Brian Clancey from STATPUB.com shares Global Pulses Import - Export data in this insightful presentation. Pulses production, demand, trends in import-export and future outlook as presented at India Pulses & Grains Associaiton's 'Global Pulses Conclave 2012.

1. Global Pulses
Conclave 2012
BRIAN CLANCEY
WWW.STATPUB.COM

2. Meeting Future Food Needs
• World population growth may slow from 1% to
0.5% by 2050
• Average net field crop output needs to rise at
least 1% per year through 2050
• Ethanol from grain may be unsustainable
www.statpub.com

3. Meeting Future Food Needs
(1991 = 100)
Food supply
needs to grow
over 1% per year
www.statpub.com

4. 0.5% Annual Yield Increase
(kilograms per person per year)
Food shortages
and very high prices
www.statpub.com

5. Trend Growth in Average Yield
(kilograms per person per year)
Periods of tight
supply, high prices
www.statpub.com

6. Global Crop Production Outlook
• Pulses are a minor crop the world’s perspective
• Canada’s pulse breeders think they can add an
average 1% per year to yield with new varieties
• Pulses do not get same attention from plant
breeders as rice, soybeans, or corn
• Long term yield gains may be smaller than 1%
www.statpub.com

7. Trend Growth in Field Crops
(million metric tons)
www.statpub.com

8. Global Pulse Production Ranges
(million metric tons)
www.statpub.com

9. Global Pulse Output Trend
(million metric tons)
www.statpub.com

10. Global Pulse Usage Ranges
(kilograms per person)
Per capita pulse usage
is trending lower
www.statpub.com

11. Global Pulse Usage Trend
(kilograms per person - cumulative)
www.statpub.com

12. Medium Term Outlook
• Pulse production will rise in 2012
• Export prices should trend lower through 2014
• Easing prices may lead to lower pulse area in
2015 and 2016
• Export prices should start firming by 2016
www.statpub.com

13. World Pulse Forecast
(million metric tons)
www.statpub.com

14. Field Pea 2012 Outlook
• Canadian acreage will be up because of good
movement and strong prices
• U.S. acreage will rise as farmers bring flooded land
back into production
• France’s acreage will fall because the feed pea
subsidy has been removed
• Prices should be lower on average
www.statpub.com

15. World Dry Pea Forecast
(million metric tons)
www.statpub.com

16. World Field Pea Production
(metric tons)
5-Year
2011
2012
287,788
301,000
311,900
3,084,720
2,115,600
2,786,000
United States
662,000
255,000
650,000
France
754,109
676,000
728,747
Ukraine
464,340
365,300
323,600
Other
4,719,553
4,738,276
4,709,787
World
9,972,511
8,451,176
9,510,035
Australia
Canada
The 5-year average covers 2005-06 to 2010-11
www.statpub.com

17. Canada Pea Supply-Demand
(metric tons)
5-year average
2011-12
2012-13
2,923,000
2,115,600
2,786,000
444,000
535,000
210,000
Stocks
3,399,000
2,669,200
3,014,800
Exports
2,389,000
2,115,000
2,296,000
All Domestic
709,000
344,200
514,800
Ending Stocks
301,000
200,000
250,000
9.7 %
8.1 %
9.1 %
$294
$390
$275 - $350
Production
Carry In
Stocks to Use
FOB Price
The 5-year average covers 2005-06 to 2010-11
www.statpub.com

18. Yellow Pea Price Comparison
(U.S. $ per MT FOB Origin Port)
www.statpub.com

19. Lentil 2012 Outlook
• Canadian acreage will drop because of poor
prices
• U.S. acreage will rise as farmers bring flooded
land back into production
• Prices should be lower on average for green
lentils but unchanged to firmer for red
www.statpub.com

20. World Lentil Forecast
(million metric tons)
www.statpub.com

21. World Lentil Production
(metric tons)
5-Year Average
Australia
2011
2012
161,847
306,000
307,000
1,181,917
1,947,100
1,333,000
United States
217,046
392,679
346,000
Turkey
433,576
447,400
402,000
Other
1,581,817
1,129,010
1,543,808
World
3,576,202
4,222,189
3,931,808
Canada
The 5-year average covers 2005-06 to 2010-11
www.statpub.com

22. Canada Lentil Supply-Demand
(metric tons)
5-year average
2011-12
2012-13
1,182,000
1,531,900
1,174,000
176,000
750,000
560,000
1,366,000
2,295,200
1,741,000
Exports
967,000
1,191,000
1,228,000
All Domestic
167,000
445,200
222,000
Ending Stocks
232,000
560,000
320,000
Stocks to Use
20.5 %
32.3 %
22.5 %
Laird FOB Price
$816
$890
$675 - $850
Red FOB Price
$763
$639
$625 - $700
Production
Carry In
Stocks
The 5-year average covers 2005-06 to 2010-11
www.statpub.com

23. Lentil Price Comparison
(U.S. $ per MT FOB Origin Port)
www.statpub.com

24. Dry Bean 2012 Outlook
• N. American will jump in response to bullish
local markets this season
• Argentina will plant more in response to
problems with Brazil’s harvest
• World prices may be unchanged to slightly
easier next season
www.statpub.com

25. World Dry Bean Forecast
(million metric tons)
www.statpub.com

26. World Dry Bean Production
(metric tons)
5-Year Average
2011
2012
China
1,540,000
1,460,000
1,520,000
Argentina
3,360,000
320,000
330,000
Myanmar
4,170,000
3,890,000
4,240,000
North America
2,590,000
1,640,000
2,620,000
Other
9,760,000
12,240,000
11,980,000
World
21,420,000
19,550,000
20,690,000
The 5-year average covers 2005-06 to 2010-11
www.statpub.com

27. Edible Bean Price Comparison
(U.S. $ per MT FOB Origin Port)
www.statpub.com

28. Chickpea 2012 Outlook
• Mexican drought limited acreage expansion this
year
• India’s desi crop is officially lower than last year
while kabuli may end up higher
• Kabuli prices may be lower on average in
coming months
www.statpub.com

29. World Chickpea Forecast
(million metric tons)
www.statpub.com

30. World Chickpea Production
(metric tons)
5-Year Average
2011
2012
1,000,000
1,000,000
1,000,000
India
320,000
390,000
400,000
Turkey
480,000
400,000
370,000
Mexico
150,000
40,000
80,000
1,950,000
1,830,000
1,850,000
11,280,000
11,280,000
11,440,000
Kabuli
Other
All Kabuli
Desi
The 5-year average covers 2005-06 to 2010-11
www.statpub.com

31. Chickpea Price Comparison
(U.S. $ per MT FOB Origin Port)
www.statpub.com

32. Factors Driving Prices
• Competition for acres and consumer demand
• U.S. biofuel policy
• India’s population will grow faster than world
average through 2050
• China’s population will peak in 15 years
www.statpub.com

33. Battle For Acres
• Farmers will not grow pulses unless they can
make as much or more money than growing
other crops
• Consumers will not buy more pulses unless
they are as cheap or cheaper than other foods
• As a result, all crops follow same price pattern
www.statpub.com

34. Field Crop Index vs. Crude Oil
(2002-2004 = 100)
www.statpub.com

35. Shifting Population
• World population growth will slow from 1%
today to around 0.5% by 2050
• India’s population will grow faster than world
average through 2050
• China’s population will peak in 15 years
www.statpub.com

36. China’s Declining Food Needs
(1991 = 100)
Food needs will peak
in 2020-30 as
population peaks
www.statpub.com

37. India’s Growing Food Needs
(1991 = 100)
As average age and
incomes rise food
needs will grow
www.statpub.com

38. India Pulse Demand Trend
(million metric tons)
Usage could fluctuate
3 million MT per year
www.statpub.com

39. Conclusion
• Biofuel mandates may be unsustainable
• Plant breeders need to increase average yields
and handling system needs to reduce losses
• Battle for acres will keep pulse prices relatively
strong
www.statpub.com