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DTZ Foresight
                                                 Asia Pacific Fair Value Q1 2011
                                                        Increasing opportunities

1
                                              The DTZ Fair Value Index™ (FVI) score for Asia Pacific has risen to 65 from
1 June 2011                                    57 in Q4 2010 (Figure 1). All sector scores have been upgraded, with the
                                               office score moving from 60 to 67, retail from 55 to 62, and industrial recording
                                               the biggest jump from 50 to 65.
Contents
                                              The rental outlook remains strong for Asia Pacific property, with robust
Overview                           1           demand driving rental growth. Yields, still elevated in the aftermath of the
Fair Value Index                   2           downturn, will experience compression in a majority of markets. This creates
Asia Pacific market                            opportunities for investors, albeit within a limited timeframe.
classifications                    3
Asia Pacific vs global forecasts   5          Particularly in India, China and Australia, investors have a choice of high-
Office market forecasts            6           yield, high-growth markets available at attractive prices. Elsewhere in the
Retail market forecasts            7           region, investors need to be more selective as underlying fundamentals in
Industrial market forecasts        8           some sector-locations do not justify prices.
Economic Drivers                   9
                                              The strong performance of the Indian economy in late 2010 and early 2011
                                               has led us to upgrade our growth outlook for several Indian markets, including
                                               Delhi offices, which we now rate as a HOT market. Out of the 14 office and
Authors                                        retail markets in India, 10 are ranked as HOT. Among other non-core
                                               locations, industrial markets in Australia and second-tier offices in China
Ben Burston                                    provide bargains through strong growth forecasts in rents and values.
Forecasting & Strategy Research
+44 (0)20 3296 2296                           Both domestic and foreign investors have targeted prime properties in core
ben.burston@dtz.com                            locations, often driving prices beyond fair value. Hong Kong is the most
                                               prominent Asia Pacific market to have experienced this, with all three sectors
Zubaer Mahboob                                 ranked as COLD.
Forecasting & Strategy Research
+44 (0)20 3296 2312                           Other established markets such as Tokyo and Sydney are rated as WARM
zubaer.mahboob@dtz.com                         and can still offer worthwhile opportunities. Singapore is a core location that
                                               has experienced a very strong turnaround since the recession, with all three
                                               sectors rated as HOT and all included in the region’s top 20 sector-locations.
Contacts
David Green-Morgan                         Figure 1
Head of Asia Pacific Research              Changes in Asia Pacific Fair Value Index scores – Q4 to Q1
+61 (0)2 8243 9913
david.green-morgan@dtz.com                                                        DTZ Fair Value Index Score
                                                                       57             65            60               67
                                                            100%
Tony McGough                                                 90%
Global Head of Forecasting &                                 80%       21                           11
                                                                                       28                            14
Strategy Research                                            70%
+44 (0)20 3296 2314                                          60%
tony.mcgough@dtz.com                                         50%
                                                             40%       27                           14
Hans Vrensen                                                                           23                            12
                                                             30%
Global Head of Research
                                                             20%
+44 (0)20 3296 2159
                                                             10%       13              10            5
hans.vrensen@dtz.com                                                                                                 4
                                                              0%
                                                                   All property    All property Offices Q4     Offices Q1
                                                                        Q4              Q1
                                                                        Cold                Warm               Hot
                                           Source: DTZ Research




www.dtz.com                                                                                                                        1
Fair Value Index




Asia Pacific Fair Value Index score sits at 65 in Q1                       Our Fair Value analysis for Q1 2011 concludes that
2011                                                                        there are currently 28 HOT markets, up from 21 in
                                                                            Q4 2010, while the number of COLD markets has
                                  TM
       The DTZ Fair Value Index score for Asia Pacific                     fallen from 13 to 10 (Table 2).
        stands at 65, reflecting broadly attractive investment
        conditions across the region (Table 1).                        Table 2
                                                                      Asia Pacific (APAC) market classifications Q1 2011
    Table 1
                                                                                                                                     Change
    Asia Pacific Fair Value Index scores Q1 2011                                               HOT            Change      COLD
                                                                                                                                      since
                                                                                              markets         since Q4   markets
                                   Q1 2011       Q4 2010                                                                               Q4
                                                                      APAC all-
    Asia Pacific all-property          65           57                                           28              ▲          10          ▼
                                                                      property
     Asia Pacific office               67           60
                                                                         APAC office             14              ▲           4          ▼
     Asia Pacific retail               62           55
                                                                      Australia all-
     Asia Pacific industrial           65           50                                           7               ▲           1          ▼
                                                                      property
    Global all-property                50           53                China all-
                                                                                                 7                -          2           -
     Global office                     45           47                property
     Global retail                     56           60                India all-property         10              ▲           1           -
     Global industrial                 53           53                Other APAC all-
                                                                                                 4               ▲           6          ▼
    Source: DTZ Research
                                                                      property
                                                                      Source: DTZ Research


       All sector scores have been upgraded this quarter,
        led by the industrial sector from 50 to 65, where                  As the index scores indicate, we retain the view that
        upwards revisions to rental growth forecasts and a                  investors in the region taking a medium to long term
        fall in bond yields has improved the fair value                     view can access several high yielding and high
        classification of several Australian markets.                       growth markets at a discount relative to pricing
                                                                            elsewhere. This is reflected in the favourable findings
       The Asia Pacific region continues to compare                        for China, India and Australia.
        favourably with the other global regions, with
        investors set to benefit from stronger rental growth               There are, however, several COLD markets where
        associated with a more positive economic backdrop                   we consider that pricing has moved out of line with
        than in the United States or Europe.                                underlying fundamentals, so investors need to be
                                                                            selective with their approach.




Box 1: Guide to the DTZ Fair Value Index™

The DTZ Fair Value Index™ is intended to provide investors with insight into the relative
attractiveness of current pricing in global commercial property markets. Fair Value Index
scores reflect the proportion of HOT and COLD markets, with higher scores implying                    Index           Pages 2-3
more HOT markets.

Markets are categorised by comparing expected and required returns. Markets                       Fair Value
estimated to be more than 5% under-priced are classified HOT; markets more than                                           Page 4
                                                                                                Classifications
5% over-priced are classified as COLD; and, markets between this range are
classified as WARM.                                                                          Property Forecasts              Pages 5-8
The DTZ Fair Value Index™ is a forward-looking index based on econometric
forecasts incorporating local economic drivers and local market                              Economic Forecasts                    Page 9
knowledge.

For further information on the methodology used for classifying different markets and calculating Fair Value Index scores, see the
                                           TM
DTZ Research report: DTZ Fair Value Index Methodology: Solid Foundations for Future Returns.




www.dtz.com                                                                                                                                  2
Asia Pacific Market Classifications




Figure 2                                                                         Global divergence widens in Q1
Regional Fair Value Index scores: Q1 2011
                                                                                    The increase in the Asia Pacific score has widened
                              DTZ Fair Value Index Score                             the divergence in global scores (Figure 2). While the
                50             32        65         74           28                  Asia Pacific score for Q1 has increased, the index
 100%                                                             1
                               10
                                                                                     scores globally and for each region have fallen this
                60
   80%                                       28                                      quarter. In Europe, the lower score reflects a rise in
                                                                  9
                               43                        22                          government bond yields which is raising required
   60%                                                                               returns, while in the United States cap rates are now
                74                                                                   falling from historically high levels as the market
   40%
                                             23                                      continues its lagged recovery from the downturn.
                               46                         8      10
   20%
                61                                                                  Across the world, investors are targeting prime
                                             10           5
    0%                                                                               property in core locations, driving yield compression
             Global           Europe        Asia         US      UK                  and dampening the outlook for expected returns in
                                           Pacific                                   coming years. While prominent Asian markets such
                  Cold                      Warm                Hot
                                                                                     as Hong Kong have experienced this, many non-core
Source: DTZ Research
                                                                                     Asian markets continue to trade at much higher
                                                                                     yields, resulting in a more attractive investment
 Figure 3                                                                            environment for the region overall across all sectors
 Asia Pacific index scores by sector: Q1 2011                                        (Figure 3). There are, however, pressures building in
                                                                                     China (Box 1).
                                DTZ Fair Value Index Score
                     65             67             62                 65
   100%
    90%
    80%
                                                                                 Box 1: Prices rising as yields harden in China
                       28              14                9            5
    70%
    60%                                                                          In response to the global recession, the Chinese authorities
    50%                                                                          implemented significant monetary stimulus to help cushion the
    40%                                                  8
                                                                                 impact of the downturn. Since then, however, they have been
                       23              12                             3          slow to withdraw this support, resulting in strong money supply
    30%
    20%                                                                          growth and inflationary pressures.
    10%                10              4                 4            2
     0%                                                                          This excess liquidity is leading to asset price appreciation,
              All property          Offices            Retail   Industrial       including in property which is seeing lower yields as investors
                       Cold                   Warm               Hot
                                                                                 compete for prime stock (Figure 4). While we had seen some
                                                                                 evidence of this during 2010, the downward pressure on yields
 Source: DTZ Research                                                            has become more apparent in Q1 2011, with prime office yields
                                                                                 in Guangzhou, Chengdu and Shenzhen dropping to historic
Figure 4                                                                         lows.

Yield hardening in Chinese office markets                                        In response to these economy-wide pressures, the authorities
                                                                                 have continually raised bank reserve ratio requirements in an
   9%                                                                            attempt to slow money supply and lending growth and dampen
                                                                                 inflationary pressures. However, given the extent of the excess
   8%                                                                            liquidity in the Chinese financial system, it will take some time to
                                                                                 rein in inflation and the pace of growth may moderate as policy
   7%                                                                            tightens.

   6%                                                                            While these markets remain broadly attractive in terms of their
                                                                                 fair value classifications owing to strong rental growth,
   5%
                                                                                 continued yield compression would reduce expected returns by
                                                                                 lowering income and capital growth prospects, and could cause
                                                                                 us to downgrade our classifications.
   4%
     Dec-09       Mar-10 Jun-10               Sep-10     Dec-10 Mar-11
                    Shanghai                               Guangzhou
                    Chengdu                                Shenzhen
Source: DTZ Research




www.dtz.com                                                                                                                                        3
Asia Pacific Market Classifications




Several upgrades due to a firmer rental growth                      Figure 5
outlook
                                                                    Selected changes in rating – Q4 2010 to Q1 2011
   The rise in the Asia Pacific index score in Q1 is the                                                 Q1 2011
                                                                                           COLD           WARM                  HOT
    result of the net balance of 12 changes in market                 Q4 2010
    classifications, with 11 of these being upgrades, eight                      Taipei office         Sydney retail
    from WARM to HOT and three from COLD to WARM                         COLD Kuala Lumpur office      Brisbane retail
    (Figure 5 and Table 3).                                                     Kolkata retail          Seoul offices

                                                                                                                           Bangkok retail
   Three Australian industrial markets have been                                                     Bangkok office
                                                                                                                            Perth offices
                                                                        WARM                           Perth retail
    upgraded from WARM to HOT. This is due to higher                                                                      Sydney industrial
                                                                                                      Mumbai office
    forecast rental growth associated with a buoyant                                                                        Delhi offices
    business investment outlook in 2012. In addition to
                                                                                                                           Bangalore retail
    this, a moderation in inflation has dampened market                    HOT                        Guangzhou retail    Melbourne office
    expectations for further interest rate hikes, with the                                                               Singapore industrial
    government bond yield consequently falling during
    the quarter.                                                    Source: DTZ Research



   The strong performance of the Indian economy in                  Table 3
    late 2010 and early 2011 has led us to upgrade our               Ranking of biggest movers to Q1: change from Q4
    growth outlook for several Indian markets, including
    Delhi offices, which we now rate as a HOT market.                         More attractive                    Less attractive

Guangzhou retail the only downgrade                                            Brisbane retail                  Shanghai offices
                                                                                 Seoul offices                 Hong Kong offices
   As highlighted in Box 2, property prices in several
    Chinese markets have moved upwards in recent                              Auckland offices                  Guangzhou retail
    quarters. In the Guangzhou retail market, yields have                  Gold Coast industrial                 Taipei industrial
    come in to a historic low of 5.8%, down from 6.4% in                       Auckland retail               Hong Kong industrial
    Q4. In addition to reduced income flow, we expect
                                                                    Table 4
    that this will also dampen capital growth, with yields
    expected to edge slightly higher in Guangzhou over              Asia Pacific major market classifications Q1 2011
    the next five years.                                                                                                Degree of over-
                                                                     Sector           Market        Category          valuation (negative
Several core markets still offer good value                                                                         indicates under-priced)
                                                                                   Bengaluru          HOT                   -24%
   As indicated by Table 4, there are many prominent
    markets in Asia offering attractive returns to investors,                      Singapore          HOT                   -17%
                                                                     Office
    with opportunities across all sectors.                          Markets        Shanghai           HOT                    -6%
                                                                                   Tokyo             WARM                    -5%
   Bengaluru, Mumbai and Singapore are expected to
                                                                                   Hong Kong         COLD                   +23%
    experience an upswing in rents in coming years.
    Bengaluru is still in the early stages of its growth into                      Mumbai             HOT                   -12%
    a major IT and business hub, Mumbai is a rapidly                               Singapore          HOT                    -8%
    developing financial centre and Singapore is                     Retail
                                                                    Markets        Beijing           WARM                    -4%
    benefiting from a strong recovery after large falls in
    rents amidst the global downturn.                                              Sydney            WARM                    3%
                                                                                   Shanghai          COLD                    15%
   Upgrades to rental growth forecasts have improved
                                                                                   Singapore          HOT                   -16%
    our fair value assessments for Australian markets,
    while Hong Kong and Taipei remain COLD.                                        Sydney             HOT                    -8%
                                                                    Industrial
                                                                     Markets       Melbourne          HOT                    -7%
                                                                                   Hong Kong         COLD                    36%
                                                                                   Taipei            COLD                    37%
                                                                    Source: DTZ Research


www.dtz.com                                                                                                                                   4
Asia Pacific vs. Global Forecasts




Figure 6                                                                                  Rental growth forecasts upgraded in Asia Pacific
Asia Pacific vs global all-property rental growth                                            Asia Pacific all-property rental growth outperformed
     25%                                                                                      global rental growth in 2010, resuming the normal
     20%                                                                                      pattern of inter-regional growth after two years of
     15%                                                                                      underperformance in 2008-09. Across the region,
                                                                                              rental growth averaged 6.7% compared to 2.6%
     10%
                                                                                              globally.
      5%
      0%                                                                                     Over the forecast period, Asia Pacific rents will
     -5%                                                                                      continue to beat the global rate of growth (Figure 6).
    -10%
                                                                                              Average rental growth during 2011-15 is estimated to
                                                                                              be 3.7% p.a. while global all-property rental growth is
    -15%
                                                                                              forecast to be 2.4% p.a. over the same period. Both
               2006

                       2007

                                  2008

                                         2009

                                                2010

                                                       2011




                                                                     2013

                                                                            2014

                                                                                   2015
                                                              2012




                                                                                              figures have been upgraded from the previous round.
                                                                                              Overall, rental growth going forward is expected to be
                          Asia Pacific                         Global                         less volatile (and also somewhat weaker) than it was
                                                                                              during the pre-recession boom.
Source: DTZ Research

                                                                                          Capital growth opportunities frontloaded in 2011
Figure 7

Asia Pacific vs global all-property capital growth                                           Asia Pacific capital values also recovered strongly in
                                                                                              2010, growing by 15.1% (Figure 7). This is more than
     40%                                                                                      double the growth rate of 7.4% recorded for global
                                                                                              property. Further value increase of 8.2% is expected
     30%
                                                                                              in 2011. However, beyond this year, overall capital
     20%                                                                                      growth becomes increasingly limited. The main
                                                                                              impact comes from a handful of high-value markets.
     10%                                                                                      For example, Hong Kong office and retail (both
       0%                                                                                     among the region’s priciest markets) are trading at
                                                                                              historically low yields at the moment. As interest
     -10%                                                                                     rates move higher, we expect yields in these markets
                                                                                              to normalise in the medium term. This will in turn
     -20%
                                                                                              affect the headline figure for region-wide capital
               2006

                       2007

                                  2008

                                         2009

                                                2010

                                                       2011

                                                              2012

                                                                     2013

                                                                            2014

                                                                                   2015




                                                                                              growth.
                              Asia Pacific                    Global
                                                                                             Average capital value growth during 2011-15 is
Source: DTZ Research                                                                          forecast to be 3.3% p.a., compared to 2.5% p.a.
                                                                                              globally. However, as mentioned, the growth is front-
Figure 8                                                                                      loaded, with barely 2% annual growth forecast for the
Asia Pacific vs global all-property total returns                                             years 2012-15. Capital increases will be most
                                                                                              pronounced in the office sector while growth will be
     50%
                                                                                              weakest in the industrial sector.
     40%

     30%
                                                                                          Asia Pacific returns comparable to global returns

     20%                                                                                     We forecast stable positive returns in the Asia Pacific
     10%                                                                                      region, broadly similar to the returns available from
                                                                                              global property. Over the period, Asia Pacific total
      0%
                                                                                              returns at 9% p.a. just edges out global returns at
    -10%                                                                                      8.8% p.a. (Figure 8). Market fundamentals are
    -20%                                                                                      expected to be more important in determining returns
                                                                                              than the re-emergence of a “wall of money”. The
               2006

                       2007

                                  2008

                                         2009

                                                2010

                                                       2011




                                                                     2013

                                                                            2014

                                                                                   2015
                                                              2012




                                                                                              office sector will once again deliver the strongest
                                                                                              returns at around 10.2% p.a., followed by retail (8.5%
                          Asia Pacific                         Global                         p.a.) and industrial (7.8% p.a.).
Source: DTZ Research


www.dtz.com                                                                                                                                          5
Office Market Forecasts




Rising demand drives strong office rental growth                 Figure 9

                                                                 Prime office rental growth 2011-15: best and worst
   The office occupier market is expected to maintain its
    strong upward momentum in 2011. Following two                       %
                                                                   12
    successive years of declines, overall office rents             10
    experienced a robust recovery in 2010 with 9.2%
                                                                    8
    rental growth. A number of markets have seen further
    gains in the first quarter, and overall rental growth in        6
    2011 is expected to be around 7%. However,                      4
    developers are responding to booming demand, and                2
    future supply levels are likely to be nearly as high as
                                                                    0
    the pre-recession peaks seen during 2007-08. This
    will exert a restraining influence on rental growth in         -2
    the latter half of the forecast period.

   Our top three rental markets over the period are
    Bengaluru, Singapore and Beijing (Figure 9). In                                          Annual average, 2011-15
    keeping with recent forecasts, Indian and Chinese            Source: DTZ Research
    cities account for a large number of the region’s
    growth markets. For instance, in Shanghai and Delhi,         Figure 10
    take-up grew by 67% and 107% respectively in 2010,
    and demand is expected to double again by 2014.              Prime office yield forecasts: selected markets
    Among the established markets, Singapore and                        %
    Hong Kong have emerged resurgent from the                      12
    recession. Competition for space in prime districts            10
    has led to rapidly rising rents in other submarkets,
    e.g. a 10% jump in Hong Kong Island East rents in               8
    Q1. Given enduring space constraints, strong upward
                                                                    6
    pressure on rents will continue. However, rental
    prospects remain poor in Tokyo, with rental growth of           4
    just 1.1% p.a. forecast over the period.
                                                                    2
Yield compression leads to higher emerging market                   0
returns                                                              2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

   There is a clear distinction between prime yield                         Beijing                 Bengaluru             Chennai
    trends in the more developed markets in the region                       Hong Kong               Singapore             Taipei
    and the developing markets. Current yields in Hong           Source: DTZ Research

    Kong, Singapore and Taipei are exceptionally low,
    but this situation is expected to gradually correct itself   Figure 11
    as global interest rates normalize in the medium term.       Prime office total returns 2011-15: best and worst
    Chinese and Indian yields are significantly higher in
                                                                        %
    contrast but as their markets become more mature,              25
    with their strong underlying fundamentals, we expect           20
    yields to decline (Figure 10).
                                                                   15

   Overall office returns in 2011 are forecast to be              10
    17.1%, following on from 19.7% returns in 2010                  5
    (Figure 11). The top three markets over the forecast            0
    period in terms of returns are Bengaluru, Beijing and
                                                                   -5
    Chennai, with Indian markets delivering on average
    16% returns p.a. through 2015. In part this reflects
    higher risk premium for India, but even mature
    markets such as Sydney and Melbourne are
    expected to generate double digit returns on the back                   Income Returns        Capital Growth       Total Returns
    of sustained rental growth and yield compression.
                                                                 Source: DTZ Research


www.dtz.com                                                                                                                            6
Retail Market Forecasts




Figure 12                                                              Indian cities dominate retail rental rankings
Prime retail rental growth 2011-15: best and worst
                                                                          Prime retail rents increased by 5.9% in Asia Pacific in
    %                                                                      2010, and the outlook remains positive over the
  10
   9                                                                       forecast period. Economic growth is driving
   8                                                                       employment and wage gains, while rising asset
   7                                                                       prices provide a further boost to household wealth.
   6                                                                       Consumer spending is forecast to grow by 4-5% p.a.
   5                                                                       in South East Asia in the medium term, while the
   4
   3
                                                                           figure is double that in India and China. The
   2                                                                       emergence of a mass middle class (estimated to be
   1                                                                       300 million strong in China alone) is the engine of the
   0                                                                       formal retail sector in the latter countries.

                                                                          India takes six of the top seven spots in the rental
                                                                           tables, led by Bengaluru with growth of 9.2% p.a.
                             Annual average, 2011-15                       during 2011-15 (Figure 12). The sole non-Indian
                                                                           market is Chengdu, recording 6.4% average growth.
Source: DTZ Research
                                                                           The supply of prime retail stock in Indian cities,
Figure 13
                                                                           although rising steadily, is lagging behind demand.
                                                                           New shopping centres continue to redefine the prime
Prime retail yield forecasts: selected markets                             market upwards. Thus rents in Bengaluru jumped by
        %
                                                                           10% in Q1, and in Hyderabad by 5.5%. At the other
  12                                                                       end, Auckland and Bangkok are among the most
                                                                           sluggish retail markets in the region.
  10

    8                                                                  Divergent yield trends

    6                                                                  As with offices, retail yields show diverging trends
    4
                                                                          between developed and developing markets. Hong
                                                                          Kong is the most expensive retail market in Asia, with
    2                                                                     yields falling as low as 2% (Figure 13). This is an
                                                                          unsustainable level, driven largely by short-term
    -
                                                                          trading by private money. Over the period, we expect
        2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015                 that yields will move out again in Hong Kong (and to
                Bengaluru            Chennai               Delhi          a lesser extent in Shanghai and Melbourne).
                Hong Kong            Melbourne             Shanghai       Regional interest rates are heading upwards, putting
Source: DTZ Research                                                      pressure on property yields. On the other hand,
                                                                          Indian retail yields are fairly high but heading
Figure 14                                                                 downwards. Most Indian retail markets trade between
                                                                          9-11% at the moment. With strong rental growth
Prime retail total returns 2011-15: best and worst
                                                                          prospects and greater market maturity and liquidity,
            %                                                             we expect retail yields to fall to 8-9% by 2015.
    25
    20
                                                                       Hong Kong overpriced, negative returns forecast
    15
    10                                                                    Indian markets dominate the returns tables with their
        5                                                                  combination of high income yields, forecast capital
        0                                                                  growth, and rental growth (Figure 14). Average
    -5                                                                     returns in Indian retail are expected to be about
                                                                           17.8% p.a. compared to 8.5% p.a. for overall Asia
   -10
                                                                           Pacific retail. At the other end of the table, poor
                                                                           prospects for capital appreciation will hold back
                                                                           returns. In the case of Hong Kong, we expect capital
                                                                           declines of -7.6% p.a. during the forecast period, with
            Income Returns        Capital Growth       Total Returns       the main impact concentrated in 2012-13. Forecast
Source: DTZ Research                                                       returns in Hong Kong is therefore negative at -5% p.a.

www.dtz.com                                                                                                                      7
Industrial Market Forecasts




Rental prospects strongest in Singapore, Australia            Figure 15

                                                              Prime industrial rental growth 2011-15: best & worst
   With the global economy in recovery, prospects for
    Asia Pacific industrial are better than they have been          %
    in some time. The US, the region’s biggest trade            4

    partner, is expected to post strong growth over the
                                                                3
    next couple of years, and intra-regional trade ties are
    also more robust. The long-range forecast for export
                                                                2
    growth in traditional trading powerhouses like Taiwan,
    Singapore and South Korea lies between 7-9%,
                                                                1
    although during the recent recovery, growth rates
    have been much higher, between 15% and 25%.
                                                                0

   Singapore, a key hub in the regional trading network,
    is expected to record the best rental performance
    over the forecast period, at 3.6% p.a. (Figure 15).
    The key Australian ports of Brisbane and Melbourne                                       Annual average, 2011-15
    are also expected to outperform, with average rental
                                                              Source: DTZ Research
    growth over 3% p.a. Growth in Australia, partly driven
    by demand for its commodities, is on an upward            Figure 16
    trajectory. The weakest performer among our
    forecast markets is Hong Kong. Industrial demand is       Prime industrial yield forecasts: selected markets
    being undercut by cheaper locations in the Pearl                  %
    River Delta (e.g. Shenzhen, Guangzhou) while                 10
    scarcity of land is resulting in higher value usage           9
    replacing industrial space. Overall, the Hong Kong            8
                                                                  7
    rental growth trend is flat.
                                                                  6
                                                                  5
Mixed prospects for yields                                        4
                                                                  3
   Australian industrial yields are expected to decline          2
    gradually over the next five years, with compression          1
                                                                  0
    of 50-75 bps in most markets (Figure 16). Yields are
    still elevated in the aftermath of the recession-driven          2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
    correction. In contrast, Hong Kong and Taipei                            Brisbane                Hong Kong             Melbourne
    industrial yields have reached historically low levels                   Shanghai                Sydney                Taipei
    and are expected to move out again over the period.
                                                              Source: DTZ Research
    Fundamentals in Taipei are robust, but pricing in
    Hong Kong lacks support from the occupier market.         Figure 17

Australian markets lead the total returns tables              Prime industrial total returns 2011-15: best & worst
                                                                        %
                                                                16
   Overall total returns are expected to average 7.8%          14
    p.a. over the next five years. The Australian markets       12
                                                                10
    take all the top places, led by Brisbane with annual         8
    returns of 13.5% (Figure 17). Returns are driven             6
    primarily by high income returns, supported by               4
    steady rental gains. Singapore also delivers double          2
                                                                 -
    digit returns, while Hong Kong and Taipei are among         -2
    the region’s underperformers. Income returns are            -4
    weak thanks to elevated prices; moreover, softening         -6
    yields will result in net capital declines in both
    markets over the forecast period. Returns in Hong
    Kong are forecast to be 1.8% p.a., and 1.1% p.a. in
    Taipei.                                                                 Income Returns        Capital Growth       Total Returns

                                                              Source: DTZ Research



www.dtz.com                                                                                                                            8
Economic Drivers




Figure 18                                                                       Risk factors to growth are increasing
Asia Pacific GDP growth forecasts
                                                                                   Asia Pacific output grew by 6.8% in 2010, the fastest
        %                                                                           rate of GDP growth in more than two decades. This
  20
                                                                                    provides solid evidence of the region’s healthy
  15                                                                                recovery from the financial crisis. Going forward,
                                                                                    growth prospects remain solid but there are a
  10                                                                                number of risks, including commodity price spikes,
                                                                                    political unrest and natural disasters. The region is
    5
                                                                                    expected to record average growth of 5.2% p.a. over
    0                                                                               the next five years, well ahead of the US (3.2%) and
                                                                                    Europe (2.2%).
   -5
                                                                                   The strongest growth is forecast in the emerging
  -10                                                                               giants China and India, at an annual average of 8.7%
            China          India   Singapore Korea         Australia    Japan       and 8.4% respectively (Figure 18). Elsewhere, the
                                                                                    recovery is maintaining its momentum and even
            2009            2010           2011        2012            2013
                                                                                    accelerating in key exporting nations such as
Source: Oxford Economics                                                            Australia and South Korea. Both will experience
                                                                                    significantly stronger growth in 2012 on the back of a
Figure 19                                                                           global recovery in full swing. The key concern is
Asia Pacific consumption growth forecasts                                           Japan, where the natural disasters of March have
                                                                                    combined to wipe out any prospect of economic
       %
  10                                                                                growth this year. However, the consensus view is
   9                                                                                that the impact of the disasters on Japan’s medium
   8                                                                                term growth prospects will be limited.
   7
   6                                                                            Consumption and exports show strong recovery
   5
   4                                                                               The consumer outlook remains strong across Asia
   3
   2
                                                                                    Pacific. Unemployment in Australia, Taiwan and
   1                                                                                Korea is headed back to cyclical lows, while wage
   0                                                                                growth in China is running at double digits. Spending
                                                                                    is expected to be strongest in China and India,
                                                                                    growing at an annual rate of 8-10% (Figure 19). The
                                                                                    vast expansion of the middle class in both countries
                                          2011-15                                   will continue to support retail sales. Consumption in
Source: Oxford Economics
                                                                                    the other major economies is forecast to grow at a
                                                                                    more moderate pace of 3.5%-4.5%, with the rapidly
Figure 20                                                                           aging economy of Japan a significant exception.

Asia Pacific inflation forecasts                                                   Another key driver of regional growth is exports.
                                                                                    These too experienced a sharp V-shaped rebound in
     %
    7                                                                               2010, growing at an average rate of 25% in China,
    6                                                                               Japan and Taiwan. However, export growth is
    5                                                                               expected to fall back to more sustainable levels.
    4
                                                                                Inflation worries persist across region
    3
    2
    1
                                                                                   The key worry for many policymakers is inflation.
    0                                                                               This is being fuelled by commodity prices as well as
   -1                                                                               capacity constraints. The Chinese government in
   -2                                                                               particular has made inflation fighting a top priority,
       2006     2007       2008    2009     2010    2011   2012    2013             using a mix of higher interest rates, higher reserve
                                                                                    ratios and price controls. Nonetheless, inflation will
                                                                                    climb higher in both China and the region in 2011
              Asia Pacific                China                   Korea
              Singapore                   Taiwan                                    (Figure 20). Although consensus forecasts predict a
                                                                                    fall thereafter, significant uncertainty remains with
Source: Oxford Economics                                                            respect to the inflation outlook.

www.dtz.com                                                                                                                                  9
Disclaimer
              This report should not be relied upon as a basis for entering into transactions without
              seeking specific, qualified, professional advice. Whilst facts have been rigorously
              checked, DTZ can take no responsibility for any damage or loss suffered as a result of
              any inadvertent inaccuracy within this report. Information contained herein should not,
              in whole or part, be published, reproduced or referred to without prior approval. Any
              such reproduction should be credited to DTZ.


              © DTZ June 2011




www.dtz.com

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DTZ Foresight Asia Pacific Fair Value Report (Q1 2011)

  • 1. DTZ Foresight Asia Pacific Fair Value Q1 2011 Increasing opportunities 1  The DTZ Fair Value Index™ (FVI) score for Asia Pacific has risen to 65 from 1 June 2011 57 in Q4 2010 (Figure 1). All sector scores have been upgraded, with the office score moving from 60 to 67, retail from 55 to 62, and industrial recording the biggest jump from 50 to 65. Contents  The rental outlook remains strong for Asia Pacific property, with robust Overview 1 demand driving rental growth. Yields, still elevated in the aftermath of the Fair Value Index 2 downturn, will experience compression in a majority of markets. This creates Asia Pacific market opportunities for investors, albeit within a limited timeframe. classifications 3 Asia Pacific vs global forecasts 5  Particularly in India, China and Australia, investors have a choice of high- Office market forecasts 6 yield, high-growth markets available at attractive prices. Elsewhere in the Retail market forecasts 7 region, investors need to be more selective as underlying fundamentals in Industrial market forecasts 8 some sector-locations do not justify prices. Economic Drivers 9  The strong performance of the Indian economy in late 2010 and early 2011 has led us to upgrade our growth outlook for several Indian markets, including Delhi offices, which we now rate as a HOT market. Out of the 14 office and Authors retail markets in India, 10 are ranked as HOT. Among other non-core locations, industrial markets in Australia and second-tier offices in China Ben Burston provide bargains through strong growth forecasts in rents and values. Forecasting & Strategy Research +44 (0)20 3296 2296  Both domestic and foreign investors have targeted prime properties in core ben.burston@dtz.com locations, often driving prices beyond fair value. Hong Kong is the most prominent Asia Pacific market to have experienced this, with all three sectors Zubaer Mahboob ranked as COLD. Forecasting & Strategy Research +44 (0)20 3296 2312  Other established markets such as Tokyo and Sydney are rated as WARM zubaer.mahboob@dtz.com and can still offer worthwhile opportunities. Singapore is a core location that has experienced a very strong turnaround since the recession, with all three sectors rated as HOT and all included in the region’s top 20 sector-locations. Contacts David Green-Morgan Figure 1 Head of Asia Pacific Research Changes in Asia Pacific Fair Value Index scores – Q4 to Q1 +61 (0)2 8243 9913 david.green-morgan@dtz.com DTZ Fair Value Index Score 57 65 60 67 100% Tony McGough 90% Global Head of Forecasting & 80% 21 11 28 14 Strategy Research 70% +44 (0)20 3296 2314 60% tony.mcgough@dtz.com 50% 40% 27 14 Hans Vrensen 23 12 30% Global Head of Research 20% +44 (0)20 3296 2159 10% 13 10 5 hans.vrensen@dtz.com 4 0% All property All property Offices Q4 Offices Q1 Q4 Q1 Cold Warm Hot Source: DTZ Research www.dtz.com 1
  • 2. Fair Value Index Asia Pacific Fair Value Index score sits at 65 in Q1  Our Fair Value analysis for Q1 2011 concludes that 2011 there are currently 28 HOT markets, up from 21 in Q4 2010, while the number of COLD markets has TM  The DTZ Fair Value Index score for Asia Pacific fallen from 13 to 10 (Table 2). stands at 65, reflecting broadly attractive investment conditions across the region (Table 1). Table 2 Asia Pacific (APAC) market classifications Q1 2011 Table 1 Change Asia Pacific Fair Value Index scores Q1 2011 HOT Change COLD since markets since Q4 markets Q1 2011 Q4 2010 Q4 APAC all- Asia Pacific all-property 65 57 28 ▲ 10 ▼ property Asia Pacific office 67 60 APAC office 14 ▲ 4 ▼ Asia Pacific retail 62 55 Australia all- Asia Pacific industrial 65 50 7 ▲ 1 ▼ property Global all-property 50 53 China all- 7 - 2 - Global office 45 47 property Global retail 56 60 India all-property 10 ▲ 1 - Global industrial 53 53 Other APAC all- 4 ▲ 6 ▼ Source: DTZ Research property Source: DTZ Research  All sector scores have been upgraded this quarter, led by the industrial sector from 50 to 65, where  As the index scores indicate, we retain the view that upwards revisions to rental growth forecasts and a investors in the region taking a medium to long term fall in bond yields has improved the fair value view can access several high yielding and high classification of several Australian markets. growth markets at a discount relative to pricing elsewhere. This is reflected in the favourable findings  The Asia Pacific region continues to compare for China, India and Australia. favourably with the other global regions, with investors set to benefit from stronger rental growth  There are, however, several COLD markets where associated with a more positive economic backdrop we consider that pricing has moved out of line with than in the United States or Europe. underlying fundamentals, so investors need to be selective with their approach. Box 1: Guide to the DTZ Fair Value Index™ The DTZ Fair Value Index™ is intended to provide investors with insight into the relative attractiveness of current pricing in global commercial property markets. Fair Value Index scores reflect the proportion of HOT and COLD markets, with higher scores implying Index Pages 2-3 more HOT markets. Markets are categorised by comparing expected and required returns. Markets Fair Value estimated to be more than 5% under-priced are classified HOT; markets more than Page 4 Classifications 5% over-priced are classified as COLD; and, markets between this range are classified as WARM. Property Forecasts Pages 5-8 The DTZ Fair Value Index™ is a forward-looking index based on econometric forecasts incorporating local economic drivers and local market Economic Forecasts Page 9 knowledge. For further information on the methodology used for classifying different markets and calculating Fair Value Index scores, see the TM DTZ Research report: DTZ Fair Value Index Methodology: Solid Foundations for Future Returns. www.dtz.com 2
  • 3. Asia Pacific Market Classifications Figure 2 Global divergence widens in Q1 Regional Fair Value Index scores: Q1 2011  The increase in the Asia Pacific score has widened DTZ Fair Value Index Score the divergence in global scores (Figure 2). While the 50 32 65 74 28 Asia Pacific score for Q1 has increased, the index 100% 1 10 scores globally and for each region have fallen this 60 80% 28 quarter. In Europe, the lower score reflects a rise in 9 43 22 government bond yields which is raising required 60% returns, while in the United States cap rates are now 74 falling from historically high levels as the market 40% 23 continues its lagged recovery from the downturn. 46 8 10 20% 61  Across the world, investors are targeting prime 10 5 0% property in core locations, driving yield compression Global Europe Asia US UK and dampening the outlook for expected returns in Pacific coming years. While prominent Asian markets such Cold Warm Hot as Hong Kong have experienced this, many non-core Source: DTZ Research Asian markets continue to trade at much higher yields, resulting in a more attractive investment Figure 3 environment for the region overall across all sectors Asia Pacific index scores by sector: Q1 2011 (Figure 3). There are, however, pressures building in China (Box 1). DTZ Fair Value Index Score 65 67 62 65 100% 90% 80% Box 1: Prices rising as yields harden in China 28 14 9 5 70% 60% In response to the global recession, the Chinese authorities 50% implemented significant monetary stimulus to help cushion the 40% 8 impact of the downturn. Since then, however, they have been 23 12 3 slow to withdraw this support, resulting in strong money supply 30% 20% growth and inflationary pressures. 10% 10 4 4 2 0% This excess liquidity is leading to asset price appreciation, All property Offices Retail Industrial including in property which is seeing lower yields as investors Cold Warm Hot compete for prime stock (Figure 4). While we had seen some evidence of this during 2010, the downward pressure on yields Source: DTZ Research has become more apparent in Q1 2011, with prime office yields in Guangzhou, Chengdu and Shenzhen dropping to historic Figure 4 lows. Yield hardening in Chinese office markets In response to these economy-wide pressures, the authorities have continually raised bank reserve ratio requirements in an 9% attempt to slow money supply and lending growth and dampen inflationary pressures. However, given the extent of the excess 8% liquidity in the Chinese financial system, it will take some time to rein in inflation and the pace of growth may moderate as policy 7% tightens. 6% While these markets remain broadly attractive in terms of their fair value classifications owing to strong rental growth, 5% continued yield compression would reduce expected returns by lowering income and capital growth prospects, and could cause us to downgrade our classifications. 4% Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Shanghai Guangzhou Chengdu Shenzhen Source: DTZ Research www.dtz.com 3
  • 4. Asia Pacific Market Classifications Several upgrades due to a firmer rental growth Figure 5 outlook Selected changes in rating – Q4 2010 to Q1 2011  The rise in the Asia Pacific index score in Q1 is the Q1 2011 COLD WARM HOT result of the net balance of 12 changes in market Q4 2010 classifications, with 11 of these being upgrades, eight Taipei office Sydney retail from WARM to HOT and three from COLD to WARM COLD Kuala Lumpur office Brisbane retail (Figure 5 and Table 3). Kolkata retail Seoul offices Bangkok retail  Three Australian industrial markets have been Bangkok office Perth offices WARM Perth retail upgraded from WARM to HOT. This is due to higher Sydney industrial Mumbai office forecast rental growth associated with a buoyant Delhi offices business investment outlook in 2012. In addition to Bangalore retail this, a moderation in inflation has dampened market HOT Guangzhou retail Melbourne office expectations for further interest rate hikes, with the Singapore industrial government bond yield consequently falling during the quarter. Source: DTZ Research  The strong performance of the Indian economy in Table 3 late 2010 and early 2011 has led us to upgrade our Ranking of biggest movers to Q1: change from Q4 growth outlook for several Indian markets, including Delhi offices, which we now rate as a HOT market. More attractive Less attractive Guangzhou retail the only downgrade Brisbane retail Shanghai offices Seoul offices Hong Kong offices  As highlighted in Box 2, property prices in several Chinese markets have moved upwards in recent Auckland offices Guangzhou retail quarters. In the Guangzhou retail market, yields have Gold Coast industrial Taipei industrial come in to a historic low of 5.8%, down from 6.4% in Auckland retail Hong Kong industrial Q4. In addition to reduced income flow, we expect Table 4 that this will also dampen capital growth, with yields expected to edge slightly higher in Guangzhou over Asia Pacific major market classifications Q1 2011 the next five years. Degree of over- Sector Market Category valuation (negative Several core markets still offer good value indicates under-priced) Bengaluru HOT -24%  As indicated by Table 4, there are many prominent markets in Asia offering attractive returns to investors, Singapore HOT -17% Office with opportunities across all sectors. Markets Shanghai HOT -6% Tokyo WARM -5%  Bengaluru, Mumbai and Singapore are expected to Hong Kong COLD +23% experience an upswing in rents in coming years. Bengaluru is still in the early stages of its growth into Mumbai HOT -12% a major IT and business hub, Mumbai is a rapidly Singapore HOT -8% developing financial centre and Singapore is Retail Markets Beijing WARM -4% benefiting from a strong recovery after large falls in rents amidst the global downturn. Sydney WARM 3% Shanghai COLD 15%  Upgrades to rental growth forecasts have improved Singapore HOT -16% our fair value assessments for Australian markets, while Hong Kong and Taipei remain COLD. Sydney HOT -8% Industrial Markets Melbourne HOT -7% Hong Kong COLD 36% Taipei COLD 37% Source: DTZ Research www.dtz.com 4
  • 5. Asia Pacific vs. Global Forecasts Figure 6 Rental growth forecasts upgraded in Asia Pacific Asia Pacific vs global all-property rental growth  Asia Pacific all-property rental growth outperformed 25% global rental growth in 2010, resuming the normal 20% pattern of inter-regional growth after two years of 15% underperformance in 2008-09. Across the region, rental growth averaged 6.7% compared to 2.6% 10% globally. 5% 0%  Over the forecast period, Asia Pacific rents will -5% continue to beat the global rate of growth (Figure 6). -10% Average rental growth during 2011-15 is estimated to be 3.7% p.a. while global all-property rental growth is -15% forecast to be 2.4% p.a. over the same period. Both 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2012 figures have been upgraded from the previous round. Overall, rental growth going forward is expected to be Asia Pacific Global less volatile (and also somewhat weaker) than it was during the pre-recession boom. Source: DTZ Research Capital growth opportunities frontloaded in 2011 Figure 7 Asia Pacific vs global all-property capital growth  Asia Pacific capital values also recovered strongly in 2010, growing by 15.1% (Figure 7). This is more than 40% double the growth rate of 7.4% recorded for global property. Further value increase of 8.2% is expected 30% in 2011. However, beyond this year, overall capital 20% growth becomes increasingly limited. The main impact comes from a handful of high-value markets. 10% For example, Hong Kong office and retail (both 0% among the region’s priciest markets) are trading at historically low yields at the moment. As interest -10% rates move higher, we expect yields in these markets to normalise in the medium term. This will in turn -20% affect the headline figure for region-wide capital 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 growth. Asia Pacific Global  Average capital value growth during 2011-15 is Source: DTZ Research forecast to be 3.3% p.a., compared to 2.5% p.a. globally. However, as mentioned, the growth is front- Figure 8 loaded, with barely 2% annual growth forecast for the Asia Pacific vs global all-property total returns years 2012-15. Capital increases will be most pronounced in the office sector while growth will be 50% weakest in the industrial sector. 40% 30% Asia Pacific returns comparable to global returns 20%  We forecast stable positive returns in the Asia Pacific 10% region, broadly similar to the returns available from global property. Over the period, Asia Pacific total 0% returns at 9% p.a. just edges out global returns at -10% 8.8% p.a. (Figure 8). Market fundamentals are -20% expected to be more important in determining returns than the re-emergence of a “wall of money”. The 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2012 office sector will once again deliver the strongest returns at around 10.2% p.a., followed by retail (8.5% Asia Pacific Global p.a.) and industrial (7.8% p.a.). Source: DTZ Research www.dtz.com 5
  • 6. Office Market Forecasts Rising demand drives strong office rental growth Figure 9 Prime office rental growth 2011-15: best and worst  The office occupier market is expected to maintain its strong upward momentum in 2011. Following two % 12 successive years of declines, overall office rents 10 experienced a robust recovery in 2010 with 9.2% 8 rental growth. A number of markets have seen further gains in the first quarter, and overall rental growth in 6 2011 is expected to be around 7%. However, 4 developers are responding to booming demand, and 2 future supply levels are likely to be nearly as high as 0 the pre-recession peaks seen during 2007-08. This will exert a restraining influence on rental growth in -2 the latter half of the forecast period.  Our top three rental markets over the period are Bengaluru, Singapore and Beijing (Figure 9). In Annual average, 2011-15 keeping with recent forecasts, Indian and Chinese Source: DTZ Research cities account for a large number of the region’s growth markets. For instance, in Shanghai and Delhi, Figure 10 take-up grew by 67% and 107% respectively in 2010, and demand is expected to double again by 2014. Prime office yield forecasts: selected markets Among the established markets, Singapore and % Hong Kong have emerged resurgent from the 12 recession. Competition for space in prime districts 10 has led to rapidly rising rents in other submarkets, e.g. a 10% jump in Hong Kong Island East rents in 8 Q1. Given enduring space constraints, strong upward 6 pressure on rents will continue. However, rental prospects remain poor in Tokyo, with rental growth of 4 just 1.1% p.a. forecast over the period. 2 Yield compression leads to higher emerging market 0 returns 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015  There is a clear distinction between prime yield Beijing Bengaluru Chennai trends in the more developed markets in the region Hong Kong Singapore Taipei and the developing markets. Current yields in Hong Source: DTZ Research Kong, Singapore and Taipei are exceptionally low, but this situation is expected to gradually correct itself Figure 11 as global interest rates normalize in the medium term. Prime office total returns 2011-15: best and worst Chinese and Indian yields are significantly higher in % contrast but as their markets become more mature, 25 with their strong underlying fundamentals, we expect 20 yields to decline (Figure 10). 15  Overall office returns in 2011 are forecast to be 10 17.1%, following on from 19.7% returns in 2010 5 (Figure 11). The top three markets over the forecast 0 period in terms of returns are Bengaluru, Beijing and -5 Chennai, with Indian markets delivering on average 16% returns p.a. through 2015. In part this reflects higher risk premium for India, but even mature markets such as Sydney and Melbourne are expected to generate double digit returns on the back Income Returns Capital Growth Total Returns of sustained rental growth and yield compression. Source: DTZ Research www.dtz.com 6
  • 7. Retail Market Forecasts Figure 12 Indian cities dominate retail rental rankings Prime retail rental growth 2011-15: best and worst  Prime retail rents increased by 5.9% in Asia Pacific in % 2010, and the outlook remains positive over the 10 9 forecast period. Economic growth is driving 8 employment and wage gains, while rising asset 7 prices provide a further boost to household wealth. 6 Consumer spending is forecast to grow by 4-5% p.a. 5 in South East Asia in the medium term, while the 4 3 figure is double that in India and China. The 2 emergence of a mass middle class (estimated to be 1 300 million strong in China alone) is the engine of the 0 formal retail sector in the latter countries.  India takes six of the top seven spots in the rental tables, led by Bengaluru with growth of 9.2% p.a. Annual average, 2011-15 during 2011-15 (Figure 12). The sole non-Indian market is Chengdu, recording 6.4% average growth. Source: DTZ Research The supply of prime retail stock in Indian cities, Figure 13 although rising steadily, is lagging behind demand. New shopping centres continue to redefine the prime Prime retail yield forecasts: selected markets market upwards. Thus rents in Bengaluru jumped by % 10% in Q1, and in Hyderabad by 5.5%. At the other 12 end, Auckland and Bangkok are among the most sluggish retail markets in the region. 10 8 Divergent yield trends 6 As with offices, retail yields show diverging trends 4 between developed and developing markets. Hong Kong is the most expensive retail market in Asia, with 2 yields falling as low as 2% (Figure 13). This is an unsustainable level, driven largely by short-term - trading by private money. Over the period, we expect 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 that yields will move out again in Hong Kong (and to Bengaluru Chennai Delhi a lesser extent in Shanghai and Melbourne). Hong Kong Melbourne Shanghai Regional interest rates are heading upwards, putting Source: DTZ Research pressure on property yields. On the other hand, Indian retail yields are fairly high but heading Figure 14 downwards. Most Indian retail markets trade between 9-11% at the moment. With strong rental growth Prime retail total returns 2011-15: best and worst prospects and greater market maturity and liquidity, % we expect retail yields to fall to 8-9% by 2015. 25 20 Hong Kong overpriced, negative returns forecast 15 10  Indian markets dominate the returns tables with their 5 combination of high income yields, forecast capital 0 growth, and rental growth (Figure 14). Average -5 returns in Indian retail are expected to be about 17.8% p.a. compared to 8.5% p.a. for overall Asia -10 Pacific retail. At the other end of the table, poor prospects for capital appreciation will hold back returns. In the case of Hong Kong, we expect capital declines of -7.6% p.a. during the forecast period, with Income Returns Capital Growth Total Returns the main impact concentrated in 2012-13. Forecast Source: DTZ Research returns in Hong Kong is therefore negative at -5% p.a. www.dtz.com 7
  • 8. Industrial Market Forecasts Rental prospects strongest in Singapore, Australia Figure 15 Prime industrial rental growth 2011-15: best & worst  With the global economy in recovery, prospects for Asia Pacific industrial are better than they have been % in some time. The US, the region’s biggest trade 4 partner, is expected to post strong growth over the 3 next couple of years, and intra-regional trade ties are also more robust. The long-range forecast for export 2 growth in traditional trading powerhouses like Taiwan, Singapore and South Korea lies between 7-9%, 1 although during the recent recovery, growth rates have been much higher, between 15% and 25%. 0  Singapore, a key hub in the regional trading network, is expected to record the best rental performance over the forecast period, at 3.6% p.a. (Figure 15). The key Australian ports of Brisbane and Melbourne Annual average, 2011-15 are also expected to outperform, with average rental Source: DTZ Research growth over 3% p.a. Growth in Australia, partly driven by demand for its commodities, is on an upward Figure 16 trajectory. The weakest performer among our forecast markets is Hong Kong. Industrial demand is Prime industrial yield forecasts: selected markets being undercut by cheaper locations in the Pearl % River Delta (e.g. Shenzhen, Guangzhou) while 10 scarcity of land is resulting in higher value usage 9 replacing industrial space. Overall, the Hong Kong 8 7 rental growth trend is flat. 6 5 Mixed prospects for yields 4 3  Australian industrial yields are expected to decline 2 gradually over the next five years, with compression 1 0 of 50-75 bps in most markets (Figure 16). Yields are still elevated in the aftermath of the recession-driven 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 correction. In contrast, Hong Kong and Taipei Brisbane Hong Kong Melbourne industrial yields have reached historically low levels Shanghai Sydney Taipei and are expected to move out again over the period. Source: DTZ Research Fundamentals in Taipei are robust, but pricing in Hong Kong lacks support from the occupier market. Figure 17 Australian markets lead the total returns tables Prime industrial total returns 2011-15: best & worst % 16  Overall total returns are expected to average 7.8% 14 p.a. over the next five years. The Australian markets 12 10 take all the top places, led by Brisbane with annual 8 returns of 13.5% (Figure 17). Returns are driven 6 primarily by high income returns, supported by 4 steady rental gains. Singapore also delivers double 2 - digit returns, while Hong Kong and Taipei are among -2 the region’s underperformers. Income returns are -4 weak thanks to elevated prices; moreover, softening -6 yields will result in net capital declines in both markets over the forecast period. Returns in Hong Kong are forecast to be 1.8% p.a., and 1.1% p.a. in Taipei. Income Returns Capital Growth Total Returns Source: DTZ Research www.dtz.com 8
  • 9. Economic Drivers Figure 18 Risk factors to growth are increasing Asia Pacific GDP growth forecasts  Asia Pacific output grew by 6.8% in 2010, the fastest % rate of GDP growth in more than two decades. This 20 provides solid evidence of the region’s healthy 15 recovery from the financial crisis. Going forward, growth prospects remain solid but there are a 10 number of risks, including commodity price spikes, political unrest and natural disasters. The region is 5 expected to record average growth of 5.2% p.a. over 0 the next five years, well ahead of the US (3.2%) and Europe (2.2%). -5  The strongest growth is forecast in the emerging -10 giants China and India, at an annual average of 8.7% China India Singapore Korea Australia Japan and 8.4% respectively (Figure 18). Elsewhere, the recovery is maintaining its momentum and even 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 accelerating in key exporting nations such as Source: Oxford Economics Australia and South Korea. Both will experience significantly stronger growth in 2012 on the back of a Figure 19 global recovery in full swing. The key concern is Asia Pacific consumption growth forecasts Japan, where the natural disasters of March have combined to wipe out any prospect of economic % 10 growth this year. However, the consensus view is 9 that the impact of the disasters on Japan’s medium 8 term growth prospects will be limited. 7 6 Consumption and exports show strong recovery 5 4  The consumer outlook remains strong across Asia 3 2 Pacific. Unemployment in Australia, Taiwan and 1 Korea is headed back to cyclical lows, while wage 0 growth in China is running at double digits. Spending is expected to be strongest in China and India, growing at an annual rate of 8-10% (Figure 19). The vast expansion of the middle class in both countries 2011-15 will continue to support retail sales. Consumption in Source: Oxford Economics the other major economies is forecast to grow at a more moderate pace of 3.5%-4.5%, with the rapidly Figure 20 aging economy of Japan a significant exception. Asia Pacific inflation forecasts  Another key driver of regional growth is exports. These too experienced a sharp V-shaped rebound in % 7 2010, growing at an average rate of 25% in China, 6 Japan and Taiwan. However, export growth is 5 expected to fall back to more sustainable levels. 4 Inflation worries persist across region 3 2 1  The key worry for many policymakers is inflation. 0 This is being fuelled by commodity prices as well as -1 capacity constraints. The Chinese government in -2 particular has made inflation fighting a top priority, 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 using a mix of higher interest rates, higher reserve ratios and price controls. Nonetheless, inflation will climb higher in both China and the region in 2011 Asia Pacific China Korea Singapore Taiwan (Figure 20). Although consensus forecasts predict a fall thereafter, significant uncertainty remains with Source: Oxford Economics respect to the inflation outlook. www.dtz.com 9
  • 10. Disclaimer This report should not be relied upon as a basis for entering into transactions without seeking specific, qualified, professional advice. Whilst facts have been rigorously checked, DTZ can take no responsibility for any damage or loss suffered as a result of any inadvertent inaccuracy within this report. Information contained herein should not, in whole or part, be published, reproduced or referred to without prior approval. Any such reproduction should be credited to DTZ. © DTZ June 2011 www.dtz.com