.S. Chamber believes that enhancing economic and job
growth is a prerequisite to achieve a balanced budget, but
growth alone will not be enough.
• Congress must reform entitlement programs and
restructure the tax code to bring revenue and spending
back into alignment.
– Reform entitlements – Comprises over 55% of federal
spending.
– Reform the U.S. tax code – To improve efficiency
and drive economic growth and bring revenue and spending
back into alignment.
U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
24. Tax Reform – Why do we need it?
• The United States has the world’s highest
corporate tax rate.
• The United States is the only country that
has a worldwide system of tax.
• Taxpayers spend 6.1 billion hours a year
complying.
• AMT was enacted in response to reports that
155 taxpayers legally avoided paying tax. In
2012, 31 million will be subject to AMT.
U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
25. Comprehensive Tax Reform
• Lower the corporate tax rate
• Adopt a Territorial Tax System
• Simply Tax Code
• Make reforms permanent
U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
26. Lame Duck
Set for November 13
• Fiscal Cliff
• Taxes (Extension)
• Spending Cuts (Sequestration)
• Russian PNTR
• Filibuster Rules
U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
27. Lame Duck
Major Tax Provisions
• Expiration of the Bush tax cuts (December 31, 2012)
• Expiration of the payroll tax cut (December 31, 2012)
• Expiration of unemployment benefits (December 31, 2012)
• Sequestration (January 2, 2013)
• AMT patch (December 31, 2012)
• Expiration of the tax extenders (R&D tax credit)
U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
28. Lame Duck
Three Options:
• NO DEAL
• Kick The Can
• Bridge Solution / Grand Bargain
U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
29. Debt Ceiling
Here's a number to watch: $224 billion
That is the difference between the U.S.
federal debt outstanding, as of Nov. 5, and
the debt ceiling of $16.394 trillion.
The gap will shrink in coming weeks.
U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
30. Elections
Clearly…
U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
31. Elections
Clearly…
Elections Matter
U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
32. The 2014 Elections
U.S. Senate
113th Congress: 52 D / 45 R / 3 Ind.
2014 Elections: 20 D / 13 R
– 12 D come from either Red States or Swing
States: LA, AR, AK, SD, ND, MT
– 1 R comes from a NON Red State = ME (Collins)
U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
33. Q3 Small Business Outlook Survey
Perhaps THE Most Important Finding!
97 % of Small Businesses surveyed cite a
candidate’s support for the free enterprise
system as important to how they will vote this
year.
U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
34. America’s Small Business Summit!
Save the Date:
April 29 – May 1, 2013 | Washington, D.C.
For more information, visit
www.uschambersummit.com.
U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
35. USCC Midwest Regional Office on Facebook!
Why should you become a fan?
• Latest news on USCC Programs
• Know what’s happening in D.C.
• Tell us what’s going on at your chamber!
• See what other Chambers in the Region
are doing
‘Like Us’ at
www.facebook.com/uschambermidwest
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36. U.S. Chamber of Commerce
Midwest Regional Office
Questions?
Doug Loon
Vice President, Regional Affairs
952.832.9151
dloon@uschamber.com
U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
