IPCC Fifth Assessment Report: Mitigation of Climate Change by Renate Christ, Secretary of the IPCC, International Safranbolu Climate Change Conference, Safranbolu, Turkey, 25 March 2015

1. IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Mitigation of Climate Change
Renate Christ, Secretary of the IPCC
Safranbolu, 26 March, 2015

2. IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
AR5 Key Messages
➜ We have the means to limit climate change and
build a more prosperous, sustainable future
➜ Adaptation and mitigation can help address
climate change, but no single option is
sufficient by itself
➜ Mitigation options are available in every major
sector
➜ Ambitious mitigation is affordable
AR5 WGII SPM, AR5 WGIII SPM

3. IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
AR5 SYR SPM

4. There is far more carbon in the ground
than emitted in any baseline scenario
4
Based on SRREN Figure 1.7

5. IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
GHG emissions growth between 2000 and 2010 has
been larger than in the previous three decades
AR5 WGIII SPM

6. IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
Sources of emissions
Energy production remains the primary driver of GHG emissions
35%
24% 21% 14%
6.4%
2010 GHG emissions
Energy Sector
Agriculture,
forests and
other land uses
Industry Transport
Building
Sector
AR5 WGIII SPM

7. GHG emissions rise with growth in GDP and population
7
Based on Figure 1.7

8. The long-standing trend of decarbonisation has reversed
8
Based on Figure 1.7

9. Fig. SPM.10
Temperature increase and cumulative carbon emissions

10. Fig. SPM.10
Temperature increase and cumulative carbon emissions

11. IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

12. IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
Stabilization of atmospheric concentrations requires moving away from the
baseline – regardless of the mitigation goal.
Based on Figure 6.7
AR5 WGIII SPM

13. IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
Stabilization of atmospheric concentrations requires moving away from the
baseline – regardless of the mitigation goal.
~3°C
Based on Figure 6.7 AR5 WGIII SPM

14. IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
The window for action is rapidly closing
65% of our carbon budget compatible with a 2°C goal already used
Amount Used
1870-2011:
1900
GtCO2
Amount
Remaining:
1000
GtCO2
Total Carbon
Budget:
2900
GtCO2
AR5 WGI SPM

15. IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
Limiting temperature increase to 2˚C
A combination of adaptation and substantial, sustained reductions in
greenhouse gas emissions can limit climate change risks
Implementing reductions in greenhouse gas emissions poses
substantial technological, economic, social, and institutional
challenges
But delaying mitigation will substantially increase the
challenges associated with limiting warming to 2°C
AR5 WGI SPM, AR5 WGII SPM,AR5 WGIII SPM
Measures exist to achieve the substantial emissions reductions
required to limit likely warming to 2°C (40-70% reduction in GHGs
globally by 2050 and near zero GHGs in 2100)

16. Delaying mitigation increases the difficulty and narrows the
options for limiting warming to 2oC
1
6
„immediate action“

17. 1
7
Delaying mitigation increases the difficulty and narrows the
options for limiting warming to 2oC

18. 1
8
Delaying mitigation increases the difficulty and narrows the
options for limiting warming to 2oC

19. 1
9
„immediate action“
„delayed mitigation“
Delaying mitigation increases the difficulty and narrows the
options for limiting warming to 2oC

20. 2
0
Delaying mitigation increases the difficulty and narrows the
options for limiting warming to 2oC

21. 2
1
Based on Figures 6.32 and 7.16
Delaying mitigation increases the difficulty and narrows the
options for limiting warming to 2oC

22. IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
Mitigation Measures
More efficient use of energy
Greater use of low-carbon and no-carbon energy
• Many of these technologies exist today
Improved carbon sinks
• Reduced deforestation and improved forest management
and planting of new forests
• Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage
Lifestyle and behavioral changes
AR5 WGIII SPM

23. Baseline scenarios suggest rising GHG emissions in all sectors,
except for CO2 emissions from the land‐use sector
23
Based on Figure TS.15

24. Mitigation requires changes throughout the economy
Systemic approaches are expected to be most effective
24
Based on Figure TS.17

25. Decarbonization of energy supply is a key requirement
for limiting warming to 2oC
25
Based on Figure 7.11

26. Energy demand reductions can provide flexibility,
hedge against risks, avoid lock-in and provide co-benefits
26
Based on Figure 7.11

27. IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
Ambitious mitigation is affordable
➜ Economic growth reduced by ~ 0.06%
(BAU growth 1.6 - 3%)
➜ This translates into delayed and not forgone
growth
➜ Estimated cost does not account for the
benefits of reduced climate change
➜ Unmitigated climate change would create
increasing risks to economic growth
AR5 WGI SPM, AR5 WGII SPM

28. IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
www.ipcc.ch