The document discusses cycling safety and how perceptions and social norms can influence safety more than legislation. It notes that "change has to take root in people's minds before it can be legislated." It provides examples from the Netherlands where cycling is very safe and common, compared to the decline in unaccompanied cycling among children in the UK from the 1970s due to fear of traffic and strangers. The document examines how culture and social learning can impact risk, and that legislation may be ineffective or counterproductive if social norms have not changed.

1.
Cycling safety as an obstacle.
Fears, myths and social learning
International Conference: Bike and City
Madrid
9 March 2015
www.john-adams.co.uk
john.adams@ucl.ac.uk
Risk, Freedom, Safety
Debates on cycling safety and mobility in United Kingdom

2. http://www.gov.scot/Resource/Img/316212/0091984.jpg

3. “Change has to take root in people’s minds before it can be legislated.”
Michael Sandel,
What Money Can't Buy: The Moral Limits of Markets
"El cambio tiene que echar raíces en las mentes de la gente
antes de que se pueda legislar".
Google Translate
“The change has to take root in the minds of people before they can
legislate”

4. http://www.iihs.org/news/rss/pr092810.html
Highway Loss Data Institute News Release –
“Texting bans don't reduce crashes; effects are slight crash increases”
The main headline in the Daily Mail reads
“£90 fine if you’re texting at the wheel:
Minister warns of safety crackdown”
If change has not taken root in the minds of texting Californian drivers a la
is unlikely To work, and may be counterproductive.

5. http://www.gov.scot/Resource/Img/316212/0091984.jpg

6. Home time at a Dutch school

8. http://www.bikehub.co.uk/featured-articles/safe-cycling-for-kids-but-not-wrapped-in-cotton-wool/

9. http://hembrow.blogspot.com/2008/08/everyone-cycles.html
http://steco.nl/pages/consumer/index.php?
taal=nl&page=Producten&cid=12&pid=20

10. 0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Road Accident Deaths per Billion Vehicle Kilometers
GB 1950 - 2012
How much can be attributed to:
the work of legislators?
the work of engineers?
change taking root in people's minds?

11. Nigeria's MOST dangerous road
Tues Apr 2 2013
Lagos-Ibadan Expressway

13. Legislation for road safety can be defined as “comprehensive” if the existing
national and sub-national road safety laws include the following key laws:
1) a national speed limit law
2) a national drink-driving law
3) a national motorcycle helmet law
4) a national seat-belt law (front and rear seats)
http://blogs.bmj.com/injury-prevention/2013/04/16/global-progress-towards-comprehensive-legislation-for-road-
safety/
Better laws?

14. y = -0.0225x + 2.0182
R² = 0.99265
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Energy crisis speeds
limits
Log Road Accident deaths per Billion Vehicle
Kilometres
GB 1950-2012
Seat belt law and
introduction of
evidential breath testing

15. 0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Road Accident Deaths: GB 1950 - 2012

16. Cyclist Fatalities GB 1952 - 2013
0
200
400
600
800
1950 1968 1985 2003 2020

17. Log cyclist fatalities GB
1,9
2,15
2,4
2,65
2,9
1950 1968 1985 2003 2020

18. Billion kms cycled GB
0,0
6,0
12,0
18,0
24,0
1950 1968 1985 2003 2020

19. Cyclist fatalities/billion kms GB
0,00
25,00
50,00
75,00
100,00
1950 1968 1985 2003 2020

20. Billion kms cycled GB
0,0
6,0
12,0
18,0
24,0
1950 1968 1985 2003 2020
Cyclist fatalities/billion kms GB
0,00
25,00
50,00
75,00
100,00
1950 1968 1985 2003 2020
Cyclist fatalities/billion kms GB

21. Cycle helmet wearing:
Netherlands, Denmark, Finland, Sweden (EC, 1999); ermany (Pucher and Dijkstra, 2000); UK (Bryan-Brown and Christie, 2001);
USA & France (Paris) (Osberg and Stiles, 1998).
Cyclist deaths:
EU (CIT, 2001); France (Carre, 1995), USA (Pucher and Dijkstra, 2000).
Cycle Percentage of trips:
Flanders cities (ECF, 1997); USA, Canada, France, Italy, Austria (Pucher and Dijkstra, 2000); UK, Norway, Switzerland, Sweden,
Denmark (EC, 1999); Germany (Bracher, 2003); Netherlands (Welleman, 2002)

22. http://s3.amazonaws.com/lcc_production_bucket/files/6239/in_content.JPG?1383761366
Today, the London Cycling Campaign hailed a major success as Mayor Boris
Johnson (pictured above) opened the Dutch-style extension of Cycle
Superhighway 2 from Bow to Stratford

26. A new £51 million sponsorship deal with Santander - £7.25 million per year for seven
years
Boris Bikes go red with Santander deal

30. 68 cm

32. 13 cm

33. 16.5 cm

37. https://aseasyasridingabike.files.wordpress.com/2014/04/screen-shot-2014-04-22-at-23-27-02.png

38. https://aseasyasridingabike.files.wordpress.com/2014/04/screen-shot-2014-04-22-at-23-24-06.png

41. Different kinds of Risk
Perceived
through
science
Perceived
directly
Virtual
risk
Perceived
through
science
Perceived
directly
Virtual
risk
Perceived
through
science
Perceived
directly
Virtual
risk
e.g. climbing
a tree, riding
a bike, driving a car
e.g. cholera: need
a microscope to
see it and a
scientific
training to
understand Scientists don’t
know or cannot
agree: e.g. BSE/vCJD,
global
warming,
low-level
radiation,
pesticide
residues,
HRT, mobile
phones,
passive smoking
….

42. Perception
of risks
Accidents
Propensity to
take risks
Balancing
behaviour
Rewards
The Risk Thermostat

45. Risk and Freedom, p 62, http://john-adams.co.uk/books/

48. Denmark

50. http://www.direct.gov.uk/en/Nl1/Newsroom/DG_072333

51. DfT Celebrates 25th Anniversary of the introduction of seatbelts
On the 31st January 2008, the 25th anniversary of the law change
which made front seatbelt wearing compulsory was celebrated.
PACTS itself was set up by Barry Sheerman MP as part of the fight to
get mandatory seatbelt wearing turned into legislation. Eight years
later it became compulsory for all backseat passengers to use
seatbelts and it is estimated that since the introduction of the first law
change in 1983, seatbelts have prevented 60,000 deaths and over
670,000 serious injuries.
http://www.pacts.org.uk/newsletters.php?id=2

52. “We have just marked the 25th anniversary of the seat-belt law, engineered
through Parliament by our then President, Lord Nugent, a single act of intervention
which has saved 60,000 lives.”
http://www.rospa.com/about/annualreview/Info/review2008.pdf
which has saved 60,000 lives.”

53. http://www.john-adams.co.uk/2009/09/16/seat-belts-again-2/

54. http://john-adams.co.uk/2009/11/05/seat-belts-another-look-at-the-data/

55. Perception
of risks
Accidents
Propensity to
take risks
Balancing
behaviour
Rewards
Risk thermostat with perceptual filters

56. Cultural bias

58. Societal Safety Culture

59. http://www.edwardburtynsky.com/WORKS/Ships/Shipbreaking/Shipbreaking_04.jpg

60. Bangladesh – road fatalities per 100,000 motor vehicles - 6300
UK – road fatalities per 100,000 motor vehicles - 6.2
Global status report on road safety: time for action. (PDF). Geneva: World Health Organization. 2009. ISBN 978-92-4-156384-0.

61. BG LNG Plant, Idku, Egypt
Egypt: road fatalities per 100,000 motor vehicles - 188

66. In 1971 80% of 7 and 8 year old
children got to school
unaccompanied by an adult.
By 1990 it had fallen to 9%.
The parents who let their children
cycle to school alone deserve
praise, not the social services
Fear of traffic and stranger danger

67. “Change has to take root in people’s minds before it can be legislated.”
Michael Sandel,
What Money Can't Buy: The Moral Limits of Markets

69. https://aseasyasridingabike.files.wordpress.com/2014/04/screen-shot-2014-04-22-at-23-27-02.png

70. Home time at a Dutch school

71. Muchas gracias
www.john-adams.co.uk
john.adams@ucl.ac.uk