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Canadian Pulse Outlook
Gordon Bacon, CEO Pulse
Canada, CEO CSCA
February 16, 2012
Seeding : April-May
Harvest: August-September
Moisture Levels
Moisture Levels
Canadian Crop Production
million metric tonnes

30
25
Wheat
Canola
Pea
Lentil
Flax

20
15

10
5

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13f

Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada: Pulse and Special Crops
Outlook, Grain and Oilseeds Outlook
Canadian Pea Supply

+27%

+25%

4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0

2007

2008

2009

Seeded Acres (kha)
Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada:
Pulse and Special Crops Outlook

2010

2011

Production (kt)

2012f
Canadian Pea Supply
2008

2009

2010

2011

2010-11
2012f % change

Seeded Acres (kha)

1617

1522

1396

942

1200

+27%

Harvested Acres (kha)

1585

1487

1322

914

1170

+28%

Yield (t/ha)

2.03

2.27

2.28

2.31

2.26

Production (kt)

3571

3379

3018

2116

2650

Imports (kt)

15

55

33

40

40

Carry in

255

445

900

535

200

3,841

3,880

3951

2691

2890

SUPPLY

TOTAL SUPPLY (kt)

Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada:
Pulse and Special Crops Outlook

+25%

+7%
Canadian Pea Demand
2010-11
% change

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012f

Total Domestic Use (kt)*
Exports: Edible and Feed (kt)
Carry out (kt)

571
2826
445

802
2178
900

404
3012
535

391
2100
200

390
2200
300

0%
+5%

TOTAL DEMAND (kt)

3397

2980

3416

2491

2590

+4%

DEMAND

* Includes, food, feed, seed, waste and dockage

Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada:
Pulse and Special Crops Outlook
Top 5 Export Destinations for
Canadian Pea (tonnes)
1,600,000
1,400,000
1,200,000

India

1,000,000

China

800,000

Bangladesh

600,000

United States

400,000

Cuba

200,000
2008

Source: Statistics Canada

2009

2010

2011-Nov
Canadian Lentil Supply
2500
2000

-15%
-18%

1500
1000
500
0

2007

2008

2009

Seeded Area (kha)
Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada:
Pulse and Special Crops Outlook

2010

2011

Production (kt)

2012f
Top 5 Export Destinations for
Canadian Lentil (tonnes)
300,000
250,000
200,000

Turkey

150,000

Algeria
UAE

100,000

India

50,000

Egypt

-

2008

Source: Statistics Canada

2009

2010

2011-Nov
Concluding Comments
• Attend the CSCA Convention in June
• Mid-winter weather tells us nothing
• Very early: seeding intentions can change

Sources
Pulse and Special Crop Outlook, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada
http://www.agr.gc.ca/pol/maddam/index_e.php?s1=pubs&s2=spec&s3=php&page=spec_2012-01-17

Soil moisture maps: http://www4.agr.gc.ca/DW-GS/currentactuelles.jspx?lang=eng&jsEnabled=true
CSCA 2012 Convention
June 25-28, 2012 Montreal, Quebec

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Canadian Pulses Outlook

  • 1. Canadian Pulse Outlook Gordon Bacon, CEO Pulse Canada, CEO CSCA February 16, 2012
  • 2. Seeding : April-May Harvest: August-September
  • 5. Canadian Crop Production million metric tonnes 30 25 Wheat Canola Pea Lentil Flax 20 15 10 5 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13f Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada: Pulse and Special Crops Outlook, Grain and Oilseeds Outlook
  • 6. Canadian Pea Supply +27% +25% 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2007 2008 2009 Seeded Acres (kha) Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada: Pulse and Special Crops Outlook 2010 2011 Production (kt) 2012f
  • 7. Canadian Pea Supply 2008 2009 2010 2011 2010-11 2012f % change Seeded Acres (kha) 1617 1522 1396 942 1200 +27% Harvested Acres (kha) 1585 1487 1322 914 1170 +28% Yield (t/ha) 2.03 2.27 2.28 2.31 2.26 Production (kt) 3571 3379 3018 2116 2650 Imports (kt) 15 55 33 40 40 Carry in 255 445 900 535 200 3,841 3,880 3951 2691 2890 SUPPLY TOTAL SUPPLY (kt) Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada: Pulse and Special Crops Outlook +25% +7%
  • 8. Canadian Pea Demand 2010-11 % change 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012f Total Domestic Use (kt)* Exports: Edible and Feed (kt) Carry out (kt) 571 2826 445 802 2178 900 404 3012 535 391 2100 200 390 2200 300 0% +5% TOTAL DEMAND (kt) 3397 2980 3416 2491 2590 +4% DEMAND * Includes, food, feed, seed, waste and dockage Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada: Pulse and Special Crops Outlook
  • 9. Top 5 Export Destinations for Canadian Pea (tonnes) 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 India 1,000,000 China 800,000 Bangladesh 600,000 United States 400,000 Cuba 200,000 2008 Source: Statistics Canada 2009 2010 2011-Nov
  • 10. Canadian Lentil Supply 2500 2000 -15% -18% 1500 1000 500 0 2007 2008 2009 Seeded Area (kha) Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada: Pulse and Special Crops Outlook 2010 2011 Production (kt) 2012f
  • 11. Top 5 Export Destinations for Canadian Lentil (tonnes) 300,000 250,000 200,000 Turkey 150,000 Algeria UAE 100,000 India 50,000 Egypt - 2008 Source: Statistics Canada 2009 2010 2011-Nov
  • 12. Concluding Comments • Attend the CSCA Convention in June • Mid-winter weather tells us nothing • Very early: seeding intentions can change Sources Pulse and Special Crop Outlook, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada http://www.agr.gc.ca/pol/maddam/index_e.php?s1=pubs&s2=spec&s3=php&page=spec_2012-01-17 Soil moisture maps: http://www4.agr.gc.ca/DW-GS/currentactuelles.jspx?lang=eng&jsEnabled=true
  • 13. CSCA 2012 Convention June 25-28, 2012 Montreal, Quebec