1. Development is a "wicked problem" that is best solved through an evolutionary process of variation and selection, not direct design. 2. Evolution requires variation, diversity of ideas, and feedback through engagement and selection. 3. For knowledge and development (K4D), this means focusing on building better feedback loops through diversity of ideas, engagement, and open sharing of information to drive learning, rather than trying to directly design solutions.

1. Knowledge
& Development
Presentation at UNICEF
Owen Barder
January 17, 2011
Blog: www.owen.org/blog
Twitter: @owenbarder
Podcast: developmentdrums.org
Email: owen@devinit.org

2. Roadmap
 Why is knowledge important for development?
 Development as a form of evolution
 What does this mean for K4D?

3. Income per head since 1500
30000 20 x
25000 Africa Europe USA
20000
15000
11 x
10000
5000
3x
0
1500 1600 1700 1820 1870 1913 1950 1973 1998
$US in 1990 prices – source Maddison (OECD)

4. Global inequality since 1820
Gini Coefficient
60
50
40
30
20
10
1820 1870 1890 1900 1913 1929 1938 1952 1960 1978 1988 1993 2000
Source: Branko Milankovic World’s Apart

5. Knowledge diffusion
enables the poor
to catch up.
Adoption of technology accounts for
multiples of income of between 6 and 26
Comin, Easterly & Gong, AEJ 2010

6. Development is complex
Some problems are so complex that
you have to be highly intelligent and
well informed just to be undecided
about them.
Laurence J. Peter
From Ben Ramalingam www.aidontheedge.info

7. Definition of “wicked problems”
 Difficult to define clearly.
 Many interdependencies, multi-causal.
 Unforeseen consequences.
 Often not stable.
 No clear solution.
 Socially complex.
 Not the responsibility of any single organization.
 Involve changing behaviour.
Original idea: Rittel, Webber (1973 – urban planning); this definition: Australian Public Service Commission (2007)

8. All successful
complex systems are
the result of evolution.

9. Steve Jones, evolutionary biologist

10. 1
“Almost impossible
problems” are solved by
evolution not design

11. 2
Evolution requires
variation and selection

12. “Almost impossible problem”
solved by evolution not design
Evolution requires
variation and selection

13. 1 Development is a
“wicked problem”
2 Wicked problems are solved
by evolution not design
Evolution requires
3 variation and selection

14. What’s this got to do
with knowledge?

15. • Evolution occurs through variation and
selection of information (e.g. genes)
• Variation & selection means
• Diversity
• Engagement
• Feedback
• Learning

16. e.g. Report cards in Uganda
 Randomised trial in clinics
 NGO report cards & public meetings
 Impressive results
 Waiting time decreased
 Doctor and nurse absenteeism plummeted
 Clinics got cleaner; fewer drugs stolen
 40-50% more children vaccinated
 33% fewer children died under the age of five
 Saved 550 lives (in area of 55,000 households).
Björkman, Martina & Svensson, Jakob, 2007. "Power to the People: Evidence from a
Randomized Field Experiment of a Community-Based Monitoring Project in Uganda,".

17. As change-makers
we should not try to
design a better world.
We should make better
feedback loops.

18. What does this mean for
K4D?

19. Development happens
when ideas have sex.

24. Expired Tired Wired
Secrecy Communications Engagement
Explain Consult Crowd-source
Protect information Collect information Connect people
Irrelevant information Relevant information Information in context
Private databases Public databases Open data standards
Inappropriate technology Appropriate technology Multiple technologies
Press releases Websites Infomediaries
No evaluation Top down evaluation User feedback
Information silos Search engines Social filtering
Do nothing Do it all Start, then iterate
Technology stupid Technology driven Technology supported
Bad data Quality control A thousand eyes

25. Conclusions
 Don’t try to design a better world:
build better feedback loops
 Development happens when ideas
have sex
 K4D should focus more on diversity,
engagement, feedback and learning

26. Blog: www.owen.org/blog
Twitter: @owenbarder
Podcast: developmentdrums.org
Email: owen@devinit.org